C-FTBD

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hydraulic fluid
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by hydraulic fluid » Fri Jan 16, 2009 1:04 pm

Snoopy....fill us in on what happened..........
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tcraft
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by tcraft » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:28 pm

-One R 1340 H1G; probably gonna fail sooner or later...
-One R 985; probably make it to TBO w/ out a catastrophic failure...
-Two R 985s; Well - your probably just got watered down a little, don't you think?
[/quote]

Eh?
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grimey
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by grimey » Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:06 pm

tcraft wrote:
HS-748 2A wrote:-One R 1340 H1G; probably gonna fail sooner or later...
-One R 985; probably make it to TBO w/ out a catastrophic failure...
-Two R 985s; Well - your probably just got watered down a little, don't you think?
Eh?
A plane with 2 engines is more likely to have a single engine fail that a single engine plane is to have its only engine fail, assuming the engines are identical and stressed in the same way. If you need both engines running in order to remain in the air, a twin isn't necessarily as safe as you think.
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Ballsssssss
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by Ballsssssss » Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:19 am

Here's the math assuming that the R985 will fail one out of two thousand flights:

Probability that LH Engine fails = 1/2000
Probability that RH Engine fails = 1/2000
Probability that both engines fail = (1/2000) * (1/2000) = 1/4 000 000
Probability that either engine fails = (1/2000) + (1/2000) - (1/4 000 000) = 1.9995/2000

Almost twice as likely to have an engine failure in a twin Beech. Now the question is are you almost twice as likely to have a successful landing in a Beech 18 on one engine as opposed to a single with no engine?
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brent
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by brent » Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:16 am

Should you require any more information concerning this plane please do not hesitate to contact me as we have been appointed to remarket plane.
Brent Nixon
National Repo Center
Phone # 866-524-7376, Fax # 705-524-5300
E-mail: brent@nationalrepocenter.com
Web: www.nationalrepocenter.com
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Fatass
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Re: C-FTBD

Post by Fatass » Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:52 am

Ballsssssss wrote:Here's the math assuming that the R985 will fail one out of two thousand flights:

Probability that LH Engine fails = 1/2000
Probability that RH Engine fails = 1/2000
Probability that both engines fail = (1/2000) * (1/2000) = 1/4 000 000
Probability that either engine fails = (1/2000) + (1/2000) - (1/4 000 000) = 1.9995/2000

Almost twice as likely to have an engine failure in a twin Beech. Now the question is are you almost twice as likely to have a successful landing in a Beech 18 on one engine as opposed to a single with no engine?
I know its trivial, but, your equation only considers the engines being operationally unrelated. But they share something in common: fuel. What are the odds of the 1/2000 chance of engine failure being caused by contaminated fuel? This could suddenly apply to both sides, making the odds of both engines failing a lot higher than 1/4 000 000. :rolleyes:
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