Ok, let me try to understand.whipline wrote:Gonnabeapilot is absolutely correct. Rudder all things being equal the quality of life will diminish for the bottom part of both the Captain and first officer lists. If we bring over 100 pilots under wet leases as opposed to FLVC'S, the number of foreign pilots stays the same.
In the fall of 2012, SW had a permanent list of approximately 150 pilots and added 20 seasonal FO's. These 170 pilots were supplemented by foreign pilots to staff 29 aircraft for the 2012-2013 winter season. In the spring of 2013, SW converted the 20 seasonal pilots to permanent and then added another 30 permanent pilots to bring the permanent SW list up to just over 200 pilots. This was enough pilots to meet the wet lease staffing obligations of 7 aircraft deployed overseas and an additional 6 aircraft in North America.
For winter 2013-2014 SW is planning on approximately 32 aircraft. SW is adding approximately 40 seasonal pilots bringing the SW component to approximately 240 pilots. This seems to be a staffing formula that sees SW responsible to fully staff about 16 aircraft through the winter season. SW will once again supplement the remaining positions using foreign pilots under TFWP/FLVC and wet leases. Best guess is this represents about another 240 pilots considering the high daily utilization rates.
Any arrangement that sees SW compelled to staff incremental airframes using CDN pilots is a good thing isn't it? The SW list will grow beyond 240 and everybody on that list moves up. And unless SW has plans to increase the winter fleet beyond 32 airframes, then each additional CDN pilot added will mean one less foreign pilot will be required.
If TFWP/FLVC staffing eventually reaches zero due to gov't edict and reciprocal proportional wet lease is the only way to get foreign pilots in Canada then one could reasonably calculate that SW will have a permanent fleet of approximately 16-20 aircraft (up from 13) and that the reciprocal wet lease component will be on the order of 12-16 aircraft. The ultimate balance will be determined by commercial requirements, regulatory limitations, and the combination that makes the best economic sense for TUI considering that it is the principal lessee of the majority of the SW peak fleet.
As much as some would prefer status quo, the gov't press release on Friday has made it clear that status quo is no longer an option. You are correct - the pool of flying open for bidding by SW pilots in the winter will shrink. But the volume of flying overseas in summer could grow significantly. Quid pro quo?
I am very curious what comment will flow from TUI/SW in response. The only potential plot twist is that I am also sure that CanJet is looking to see if there is an opportunity for them with SW to fill in the gaping hole that will be left in their own operation after the Transat contract expires in June 2014. Once again, TUI has a bigger picture to consider before making decisions about where to buy the lift.
Summer 2014 at SW should be interesting. I am hoping that SW does eventually evolve to a permanent fleet of 20+ aircraft and that as a result there will be more upgrade opportunities than would be possible under status quo.