Retirement Projections?

[mmm..bacon]

Anyone got any accurate numbers for retirements coming up over the enxt 1,3,5,10 years or so at the big 3 (WJ, AC, Jazz), please?

I've heard ~350 for AC alone next year, and then ~1500 over the next decade..

Are those numbers accurate?

[Sharklasers]

It's not 350 at AC.
ACPA used to have a chart of everyone turning 65 which would give you a general idea but for some reason it's gone completely. From what I recall it was between 125-150 mandatory retirements for the next 4-5 years then it drops right off.

[atphat]

It's not 350 at AC.
ACPA used to have a chart of everyone turning 65 which would give you a general idea but for some reason it's gone completely. From what I recall it was between 125-150 mandatory retirements for the next 4-5 years then it drops right off.

To clarify it’s 125-150 per year for the next 4-5 years. Unless this 67 garbage goes through. Then who knows....

[flyer 1492]

At Jazz thru to 2026 approx. 368 pilots will retire.

[Sharklasers]

To clarify it’s 125-150 per year for the next 4-5 years. Unless this 67 garbage goes through. Then who knows....

Exactly. I don't understand why that chart is gone but it was lots of retirements for 5 years or so then 50-75 a year after that if I recall correctly. Something like 1200 ish by 2030. I'm on the narrow body but it seems from my long haul friends a real push for 67 and beyond is afoot.

[BE20 Driver]

I don't have numbers for the teal team in front of me. They were posted internally a while back and IIRC it was a total of 50 people between 2018 and 2025. That's 50 total, not per year.

[valleyboy]

The immediate impact will be the requirement created by new FDT requirements. As afoot note some areas in the world are crews work past the age of 65. Not because they want to, that's the "high priced" help but the trend is there. It jumped from 60 to 65 and that was a game changer for a lot of people.

[DropTanks]

At Westjet

2018-2025
129 total turning 65.

2026-2030
164

2030-2035
243

[flyer 1492]

A few years ago Japan raised the age to 67, but only domestic flying.

[trey kule]

There are some buyout packages being offerred to get rid of the older pilots at , at the least, one airline in Canada.
And for the last few years us old guys have been required by TC to get all sorts of extra tests. They did not make sense at the time, but I now wonder if it was to get a baseline for the over 65 crowd as a prelude to extending the retirement age...
I expect that there will be some movement for the next couple of years, and then slow slow slow...Anyone have the average age (median) for WJ Capts?

Those 20 somethings being hired right now are looking at decades before they will need to be replaced..

[Checklist]

At Westjet

2018-2025
129 total turning 65.

2026-2030
164

2030-2035
243

So a grand total of 536 between now and 2035?

There’s probably as many applications in at AC.

[atphat]

At Westjet

2018-2025
129 total turning 65.

2026-2030
164

2030-2035
243

Sure hope those joining Encore and WJ today are in love with the right seat of the 37. That is incredibly slow progression. Better hope there isn’t any kind of downturn.

[BE20 Driver]

So a grand total of 536 between now and 2035?

There’s probably as many applications in at AC.

More. 400+ people at encore these days. 80% have apps in at AC, (the other 20% are too new.) Most of the bottom end of the mainline list would go to AC if they called. I'd guess there's a couple hundred people there.

[co-joe]

At Jazz thru to 2026 approx. 368 pilots will retire.

At Westjet

2018-2025
129 total turning 65.

2026-2030
164

2030-2035
243

So up to 2026, 497 between the two. How about Air Canada numbers till 2026?

[goingnowherefast]

Why is everybody looking to leave Encore/WJ? Is it the threat of Swoop, or am I missing something.

[JBI]

Why is everybody looking to leave Encore/WJ? Is it the threat of Swoop, or am I missing something.

I think it has (mostly) less to do with wanting to leave Encore/WJ and more to do with math & demographics (with maybe some disillusion at the way upper management has announced Swoop and the significant uncertainty of pilot career progression that has followed).

By my calculations, of the approx 3200-3500 Air Canada pilots, almost 1200 will retire between now and 2028. There will be a lot more WB Captain vacancies in the next decade than there have been in a long long time and NB upgrades will come pretty quick. Conversely, of the 1800-2000 WJ/Encore pilots, maybe 200 will be retiring in that time period. So, even if pay/benefits etc. we're 100% equal, the career progression at AC appears to be much better at the moment.

However, pay/benefits at the moment are not equal. Most of the Encore folks that I know really enjoy their job, but at the moment there is no incentive to stay if Air Canada (or Transat, or Sunwing, or Cathay Dragon) were to call. While I take the position that the Single List with Encore Date of Hire will remain in the contract even with the certifications of both pilot groups, the company has not done anything to specifically reassure the Encore pilots that this is a certainty other than say they would like to keep it. In my opinion, there is no reason why the company should be even suggesting that the single list should be a negotiated item since ALPA has indicated its support for it.

Regardless of the single list at the moment, Encore Captains who flow to the 737 take a pay cut and go back to year one pay on the jet. Taking a pay cut to go to AC is way less painful. In addition, once you get the upgrade one the jet at WJ, Captains go to year one on the Captain pay scale. While this is the case for many other carriers, and year 1 Captain pay is still better than senior FO pay, this isn't the case at Air Canada. With some exceptions, an 8th year FO at AC who upgrades gets 8th year Captain pay.

On a very rough calculation, an Encore FO or junior Captain who was hired by AC would make approximately $1 million more over the course of a career than if they stayed at WJ. While I will be the first to admit that there are a significant number of variables that could drastically change that calculation, the difference, at the moment, is pretty compelling.

I think many folks at Encore or WJ would rather just spend their entire career at WJ (and I think most would even sacrifice some pay to do so), but the math and demographics are pretty overwhelming at the moment. I do think WJ/Encore (Swoop?) will start making changes to the pay/benefits for retention and recruitment purposes; "when" is the question.

[Mostly Harmless]

More. 400+ people at encore these days. 80% have apps in at AC, (the other 20% are too new.) Most of the bottom end of the mainline list would go to AC if they called. I'd guess there's a couple hundred people there.

I REALLY want to know where you get these numbers from. Are these actual numbers that you have inside information on or is this one of those, "97.6% of all people know 87.2% of all statistics are made up on the spot?"

Now, be honest. Real numbers or just your feeling?

[JBI]

More. 400+ people at encore these days. 80% have apps in at AC, (the other 20% are too new.) Most of the bottom end of the mainline list would go to AC if they called. I'd guess there's a couple hundred people there.

I REALLY want to know where you get these numbers from. Are these actual numbers that you have inside information on or is this one of those, "97.6% of all people know 87.2% of all statistics are made up on the spot?"

Now, be honest. Real numbers or just your feeling?

BE20's post would of course have to be a guess, but I second that it's a pretty honest estimate (though my guess would be 50%-75%). While I do have no doubt things with Swoop, the new CBA, 787s and the Single List will sort themselves out, there's a lot of uncertainty about career progression at Encore/WJ/Swoop at the moment and when the most recent hiring portal opened at AC, a lot of people started updating their logbooks.

Do I think it is about being really unhappy and wanting to jump ship? No, but pilots like options and if you don't put in an application, it isn't an option.

[Mostly Harmless]

I am all about keeping your options open. In fact, it would be unwise not to examine all your options. The employers have no loyalty to you and would not shed a tear should they have to lay you off.

My point is really more about throwing around numbers like they are fact when none of us really know. For instance, from another thread in the Air Canada forum,

On a side note, and I'm not trying to stir the pot here, apparently their is over 200 resumes on file from WJ pilots. At 4 to 5 pilots on every course coming from WJ, this must be creating some crewing issues at WJ.

There are around 2000ish WJ/WJE pilots meaning that only around ~10% of WJ pilots have a resume with AC. Is this number accurate? None of us know for certain.

It's time to take the emotion down a few levels and let the logic do the work.

[BE20 Driver]

No one at the teal team has any firm way of knowing an exact number. I ran into an Encore colleague just yesterday and he figured it was around 60-70% of the pilots he works with have apps in at AC. I'd guess there are probably around the same number of people that have flowed up that have applied. The only people who would have a factual number work in AC HR Department. I'm sure they're not about to jump on here and post a firm number.

One of the pilots I just flew with said he had recurrent recently. Apparently WS management isn't the least bit worried about our pilots leaving here. Shame really. Tells me they aren't interested in why people are leaving or in making things better. That's a whole other thread.