Hiring Surge

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sherryfly
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Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:13 pm

Currently, the job market for pilots is very good. However, I have heard that it will eventually stop. How long do you guys think this will last, and for what reason? I am going to be attending college for 3 years, and I am hoping it will still be a good job market when I graduate. Do you guys think that the industry will still be going strong in 2021, or 2022?
As always, thanks for your input!
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by BE20 Driver » Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:03 pm

The aviation industry is directly tied to the economy. In good times, people take frequent holidays, visit relatives and travel; businesses buy and fly corporate jets; airlines expand to new destinations. In recessions, layoffs happen. People tighten their belts. That annual Hawaii vacation gets cancelled. The trip to see the family gets pushed back until next year; corporate flight departments fly less and some close all together; airlines cancel or postpone expansion. Everything in Canada is driven by hiring at AC and WS.Once the music stops there, it trickles down to every other 704 and 703 operator. Eventually hiring becomes simply a matter of replacing retirements and sideways moves.

If you are in your early twenties, the only economic recession you'd remember would be 2008. It was short, lasting about 9 months and then a short recovery period of about the same duration. Canada wasn't effected to the same extent as USA was.

We are in the second longest bull market since the 1940's. How much longer that keeps going is anyone's guess. How long the hiring in our industry continues is a factor of how quickly and how sharply the market pulls back. A 9/11 event would slam door shut so fast that your head would spin. A slow pullback in housing leading to a general recession would eventually stop the expansion related hiring once all the seats are filled at the top. This would likely see the hiring continue for the first year or so into a recessionary period.

Will the hiring continue into 2022? If you're doing an economics degree; you can tell me. What will come out of Trump'e twitter account tomorrow? Quite frankly, I am surprised that the US economy hasn't gone into technical recession yet with all of the needless trade wars that our neighbours keep trying to start. Every recession in Canada since the 1950's has been directly tied to the same recessionary period in America.

Some companies out there have already suspended hiring due to the 737 MAX's being grounded. You'll see more of this for every month the grounding goes on.

Here's a pretty picture outlining the economy over the last 80 years.

https://www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/wp- ... cks-19.pdf

Now that I've bored myself to death, I'm off to bed.

Become a pilot because you want to be a pilot. Don't become a pilot because hiring is good today, the economy is great or you think the flight attendants are hot. Eventually it's/they're not.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:39 pm

Thank you for the detailed response. Looking at the graph, it looks like the next recession is near. As far as motivation, I have always wanted to be a pilot since I was about 5 years old. My dad was an AME, and we had Microsoft Flight Simulator 2004 on our computer, and I used to mess around on that since I was 5, and that helped me develop a lifelong interest in aviation. I will pursue aviation, regardless of the job market, economy, or any sacrifices that I need to make. However, It would be rather foolish not to get a good idea of what the market is like because if I have this information I can make better decisions when it comes to making career choices.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by goingnowherefast » Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:04 am

Ever considered another career and fly for recreation? The ups and downs, scummy operators, and wild salary fluctuations sometimes take the joy out of flying. If there is another interest of yours that leads to a well paid stable career, you could easily do that and rip around in your (insert plane of your dreams) on weekends and have a lot of fun doing it.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by Old fella » Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:27 am

sherryfly wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:39 pm
Thank you for the detailed response. Looking at the graph, it looks like the next recession is near. As far as motivation, I have always wanted to be a pilot since I was about 5 years old. My dad was an AME, and we had Microsoft Flight Simulator 2004 on our computer, and I used to mess around on that since I was 5, and that helped me develop a lifelong interest in aviation. I will pursue aviation, regardless of the job market, economy, or any sacrifices that I need to make. However, It would be rather foolish not to get a good idea of what the market is like because if I have this information I can make better decisions when it comes to making career choices.
If I may(speaking as a 70 yr old who has seen plenty), one item rarely mentioned in such preambles as noted by previous poster is demographics. I am from a family of six youngins, which was the norm back then but it isn’t anymore. Fast forward to 2019 and beyond the twentish commodity of agers are and will be in high demand simply because there isn’t enough of them as compared to my era at same age. There will be shakeouts in all industries, always happens due many reasons that we can point to. However in my view, this era and those ahead will be different as those youngins entering the work life will be sought after big time and all/every industry will be competing hard for them. You(if you are of that age or close) will be in the drivers seat unlike anything I have ever seen from yrs gone by no matter what avenue you choose.

Update since posting- from Globe and Mail this morning - just an example:
“Canada’s electricity sector will need to hire 20,000 new workers by 2022 as companies that keep the lights on across the country face a looming human resources crisis.
The industry is undergoing rapid transformation driven by technological innovation and environmental challenges, but has an aging work force and expects to hire the equivalent of 20 per cent of its existing labour pool over the next three years, industry council Electricity Human Resources Canada said in a report released on Thursday.”
Cheers
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:25 pm

goingnowherefast wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:04 am
Ever considered another career and fly for recreation? The ups and downs, scummy operators, and wild salary fluctuations sometimes take the joy out of flying.
Absolutely! I was doing another degree, however I left after a semester. I feel that if I involve myself with a career that I am passionate about, I will be more successful. The majority of my life will be spent working so I’d rather do it in something that I love.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:32 pm

If I may(speaking as a 70 yr old who has seen plenty), one item rarely mentioned in such preambles as noted by previous poster is demographics.
[/quote]

Thanks for the detailed response. I am not even 20 yet, I just graduated from highschool this past June. I’ve heard that in the future there will be a bigger shortage for pilots, and most careers as the “baby boomers” retire. I am also aware of the many issues pilots can face while looking for employment, however, I am prepared for that. Flying is my dream job, so I will do anything needed for it
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by Old fella » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:58 pm

sherryfly wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:32 pm
If I may(speaking as a 70 yr old who has seen plenty), one item rarely mentioned in such preambles as noted by previous poster is demographics.
Thanks for the detailed response. I am not even 20 yet, I just graduated from highschool this past June. I’ve heard that in the future there will be a bigger shortage for pilots, and most careers as the “baby boomers” retire. I am also aware of the many issues pilots can face while looking for employment, however, I am prepared for that. Flying is my dream job, so I will do anything needed for it
[/quote]

Well the sun has set on my career and will be setting on my life as the few years go by. Yours is just starting. Dreams and determination go hand in hand and I bet you will reach every success that can be had. Wishing you the very best in the years ahead.

:D
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by iflyforpie » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:09 pm

It's best to think long term rather than short term at your age.

Lots of people try and time the economy, and time the market, and walk all over each other and trip over themselves trying to get a leg up on the other guy in the same rat race. What's the fun in that? Fun is why we are here, right?

Nobody knows what's going to happen. Uncertainty is usually what kills economies but in spite of bizarre tweets of foreign and domestic policies from national leaders and airliners falling out of the sky or forbidden to return to it people seem to be far too market-savvy and are 'buying into the fear' like everyone else. It's almost uncanny. So unless you're trying to sell a multimillion dollar property in Vancouver right now, things are looking ok.

In three years, we might already be recovering from whatever economic calamity hits us in the next year or two, so it's really tough to plan your life that far ahead.

Instead..... know that you want to be a pilot. Do your degree so you have a backup or tick the box for airlines, and then get out into the job market and network and try to set yourself apart from all of the other individuals competing for the job you are.

If it's still like today, then you'll easily find an entry level job and you'll be working your way up airline seniority before you know it. If not... then you'll have to pay your dues and wait longer for your dream job while picking up spatial awareness, communication, and decision making skills that seem to be sorely lacking from those who went straight from a Seneca into a Q400.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by rookiepilot » Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:09 pm

sherryfly wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:32 pm
Flying is my dream job, so I will do anything needed for it
Dreams are cool. Doubly cool when clear to someone so young.

I am 50 and still trying to have dreams define my life.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by Eric Janson » Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:27 pm

sherryfly wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:13 pm
Currently, the job market for pilots is very good. However, I have heard that it will eventually stop. How long do you guys think this will last, and for what reason? I am going to be attending college for 3 years, and I am hoping it will still be a good job market when I graduate. Do you guys think that the industry will still be going strong in 2021, or 2022?
As always, thanks for your input!
Don't overthink things - focus on your training for the next 3 years imho.

Aviation is a cyclical business - what will happen between now and 2022 is anyone's guess.

The industry has its ups and downs as many on this board will attest to.

I'm on my 6th employer - been through 2 Airline bankruptcies and a "Red Alert". I've always been able to find a job when I needed one.

Spending my 40th Birthday sending out CV's would have to be the low point in my career so far.

I started on the ramp for $660/mo + accommodation and worked my way up from there.

It hasn't been boring and even at its worst it's still better than any 9-5 Office job.


From what you've written you have the right attitude and motivation to succeed in this business. Look forward to hearing about your progress.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by confusedalot » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:16 pm

As many have pointed out, timing is everything.

As old fella said, he did it at a certain time and a certain place, but it all worked out, as far as i can tell.

So, with the ''timing is everything'' notion in mind, looks like there will be pretty good options available for years to come. I didn't see it, but even I managed to get at least some sort of a career out of it. Managed to fly lots of rather large machines and did not the entire world, but a big chunk of it. And I started out in the not so good times.

If you want to do it, can't see how you could go wrong. Maybe success will come quickly, maybe you will have to be patient for, what, a couple of years? 2 years is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and that would be the worst case scenario right now.

The bad old days of needing to be a 10000 hour pilot with space shuttle time on floats are over now.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by Old fella » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:39 am

confusedalot wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:16 pm
As many have pointed out, timing is everything.

As old fella said, he did it at a certain time and a certain place, but it all worked out, as far as i can tell.

So, with the ''timing is everything'' notion in mind, looks like there will be pretty good options available for years to come. I didn't see it, but even I managed to get at least some sort of a career out of it. Managed to fly lots of rather large machines and did not the entire world, but a big chunk of it. And I started out in the not so good times.

If you want to do it, can't see how you could go wrong. Maybe success will come quickly, maybe you will have to be patient for, what, a couple of years? 2 years is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and that would be the worst case scenario right now.

The bad old days of needing to be a 10000 hour pilot with space shuttle time on floats are over now.
Indeed. I got out of it(aviation) what I put into it and it was my career for the best part of 35+ years and the most important aspect- I survived through it all. I won’t harp on the ‘70s and early’80s especially to you as you were there and no doubt understand the difference between then and now. I personally believe these are very good and exciting times to get into the aviation industry and if asked, I would encourage the young guys/gals to pursue that goal. The positive will outweigh the negatives by a long shot in my view. Finally, as you noted the days of requiring space shuttle time + three lunar landings as PIC and graduate degrees in engineering are done and gone.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:36 am

confusedalot wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:16 pm
As many have pointed out, timing is everything
Thank you for your response! I am hopeful that I will have my certifications done at the “correct” time. In the end I feel it’s a great career filled with amazing memories. A great way to live life
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by hawker driver » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:25 pm

Old fella wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:27 am


If I may(speaking as a 70 yr old who has seen plenty), one item rarely mentioned in such preambles as noted by previous poster is demographics. I am from a family of six youngins, which was the norm back then but it isn’t anymore. Fast forward to 2019 and beyond the twentish commodity of agers are and will be in high demand simply because there isn’t enough of them as compared to my era at same age. There will be shakeouts in all industries, always happens due many reasons that we can point to. However in my view, this era and those ahead will be different as those youngins entering the work life will be sought after big time and all/every industry will be competing hard for them. You(if you are of that age or close) will be in the drivers seat unlike anything I have ever seen from yrs gone by no matter what avenue you choose.

Update since posting- from Globe and Mail this morning - just an example:
“Canada’s electricity sector will need to hire 20,000 new workers by 2022 as companies that keep the lights on across the country face a looming human resources crisis.
The industry is undergoing rapid transformation driven by technological innovation and environmental challenges, but has an aging work force and expects to hire the equivalent of 20 per cent of its existing labour pool over the next three years, industry council Electricity Human Resources Canada said in a report released on Thursday.”
Cheers


Listen to the wise information from the Old Fella,

Demographics is changing in all industries and it will make skilled employees more valuable.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by Axial Flow » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:18 pm

I started flying when I was 14 and from that point forward all I could ever think of was that I wanted to fly for a living (Air Canada back in those days). Everything I did revolved around what would lead me to my love of aviation and after awhile (9/11 really slowed things down) I was getting paid to do what I had always wanted to do.

Fast forward 20 years and 4 kids later the dream changed...oddly enough I had something more important than flying at the fore of my passion and flying although still being my love and only career I would ever want was now second fiddle to wanting to be home and spend time with my kids. I have worked with so many divorced pilots (AIDS...airline induced divorce syndrome) seeing that their job took a toll on their family life that I wished I had focused on other skills when I was younger so that I was able to do something that allowed me to be home every night and still make decent money. Fortunately after I started flying for a living I lost the desire to fly the "big iron" and being laid off 4 times reinforced the fact that stability is the name of the game, I ended up with a very decent job that allowed me to balance both objectives of flying and being home.

When I was starting out all I could think about was the future and planning out my next move, which I see now took the moment away from me and I didn't live it to the fullest. I look back now and realize the journey is the most exciting and fun you have in life (kids are awesome but those early days of slogging it out when you first start flying were incredible) and where you will meet many life long friends, so just be sure to enjoy the now...it's all there ever will be!

It doesn't matter what you do as long as you appreciate and enjoy it, never wish your time away and the best of luck with everything. I hope you achieve all that you wish for and more.
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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:21 pm

Thanks so much for taking the time to write that! You are definitely right, sometimes we don’t realize how enjoyable or memorable something is until the moment is gone. Something I will definitely try to keep in mind =)
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Last edited by sherryfly on Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Hiring Surge

Post by sherryfly » Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:21 pm

sherryfly wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:21 pm
Axial Flow wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:18 pm
I started flying when I was 14 and from that point forward all I could ever think of was that I wanted to fly for a living (Air Canada back in those days). Everything I did revolved around what would lead me to my love of aviation and after awhile (9/11 really slowed things down) I was getting paid to do what I had always wanted to do

Thanks so much for taking the time to write that! You are definitely right, sometimes we don’t realize how enjoyable or memorable something is until the moment is gone. Something I will definitely try to keep in mind =)
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