Recession.

This forum has been developed to discuss aviation related topics.

Moderators: ahramin, sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:12 pm

Don't know about you, I see advance signs all over the place. I'm US focused in my work, so we might be different.

It's coming.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
sanjet
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 819
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:54 am

Re: Recession.

Post by sanjet » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:31 pm

A recession indicator with a perfect track record over 70 years is close to being triggered
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-reces ... gered.html
---------- ADS -----------
  

Hilroy
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:15 pm
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: Recession.

Post by Hilroy » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:32 pm

Can you imagine the budget deficit if we were to go into a recession... We're already 30B in the red while we're on a highly performing economy...
---------- ADS -----------
  
Master of Cessna 172
It has been 0 days since I've almost died in an airplane.
Never trust a student with fuel and oil.

User avatar
iflyforpie
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7737
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:25 pm
Location: Winterfell...

Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm

It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
---------- ADS -----------
  
Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?

altiplano
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3498
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by altiplano » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:22 pm

LOL... Harper... some conservative... there isn't a Federal leader I'd vote for today... Maybe Bernier, but he once said he'd decimate our industry and let foreign airlines pluck the prime routes through cabotage.. .

Anyway a recession is coming... it always is.
---------- ADS -----------
  

Hilroy
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:15 pm
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: Recession.

Post by Hilroy » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:41 pm

iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
At least the years before he was +14, +10 and -6

The tendancy is showing that 55 to be easily achiveable
---------- ADS -----------
  
Master of Cessna 172
It has been 0 days since I've almost died in an airplane.
Never trust a student with fuel and oil.

User avatar
iflyforpie
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7737
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:25 pm
Location: Winterfell...

Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie » Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:12 pm

Hilroy wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:41 pm
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
At least the years before he was +14, +10 and -6

The tendancy is showing that 55 to be easily achiveable
Adjusted for inflation it’s over 60. Don’t forget about the cost to service debt as well which now stands at about 30 billion per year. In the US... just their debt servicing costs greatly exceed our entire federal expenditures.
---------- ADS -----------
  
Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?

User avatar
complexintentions
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2004 3:49 pm
Location: of my pants is unknown.

Re: Recession.

Post by complexintentions » Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am

iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse? Confused the number of zeros between 10 and 100? :lol:
---------- ADS -----------
  
I’m still waiting for my white male privilege membership card. Must have gotten lost in the mail.

Heliian
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1483
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:14 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by Heliian » Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:22 am

How are we supposed to keep flying if the sky is always falling!

Recession proof yourself and then you won't have to worry about it so much.

Really though, there is no recession coming, they want you to believe that so they can make the absolute maximum from your "investments". Once everyone has been wrung dry there will be another boom to reset the money train.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
iflyforpie
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7737
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:25 pm
Location: Winterfell...

Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse? Confused the number of zeros between 10 and 100? :lol:
Not only that. Harper cut tax revenues which depleted the coffers and continue to do so to this day. He chose to dole out corporate welfare rather than doing the capitalist thing of letting businesses fail, letting the creditors endure the losses, and letting investors scoop up the pieces at pennies the dollar.

I also seem to recall our energy sector getting gutted in 2014 and our dollar sliding along with it, and it hasn’t really recovered since.

Don’t forget that debt causes debt too. What’s the cost of the extra 160 billion Harper added to the national debt?

I’m not particularly a Trudeau fan.. but to pretend than conservatives are bastions of fiscal responsibility is delusional.

Doesn’t matter much to me anyways. Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
---------- ADS -----------
  
Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?

CpnCrunch
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2926
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:38 am

Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:50 am

iflyforpie wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am
Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
The US doesn't seem to be in a great position right now. Increasing debt, reduced tax revenue, slowing economy. The corporate tax cuts don't seem to have increased investment, and are creating a big headache for the future.

The EU isn't looking much better. The UK's economy has already shed massive amounts of jobs, capital and investment ahead of a no-deal Brexit, and it looks likely to get even worse as there is no deal on the horizon. The EU is the UK's largest trading partner, so a slowdown in the UK will affect the EU.

And then there's the Trump trade war.

The next few weeks should be interesting, with Brexit finally happening and Mueller's report apparently coming out.
---------- ADS -----------
  

BigQ
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:41 pm
Location: YUL-ish

Re: Recession.

Post by BigQ » Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 am

Slowing economy? Slowing growth perhaps, but not a slowing economy... Not with the current goosed up corporate profits.

Forward P/Es are in the safe range. The Schiller is a little high, but otherwise reasonable.

Recessions happen when corporate profits tank. They aren't tanking right now. In fact, at current profit growth, we could see S&P 3200 and maybe even 3600 with a bit of irrational exuberance this year.

Of course, I am the first to say plan for the worst, hope for the best. This is a good time to not get into debt - In fact, it's never a good time to get into debt. I wouldn't put much new money into the market right now, i'd wait for more fake news out of the US scaring main street investors into selling, and then BTFD.
---------- ADS -----------
  

B208
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 676
Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by B208 » Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:41 am

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse?
Being raised by a narcissistic communist with a trust fund and a drug addled barely out of her teens mother with bi-polar disorder.
---------- ADS -----------
  

CpnCrunch
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2926
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:38 am

Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch » Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:43 am

LOL don't feed the trolls.
---------- ADS -----------
  

SkySailor
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2009 7:49 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by SkySailor » Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:30 pm

B208 wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:41 am
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm
It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse?
Being raised by a narcissistic communist with a trust fund and a drug addled barely out of her teens mother with bi-polar disorder.
Exactly. Pretty much sums it up in one sentence. Except in this country B208, that's not a very nice way of saying it.
This country always holds the right side of the political spectrum to higher levels (because the truth hurts?), while the left gets away with just about anything. Unless of course, it's a blatantly obvious sponsorship "scandal" (or was it theft?).
We have a democracy comprised of voters who are among the most indebted (personal debt) in the G8. If they can't manage their own personal finances, how do you expect them to vote for fiscally responsible government?
Governing has become theatrics. Judging by the idiot weeknight media "entertainment", democracy will be just fine as long as the players are all glitz and glamour, no brains. Our current PM represents the new reality. You deserve it Canada. At least it ain't Trump, right folks???
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:39 pm

BigQ wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 am
Slowing economy? Slowing growth perhaps, but not a slowing economy... Not with the current goosed up corporate profits.

Forward P/Es are in the safe range. The Schiller is a little high, but otherwise reasonable.

Recessions happen when corporate profits tank. They aren't tanking right now. In fact, at current profit growth, we could see S&P 3200 and maybe even 3600 with a bit of irrational exuberance this year.

Of course, I am the first to say plan for the worst, hope for the best. This is a good time to not get into debt - In fact, it's never a good time to get into debt. I wouldn't put much new money into the market right now, i'd wait for more fake news out of the US scaring main street investors into selling, and then BTFD.
Shoe shine boys....LOL.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
pianokeys
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 281
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 9:35 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by pianokeys » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:38 pm

BigQ wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 am
Recessions happen when corporate profits tank.
Nope.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
schnitzel2k3
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 770
Joined: Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by schnitzel2k3 » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:53 pm

pianokeys wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:38 pm
BigQ wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 am
Recessions happen when corporate profits tank.
Nope.
Recessions happen for a multitude of reasons, minor and major. We're seeing it primarily in China due to the trade war, and possibly Europe with new auto tariffs in 3 months time.

Depressions happen when the banks stop lending because there are major defaults on their investments. Usually there is a major clawback in the economy, think U.S 2008, and to a much lesser extent the recession we felt here. We just responded faster to the interest rate reductions.

We are currently setup for a recession between housing market, and commodities, primarily due to global instability.

The tariffs coming off next month for steel and aluminum should help soften the blow. Don't know if our election in the fall is going to help build hope in the leadership of the country.

Stuck between a rock snd a hardplace.

S.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:08 pm

CpnCrunch wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:50 am

And then there's the Trump trade war.
"Trump's trade war"? Interesting. (I'm not especially any Trump fan)

Tell me more. Is he the cause?
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
complexintentions
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2004 3:49 pm
Location: of my pants is unknown.

Re: Recession.

Post by complexintentions » Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:55 am

iflyforpie wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am

Don’t forget that debt causes debt too. What’s the cost of the extra 160 billion Harper added to the national debt?

I’m not particularly a Trudeau fan.. but to pretend than conservatives are bastions of fiscal responsibility is delusional.

Doesn’t matter much to me anyways. Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
I never said that Conservatives were any better than Liberals, or dogs were better than cats. Don't put words in my mouth to suit yourself.

I just don't like people trying to deflect from the current nightmare by trying to use past mistakes as a distraction.

And my point, and question, stands - regardless of what other past governments did, why are the Liberals running (now, today) deficits about six times the "mere" $10 billion they promised, with another $75 billion projected over the next five years? I thought the budget would "balance itself"?!

I don't really care, I'm happy not to contribute one penny to the dumpster fire that is Canadian politics. But I AM curious to hear the logic to defend it, during what have been economic good times.

But hey, go ahead and elect them again - can't wait to see what they do during the bad. At least expats can vote again! :mrgreen:
---------- ADS -----------
  
I’m still waiting for my white male privilege membership card. Must have gotten lost in the mail.

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:41 am

complexintentions wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:55 am
iflyforpie wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am

Don’t forget that debt causes debt too. What’s the cost of the extra 160 billion Harper added to the national debt?

I’m not particularly a Trudeau fan.. but to pretend than conservatives are bastions of fiscal responsibility is delusional.

Doesn’t matter much to me anyways. Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
I never said that Conservatives were any better than Liberals, or dogs were better than cats. Don't put words in my mouth to suit yourself.

I just don't like people trying to deflect from the current nightmare by trying to use past mistakes as a distraction.

And my point, and question, stands - regardless of what other past governments did, why are the Liberals running (now, today) deficits about six times the "mere" $10 billion they promised, with another $75 billion projected over the next five years? I thought the budget would "balance itself"?!

I don't really care, I'm happy not to contribute one penny to the dumpster fire that is Canadian politics. But I AM curious to hear the logic to defend it, during what have been economic good times.

But hey, go ahead and elect them again - can't wait to see what they do during the bad. At least expats can vote again! :mrgreen:
Clearly the lovely hair overrides everything ----------
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
C-GGGQ
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1668
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 12:33 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by C-GGGQ » Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:53 am

Ah but it's cut short now. Sampson has lost his power lol
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:28 pm

My signals are getting stronger.

Maybe I should check with Diadem and Gino first, though.

Good. A whole load of crap is going to get cheaper, homes, boats, planes, flights. Should see the deals out there already.
---------- ADS -----------
  

mmm..bacon
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 154
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 7:19 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by mmm..bacon » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:21 pm

Sounds almost like you are relishing the wreckage that will result, rookie?
---------- ADS -----------
  
Happiness is V1 at YTH!

User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1437
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot » Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:28 pm

mmm..bacon wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:21 pm
Sounds almost like you are relishing the wreckage that will result, rookie?
It's just business, as saying goes. Want to cheer for something, stick to the leafs.

I don't pay retail. Suckers do that.

Read up on Howard Marks, who you've never heard of.

I know you think your financial advisor at the local bank with pimples knows more than him, but he's just about the smartest guy in credit markets on the planet. Written a couple of books, but they don't have comics in them, so it might be tough.

He's largely uninvested these days, (well until the December sell off anyway) cause he makes a lot of money in fire sales. I don't have a problem with that.

Others waste 30 minutes to save 5 cents on a gas fill up. An hour to save money at Walmart.

I like a sale on big money items, and I started off more broke than anyone I've ever met.

Whatever works for you.
---------- ADS -----------
  
Last edited by rookiepilot on Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Post Reply

Return to “General Comments”