Open the door, no thanks

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Canuck1988
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Canuck1988 »

HavaJava wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:25 am
Rockie wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:14 am
HavaJava wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:25 am

Yup, the southern states have done an amazing job of managing and treating the virus. Time to learn how to live with Covid instead of the fools game of trying to eradicate it.
Can you point to any medical or government source stating an intent, or even a faint hope of “eradicating” Covid 19? It’s called “managing”, something one half of the United States flatly refuses to do and now are paying for it. As for the mortality rate in the US, wait for it.

Ok...let’s wait 2 weeks for your doomsday to happen. When it doesn’t, will you admit that you were wrong?

Yeah, that’s what I thought...

I’m done arguing or even debating with people who are so ignorant to the facts and so obviously don’t give a damn about the medium to long term health/societal/economic impact in Canada.

For those that believe there is a better way forward in living with Covid, please don’t give up, even in the face of massive ignorance, arrogance, and fear.

I get what you are saying HavaJava with your numbers, but I also agree with the "wait for it". Florida and Texas' larger scaled out breaks are still relatively young. Their hospitals are just reaching capacity now, which means they are going to have to start making tough decisions on who gets ICU beds and who doesn't - that's when the mortality rate in those states will (probably) start climbing.

I hope you are right.
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Rockie
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Rockie »

HavaJava wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:25 am

Ok...let’s wait 2 weeks for your doomsday to happen. When it doesn’t, will you admit that you were wrong?

A couple of weeks ago they predicted a massive increase in numbers of infections thanks to premature opening that defied medical and even US federal guidelines. And lo...there they are. Did you admit when you were wrong? Fauci is predicting 100,000 new cases per day by the end of July, and when the infections progress from the young healthy party goers to elderly Floridians the death rate will go up. Will you admit you were wrong when it does?
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Last edited by Rockie on Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Canuck1988
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Canuck1988 »

stef wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:14 am Was this map pulled from social media by chance? At a glance, looks like Norway House, Nakina and La Grande are among our hotspots.
photofly wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:21 am I actually couldn’t find on a chart any evidence of human habitation close to where that red spot in Quebec is located. Must be a secret government site, visible only from those special COVID-19 detecting satellites Bill Gates created.
It's from John Hopkins University. It's due to the type of map. I don't know if the type has a name. The hotspots are placed in the centre of a geographic region - in Canada's case the provinces/territories. In the US, it is each individual county. The size represents the amount of cases, hence why it looks like there are huge outbreaks in random northern communities in Canada.
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photofly
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by photofly »

Clearly.

But if you matched the US style of graphing, you would find a bunch of red dots all around the GTA, for example, with no real distinction between north and south of the border. And the absence of any red dots significantly north of the US Canada border, and the absence of cases there, is because of the absence of people there.

It’s inappropriate to use this map to make any point at all about US vs Canadian infection rates or policies.
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Loon-A-Tic
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Loon-A-Tic »

It was likely only presented as a "indicator" by CTV and not the gospel, apparently that is being written by The Donald, he has all the answers just ask him he's usually very happy to give his expert "opinion" :roll:
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5x5
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by 5x5 »

Speaking of data, here's a graph using the most basic data from Worldometer - worldwide cumulative numbers of cases and deaths. Started Apr 29 at 7% death rate and dropping steadily, now at 4.6% today. Take from it what you will.


Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 12.07.51.png
Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 12.07.51.png (41.02 KiB) Viewed 1639 times
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Pilotdaddy
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Pilotdaddy »

5x5 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:29 am Speaking of data, here's a graph using the most basic data from Worldometer - worldwide cumulative numbers of cases and deaths. Started Apr 29 at 7% death rate and dropping steadily, now at 4.6% today. Take from it what you will.



Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 12.07.51.png
It may be plausible that the reason the death rate is dropping is because the denominator (# of people who test positive) have gone up in proportion to those who are positive but never went in for a test. I made zero research and I'm not claiming this is the case.... just putting it out there.

Death Rate = [# of deaths] / ([# of people who test positive (A)] + [# of people who are positive, but untested (B)])

What I'm theorizing is that the proportion of A to B has simply gone up in the recent times, given how more accessible COVID tests are nowadays.
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Last edited by Pilotdaddy on Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
drone_driver24
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by drone_driver24 »

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TheStig
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by TheStig »

Clearly Avcanada has its finger on the pulse, this is from todays Washington Post. Mind you, I'm sure Jeff Bezos (who owns the Post) wouldn't mind this epidemic never ending.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html

A Lower Covid-19 Death Rate Is Nothing to Celebrate

By Max Nisen | Bloomberg
July 7, 2020 at 1:56 p.m. EDT

The recent spike in U.S. Covid-19 infections has mercifully been accompanied by a declining death count. There were days in the spring when the country had half the number of cases but twice as many deaths. Now, at least, the U.S. is testing more widely.
And even though death is a lagging indicator, and the numbers are likely to catch up to some degree, there is reason to hope that the lag could now be longer and slower than it was in the spring. After all, much has been learned about how to treat Covid-19 patients.
At the same time, however, a lower death count is no justification for states to reopen their economies incautiously or to suggest, as the White House appears to be doing, that Americans should just get used to living with Covid-19.
Fatalities lag behind cases because Covid-19 is a rather slow-going illness. It takes time to develop an infection severe enough to require hospitalization. It can take longer still for an acute infection to result in death. Add in that deaths aren’t always reported in a timely manner, and you see why fatalities are slow to rise and fall. Note that at the moment, the U.S. is less than a month into a sustained increase in cases.

Rising death tolls in hot-spot states such as Arizona, Florida and Texas have been balanced so far by declining figures in initially hard-hit states that now have the virus better under control.
California is an unusual case. Its case numbers are rising, yet its death count is still flat. This may be evidence that fewer of those people most likely to die from Covid-19 are now contracting the virus. This possibility is reinforced by data from several other states showing that Covid cases are skewing younger. Such an age shift means that more people arriving at the hospital have a better chance of surviving.
Once there, patients of all ages are getting better treatment. Remdesivir is helping some, and the steroid dexamethasone is preventing deaths among the severely ill. Having patients lie on their stomachs, a practice known as proning, may also improve outcomes. Covid patients do better in hospitals that are less crowded and overwhelmed, which many have been, until recently.

It must be kept in mind, however, that a lower average death count — say, 500 a day — is still tragic. And if the U.S. continues to add 50,000-plus new cases a day, the number of deaths will rise. Rampant case growth will inevitably breach measures that lead to better outcomes.
If current trends continue, the virus will inevitably spread to more older Americans and other vulnerable people in households with those who get out into the community. Few states provide housing for infected people to wait out the virus.
And as hospitals in some hot spots fill up, the crowding will lead to more deaths — from Covid-19 as well as other illnesses for which people cannot get care.
Nor is death is the only concern raised by rising infection rates. Covid-19 may also cause significant harm to those who survive. Organ damage might be lasting, and extended time in a hospital or on a ventilator can weaken people for months.

The long-term consequences of infection, still poorly understood, are not included in the data that appear on state and national dashboards. But it’s obvious that with the numbers the U.S. has seen in the past month — more than a million new infections and more than 30,000 people hospitalized — many more people, and the health system, will feel the effects for years to come.
Covid patients probably have a better chance of survival now than they did in March. They’ll almost certainly have even better odds a few months hence. But that’s no reason to allow infections to keep soaring.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Max Nisen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering biotech, pharma and health care. He previously wrote about management and corporate strategy for Quartz and Business Insider.
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redlaser
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by redlaser »

Americans have the plague, don't let them contiminated our country and people, Trudeau must build a wall or put up a chicken fence to keep them out,
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schnitzel2k3
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

There is a business term to which I cannot recall that describes the optimization of repetition. I would imagine as time ticks on, like everything, we become more efficient at treating the virus, thereby reducing mortality rates.

The biggest issues we faced in the beginning of this pandemic thanks to China failing to share information regarding severity and hoarding supplies, were shortages of PPE and ventilators. I don't believe hospitals are suffering from PPE or ventilator shortages anymore now that production lines have had a chance to play catchup.

Anybody else read those articles where they sampled sewage in Spain from March 2019 and are finding samples of Covid-19 as far back as then, nearly 9 months prior to the first documented cases in China.
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Launchpad1
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Launchpad1 »

Trudeau must build a wall or put up a chicken fence to keep them out,
I say we go all out and use a piece of string!
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mixturerich
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by mixturerich »

HavaJava wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:25 am Time to learn how to live with Covid
Time to learn to die with Covid.

Fixed it for you.
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Inverted2
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Inverted2 »

I don't think the death rate is any worse than a bad strain of the flu. If the death rate was really that bad people would be dropping everywhere and the hospitals would be overwhelmed. That is not the case.

I know of a person who's relative died in a nursing home, and they marked it down as the COVID without even testing them.
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photofly
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by photofly »

Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?
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DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
Inverted2
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by Inverted2 »

Well what are we supposed to do? Everything we do has some risk. Driving to work, sports, recreational activities, catching a viral infection etc. We can’t go on indefinitely as we are. There will be no economy and no jobs for many and a low quality of life.
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EPR
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by EPR »

Just wash your goddamned disease carrying feces covered filthy hands!
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Last edited by EPR on Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Keep the dirty side down.
pelmet
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by pelmet »

photofly wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:26 pm Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?
Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.
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flyguy73
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by flyguy73 »

Inverted2 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:23 pm I don't think the death rate is any worse than a bad strain of the flu. If the death rate was really that bad people would be dropping everywhere and the hospitals would be overwhelmed. That is not the case.
Have you not noticed the lockdown we've been under for 4 months? This has resulted in people NOT dropping like flies. At even a 1% fatality rate (it's probably higher than this), this means 370,000 Canadians would die from getting this. About 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year, and it kills about 500-1500.
I know of a person who's relative died in a nursing home, and they marked it down as the COVID without even testing them.
Do you know of someone who has died from the flu? Probably not, so it disproves your own point.

So yeah, this ain't the flu and stop thinking that it is.
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flyguy73
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Re: Open the door, no thanks

Post by flyguy73 »

pelmet wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:00 am
photofly wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:26 pm Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?
Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.
This is not the flu. 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year and 500-1500 die from it. Already 100,000+ Canadians have had COVID-19 and 8500+ have died from it. COVID-19 is 10x more deadly than the flu. If flying suddenly became 10x more deadly, you better believe something would be done to fix it. Like, I don't know, grounding all planes that have a tendency to crash suddenly?
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