Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots

[Hawkerflyer]

U.S. airlines are facing what threatens to be their most serious pilot shortage since the 1960s, with higher experience requirements for new hires about to take hold just as the industry braces for a wave of retirements.

Federal mandates taking effect next summer will require all newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience—six times the current minimum—raising the cost and time to train new fliers in an era when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less attractive. Meanwhile, thousands of senior pilots at major airlines soon will start hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65.

Emily Berl for The Wall Street Journal
A rule requiring new airline pilots to have at least 1,500 flying hours will postpone the day flight instructor John Adkins, above, can join a carrier.

Another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply, by giving pilots more daily rest time. This change is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot ranks by at least 5%. Adding to the problem is a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains.

"This is going to come to a crisis," said Bob Reding, recently retired executive vice president of operations at AMR Corp.'s AAMRQ +5.56% American Airlines and now a consultant to FlightSafety International Inc., an aviation training provider.

Added Kit Darby, a consultant on pilot-hiring trends: "We are about four years from a solution, but we are only about six months away from a problem."

Estimates differ on the problem's magnitude. Airlines for America, a trade group of the largest carriers that collectively employ 50,800 pilots now, cites a study by the University of North Dakota's aviation department that indicates major airlines will need to hire 60,000 pilots by 2025 to replace departures and cover expansion.

Mr. Darby's firm calculates that all U.S. airlines, including cargo, charter and regional carriers, together employ nearly 96,000 pilots, and will need to find more than 65,000 over the next eight years.

In the past eight years, not quite 36,000 pilots have passed the Federal Aviation Administration's highest test, the Air Transport Pilot exam, which all pilots would have to pass under the congressionally imposed rules.

For passengers, the biggest impact is expected to be at smaller, regional carriers. They have traditionally been a training ground feeding pilots to the bigger airlines, which are expected to step up their poaching.

"Absent a game-changing shift in the supply of" pilots, small to midsize communities "are in jeopardy of losing some, if not all, their scheduled flights," Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said in a July speech.

More than half of U.S. airline pilots are over 50, said Mr. Darby, the consultant, reflecting a bulge in new hires in the 1980s and scant hiring over the past decade.

In 2007, to bring the U.S. into alignment with some other countries, regulators extended the mandatory retirement age to 65 from 60. By some estimates, 80% of 60-year-old U.S. pilots now are staying on longer. But in December, the first of those who extended their careers will start turning 65.

Capt. John Silverman, a 64-year-old US Airways Group Inc. LCC -2.54% pilot, stuck around when the law changed but must retire in April. "I'm extremely healthy," he said. "I could do more time. But 65 is plenty."

The FAA's head of flight standards, John Allen, said at an industry conference this summer that the projected retirement numbers are "astounding and dramatic" and "we don't have a system to address this issue." A spokeswoman for the FAA said its official position is "to obtain data to determine long-term pilot staffing needs and solutions."

After a decade of consolidation and restructuring, some large carriers are planning to start hiring again. Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL +1.08% estimates it will need 3,500 new pilots over the next decade to maintain its ranks at 12,000, not including any growth. American Airlines recently said it plans to add 2,500 pilots over the next five years. United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL -0.05% has begun taking applications for a few positions in its Continental subsidiary.

Dave Barger, chief executive of JetBlue Airways Corp., JBLU +0.38% said in an October speech that the industry is "facing an exodus of talent in the next few years" and could "wake up one day and find we have no one to operate or maintain those planes."

There are limits to the ability of airlines, especially the regional carriers, to attract more pilots by raising wages. While the industry's health has improved in recent years, many carriers still operate on thin profit margins, with the airlines sandwiched between rising costs for fuel and unsteady demand from price-sensitive consumers.

Dan Garton, chief executive of AMR's regional American Eagle unit, said the issue "is going to become much more visible when regionals have to decrease their flying" for lack of pilots, and some smaller cities lose air service.

Mr. Garton said he has beaten the drum about the problem on Capitol Hill and at the FAA without success. The FAA said it has been encouraging discussions among industry officials to come up with solutions.

Some regulators and industry experts worry about the safety implications of having a smaller pool of applicants at a time when demand for pilots is rising. They fret that some smaller airlines could be forced to lower internal criteria and hire applicants with questionable skills or spotty training records.

"It certainly will result in challenges to maintain quality," said John Marshall, an independent aviation-safety consultant who spent 26 years in the Air Force before overseeing Delta's safety. "Regional carriers will be creative and have to take shortcuts" to fill their cockpits, he said.

Ahead of the new 1,500-hour rule, the Regional Airline Association has been testing its first officers regularly in preparation for meeting the standards, said Scott Foose, the trade group's vice president of operations and safety. "Working collaboratively with the FAA, hundreds of first officers have already received their new certificates and the rest are on track to obtain theirs," Mr. Foose said.

The military hasn't been a major source of commercial pilots for years, and the supply of new pilots has been dwindling. Among the reasons is that would-be fliers face expensive training with no guarantee of being hired by an airline once they complete it.

Third Coast Aviation, a flight school in Kalamazoo, Mich., said business is down 30% to 40% over the past five years. At California Flight Academy in El Cajon, Calif., the rolls are full, but almost entirely with foreign students who will soon return to their home countries. "We don't have locals learning to fly anymore," said Ash Dakwar, the academy's operations chief.

While no one tracks overall attendance at the nation's 3,400 flight schools, FAA data show annual private and commercial pilot certificates—both required to become an airline pilot—are down 41% and 30%, respectively, in the past decade. The National Association of Flight Instructors, in a research paper published this year, said that "there is no feasible way…to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers."

Congress's 2010 vote to require 1,500 hours of experience in August 2013 came in the wake of several regional-airline accidents, although none had been due to pilots having fewer than 1,500 hours.

Regional carriers now are racing to make sure their pilots have 1,500 hours by next summer, while also trying to bolster their ranks. But prospects with close to the required number of hours aren't numerous. "These people just don't exist," said Mr. Garton of American Eagle.

The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities. But the exemption, if it goes through, may come too late, and it isn't expected to help most aviators in training anyway, because they come from other types of flight schools.

For them, the challenge of meeting the new requirements is uncharted and costly. "I'm stuck being a flight instructor for another year," said John Adkins, a 27-year-old pilot at California Flight Academy. He achieved the current minimum for being a co-pilot, but the new rule has delayed his dream to join an airline. "You don't make a lot of money as an instructor," he said.

The 1,500-hour mandate "has only discouraged a future generation of prospective pilots to pursue this career," said Mr. Cohen, from the regional airline group. Those who persevere "will try to get the 1,500 hours the fastest and cheapest way possible," he said. "Flying around in empty airspace or towing banners doesn't give you the training you need to fly a complex airplane."

The mandate applies to regularly scheduled passenger and cargo airlines flying jets and larger turboprops. Cargo airlines could also end up struggling to recruit sufficient pilots. Smaller planes, on-demand charters and business jets aren't covered by the new requirements.

The last big pilot shortage, in the 1960s, occurred because "everybody who was of a trainable age was in Vietnam," said Randy Babbitt, a former FAA administrator who was hired as a pilot in that era. Meanwhile, airlines were expanding as jets shortened trips and boosted traffic. Once the military pilots finished their tours, many joined airlines and the shortage problem receded.

A version of this article appeared November 12, 2012, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Airlines Face Acute Shortage Of Pilots.

[cdnpilot77]

I don't put much stock in what Kit Darby or Randy Babbitt have to say, I think their credibility is questionable.

[Flying Low]

Probably suppose to read...

Airlines Face A Shortage Of Cute Pilots

[Beefitarian]

I'm good to go I just need to find a block of 1300 hours on a 172 near YYC for <$5000.

[Nark]

Beef you have a guaranteed interview with a regional airline here in the US!
Planes good enough for mainline, but at regional wages!


In all serious, at my level, we aren't attracting enough qualified applicants now. Hiring hasn't even started at the mainlines yet.
We've had a few dudes leave to US Airways, 10 maybe? The mass exodus to the middle east seems to have slowed, at least from our seniority list.

The last number of guys I've interviewed are flight instructors. Maybe a corporate guy interspersed here and there.

Talking with a senior pilot type, he doesn't want to put the airlines name on a recruiting drive at one of the major pilot schools, because a vast majority of the students are foreign.

The folks in the training department want to see 20+ a class for new hires, but we aren't getting that.
I don't blame them. Our pay sucks ass, our schedule isn't that much better. Why would this be a lucrative place to work, or make a career out of?

[Beefitarian]

My confidence is not exactly high after the length of time it took me to pass that simple pre solo test for the second time. There might actually be some difficult questions on the commercial written exams.

Plus I'm only available from 10-14:00 on weekdays. Is that ok?

[Meatservo]

Look on the bright side, guys. Some of you already have more than 1500 hours. If there really is a pilot shortage, it will be easier than ever to get a lousy, low-paying job. Hip-hip, hooray!!

[North Shore]

Ain't it a bitch when economics strikes back?

Pay pilots peanuts and slash their pensions while execs walk off with huge bonuses for effecting cost savings, and then wonder why no-one wants to fly aeroplanes for a living anymore, because you can make more money for less work at the local Starbucks...

[bmc]

Ain't it a bitch when economics strikes back?

Pay pilots peanuts and slash their pensions while execs walk off with huge bonuses for effecting cost savings, and then wonder why no-one wants to fly aeroplanes for a living anymore, because you can make more money for less work at the local Starbucks...

The top five or six at an airline make the big bucks. The rest of management often gets paid below par.

The sad reality is people want to pay Walmart prices for tickets and expect to fly on shiny new airplanes. Add in rediculous prices for jet fuel and taxes.

[Jack In The Box]

a great article here I got sent by a friend: Way to go sully!!


Airlines' reported pilot shortage real or trumped up?


(CBS News) U.S. airlines are facing a serious pilot shortage, according to one report in the Wall Street Journal.


Airline officials say more pilots are leaving the job and government rules require new pilots to have much more flight experience.


So, is this shortage a fact -- or just a scare tactic?


Capt. Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger, CBS News' aviation and safety expert weighed in on "CBS This Morning" on Monday.


"This strikes me as a cynical effort on the part of some in the industry to cry wolf and use scare tactics in an intent to influence the (Federal Aviation Administration) when they write the final rule on pilot experience to weaken it, and this pilot experience requirement is one that's mandated by the Congress," Sullenberger said.


Sullenberger said the new pilot measures were voted upon with unanimous results in the House and Senate. "(It's an) amazing accomplishment in this political environment -- to solve problems in the regional airline industry that have been the result of a dozen years of crashes taking needless lives," he said.


If the new rules are undermined, Sullenberger said it means the airlines will continue to hire pilots who aren't fully experienced. "When they go into the right seat of a regional jet as a new hire pilot, they're still getting on-the-job training with you as the passenger in the back," he said. "It means that, until they've got much more time, probably several thousand more hours, they haven't seen that many cycles of the year, the thunderstorms in the summer, the ice and snow in the winter."


Referring to his "Miracle on the Hudson" flight in January 2009 in which he and his co-pilot landed U.S. Airways flight 1549 safely on the Hudson River, Sullenberger said, "Experience matters. If my first officer Jeff Skiles and I on the Hudson River flight hadn't been as experienced, if we had much less time, we could not have had the same outcome and people likely would have died."


Sullenberger agreed that the airline industry is trying to create a crisis for their own benefit.


"This is not a surprise to anyone," he said. "You know, we've known since December 2007 what the mandatory age for retirement for pilots was going to be. We've known these rules were coming for several years. In fact, in congressional testimony this year regional airline association officials, in response to a congressional question, indicated that they fully expected by August of 2012, which has passed, that their member airlines would be completely compliant with the airline transport pilot license requirement in the new rule. As a matter of fact, they further say that out of their 18,000 regional pilots, only 100 might not be and that's because they haven't yet reached the age of 23, which is one of the requirements."


CBS News travel editor Peter Greenberg added that airlines can and will meet these requirements. "You can't create a crisis and say 'it's an economic impact, we're going to have a problem' when you've known about it for a long time. And the rules that are in place -- and I think Sully would agree -- are minimum rules. We're just starting this. If you see what the actual requirements were for hours of pilot experience prior to this, they were laughable. We're at a better level now, but it's still not where we need to be."


video: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134972n

[slowstream]

yeah sorry I am just not buying it one bit.

This crying about a shortage of pilot forecasted especially in North America has been going way, way too long.

Its only my two cents but I wouldn't buy a lot of stock in that one, the number don't add up

[EPR]

EDITED - Personal Attack

[1000 HP]

I actually am considering getting an Multi-IFR and ATPL licence. Sounds like it just isn't worth it pay wise and with only 19 years to go before retirement, sounds like I'd only get a couple of good paying years total.

[bmc]

Is anyone here aware that there is more to the world than just Canada and USA?

Just a general question.

[the goal is soul]

The best way that I have ever heard this explained was that in North America, it isn't likely going to be about airplanes sitting on the ramp instead of flying because there will be no pilots to fly them.

The issue will be that 5 to 10 years from now, if nothing is done to address it, the Colgan 3407 crew will be the best crew you've got.

[slowstream]

Is anyone here aware that there is more to the world than just Canada and USA?

Just a general question.

BMC,

Yes I am aware and things are great hear in Asia and as I understand it the dessert too.

My comments are specific to North America

[Duncan Idaho]

They should open the flying up to Canadian airlines then!

[yycflyguy]

Is anyone here aware that there is more to the world than just Canada and USA?

Just a general question.

BMC,

Yes I am aware and things are great hear in Asia and as I understand it the dessert too.

My comments are specific to North America

Mmmmmmm. Dairy Queen.

[1000 HP]

Is anyone here aware that there is more to the world than just Canada and USA?

Just a general question.

Hey BMC,

I work in Indonesia on a rotation. The guy that owns the drilling rig here just started an airline with a Dash 8 or something in that seating range. It's hard to tell nobody speaks english and my bahasa Indonesia is at early stages. Things are hopping here. Jakarta is busy all the time.

But lets say that I wanted to become an airline pilot. If I showed up with 7000 hrs, almost no multi-time, and a licence just issued for the ATPL, what are my chances of landing a decent job overseas for a decent airline? Or would I have to go the Canadian route first, and fly a Navajo for $2000 per month, then a King Air, etc...

They had an ad in the Jakarta paper here a couple of weeks ago lamenting the giant pilot shortage

[slowstream]

Is anyone here aware that there is more to the world than just Canada and USA?

Just a general question.

BMC,

Yes I am aware and things are great hear in Asia and as I understand it the dessert too.

My comments are specific to North America

Mmmmmmm. Dairy Queen.

LMAO, that's what happens when you reply in the middle of the night, sorrrrry for the typo should have been "desert" but does DQ have a plane?