Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

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goingnowherefast
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#26 Post by goingnowherefast » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:44 am

Does that include parts and maintenance support for the whole Dash 8 series?
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#27 Post by CLguy » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:12 am

MONTREAL — Bombardier Inc. announced Thursday it will cut about 5,000 jobs across the organization over the next 12 to 18 months as part of a new restructuring plan.

The cuts are expected to lead to about US$250 million in annualized savings by 2021.

The company also announced the sale of what it called a number of non-core assets.

Bombardier has struck a deal to sell its Q Series aircraft program and de Havilland trademark to a subsidiary of Longview Aviation Capital Corp. for about US$300 million.

It also announced the sale of its aircraft's flight and technical training business to CAE, and the monetization of royalties for about US$800 million.

"With our heavy investment cycle now completed, we continue to make solid progress executing our turnaround plan," Bombardier chief executive Alain Bellemare said in a statement.

"With today's announcements we have set in motion the next round of actions necessary to unleash the full potential of the Bombardier portfolio."

The changes came as Bombardier reported a profit of US$149 million or four cents per share in its latest quarter, compared with a loss of US$100 million or four cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue in what was the company's third quarter totalled $3.64 billion, down from $3.84 billion a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, Bombardier said it earned four cents per share in the quarter compared with a break-even result in the third quarter of 2017.

Longview Aviation, the parent company to Viking Air Ltd., said once it completes its deal with Bombardier it will become North America's largest commercial turbo-prop aircraft manufacturer.

The agreement includes the entire Dash 8 program, including the 100, 200 and 300 series and the in-production Q400 program.

"The Dash 8 turbo-prop is the perfect complement to our existing portfolio of specialized aircraft including the Twin Otter and the Canadair CL 215 and 415 series of water bombers," Longview Aviation chief executive David Curtis said in a statement.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#28 Post by Chris M » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:01 am

goingnowherefast wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:44 am
Does that include parts and maintenance support for the whole Dash 8 series?
Everything. Spares, support, customer service... The works. For all Dash-8 variants.

Apparently Viking also bought the Dehavilland name.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#29 Post by rookiepilot » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:23 am

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... 1541696983

Down 27% at the lows today.

And I thought this was a world leading stock headed over 10 bucks imminently, in a ripping economy, I might add. So I was told, here.

Next Government support package in 5..4..3..2..1.

I'll take a pass, thanks. Again. My opinion on BBD hasn't changed.

Brutal company. Brutal management.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#30 Post by flyingcanuck » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:32 am

I’m pretty ignorant in this topic so if someone can explain. I read they have 1500 RJs in service + all the Qs.. how is a company like this doing badly?
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#31 Post by Cavalier44 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:32 am

It’s sad to see Bombardier get broken up into smaller and smaller pieces as its major manufacturing programs are being sold off. At least the bright side to this is that some of these jobs will stay in Canada rather than having the Q400 program be sold to some other nation such as China, as was the rumour after the CSeries program was sold.

It will be interesting to see how Viking handles continued production of the Q400, if indeed they are able to. It’s certainly a long way from maufacturing a few dozen Twin Otter 400 Series per year. It would be interesting to see them restart manufacturing of the Q300 while carrying over some improvements from the Q400 program. ATR has been hugely successful in the 50-seat turboprop market simply due to the fact that there is no competitor to the ATR-42 currently being built. Certainly there are markets in Canada which are viable for this level of service while still being too small for a Q400, as the launch of WestJet Link and Jazz’s retention of the -300s proves.

Unfortunately Bombardier went all-in financially on the CSeries program and didn’t have the resources to continue innovating in the turboprop or small RJ market. Hopefully Viking will be a worthy successor to Bombardier/de Havilland Canada in that regard.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#32 Post by rookiepilot » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:52 am

How people can think the same management that has destroyed the reputation of the train division, can somehow effectively produce a quality aviation product (Much more complex) AND make money while doing so, is beyond me.

I don't know Viking well, but suspect it's better run. No bailouts (to my knowledge anyway) and still in business.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#33 Post by CWhyYZ » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:00 am

flyingcanuck wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:32 am
I’m pretty ignorant in this topic so if someone can explain. I read they have 1500 RJs in service + all the Qs.. how is a company like this doing badly?
In a nutshell, a poorly mismanaged company that also spent every cent they had available on entering the narrow body jet world. Hampered by cost over runs and delays followed with poor sales. They leveraged the farm on the C Series. Now its a fire sale to just stay in business. They found themselves close to being kicked off the TSX when they became a penny stock a couple years ago.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#34 Post by rookiepilot » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:57 am

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... 00-layoffs

BBD announces layoffs at special meeting. CEO doesn't even show up, "schedule is very busy"
Executive bonuses? Fully Intact.

I remember here reading the defense of this "world class" company and their first rate management team, when I critiqued them.

LOL -- is all I can say. What an embarrassment. What a gutless CEO.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#35 Post by lownslow » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:55 am

I thought the aviation side seemed to be the competently run part of the operation. What gives? Harder to get bailed out when you don't make garbage?
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#36 Post by rookiepilot » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:36 pm

$2.25 today. Down another 10%.

BK....or yet another Bailout? Place your bets.

Maybe the Quebec taxpayers will actually revolt this time if asked to give that CEO another 10 million.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-co ... rdier.html

3 billion so far to this "world class" company.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#37 Post by Diadem » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:16 pm

Rather than just focus on the negatives of Bombardier, on the flip side, what are the implications for Longview/Viking? Are they likely to continue building Q400s, or will they only provide support and let the fleets dwindle away? Is there a chance they'll start making modernized versions of the Classics? Would they move production to VIctoria or Calgary if they decide to build more?
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#38 Post by rookiepilot » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:23 am

I'd like the Bombardier defenders to show up, please.
I posted as such to Bill Morneau:

Sir, Canadians want to know why this government continues to pour money into Bombardier's executive bonuses and 14 million dollar CEO, while laying off thousands of workers -- while maintaining hard working small business folks are "tax cheats".
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#39 Post by Rowdy » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:09 am

So what does Bombardier actually do?

The CRJ was canadair, the Q400 was dehavilland before them.. The C series is now Airbus...

Blows me away that our government just keeps handing their execs cash.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#40 Post by goingnowherefast » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:05 pm

Take the money back from Bombardier, and give it to Viking. Restart the Q200/300/400 production. Build the Buffalo for civilian and military
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#41 Post by rookiepilot » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:56 pm

goingnowherefast wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:05 pm
Take the money back from Bombardier, and give it to Viking. Restart the Q200/300/400 production. Build the Buffalo for civilian and military
Awesome idea. Never going to happen.
Viking is an Western based company.

Bombardier is a pure political football, unlike the auto bailouts.
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#42 Post by RatherBeFlying » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:08 am

Large North American corporations tend to get parasitised into a conspiracy by upper management to screw employees, customers, government and shareholders in whichever way will maximise their bonuses.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#43 Post by palebird » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:52 am

"Awesome idea. Never going to happen.
Viking is an Western based company. "

Exactly. Without government support where would the money come from? Enormous capital investment.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#44 Post by goingnowherefast » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:55 am

Is Viking even traded publicly? I sold all my Bombardier shares a long time ago.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#45 Post by rookiepilot » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:42 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.4907857

Quebec securities regulator investigating.
I guess they are pissed they gave these guys so much dough without any job guarantees.
Brilliant.

https://business.financialpost.com/comm ... stors-flee

Here's an industry Trudeau could help with the stroke of a pen. No money at all.
And refuses. After all it's in Alberta. Would never help the province Harper came from.
Mark my words. Alberta will separate.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3346938/trud ... xecutives/

There's little question Trudeau will bail out Bombardier again. His friends.

"We respect the free market and the choices that companies will make,” Trudeau said. “But we also have a responsibility to ensure that the investments we make with taxpayers’ dollars are leading to good jobs and growth.”

How's that working for you? Sure it won't stop the next bailout. Why not help a successful company like Viking?
Dumb question. I know.

https://www.bcbusiness.ca/lunch-with-vi ... ave-curtis
CEO looks cool. Pilot. Doubt he gets 14 million.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#46 Post by rookiepilot » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:34 am

https://business.financialpost.com/news ... 1542385825

LOL. $1.77 today. "World Class" Company.

EDIT:

$1.67
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#47 Post by goldeneagle » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:34 am

rookiepilot wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:23 am
I'd like the Bombardier defenders to show up, please.
I'm one of those who have in the past commented on how pleased I was with some BBD.B holdings at the time. It's very possible those comments were taken out of context and interpreted as some form of defense for the company as a whole. I will be the first to admit, not a financial expert by any means, but one of my hobbies is trading in the risk markets, it can be a lucrative hobby at times. The rise and fall of BBD.B is a wonderful opportunity for a learning experience, so, I'll explain my strategies and philosophy behind the BBD.B trade, let the expert critique and possibly help me learn how to better manage a risk capital position.

First, the philosophy. I do not believe that deploying risk capital to the markets is an investment in any way shape or form. The short and medium term prices of stock issues are driven primarily by the news cycle, and less so by company financial pictures. A disciplined trader enters a risk position with a set of pre-determined parameters, how much will we risk, what is the potential for gain, and what is the timeframe for execution? If a position is established without these parameters defined in advance, it's just gambling. With well defined parameters, the process is about balancing expected gain against actual risk. I came about this philosophy a long time ago, back in the bad old days of the tech bubble I was one of those folks that was glued to the tape every morning, actively trading in issues being driven by the news of the day, it's a high stress lifestyle that can be somewhat rewarding, but one thing always bugged me, those who had the stock before the news broke would make out like bandits without the stress of chasing intraday moves. My problem at the time, capital base was not large enough to sit on stocks hoping for news to break, and I would likely be stuck on the wrong side of the news story as often as not, it just seemed like a risky strategy. Over time, the capital base grew, and I learned how to filter stories in the pipeline a little better.

When I originally established the first trade in BBD.B, I had a very clear outline of the risk and reward, along with the timeframe. The news cycle at that point was all about potential for index removal with the stock trading under a dollar. BBD.B was not even on my radar in those days, not an issue I had any interest in, huge float that rarely makes large moves. But the potential for index removal brought headlines and a wild card into play, it was my opinion that company management would not let that happen, there were to many things on the go that had potential to generate a good news story, CSeries being the biggest of those. It would only take one good CSeries press release to run the stock safely back up above a dollar and quash talk of index removal. My initial entry was then well defined, purchase under 90 cents, an expected sell point over a dollar within a 3 month timeframe. That adds up to a return of 11% or more over the 3 months till index removal went from talk to reality. It was my opinion, the risk of continued slide without a recovery back into the range over a dollar was minimal, just to much potential for the management to spin a story around the CSeries. I pulled the trigger, took on a bunch of shares, then immediately placed a Good Till cancel for a sale at 1.01. Gosh, it only took a couple of days, woke up to find my order had filled at open well above my target price of 1.01. Nice, and now BBD.B was on my radar. The thing that really surprised me, just how peppy the bid side support got in that first run up after it sank. I think it was about a week later, there was BBD.B sinking down to a dollar again, hmm, can we pull this off twice? I left a buy at 0.99, good till cancel, it filled the next day and closed above a buck.

Ok, so now I have a good chunk of BBD.B, we've made 20 cents on the first round of a dollar stock, how far can this thing run, the first spike was not driven by a fabulous story from CSeries, it was essentially just market noise. Going to play it different now, have some cushion, time for a slightly different strategy. Set in a stop loss at 0.97 so we dont get hammered to bad if it continues to sink, no upside protection, the goal is to sell the news when that CSeries story does come. Yes, it took some time, if memory serves correctly, was 2 or 3 months, but eventually that CSeries story came, woke up to find BBD.B going way up, better than 50% on my monry, so onto the sell side we go. I remember clearly that day, was in a PM with somebody here about trading in BBD.B based on the CSeries story, he was a buyer at the open, I was a seller. We chuckled, he probably bought my shares. There is a regular reader here who can validate the story, but I wont mention any names, that would be rude, not sure he wants to own up to buying a short term top and selling for a small loss.

The thing about it now, BBD.B has been on my radar for some time, I've become quite familiar with the Level 2 games played on that issue, and I'm really not sure how far the market can run this stock on CSeries stories, but it's obvious that anything good in the press about that story will bring buyers out of the woodwork, in droves, and at the same time, all of the offers seem to vanish. How many times can this thing run ? I dunno, but, it still appears to have serious life left in it. Next day it's settling, so, lets try round 3. I have a standard size measured in dollars for entry into a risk position, so, place an order one more time, but now we are dealing with a smaller number of shares, back to a standard entry position. Some would say I am playing with house money because I can buy almost all of those shares with BBD.B profits over the last few months. I disagree with that philosophy, when I place an order to buy risk shares, it's my money going on the table. I like round numbers, an issue on the decline almost always takes out the round numbers and sinks a little lower. Sold the day before at the open up around 1.75, it's headed for 1.60, place the order at 1.49 and wait. Well, it never got that low, so as the close approaches, just say fuggit and hit the offer, then set in the sell at 2.01 and wait. I dunno, it was a week, maybe it was 2 weeks, but that order filled when I was not around. Do I like BBD.B as an issue to trade, yes, I sure do. But, this horse has been rode hard and put away wet, so lets just move on. But, do set some alarms, if it goes back to 1.75 re-evaluate. some time later, coulda been a couple months or so, alarms did hit, but I didn't buy, just watched. Sure enough, within a short time after hitting my 1.75 downside alert, bugger was trading north of 2 again, and I missed the boat completely. Reset the alarms. Alarms hit again a couple months later, but this time I was ready, the buy at 1.74 was in place before the price got there.

But this is where I once again changed up the strategy, based on how the market has been reacting to this particular issue. Any time CSeries stuff hits the press, it just goes up and up. and between it seems to trade fairly stagnant, with small declines. I didn't buy a risk position on this go around, I bought what I consider a core position, a much larger chunk of capital. I dont treat core positions lightly, and I do tend to limit risk on those large capital chunks. I've got an engineering education, part of that is how to do advanced math, I can twiddle the numbers in the black scholes model as well as anybody and BBD.B has options. To limit downside, I bought enough puts a few months out to ensure a big slide would not wipe out that capital. Puts can get expensive, but a big chunk of that expense can be offset by selling calls. You pay the time premium on the puts, collect it on the calls, only out of pocket for transaction costs. From there, really no need to even watch it anymore. it's bracketed on both the upside, and the downside. There is a defined minimum loss at the strike of the puts, and a defined maximum profit at the strike on the calls, and everything in between is just noise. Still waiting on the big story out of the CSeries program, and with a little luck, it'll hit the strike on my calls which will force liquidation. Didn't happen, it basically traded sideways and the options expiry arrived. Price was somewhat higher at the time, so, reset the hedge, this time buying puts up a little higher, and selling calls up a little higher. At that point I was sitting on stock purchased sub 2 dollars, had puts at 2 dollars and sold calls at 4 dollars. Hindsight is always 20/20, shoulda sold the calls at a 5 dollar strike, but, I didn't, the math didn't work for that at the time.

The stock did eventually take out the calls, at which point there is no reason to continue the trade, there is no upside profit when you have calls outstanding to sell at a fixed price. I was not the only one unwinding at that point, there was a truckload of 4 dollar calls outstanding when that day came. As for once again re-evaluating the trade, no point. This was a play based entirely on news potential from the CSeries program, and by then, CSeries was an Airbus story. No story left to wager on.

Now for the recent downslide, HOLY COW, did I ever miss the boat on that one. Maybe I should have paid a little more attention to the commentary from rookie. When it went over 5 bucks, that opens the floodgates for retail accounts to establish short positions, and in hindsight, the runup to 5 was way overdone considering any fundamentals. I consider naked options to be truely gambling in the purest form, but wowow, a really smart cookie woulda loaded up on 5 dollar puts last July, again, easy to say in hindsight, not so easy to pull the trigger at the time. But not everybody is taking a bath as BBD.B slides down, check this out:-

https://web.tmxmoney.com/options.php?qm ... page=88100

There's a whole lot of options in play, lots of hedges that have sold the calls at 5 bucks and bought the 3.50 puts. The underlying issue may be taking a nose dive, but, millions of shares are insured at the 3.50 sell price, half that amount at 4.00 and another big chunk at 3.25. Yes, they are probably taking a small haircut on BBD.B pricing today, but its not the catastrophe looming over those holding shares with naked market exposure.

So rookie, now that you understand, my commentary was in no way any kind of defense of Bombardier as a company, simply commentary on how the market moves, what say you ? What exactly was wrong with a risk strategy based on expectation of news out of the CSeries program ? What would a financial expert have done to improve execution while managing risk thru the process ?
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#48 Post by rookiepilot » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:37 pm

goldeneagle wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:34 am
rookiepilot wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:23 am
I'd like the Bombardier defenders to show up, please.
I'm one of those who have in the past commented on how pleased I was with some BBD.B holdings at the time. It's very possible those comments were taken out of context and interpreted as some form of defense for the company as a whole. I will be the first to admit, not a financial expert by any means, but one of my hobbies is trading in the risk markets, it can be a lucrative hobby at times. The rise and fall of BBD.B is a wonderful opportunity for a learning experience, so, I'll explain my strategies and philosophy behind the BBD.B trade, let the expert critique and possibly help me learn how to better manage a risk capital position.


So rookie, now that you understand, my commentary was in no way any kind of defense of Bombardier as a company, simply commentary on how the market moves, what say you ? What exactly was wrong with a risk strategy based on expectation of news out of the CSeries program ? What would a financial expert have done to improve execution while managing risk thru the process ?
GoldenEagle;

I wasn't actually thinking of you with my comments.

I was thinking of those who I've debated with on these forums, who have characterized BBD as a world class company with world class management. I mean The whole company, not the C Series, which was likely designed by some fine engineers. As an investor, the product is only one component of the story.

World class? = delusional.

I've been doing this a long, long time, and a free tip: It's all about the management, all about the board and the CEO. Period, full stop. Without excellence there, I couldn't give a rip what products the engineers create.

I buy the best management I can find in the best sector I can identify at a given period in time.

Now, if someone like you, wants to risk some play type money in BBD or any other stock, and a 100% loss isn't any skin, have at er'.
It's not appropriate for some pilot's retirement though -- in my humble opinion. It's a no touch.

I short stocks, but would not short BBD. Why? I don't short political footballs irrationally supported without my taxpayer consent. Monday we wake up, and Quebec buys out everyone for 10 bucks. Who knows?

As an aside, more than 90% of my activity is outside Canada anyway. 2 reasons: Insider trading is rampant in this country, and perfectly fine with the authorities. Its an unfair playing field. The SEC puts people in jail. Totally different.

2nd: A foolish government completely hostile to business. Exhibit A -- Energy, in complete crisis. Untouchable. Toxic waste until that changes. And it won't, because Trudeau I expect will be re-elected.

Investors reading: Embrace the US. My best advice. Yes, drop the US hatred everyone. It's costing you. Fire your advisor keeping you in Canada. 95% of them are idiot salespeople stuffing you in their banks products. They don't even know what they don't know.
Why are you risking your retirement with a 25 year old that has barely learned to shave?

(PS: -- I am NOT an advisor -- please don't DM me).

You may continue to think me a fool ---- But I think the way I analyse is just fine. And results show it.

Carry on all --
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#49 Post by rookiepilot » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:21 pm

More-- just out:

"The provincial government would be open to investing more in Bombardier, Quebec’s economy minister said following a meeting with the company’s president and CEO, Alain Bellemare, on Friday morning."

https://montrealgazette.com/business/lo ... bombardier

Unbelievable. Does a new bonus come with that for Alain?
See my shocked face.

https://business.financialpost.com/news ... ock-trades

"The shares closed at $4.64 on the day the stock plan was announced. Bellemare and other top executives aimed to sell shares worth a combined $164 million (US$124 million), based on the share price at the time.

Bellemare wanted to sell as many as 7.04 million Class B shares, and Chief Financial Officer John Di Bert planned to unload 4.36 million shares, according to the filing. Chairman Pierre Beaudoin, whose family controls Montreal-based Bombardier through multiple-voting shares, intended to sell as many as 3.1 million shares.

A company spokesman declined to comment Thursday on whether any executives have sold shares since the sale plan was announced in August."

Rats deserting the ship.
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Re: Bombardier considers move away from Downsview

#50 Post by Human Factor » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:56 pm

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