Accident rate statistics

[Aldous]

Hi all,

I've spent some time on the Transportation Safety Board website looking at accident data and am curious about a particular trend. Unsurprisingly the trend shown in the available statistics from annual occurrence reports is one of less accidents per hour flown. That said, I've noticed one exception; the category "Private/Other" (Other includes rentals, flight schools). Assuming my interpretation of the data is correct, to what would we attribute this?



[img]Accidents.png[/img]

[PilotDAR]

to what would we attribute this?

It does appear from the data presented that private/other flying is becoming a little less safe with the progress in time. I think that the reason for this would be a multi faceted answer - not just one reason. A long, but probably worthwhile and interesting discussion....

[Rowdy]

Consistent decline in the air taxi world.. and a very steady line in the airline environment. Those don't surprise me.

[Donald]

Private/other seems to mirror the economy?

[Flypilot]

Seems to me there is a lot more wealth around now then there would have been 20 years ago. Lot more private guys buying high performance planes and don't yet have the experience needed to fly them safely. Just a thought.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I looked at comparable statistics from the US and the GA accident rate was reported consistently at less than half of the rate shown in the TSB slide.

Personally I don't believe the TSB data and wonder about the statistical methodology they used. My first thought is that the TSB data was skewed by Ultra Lights, a type that crashes at a very high rate. In any case I find it hard to believe that there was such a huge increase in the GA accident rate over the last 10 years.

[PilotDAR]

Two interesting observations. The statistical effects of more ultralights, who's safety record could do with some polishing, and the high performance low experience combination. I see wisdom in both those comments.

From my place in the middle of the pack of single engine certified GA, I'm not seeing a marked difference in the number of accidents in recent years. I add to that the improved situational awareness resulting from much better GPS, and some glass cockpit probably improve safety.

But the foregoing is my speculation.....

[iflyforpie]

The problem is the sample size.

Airlines of course are are by far the safest... but even that 737 crash in Resolute didn't spike it up very much because of the massive number of hours airlines fly.

Helicopters and air taxi have fewer hours... and private fewer still... making individual accidents have much more of an effect.

Say there was a sector of aviation that only flew 1000 hours a year, and there was one fatality in one year vs zero every other year... you'd see zero zero zero.. a spike to 100 fatalities / 100,000 hours, then back to zero...

[GyvAir]

I don't have statistics at my fingertips to back it up, but from casual observation, it looks like the average private aircraft around the country is flown far fewer hours per year now than 15 or 20 years ago. That graph is charting accidents per hours flown, so, if the annual private aviation accident rate remains roughly constant (a number we could have a feel for, just watching the news) while the total hours flown declined, the blue line is going to slope upwards.
It would be no surprise to me to see it proven that a sample group of pilots flying 20 hours per year have more accidents per hour flown than a sample group flying 100 hours per year.

http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/avia ... 2/ss12.asp

The above link has a pile of accident statistics going back to 2003. In table 2, you can definitely see the spike in accident numbers that correspond with the spikes in '03 and '07 on the graph in the original post.
Haven't found anything much on how many hours private pilots and planes have been flying per year during the same time period.

[davecessna]

Pretty much what others have said, GA is quickly escaping the financial grasp of the middle class in today's economy.

[Shiny Side Up]

I looked at comparable statistics from the US and the GA accident rate was reported consistently at less than half of the rate shown in the TSB slide.

Personally I don't believe the TSB data and wonder about the statistical methodology they used. My first thought is that the TSB data was skewed by Ultra Lights, a type that crashes at a very high rate. In any case I find it hard to believe that there was such a huge increase in the GA accident rate over the last 10 years.

Lots of factors, those stats don't surprise me. The increase in ultralight/home built flying is certainly one factor as more people move towards a more affordable segment of flying. I would also suspect that there has been an increase in training accidents in the last decade, and lastly the increase of higher performance singles out there, coupled with the typical buyers of such machines.

Lots of other small factors which are also at play. Given the push of smaller airplanes out of bigger airports, this means that some people have to travel farther to do GA, thus means for less flying time on the GA fleet, and less frequent flying time, and we all know how little airplanes don't like to sit. It also means people's skills are getting rustier, and a small bit now that guys used to big airports are flying out of small ones, there's an increase in the problems there.

[1000 HP]

Pretty much what others have said, GA is quickly escaping the financial grasp of the middle class in today's economy.

I agree with that. I bought my first airplane when I was 21 back in 1987. It was an Aeronca 90HP Champ. I flew it 190 hrs in 19 months, then sold it. Back then, I could afford to fly regularily and never really worried about things too much. 4 years ago I bought a Mooney. I flew it a total of 200 hours but only 30 the last year. While I could afford to keep it (just barely) the fuel costs were very high even at only 10 gph. The hanger rent was average and the maintenance fairly reasonable. Insurance was cheaper than my pickup. But all that combined to cut into the kids university budget so I sold it in June. My income is up there thanks to the oil and gas business and still the expenses seem to be taking a deeper cut all the time.

Around town I see a lot of oilfield guys buying high performance stuff. One of the guys here in Lloydminster has a Cessna Mustang for fishing/business trips

[iflyforpie]

Maybe things will change with the falling crude prices....

[Rookie50]

Pretty much what others have said, GA is quickly escaping the financial grasp of the middle class in today's economy.

I agree with that. I bought my first airplane when I was 21 back in 1987. It was an Aeronca 90HP Champ. I flew it 190 hrs in 19 months, then sold it. Back then, I could afford to fly regularily and never really worried about things too much. 4 years ago I bought a Mooney. I flew it a total of 200 hours but only 30 the last year. While I could afford to keep it (just barely) the fuel costs were very high even at only 10 gph. The hanger rent was average and the maintenance fairly reasonable. Insurance was cheaper than my pickup. But all that combined to cut into the kids university budget so I sold it in June. My income is up there thanks to the oil and gas business and still the expenses seem to be taking a deeper cut all the time.

Around town I see a lot of oilfield guys buying high performance stuff. One of the guys here in Lloydminster has a Cessna Mustang for fishing/business trips

Take my word for it.

You can (or they can) kiss those days bye bye for awhile. Sorry if I'm blunt but I expect major capital spending cuts within days.

Could be wrong, often am, but check out today's oil stocks.....

[Aldous]

Thanks for replying all!

A couple things.

1. I should have clarified this data excludes ultralight aircraft

2. Indeed there has been a steady decline in GA, I suspect it correlates most with the rise in fuel price. I've included the table from the TSB I used to plot the graph.

3. The TSB stopped reporting the Accident Rate per 100,000 hours after 2009. I extrapolated the data based on the hours flown in the last reported year (2009). So it's less accurate after 2009 but the trend was steadily downwards over the previous decade so it stands to reason that the accident rate could be even higher if hours flown went below 779,000 I'm not sure how they estimate "Hours Flown" but I've sent an email to TSB to ask how they do.

It seems to me the trend is clear: less hours flown, but more accidents per hour flown

[iflyforpie]

The hours flown are most likely determined by the Annual Airworthiness Information Reports.

Another reason accident rates in private GA could be going up is the delinquency in doing AAIRs. I know lots of pilots and owners who bring them to me (sometimes several years' worth of them...) not knowing what to do with them... Most just assumed it was still like the old Condition and Conformity Inspection Reports where the AME signing out the annual inspection sends all of the info to Transport Canada.

Also.. I believe (I don't have one in front of me or an AAIR code to put in the CAWIS website) that annual hours are voluntarily reported... ... which would mean that their hours are significantly short.... ... and possibly getting shorter and shorter each year as owners don't bother anymore.

[Aldous]

The hours flown are most likely determined by the Annual Airworthiness Information Reports.

Another reason accident rates in private GA could be going up is the delinquency in doing AAIRs. I know lots of pilots and owners who bring them to me (sometimes several years' worth of them...) not knowing what to do with them... Most just assumed it was still like the old Condition and Conformity Inspection Reports where the AME signing out the annual inspection sends all of the info to Transport Canada.

Also.. I believe (I don't have one in front of me or an AAIR code to put in the CAWIS website) that annual hours are voluntarily reported... ... which would mean that their hours are significantly short.... ... and possibly getting shorter and shorter each year as owners don't bother anymore.

Interesting point, thanks. This may be why the TSB stopped reporting this figure after 2009; too difficult to get reliable data