weather network vs Environment Canada

[ragbagflyer]

Does anybody know what accounts for the huge discrepancy between forecasts from these two forecast providers. The two five day forecasts for Whitehorse don't even remotely resemble one another. I assume they use the same satellite data in forecasting, and I know both of them take current observations from the Whitehorse airport. They might as well just say that the sun will rise and set on a given day and let the rest just happen.

[Grey_Wolf]

Does anybody know what accounts for the huge discrepancy between forecasts from these two forecast providers

I have a theory, it's called the "Rotating Dartboard Theory". They place "weather" segements on the wheel and spin it. Next they get a blindfolded person to throw a dart at this board. Wherever it hits is the weather forecast .... so if you see snow in July, you'll know why.


On another note, looking at these sites daily, I've come up with the conception that the Weather Network is usually the "optomistic" version while EC is often the "pessimistic" one. Now couple those two with Nav Canada's AWWS and finally decide for yourself which one is the most likely. As for the discrepancies, remember it's a forecast, it's an interpretation and prediction of what is likely to happen based on data available to the forecaster .... no one can call it 100% right of the time

[Meecka]

I find that Environment Canada is more accurate for my area. The weather network is handy for the non weather realted stuff... like ski conditions!!!

[freakonature]

I once saw a 50% chance of rain on the weather network. And they were right. Other than that they are very inacurate. The world would be a scary place if we were all as wrong at our job's as a weather forecaster.

[wxguy]

Just keep in mind that it's not the forecasters fault...weather is extremely complex, and chaotic.

[freakonature]

wxguy

Sorry for the forecaster comment. I do use your service's daily,and do apreciate the work you guy's do.


freak

[cossack]

Both use computer model data from more than one source. These models can often differ greatly and depending on how much (or how little) human input is used to tweak this data, a forecast can be produced that will prove in hindsight to be wildly inaccurate. The Weather Network's 14 day trend springs to mind. Its usefulness ends at letting you know what the date will be in 14 days.
Weather forecasting is very difficult (my better half worked in the UK Met Office for 15 years) but is there really a need to produce a 14 day forecast which you know is going to be 10% accurate at best? Concentrate on 2-3 days where your accuracy will be much higher and you'll gain a little respect from your customers.
My $0.02

[Uncle Leo]

Both use computer model data from more than one source. These models can often differ greatly and depending on how much (or how little) human input is used to tweak this data, a forecast can be produced that will prove in hindsight to be wildly inaccurate. The Weather Network's 14 day trend springs to mind. Its usefulness ends at letting you know what the date will be in 14 days.
Weather forecasting is very difficult (my better half worked in the UK Met Office for 15 years) but is there really a need to produce a 14 day forecast which you know is going to be 10% accurate at best? Concentrate on 2-3 days where your accuracy will be much higher and you'll gain a little respect from your customers.
My $0.02

Spot on.



Exactly. Some forecasts lean heavily towards one model over another...and some models depict certain variables better than others. So on any given day one model's guidance can lead you astray for a different set of reasons. The data is the same, the way it is interpolated and processed is different.

[Louis]

I remember MeteoMedia (Weather Channel's French language counterpart) stating they used data from EC but made their own forecasts.

The TAFs are afaik made by Environment Canada.

One piece of advice I've given is to keep a very close eye on the weather if there's a disagreement between EC's 5 day forecasts and the TAF.

Goodbye,

Louis

[matt777]

I find the weather network to be more accurate for the short-term forecasts and EC to be more accurate for long-term...just my opinion

[hazatude]

Ask the old fella that's been flying out of the airport for 30 years. He'll tell you what day to plan your cross-country.