'shortage of pilots'or not??

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7507
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'shortage of pilots'or not??

#1 Post by 7507 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:28 pm

HI guys, new to posting questions to the site but have been reading alot of posts regarding employment issues.

Alot of comments on shortage of pilots on every level especially on the 703 and 704 level. Then I read articles here or comments from guys there is no shortage of 'qualified pilots' what does this mean. They say Air Canada still hires guys with 2000 and 3000 hours and not anybody less than that.

So who is and continue to be hit the hardest now and the near future? Porter, Jazz, Sky, Georgian, CMA, Encore, etc. etc.

Will it is still be ok for guys with 1000 to 1500 hours to get onto places like Porter and the rest in the next year or two? Also the U.S. is discussing on making legit to let Canadian pilots go down south and get jobs there and what would that do that to the market here in Canada?

I guess only the higher power knows what's going to happen .
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#2 Post by Heliian » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:57 pm

There is a shortage that has now worked down to the regional level and is now causing a shortage of pilots from there and below. Everybody wants that 250k a year jet job. Guess what, it won't be there by the time you get there. Those big carriers will be the first to employ automation and even if they still need pilots they won't be paying that.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#3 Post by goingnowherefast » Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:17 pm

There is a shortage of 1500hr ATPL pilots willing to work for $35 000 a year. By the time you are at 2500+ hours, an ATPL, and some pic on a king air/metro/1900, you are in demand. You can work for just about anybody you want (provided you aren't an asshole). Companies that increase the WAWCON will attract experienced pilots from companies with lower WAWCON. AC and WJ are still pretty picky as they "prefer" you to go through their regional feeder system. I use the word "prefer" cautiously as, for example, 50% of AC's qualified applicants currently work for Jazz, and an AC ground school is 60% Jazz pilots, that's not a big preference. (*disclaimer: those numbers are just examples to make the point, I do not have inside info)

Westwind, Wasaya, Bearskin, CMA, PASCO, Calm Air and every other 703/704/small 705 will continue to loose pilots to Porter, Jazz, Sky, Encore and a lesser degree Georgian. Those airlines in turn will feed pilots to AC, Transat, Sunwing, WJ and overseas. The way it's generally going is 704 FOs become Porter, Jazz, Sky, Encore FOs. 704 captains usually aren't interested in the crap pay, so they move towards good 704/small 705 operators and/or wait it out for AC.

If you have 250hrs, there's 10 more just like you lining up for 8 jobs. In 2010 it was 10 new pilots competing for 2 jobs, so it is an improvement.

As for the future, I haven't gotten my crystal ball to work yet. I doubt the US will open the border to Canadian pilots as a free-for-all. Those with the right to work down south are giving it serious thought and some are moving. Hard to argue with twice the pay (except maybe their current president is scaring them off).
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#4 Post by Rowdy » Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:39 pm

No shortage of 250hr kids.. certainly a shortage of anyone with any relevant experience. Hell, they're dragging in 700hr instructors in for interviews at pretty much all the regionals...
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#5 Post by 7507 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:57 pm

Rowdy wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:39 pm
No shortage of 250hr kids.. certainly a shortage of anyone with any relevant experience. Hell, they're dragging in 700hr instructors in for interviews at pretty much all the regionals...
700 hour instructors! How long has this been going on and do you think it will continue? I thought they didn't like instructors as much as guys with 702 and 703 experience.

Wow I guess it's optimistic !
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#6 Post by confusedalot » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:50 pm

I always thought that instructors got a bad rap. If anything, an instructor needs to be good at conveying information and communicating effectively, which is a large part of operating in a multi crew environment.

I did it for 1000 hours in singles, twins, and IFR. Do not regret it. Helped alot with future trainer and checker duties.

So why not give them a shot?
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#7 Post by 7507 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:19 pm

confusedalot wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:50 pm
I always thought that instructors got a bad rap. If anything, an instructor needs to be good at conveying information and communicating effectively, which is a large part of operating in a multi crew environment.

I did it for 1000 hours in singles, twins, and IFR. Do not regret it. Helped alot with future trainer and checker duties.

So why not give them a shot?

I agree with you, instructors have to know and teach and like you said in a multi crew " scenario" . They deserve an opportunity, my surprise is how low the time (700 hours) has crept down, is it that bad right now?
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#8 Post by confusedalot » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:50 pm

I am going to go with the other posters are publishing, I will only ''assume'' that this is right.

I am no longer in the business, my time is done. Did not experience this sort of open market.

I am not surprised at all however, the cycle of life has some surprises, and in the aviation case, I know of a time where finding cockpit crew was a big problem even for air canada. (really, there was a time where if you walked and talked and had a licence, you were in), I was after this sort of time, and as I have indicated on other posts, this sort of situation appears to be recurring, although not as severely.

I can see 700 hours hired at the likes of porter jazz, sky, et al, however, based on the avcanada blogs, the big two, ac and westjet, do not seem to be hurting for applications, so I can only assume that the feeder guys of every stripe are looking for greener pastures at the big two, and the big two won't touch 700 hour people.

Which in turns opens up regional jobs. :P
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#9 Post by dhc# » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:00 am

Shortage at the regional level is well known, but is anyone aware of any regional actually having to cancel flights due to lack of available crew ?
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#10 Post by KAG » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:00 am

The shortage is only starting and will get much worse before it gets better. With retirements, expansion domestically and over seas, reduced pilots doing initial training and continuing, to ATPL its the perfect storm to be a pilot right now, and will for some time. How long is anyones guess but years, maybe a decade or so before something like single pilot airline ops and automation fill the void (if not decades as nothing in aviation happens fast).
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#11 Post by bobcaygeon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:16 am

Georgian, Porter, and Jazz have cancelled flights due to lack of crew.
Expansion won't happen if they don't have the bodies no matter how hard "commercial" yells.

More like reduced service, bigger aircraft & less frequency, and cancellation of the least profitable routes.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#12 Post by pelmet » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:13 pm

Maybe they could try thinking outside the box to attract some pilots who might not normally consider these carriers. How about someone comes up with month on-month off. Flying a CRJ or an E175 with a normal schedule during the month on and then the guaranteed time off. Of course, if you work only half the year, you get less pay but there are pilots out there that might be interested but who are not interested in a job where you never get much time off.

Overall it might be more expensive but less attrition for the certain percentage that like this kind of thing may compensate.

If they don't want to do it...fine. Find somone else who almost certainly has their resume out for something else on their first day of groundschool.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#13 Post by 7507 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:36 pm

KAG wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:00 am
The shortage is only starting and will get much worse before it gets better. With retirements, expansion domestically and over seas, reduced pilots doing initial training and continuing, to ATPL its the perfect storm to be a pilot right now, and will for some time. How long is anyones guess but years, maybe a decade or so before something like single pilot airline ops and automation fill the void (if not decades as nothing in aviation happens fast).

Do you think carriers like Porter will continue to struggle for the next year or two or less than a year, just hearing all kinds of scenarios. And I've been reading here Jazz has hired guys with 800 hours but Porter won't touch you unless you have the 'hard' 1000 hours.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#14 Post by goingnowherefast » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:52 pm

Porter is being the most creative and proactive in regards to recruiting pilots. It seems to be working as they have higher requirements and higher time applicants. Jazz seems to have the lowest requirements. Jazz also has some aggressive recruiting programs, but attrition is also pretty high among those on the post-2015 contract.

Not just Porter, but all the regional airlines will struggle to fill seats for the next while. I won't give a number, as nobody has any idea when this will all stop. Probably at the next economic downturn. If you know when that's coming, please let me know in a PM.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#15 Post by JohnnyHotRocks » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:19 pm

Interesting article from the corporate side of things south of the border.
We aren't seeing this here but hopefully we will!

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... pilot-pool
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#16 Post by FOD_Vacuum » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:05 pm

Or just pay the pilots more. There's a reason they only attract 800 hour guys. Because for them it is an upgrade in pay from their instructing job or FO turbine gig at a 703/704. No one should have to work for sub $40k and live in all the expensive cities and hustle for crash pads, especially after you just spent $80k on education and being in the industry for a couple years. It is a slap in the face for what you have achieved and is greatly overlooked by this industry IMHO. Jazz and encore, for the most part will and continue to attract those candidates unless they raise the bar to what it should be based on industry and economic inflation. Do what the states are doing, have some short term incentive. With profits at all time high and regionals thinking about parking planes, its mind boggling that the higher ups haven't figured this out yet...there are still a bunch of us with ATPLs and lots of multi turbine PIC waiting in the sea but jazz and encore won't get any nibbles from us unless things change is in this so called "pilot market". There is a reason why kids are showing up to Encore interviews in hoodies these days...
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#17 Post by pelmet » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:46 am

Porter want 1000 hours while Jazz only requires 800? Aside from the possibility of a convenience for getting to work situation, why would anyone choose Porter over Jazz?
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#18 Post by goingnowherefast » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:19 am

Porter pays quite a bit more, also the whole company isn't affected by the whims of AC. Just look at the closing of the YYZ CRJ base, the PML debacle and that the 2015 contract was a PAY CUT. There's lots of reasons to prefer Porter. This may be hearsay but from what I understand, Porter guys work shorter days and shorter pairings. Meaning better personal and family life.

Only downside is you are an OTS hire at AC and I wonder if that will mean anything in a couple years.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#19 Post by marakii » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:37 am

goingnowherefast wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:19 am
Porter pays quite a bit more, also the whole company isn't affected by the whims of AC. Just look at the closing of the YYZ CRJ base, the PML debacle and that the 2015 contract was a PAY CUT. There's lots of reasons to prefer Porter. This may be hearsay but from what I understand, Porter guys work shorter days and shorter pairings. Meaning better personal and family life.

Only downside is you are an OTS hire at AC and I wonder if that will mean anything in a couple years.




Only downside is you are an OTS hire at AC and I wonder if that will mean anything in a couple years.
[/quote]
What do you mean by the quote above:
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#20 Post by goingnowherefast » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:43 am

Will the PML still exist in 5 years? There very well could be no more PML, no OTS, everybody is in the same application stream. It is already fairly close to that as the last PML was a guaranteed interview only, and nothing beyond that. Even that is a bit of a joke. AC will always interview qualified candidates. If you work for Jazz and don't meet AC's requirements, you still won't get hired.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#21 Post by avpride » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:52 am

goingnowherefast wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:43 am
Will the PML still exist in 5 years? There very well could be no more PML, no OTS, everybody is in the same application stream. It is already fairly close to that as the last PML was a guaranteed interview only, and nothing beyond that. Even that is a bit of a joke. AC will always interview qualified candidates. If you work for Jazz and don't meet AC's requirements, you still won't get hired.
That is an odd statement under any scenario - "If you don't meet AC's requirement, you still won't get hired" - would you expect any company to hire you if you don't meet their requirements?
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#22 Post by goingnowherefast » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:04 am

It was a statement tailored to people who think the PML is any sort of promise. See the thread in the AC forum "express vs mainline pilots" (or something to that effect).

AC interviews qualified OTS applicants. AC interviews qualified PML applicants. The only actual difference is OTS guys aren't guaranteed the interview. There aren't different hiring requirements for PML vs OTS applicants
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#23 Post by dhc# » Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:54 pm

Any educated guesses as to hiring #'s for 2018 for (AC, WJ, Jazz, SR, Georgian, Encore, Porter, Transat, Sunwing etc) ??
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#24 Post by fish4life » Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:44 pm

pure guess but I'm thinking about 800 "new" positions will be created in 2018.

AC sounds like they need 4-500 in 2018
WJ has 787's coming and will need probably 150 pilots to start to gear up for that / organic growth / FDT rules changing
Sunwing and Transat will probably need 50 each to account for some mix of expat attrition / retirement / FDT rules
Swoop will need to add pilots so lets say 50 there, they might be coming from current WJ pilots in which case you will need to add 50 to the WJ number.

jazz, porter, encore/ other express carriers don't seem to have much growth planned so their hiring numbers will be entirely dependent on how many of the above carriers take from them, lets say 100 new positions for FDT rules / the odd retirement.

The above is just new pilot positions in my guess, WJ may need to hire 400 because AC takes 250 but that in reality just moves the new positions around it doesn't create new ones. Trying to predict these numbers is a guess as it is, trying to predict how the movement between companies will work is near impossible.
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Re: 'shortage of pilots'or not??

#25 Post by BE20 Driver » Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:49 pm

I don't have any firm numbers but Encore only has a couple more deliveries and then they are at the 45 Q400 mark. That would only leave a couple more ground schools at 10 people each to cover crewing requirements.

Mainline plans no hiring for the first half of 2018. I don't believe that there is a prediction beyond that point. Later in the year the music starts up and people will likely start shuffling around to prepare for Swoop (only 2 tails for 2018?), and the first of the 787's (in 2019). That'll drive some hiring on the bottom end but I don't have any numbers to back that up right now.
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