Corona Virus

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Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

pelmet wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am
4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm
pelmet wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am
4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
Start bowing. Anybody stupid enough to not realize that there are millions of unconfirmed cases should do nothing less. :prayer:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-coronavi ... 19-1493201
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Last edited by pelmet on Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

A346Dude wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:55 pm Just so I have this clear... the response from the "pro-science" camp is: we are right, you are wrong, stop talking. No evidence, no admission that some of the talking points from mere weeks ago were 100% contrary to the current rules and advice.

But we're sure we're on the right path now.

OK then.
The "pro-science" camp isn't saying we are right, we're saying given a choice between the advice of medical and public health professionals or keyboard experts on an aviation forum? Well, the choice is simple, and in this case could actually save the life of real people.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

Trematode wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:21 pm Taken in the context of the political climate at the time, I think it was naive to think that banning Chinese flights would have been that effective.

We have the stark examples of the US and Italy being some of the earliest nations to do just that, yet they are some of the hardest hit nations. I think the Science was there to say it would not have helped, and perhaps hindered efforts to track spread (as passengers and airlines connected through other countries), and hindered efforts of Canadian citizens to come home.

I don't think anybody would have argued that an immediate halt to all international flying wouldn't have helped. Or if the international community came together to basically quarantine Chinese flights altogether -- but again, taken in the context of the political climate no nation on earth was prepared to do this due to the obvious and immediate economic repercussions in the face of a threat that was still doubted by those outside of the scientific communities.

What we have happening now, is that the same people who royally fucked up the response to this (the trump administration), and the people who were utterly and completely wrong about the severity of the threat (the alt-right, anti-science, anti-intellectual, anti-authority whackjobs of the world) trying to save face. They are now engaged in playing the blame game to our collective detriment.

What we need is to shut the @#$! up, stay home, and listen to the doctors and scientists -- and save the ideological bullshit for the economic recovery where it sadly still has a leg to stand on.

When it comes to the science of this disease, we know what works and what doesn't. We don't need the political bullshit muddying the waters right now.
utterly and completely wrong; you mean TAM and WHO and the Canadian political correctness bs ?
alt-right ? what!?
Read what TAM said at the beginning of this....she was no better than Trump.
The US isn't the only country that royally f'd up.

Yes, listen to the people who say do X this week; but 2 weeks later say don't do X.
THAT is where the credibility issue comes from.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

A346Dude wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:55 pm Just so I have this clear... the response from the "pro-science" camp is: we are right, you are wrong, stop talking. No evidence, no admission that some of the talking points from mere weeks ago were 100% contrary to the current rules and advice.

But we're sure we're on the right path now.

OK then.
+1
stop talking...or you'll be sent to a re-education camp.

YAY! CRM !
I'm the Captain, I'm an expert. You are wrong lowly FO. Gear UP, wait, what day is it....gear DOWN. flip a coin.
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Last edited by doiwannabeapilot on Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

This virus is ruthlessly punishing bluster, ignorance and stupidity in government. It cannot be intimidated into behaving the way orange-faced morons want it to behave. Science or ignorance. Stark choices.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Trematode wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:04 pm Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
How does anything I said not have anything to do with science. I accept the science and have come up with a solution that minimizes lives lost and prevents economic disaster.

Once again...show me where I said anything that is not backed up by scientific reality.

Expect nothing folks.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.
Trematode wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:04 pm Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

Rockie wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:09 pm This virus is ruthlessly punishing bluster, ignorance and stupidity in government. It cannot be intimidated into behaving the way orange-faced morons want it to behave. Science or ignorance. Stark choices.
And the other 170+ countries..... ?
You are correct though, he has said some incredibly stupid things.
But if you were a governor of a state, couldn't your genius override that and you'd be a hero ? Couldn't you flip a switch and you'd have quintuple the amount of PPE and a vaccine overnight?
At least he isn't giving masks away to the country that started the nightmare.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

pelmet wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:10 pm How does anything I said not have anything to do with science. I accept the science and have come up with a solution that minimizes lives lost and prevents economic disaster.

Once again...show me where I said anything that is not backed up by scientific reality.

Expect nothing folks.
Listen to your health experts. You are not one of them.

As somebody else mentioned, it would be as ridiculous as a public health official coming up to your flight deck and telling you how to operate your aircraft.
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Soyer
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Soyer »

Rockie wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm
pelmet wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am
4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...


Rockie - that same statistic modelling that you are leveraging suggests the actual number of infected in 4-8 times that reported. As you see them now reporting they also understand that a significant number of people have very mild symptoms and so those infected rate numbers are likely much higher with a resultant death rate percentage much lower.


This crisis has evolved quickly and the science has changed almost as quickly since they are still learning. I think the reasoned argument here on this forum is NOT to ignore scientific advice and go out (stay in!!!) but to look at it critically and question. The reason that our politicians and the doctors/scientists they have on screen say so little is that they don't have all the answers and are more fearful that critical debate will result in people not taking it seriously then the fear of being untruthful.

What is true is that EVERY statistical model and every respected doctor/scientist/tactician says that when we come out of isolation the virus WILL spike again. All we are doing, at the moment, is trying to spread the infections over time so that the health system can cope for as long as possible. The hope now is that this time will allow another approach that will work - vaccine etc. That is something that no politicians discuss- watch them dance around it - and something the TV doctors and scientists don't yet discuss .
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

doiwannabeapilot wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:13 pm The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.

We should be coming together to deal with this with the tools of science and evidence-based decision making. Not sowing division.

I encourage you to think about that instead of pursuing the same tired ideological arguments that set the stage for the bungled western response to this crisis.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

https://www.macleans.ca/society/science ... ple-steps/

Yes, he is edumacated.

Pelmet, you might like this article.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

the bungled response was not stopping travel (movement of the virus) SCIENCE.
because of political correctness.....IDEOLOGICAL.

Who was sowing division......its science.

Thanks for the encouragement.
Trematode wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:30 pm
doiwannabeapilot wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:13 pm The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.

We should be coming together to deal with this with the tools of science and evidence-based decision making. Not sowing division.

I encourage you to think about that instead of pursuing the same tired ideological arguments that set the stage for the bungled western response to this crisis.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

doiwannabeapilot wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:36 pm the bungled response was not stopping travel (movement of the virus) SCIENCE.
because of political correctness, economics. IDEOLOGICAL.

Who was sowing division......its science.

Thanks for the encouragement.

I would agree that NOT stopping all international travel was a mistake.

But is that what you're talking about? Because it seems to me you're trying to imply that the government's decision not to restrict CHINESE flights was to blame, here. It's been a theme I've been seeing more and more on the internet. Somehow implying that our top health officials didn't pursue this course of action because of political pressure. This is nonsense.

The USA and Italy both banned chinese flights early (on ideological -- not scientific -- grounds, and to help with political optics), and they were hardest hit. The science didn't support restricting Chinese flights only.

I think it's clear to anyone a blanket ban on international flying early in this crisis would have helped impede international spread of this disease, but there was zero political or social will to do this. Look at the beginning of this thread as an example -- half of the people now posting here righteously, were deriding Eric for thinking it was going to be a black swan event.

I would agree that not stopping all travel early was a mistake, but to shut down all flying at that point in time would have been to clearly and immediately tank the world economy, would have taken international cooperation that would not have been forthcoming, and would have been unrealistic at the time, given NOBODY in politics in the western world had the balls to go to such extreme measures so early.

To weasel around and try to blame this on SJWs or Leftists based on their politics is reprehensible, frankly.
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Last edited by Trematode on Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

doiwannabeapilot wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:33 pm https://www.macleans.ca/society/science ... ple-steps/

Yes, he is edumacated.

Pelmet, you might like this article.
Without step one you don’t get to step two. Pelmet won’t like this article.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

You are right. Stopping travel from China ONLY would not have stopped it 100% and we will unfortunately never know how much it may have helped.

A worldwide travel ban would have been 100x better.

However, common sense would dictate the first country you should ban travel from would be where patient zero is from.
I wasn't trying to IMPLY. I am saying that it WAS due to political or economic pressure. To think otherwise is probably naive.
It may not have even been political correctness, (although the government prides itself on that), it could have been purely an economic decision.
Even if other Canadian political parties were in power, it is quite possible that they would not have acted much differently.

I think in the future....taking that potential economic hit from upsetting any 1 particular country would be preferred.

We all want to end as quickly as possible.
Peace.
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Last edited by doiwannabeapilot on Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

Rockie wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:53 pm
doiwannabeapilot wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:33 pm https://www.macleans.ca/society/science ... ple-steps/

Yes, he is edumacated.

Pelmet, you might like this article.
Without step one you don’t get to step two. Pelmet won’t like this article.
We're almost in step 1 !
Like he proffers, it just has to be a hardcore lockdown; not this half-heartedness.

I think most reasonable people would agree; lets work out the kinks and go all in for 2-3 weeks. then step 2 !
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Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

Step 2 if, and only if the medical community deems it appropriate and safe. When, and only when they deem it safe to do so. Not one second before and only on their say so, not some no nothing internet troll.
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