F-35 looking more like white elephant

[frosti]

Nobody is disputing the amazing technology and capability the F 35 represents, the issue in my mind is can we afford it.

If we can afford to keep the CBC going year, after painful year, we can afford to field a fleet of F-35's. Everything else costs more and doesn't even come close to what the JSF has for tech. Hell, the F-22 is basically a 4.5gen fighter until it gets the F35's avionics.

[trampbike]

If we can afford to keep the CBC going year, after painful year, we can afford to field a fleet of F-35's.

Even though I agree with you on the F35 subject, I must say that this sort of false argument (or is "logical fallacy" more appropriate in this case? My english is not good enough to discern both) doesn't bring anything to the debate and reduces the credibility of your posts.

[Rockie]

Nobody is disputing the amazing technology and capability the F 35 represents, the issue in my mind is can we afford it.

If we can afford to keep the CBC going year, after painful year, we can afford to field a fleet of F-35's. Everything else costs more and doesn't even come close to what the JSF has for tech. Hell, the F-22 is basically a 4.5gen fighter until it gets the F35's avionics.

Nobody knows how much the F35's will cost except so far there doesn't seem to be an upper end. Lockheed doesn't even know so neither does the US DOD or US government. Since they don't know (and are pretty damned worried about it) it's impossible that the Canadian government would know either.

But we're supposed to believe frosti and AuxBatOn do?

I don't think so.

[frosti]

Even though I agree with you on the F35 subject, I must say that this sort of false argument (or is "logical fallacy" more appropriate in this case? My english is not good enough to discern both) doesn't bring anything to the debate and reduces the credibility of your posts.

The debate really is pointless. People will believe what they feel, not what facts and rational thought prove otherwise.



Like I've said before, the JSF outcome in Canada will not depend on what your average Canadian citizen thinks. With a Conservative majority we basically elected to buy the F35. I have a strange suspicion that those against the purchase are also still sour from last May.

[Rockie]

Personally I'm against purchasing anything I don't know the cost of regardless of who the government is. I dare say if it were the Liberals you would be too, but for some reason because the Conservatives are in power it's A-OK.

AuxBatOn I think is just looking forward to a shiny new toy. In his position I might be too.

[cdnpilot77]

I have a strange suspicion that those against the purchase are also still sour from last May.

Couldn't be further from the truth, at least for me.

[Mostly Harmless]

It was the Liberals who originally brokered the deal for the F 35's, and it just happens to be the Conservatives who are in power to finalize the deal; it was the Liberal's who chose the F 35 and put our money into the project in order to secure some of the research and construction contracts, in order to create some jobs for Canadians out of the deal.

I don't really care what we buy at this point, but we need to buy something to replace our F 18's. For those who want nothing... you live in a lovely fantasy world and I hope the weather there is nice and that the skies are pink and filled with cotton candy clouds. For those arguing that we need to buy F 18's again because we have them now and the other planes are new and therefore scary... well, with that logic, I think we should buy Sabre's. We had them a long time ago, and they performed great. They can be had cheap and we know them. Of course, they are only single engine... maybe we need to start producing the CF 100 again. That has 2 engines, was made in Canada and it is a proven type.

God people... get a grip. We piss and moan in this country every time the government needs to spend money on the military, only to bitch about the fact our military has no capability when we need them... or that we depend upon the US for our sovereign defence and that we have no autonomy to make our own decisions in the world. You CAN'T have it both ways. The reason we are having to spend massive amounts of money on our military now is because it has been the budgetary whipping boy of the government for decades now... every government, Liberal and Conservative alike... and it is so damn run down that they are falling apart. We need new planes... NEW planes. We need new ships. We need new vehicles, and all the crap that comes with it. Every branch has received new equipment or is in the process of receiving new equipment. New ships are being built... not one of you is bitching about that. New trucks were bought... not a peep. The amount of griping over new planes has reached a point that it is just downright frustrating. Military doctrine... control the high ground. Since world war 2, that has meant the sky. Because everything on the ground and sea can be destroyed by a plane. Since I doubt any of us knows the exact (and secret) capabilities of any of these aircraft, none of us is an expert. If it is really this big of a deal to you, personally, join the military and get involved in the procurement process or, run for election and join the procurement process. But quit bitching. I hope that at the end of the day, we get something useful in a quantity large enough to do the job, at a fair price... unlike the EH 101 fiasco. A Helicopter so nice, we bought it twice... all over this kind of political bullshit.

I'm off to pour myself a drink.

[AuxBatOn]

Nobody knows how much the F35's will cost except so far there doesn't seem to be an upper end. Lockheed doesn't even know so neither does the US DOD or US government. Since they don't know (and are pretty damned worried about it) it's impossible that the Canadian government would know either.

But we're supposed to believe frosti and AuxBatOn do?

I don't think so.

I'm basing my remarks on facts. Here they are again:

F-35 LRIP 4 airframe (with engine): 125M$
F/A-18E/F: 130M$
Rafale: 125M$
Eurofighter: 140M$

The first one is still in low rate initial production and the price is expected to reduce. The last 3 are what the planes were bought for. Like I said, even if the program is 170% the expected purchase price (75M$, not including inflation), we are still doing well, and that is not including the economic benefits of having the JSF in Canada (parts building, technology and returns when non-participant countries buy the JSF) and the obvious tactical advantage the JSF will being over the other 3.

[Rockie]

I know what you're basing them on. Regarding those numbers as facts particularly where the F35 is concerned is where you're making the mistake. If those were in fact "facts" there would be no issue. That most definitely is not the case and you know it.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Nobody knows how much the F35's will cost except so far there doesn't seem to be an upper end. Lockheed doesn't even know so neither does the US DOD or US government. Since they don't know (and are pretty damned worried about it) it's impossible that the Canadian government would know either.

But we're supposed to believe frosti and AuxBatOn do?

I don't think so.

I'm basing my remarks on facts. Here they are again:

F-35 LRIP 4 airframe (with engine): 125M$
F/A-18E/F: 130M$
Rafale: 125M$
Eurofighter: 140M$

The first one is still in low rate initial production and the price is expected to reduce. The last 3 are what the planes were bought for. Like I said, even if the program is 170% the expected purchase price (75M$, not including inflation), we are still doing well, and that is not including the economic benefits of having the JSF in Canada (parts building, technology and returns when non-participant countries buy the JSF) and the obvious tactical advantage the JSF will being over the other 3.

Unit costs are a meaningless metric for comparison. The only true comparator is the total program cost over the life of the airframe ( usually calculated at 25 years). This includes all costs to own and operate the airplane and an estimate for the cost of airframe updates. A true understanding of total costs only comes with a mature airframe that has been in operational service for a number of years. Since this is obviously not the case for the F 35 what the final number will be for the F 35 will not be known until at least the 2020 time frame. Of note there has never been a new fighter development program where the costs projections during the aircraft development were significantly understated by the manufacturer. In the case of the Eurofighter the projected total cost of the aircraft when it was in the equivalent of the LRIP 4 stage of development turned out to be approximately half of what has turned out to be the actual costs now being experienced by air forces operating the type...........

[AuxBatOn]

Unit costs are a meaningless metric for comparison. The only true comparator is the total program cost over the life of the airframe ( usually calculated at 25 years). This includes all costs to own and operate the airplane and an estimate for the cost of airframe updates. A true understanding of total costs only comes with a mature airframe that has been in operational service for a number of years. Since this is obviously not the case for the F 35 what the final number will be for the F 35 will not be known until at least the 2020 time frame. Of note there has never been a new fighter development program where the costs projections during the aircraft development were significantly understated by the manufacturer. In the case of the Eurofighter the projected total cost of the aircraft when it was in the equivalent of the LRIP 4 stage of development turned out to be approximately half of what has turned out to be the actual costs now being experienced by air forces operating the type...........

Well, even for a mature fleet, it's impossible to know the real total program cost until you retire the airframe. Anything before are estimates.

The major difference between Eurofighter and JSF is the economy of scale. There are 471 Eurofighter orders, 300 are built to date (since 2003). The JSF production line will almost build 300 a year at peak production. This is where you save money.

Rockie: Those numbers are facts, you can look it up.

[Rockie]

Rockie: Those numbers are facts, you can look it up.

Right. I can look up fairy tales and conspiracy theories too.

[lownslow]

If Avcanada had existed in the fifties, I bet this same argument would have been raging over the Arrow...

LnS.

[AuxBatOn]

Rockie: Those numbers are facts, you can look it up.

Right. I can look up fairy tales and conspiracy theories too.

I don't think there is any point reasoning with you anymore....

[trampbike]

Rockie: Those numbers are facts, you can look it up.

Right. I can look up fairy tales and conspiracy theories too.

Can you elaborate on how a real life contract between the US and LM is comparable to a fairy tale, or even worse, conspiracy theories?

[Rockie]

Can you tell me how cost figures that are "looked up" can be factual when not even Lockheed knows how much the airplane's going to cost?

So they're "looked up"...BFD.

[2R]

Maybe we should just fly kites.Not those war kites that the Japanese used against the Portugese in 1638 or those early war kites designed by Cody.
If Canada cannot defend its borders against a realistic threat we might as well fly kites and spend the money on beer.
If we are not allowed to have A-10's,F-22's and weapons that would protect our sovereignty in the north we might as well fly kites while the Russian reassert their claims to the Artic.We can sit back and watch the Corporations and their lackies down south panic as the Chinese and Russians develop the Artic.
We could have nice picnics and kite flying contests while those with real weapons decide what to do with the Artic

[Banger]

I'm off to pour myself a drink.

You and me, both.

Some people love to argue for argument's sake. Nice post though, I think you hit the nail on the head.

[Banger]

I don't think there is any point reasoning with you anymore....

...SUPER DRINK-OFF!!!!

(ahem)

With all due respect Rockie, summarizing AuxBatOn's arguments and expertise with a one-liner like "he just wants a shiny new toy," is pretty shallow. It shows bias, and stubbornness. I know for a fact and can state that ABO's opinions are not ones based on selfishness.

[frosti]

AuxBatOn I think is just looking forward to a shiny new toy. In his position I might be too.

I highly doubt this considering the majority of CF35 pilots haven't even started college yet.