How long the pilot shortage?

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Saubia
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How long the pilot shortage?

#1 Post by Saubia » Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:46 am

Good evening,

I am close to finish my instructor rating and i am in the mid thirty...quite old for someone who wants to become a captain at air canada one day but it what I would like to do at later stage. The pilote shortage might help me a bit but it depends how long it will stay like this. Do you have any news about that?

Thanks in advance!
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Black_Tusk
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#2 Post by Black_Tusk » Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:06 am

You'll get a lot of likely negative posts coming shortly, just a heads up. This site can be pretty toxic.

But to answer your question, based on what I've been seeing it isn't going to end anytime in the next few years. If anything it will get worse. If you really want to expedite your career progression into the airlines, stick around for 500-1000 hours of instructing then go find a FO job on a turbine. Do that for a year then apply to the regionals. Work there until you get the call from AC. Even if you get to AC by 45 you'll still be there for 20 years, that's still a decent amount of time. But I think it can be done faster. People are getting from 200 hours and flight school to places like Jazz in under 2 years. Add another 2-3 years there and you could be at AC... if they want you.

Retirements are just getting started. Couple that with fleet expansions and the regionals taking anyone they can get, it really opens up jobs at the 703 level. Talking to a former boss not long ago they are having huge issues finding pilots to fly up north, and stick around longer than a few months. All in all, just keep at it and always have a next goal. Always be working to that next goal, or you might find the years pass by pretty fast and you'll wonder where the time went while watching students you trained get an airline job and Captain job before you...
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#3 Post by leftoftrack » Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:07 pm

Why not apply to the regionals now. If you don't qualify then they'll let you know
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Saubia
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#4 Post by Saubia » Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:25 pm

Thanks for your answers, I don't want to apply now as a low hours guys I don't have enough experience/knowledge. In the best case scenario I might have an interview but then if I fail I won't have a second chance for a long time. So no use to apply right now and I prefer to improve my flying skills a bit before ( and it will be better for passengers also ;))
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#5 Post by Cat Driver » Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:03 pm

Apply now, let the employer decide if they want you.

A F.O. position is a way into getting flying experience.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#6 Post by DanJ » Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:52 pm

I'm 48 and I can't remember a time there wasn't an advertised shortage of pilots or truckers. I wish I hadn't taken the easy way in my youth lol.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#7 Post by confusedalot » Fri Jul 07, 2017 5:26 pm

Although it is true that there have been advertised shortages before and nothing really happened, the set of circumstances right now are something even I have not seen, but I do know there was a very high demand 50 years ago, suspect it will be the same.

You will be OK for quite some time, forecasts are great for those starting out.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#8 Post by av8ts » Fri Jul 07, 2017 5:40 pm

There is only a pilot shortage because of low pay. If pay was higher there would be lots of new pilots. If you want to get on with AC then a college program is your best bet to get hired.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#9 Post by confusedalot » Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:54 pm

Way past a money issue.

Google ''pilot shortage'' for a rather large amount of hits.
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Last edited by confusedalot on Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#10 Post by planett » Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:31 pm

It's not a real shortage until wages come up. This hasn't happened in Canada in any meaningful way. It's just less time in the right seat. If employers can still find suitable applicants, pay can increase just under the cost of living in the locations of the opportunities. I see a lot more job ads, but almost none ever advertise pay. That says a lot.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#11 Post by Black_Tusk » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:54 am

Someone a while ago found the stats of how many CPL's Canada licenses each year. IIRC it was around 200? That is not enough to sustain this industry in the long term. The costs to enter are too high for most people to see past the first few years of pay and realize the long term payoff. So, people are not pursuing it anymore.

I agree, it's not quite a shortage yet.. but it's coming. When crewsked is calling everyone, every day to work OT.. that's a sign. They are paying so much money to keep these planes flying right now (Captains flying in the right seats) I don't understand how it make sense financially. Add to the fact that the retirements are just going to start ramping up and fleet expansions, it's going to be messy for the next 5-10 years. Pay will go up. Minimums will go down. And anyone who was contemplating getting into the industry now and does not, will regret it once they see how quick the progression will be in the future.

At least they can always go drive a truck with a few days of school. I hear it's pretty demanding.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#12 Post by GyvAir » Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:22 pm

Black_Tusk wrote:At least they can always go drive a truck with a few days of school. I hear it's pretty demanding.
Or do both!:

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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#13 Post by Mart » Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:28 pm

Black_Tusk wrote:...(Captains flying in the right seats) I don't understand how it make sense financially.
Because those new captain get paid half of what it use to be, so like other say it's not a pilot shortage it's mainly poor working condition shortage. Who want to spend 100k on training and get 35k a year to lives in one of the most expensive city in Canada.

In the USA pay and working condition did improve a bit after like 10 years of really bad working condition. But most of the time it's just a signing bonus or recurrent bonus that company can remove anytime they want unlike actual wage increase that are protected by collective agreement.

In Canada, most of the Air Canada carrier are under unionized contract until 2025 so don't expect any improvement before that and after 2025 my guess is that they will just try to recover what they have lost in all previous negotiations. The others are in a lowest price guaranteed fight for so long that their pockets are almost empty now so again not really any room for improvement until one of them shut down but then if that happen you'll have a bunch of pilots looking for work. Don't forget all the expat that want to come back but not for minimum wage working condition.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#14 Post by geodoc » Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:24 pm

Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger Speaks to Congress & pretty much nails it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kePiiZ8_YA






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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#15 Post by confusedalot » Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:59 pm

Don't know the date of the youtube video, but I do know that my good friend at American Airlines got a huge non negotiated pay raise, bringing him to 316K to be left seat in a 737. So the merger/buyout of US airways would put the US Air pilots in the same boat.

Apparently this gift would be due to the corporation feeling the heat and attempting to avoid new recruits choosing Delta over AA.

Who knows when will this happen in canada.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#16 Post by B208 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:46 pm

There is a pilot shortage right now due to pilot retirement and airline growth. Pilot retirement is going to continue at high levels for the next ten years or so according to most of the stuff I have seen. Airline growth, (or even solvency), is a lot harder to predict. Given that interest rates are on the way up, and most of the world is swimming in debt, I don't have a lot of confidence in the economy. My prediction is that this pilot shortage is going to last right up until the next economic slow down, (which is shaping up to be a doozy), at which point a bunch of airlines will fail and the pilot shortage will be no more.
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Re: How long the pilot shortage?

#17 Post by confusedalot » Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:18 pm

Like he said.

I have said it before on different threads, here in canada, this demand over supply has not been seen for 50 years. senior big red 747 captains (when they had them) were initially hired when they were 19 years old.

Timing is everything. Place your bets. Take your chances.
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