Eric Janson wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:34 pm I'm writing this from Dubai.

Numerous events cancelled/postponed and the shopping Malls are a lot emptier.

Emirates has just asked staff to take paid/unpaid leave on a voluntary basis. Most flights to/from Iran cancelled.

Global travel is slowing. N America will be next.

This a multi-year Black Swan event imho.

I do wish people would do some research - this virus is nothing like the Flu.

complexintentions wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:31 am I hope you're right. Hopefully AC losing 28% of its stock value and $3.9 billion of market cap is only a "buying opportunity".

Just saying that it may take more than shifting a few tails around to make that up by June. Especially if pax loads and yields fall by any appreciable amount, which is hardly unforeseeable.

As to perception, it's everything. A threat doesn't have to be that dire, or even real, for people to be afraid. People aren't rational. They see some scary videos on YouTube and that's it. Then they go out to carry on dying by the millions of preventable heart diseases.

Air Canada was the world's best airline stock two months ago. Now it's the worst.

ayseven wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:43 pm Interesting, because he didn't used to like airlines.

CL-Skadoo! wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:57 pm
Spread your tiny wings millennial falcons, you will endure!

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:59 pm UK’s 3rd largest airline Flybe Airlines has just ceased operations due to Corona virus:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguar ... -to-follow

complexintentions wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

complexintentions wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)

digits_ wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am

complexintentions wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)

That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.

complexintentions wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic


*The End Of The World As We Know It