Airlines must adapt to survive

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Gilles Hudicourt
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Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by Gilles Hudicourt »

The full consequences that the Covid-19 pandemic will have on the aviation industry are not well known at this stage of the crisis. What is certain is that there will be widespread consequences, and things are going to change. No facet of this industry will come out unscathed, whether manufacturers, suppliers, service providers, airlines, training facilities or airports.

What is also certain is that many airlines will go into receivership this year. This summer. All those that fail to adapt. Life will eventually come back to normal, as it always does. But it will not happen fast and fast is what most airlines need to survive.

The companies, airlines and others, that take drastic measures to put themselves on long term survival operational mode will have better chances of weathering the crisis than those that just close the hatches for a few weeks, in the hope things will come back to normal soon. Normal will come back gradually, but not fast enough for many.
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CL-Skadoo!
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by CL-Skadoo! »

We've clearly been lulled to sleep by some of the best years our industry has ever seen. There is nothing new happening right now, the scale is a bit larger and the foe is a bit harder to vanquish.

Aviation has always required the ability to be dynamic and adaptable. We've endured terrorism, gas shortages, various recessions and downturns, viruses, cold wars, world wars, airliners shot down, workforce issues, abysmal safety records, and accidents that shook the public's faith in air travel to its core (this could be a Billy Joel song if I keep ranting here).

Yet here we were in January, all fat dumb and happy, at the top of the mountain, the green and ignorant thought it would never end. Now we're headed into the valley once again, however, it might look deeper and darker than you're used to. Not so, says I. Aviation has never been for the squeamish, it has been for the dynamic since day one and the people that have succeeded were the ones versatile enough to get the job done, find new ways of thinking and start climbing the mountain once again.

There is nothing new to this story. Aviation always takes the hits, gets knocked down and gets right back up again (now Chumbawumba creeps in). If you were bereft of passion, adaptability and looking to view life from the bleachers, none of you would be in this industry.That's why I have faith in it.

We're about to start picking up the pieces and finding new ways of looking at the world. Aviation will be the ahead of that curve. This is due to our driven/talented workforce and our constant exposure to calamity. This is purely what we do.

Aviation just needs to do one thing: keep being aviation. As many lumps as she's taken, she always comes back.
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Eric Janson
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by Eric Janson »

While nobody can predict what the future holds - there are going to be opportunities on the other side of this.

- Large numbers of aircraft available at cheap lease rates
- Large numbers of experienced people available
- Low fuel prices

I'm sure there will be new Airlines starting up to fill demand.
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Big Pistons Forever
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

35 years in commercial aviation for me and this will the fourth time I have seen the industry crater. I remember in the early 1990's operators asking for ATPL with 5000 TT and 2000 MPIC for a Navajo Captain and they were getting multiple applicants. It took 5 years before things really started to open up. I expect a similar time line for this industry reset.

The only good news is the demographic bulge isn't going to stop. In 5 years a significant portion of the pilot ranks are going to age out or be old enough that they will not have enough time left to pick up their career. Plus a lot of younger folks are going to get established in a non aviation career and not going to want to risk it all to take up with the cruel mistress that is aviation.

The good news is all of the pilots that I knew who were trying to make a go of flying as a career in the 1990's doldrums, where flying was a passion for them and all they really wanted to do, well all eventually made it and had a successful career. The poseurs and people who were not really serious all dropped out.

I expect a similar dynamic today.
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ayseven
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by ayseven »

It is really too bad that this had to happen; there are a lot of nice people who have been dodging bullets, and going straight to good jobs, that will find life quite hard all of a sudden. People are tougher than they think. This is just another downturn, regardless of the doomsday scenarios out there.
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JoeShithe
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by JoeShithe »

Life in South Korea is slowly returning to normal. Bars and restaurants are open, people are out and working in Seoul.
All with proper precautions of course.

They were very well prepared for this with an ample supply of testing, sanitizer, wipes and masks made in Korea. There is also sufficient capacity in the health care system to cope with a second wave if required and there is a monitoring app you are required to self check and report every day.

They have been planning for a pandemic since SARS ‘03 and knowing the next one would probably be coming from across the Yellow Sea ( Snowflakes and SJWs.. That’s the actual name of the body of water between the Korean Peninsula and mainland China. Named so because of its shallow depth and sandy floor which gives the body of water a yellowish colour with the tide changes and frequent high winds...) Anyway they were very well prepared.

You can agree or disagree with the methods but it’s the safest place in the world right now and confidence in the system is allowing for an orderly, measured return to normal life.

https://simpleflying.com/korean-air-china-may/
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GoinVertical
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by GoinVertical »

Big Pistons Forever wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:44 am...The poseurs and people who were not really serious all dropped out.

I expect a similar dynamic today.
This, no doubt, will be a benefit. A lot of people just warming the seat that have no real interest in what they're doing over the past 2 or 3 years...
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Inverted2
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by Inverted2 »

One benefit could be the end of 250 hr F/O going straight from flight school to the airlines.
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Gilles Hudicourt
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by Gilles Hudicourt »

There has been a steady stream of Air Canada and Rouge aircraft going to Pinal Airport Park, (Marana) Arizona in the last few days. E190s, A319s, A320s, A321s, B767s, B737s and B777s. I counted over 20 in the last few days.....

Some are going to get scrapped, no doubt, but most are going there for storage.

https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-fir ... etirement/

Any other Canadian companies flying their aircraft to long or medium term storage facilities ?
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by dhc# »

This link has a lot of videos showing where fleets are being parked around the world.

https://twitter.com/breakingavnews
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Inverted2 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 pm One benefit could be the end of 250 hr F/O going straight from flight school to the airlines.
How is that a benefit?
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dialdriver
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by dialdriver »

JohnnyHotRocks wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:58 am
Inverted2 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 pm One benefit could be the end of 250 hr F/O going straight from flight school to the airlines.
How is that a benefit?
Said the 250 hr F/O.
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JohnnyHotRocks
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Lol been flying since 1991 thanks
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vermont
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by vermont »

dialdriver wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:11 am
JohnnyHotRocks wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:58 am
Inverted2 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 pm One benefit could be the end of 250 hr F/O going straight from flight school to the airlines.
How is that a benefit?
Said the 250 hr F/O.
You realize attitudes like yours actually hurt your cause right?
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telex
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by telex »

Gilles Hudicourt wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:06 am The full consequences that the Covid-19 pandemic will have on the aviation industry are not well known at this stage of the crisis. What is certain is that there will be widespread consequences, and things are going to change. No facet of this industry will come out unscathed, whether manufacturers, suppliers, service providers, airlines, training facilities or airports.

What is also certain is that many airlines will go into receivership this year. This summer. All those that fail to adapt. Life will eventually come back to normal, as it always does. But it will not happen fast and fast is what most airlines need to survive.

The companies, airlines and others, that take drastic measures to put themselves on long term survival operational mode will have better chances of weathering the crisis than those that just close the hatches for a few weeks, in the hope things will come back to normal soon. Normal will come back gradually, but not fast enough for many.
You seem to be speaking full liberal here. I have no idea what you said.

I read it to my wife. She said he must have been drunk when he wrote that.
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by mixturerich »

JohnnyHotRocks wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:58 am
Inverted2 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 pm One benefit could be the end of 250 hr F/O going straight from flight school to the airlines.
How is that a benefit?
Safety (obviously).
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by ayseven »

Not to go off topic, but I would bet my house that very few, if any, people went to the regionals with 250 Hrs in the last year or two. I am pretty sure they figured out that wasn't a great idea.

Europe is very different, from beginning to end. If people want to bring that up, I would ask them to look at the entrance requirements to their flight schools. Ditto Asia. I am pretty sure they also have firm procedures in place at the airlines, to train up to the standard for day to day operations. The 14 ATPL exams are just the tip of the iceberg for them. Basically, it costs a fortune to get somebody up to speed, and in Canada, that looks like the job of the captain alone. I could be completely wrong on this, but I doubt it. You do have to compare apples to apples.

I am 100% sure though, that the 250 Hr people will be going straight to airlines one day in Canada, just because nobody has opportunity to gain hours, but not soon.
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by digits_ »

ayseven wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:25 am

Europe is very different, from beginning to end. If people want to bring that up, I would ask them to look at the entrance requirements to their flight schools. Ditto Asia. I am pretty sure they also have firm procedures in place at the airlines, to train up to the standard for day to day operations. The 14 ATPL exams are just the tip of the iceberg for them. Basically, it costs a fortune to get somebody up to speed, and in Canada, that looks like the job of the captain alone. I could be completely wrong on this, but I doubt it. You do have to compare apples to apples.
Your remarks about Europe are only valid for the airline sponsored and/or organized training.

Plenty of flying schools with no or very low entrance requirements which also create 250 hour pilots that eventually end up at an airline. The training is not much different. The theoretical aspect is a bit harder for cpl and atpl. It is also more expensive but that doesn't affect the quality or level of instruction. However, only 10 percent ish of those pilots find a job. Airlines can be very picky and the hiring selection process is much more thorough.
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by rudder »

ayseven wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:25 am Not to go off topic, but I would bet my house that very few, if any, people went to the regionals with 250 Hrs in the last year or two. I am pretty sure they figured out that wasn't a great idea.
I would take that bet.

Over the last 12-24 months, dozens if not 100+ went from from college/university programs to some regionals (Jazz) and even to Sunwing.

With pilot layoffs coming and passenger airlines reevaluating capacity to match depressed demand, that path will be closed for the foreseeable future lasting possibly in to 2022.

Those 250 hour pilots will now be competing with furloughed airline pilots in the non-airline market for limited opportunities. Attrition and growth was driving the first job opportunities for new pilots. That attrition, at all levels of aviation in Canada, has come to a standstill and will be extremely slow to manifest itself again. As for growth, the big question now is how many years for flying levels to return to 2019 levels.
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Re: Airlines must adapt to survive

Post by mbav8r »

ayseven wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:25 am Not to go off topic, but I would bet my house that very few, if any, people went to the regionals with 250 Hrs in the last year or two. I am pretty sure they figured out that wasn't a great idea.

Europe is very different, from beginning to end. If people want to bring that up, I would ask them to look at the entrance requirements to their flight schools. Ditto Asia. I am pretty sure they also have firm procedures in place at the airlines, to train up to the standard for day to day operations. The 14 ATPL exams are just the tip of the iceberg for them. Basically, it costs a fortune to get somebody up to speed, and in Canada, that looks like the job of the captain alone. I could be completely wrong on this, but I doubt it. You do have to compare apples to apples.

I am 100% sure though, that the 250 Hr people will be going straight to airlines one day in Canada, just because nobody has opportunity to gain hours, but not soon.
Not sure where you’ve been but you are a little out of touch with what’s been going on.
J@#z has been hiring straight from college for the last several years, in fact the first group of eight straight from school was back in 2007 but for the last three or four years there has been many, in the hundreds. We initially were only taking from Seneca, then that expanded to eight schools and then last year there was an “experiment”, at least one from a flying club in Quebec.
We have had upgrades who Jazz was their first and only job, in about three years and some PIC under supervision they got ATPLs.
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