The ever looming pilot "shortage"

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rspencer38
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The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by rspencer38 »

Obviously most pilots are aware of the "predicted" shortage that is supposed to create tons of opportunities for new pilots. Of course on the AV forums, there definitely seems to be a consensus that there is no shortage, or at least not for the time being. Can someone explain why there is no/won't be any shortages?

The reason I ask is because I've spoken with a few flight instructors at various schools and most seem to say the same thing about the numbers. "There are fewer people flying, perhaps because of cost or perhaps because of future opportunities. We are seeing smaller numbers of pilots at the PPL level and even fewer at the CPL". If there are lower numbers of students, and eventually more retirements, why won't there be a shortage? It definitely seems like more people can afford air travel so one would think pilot demand will eventually increase. I'm not saying all this to start a flame war because I believe there will be a shortage, I'm just curious to see why these trends won't lead to a shortage in the future/
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Masters Off »

I started flying in the middle of the 2008 recession. No one told me it was hard to come by jobs, no body told me how little of a demand of a fresh CPL was. It's a selling point of every school, the suggestion of the high demand of one's skills. It sells hours on their planes, so they basque in the idea.

However lets throw some reality in there.
I remember a posting from 2009 for a navajo driver. Nothing terribly great, but there was a minimum experience level of no less than 5000 hours. The post was quickly removed, after over 1500 hits. My assumption, is that they found someone.

Now, that navajo job is down to anywhere from 1000-2000 hours, depending on where you look. It is harder to find more experienced, specifically trained guys and gals to fly exactly what you want. So, as I understand it, there's a hard time finding qualified (type trained) A320, Q400 or any other large aircraft pilots. There's a demand, if you have 5000 hours and a type rating. Unfortunately what this doesn't translate well for, is the 250 hour pilots looking for their first break.

For those fresh CPL's, there has been more movement. A couple years ago, it could be up to 3 years wait on the ramp for some. Now that's shortened to as little as a couple months. Many of my friends who have their CPL M-IFR have long quit the industry, and given up on its harsh realities. However, a few of us have perservered. Some, including myself, have type ratings, and get paid full time to fly. We're getting to the point of becoming demanded, whereas just a couple years ago, we weren't.

Take a look at the job board, even Georgian is asking for pilots with 3000 hours to fly the left seat of the 1900. Incentives, bonuses. Many companies are looking for very specific needs. And when the fire needs to be put out, you need to be the guy holding the water bucket. Not a second before, or one later. Luck of the draw? Maybe. Hard work over time, most likely.

So that shortage? Depends on what you're trained (or not trained) on.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by bmc »

The discussion of pilot shortages is not a Canadian concern. Global airline orders, growing demand in China, Brazil, India, emerging African countries and the growth in the Persian Gulf with the expansion of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad, point to a pilot shortage.

I can't see it being a it issue in Canada unless we see waves of retirements at AC, Westjet, First Air, Air Transat.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by x15 »

Masters Off wrote:I started flying in the middle of the 2008 recession. No one told me it was hard to come by jobs, no body told me how little of a demand of a fresh CPL was. It's a selling point of every school, the suggestion of the high demand of one's skills. It sells hours on their planes, so they basque in the idea.

However lets throw some reality in there.
I remember a posting from 2009 for a navajo driver. Nothing terribly great, but there was a minimum experience level of no less than 5000 hours. The post was quickly removed, after over 1500 hits. My assumption, is that they found someone.

Now, that navajo job is down to anywhere from 1000-2000 hours, depending on where you look. It is harder to find more experienced, specifically trained guys and gals to fly exactly what you want. So, as I understand it, there's a hard time finding qualified (type trained) A320, Q400 or any other large aircraft pilots. There's a demand, if you have 5000 hours and a type rating. Unfortunately what this doesn't translate well for, is the 250 hour pilots looking for their first break.

For those fresh CPL's, there has been more movement. A couple years ago, it could be up to 3 years wait on the ramp for some. Now that's shortened to as little as a couple months. Many of my friends who have their CPL M-IFR have long quit the industry, and given up on its harsh realities. However, a few of us have perservered. Some, including myself, have type ratings, and get paid full time to fly. We're getting to the point of becoming demanded, whereas just a couple years ago, we weren't.

Take a look at the job board, even Georgian is asking for pilots with 3000 hours to fly the left seat of the 1900. Incentives, bonuses. Many companies are looking for very specific needs. And when the fire needs to be put out, you need to be the guy holding the water bucket. Not a second before, or one later. Luck of the draw? Maybe. Hard work over time, most likely.

So that shortage? Depends on what you're trained (or not trained) on.

+1

For sure the requirements have come down in the past few years. There are guys at Air Canada that had 2000 hours and were flying a king air up north a year ago. 5 years ago AC wanted 5000 hours of 704 time at an airline with solid SOP's. No mom and pop shop hires. Not anymore.

The company I worked for before moving back to Toronto is now paying 60K a year for a King Air driver with 1500 hours and will fly him in from anywhere Air Canada operates for a 2 on 2 of schedule. 5 years ago they paid a whole lot less and there were no incentives. So the shortage is here....Kinda
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rspencer38
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by rspencer38 »

Great to read the posts! It is comforting to know that opportunities do exist and that requirements have come down. I guess it is all about getting that first break.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by the goal is soul »

bmc wrote:The discussion of pilot shortages is not a Canadian concern. Global airline orders, growing demand in China, Brazil, India, emerging African countries and the growth in the Persian Gulf with the expansion of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad, point to a pilot shortage.

I can't see it being a it issue in Canada unless we see waves of retirements at AC, Westjet, First Air, Air Transat.
I think that deep down, we know that there are still concerns for Canada & the US.

In the BRIC countries, Africa and the middle east, 'pilot shortage' might mean that aircraft get parked or under-utilized due to lack of crews.

In North America, 'pilot shortage' might mean that 10 years from now, the Colgan 1407 crew might be your best crew.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by boogs82 »

While I have no aspirations of obtaining a CPL-M/IFR, I find the whole process to move from PPL to ATPL and a career in aviation quite interesting. Post-secondary education, while not a requirement, was pretty much the only way to get into my chosen career. I could have done it with a high school diploma and "life experience" but that wasn't as likely to happen. What I find interesting is that I didn't have to have any special qualifications to get the job. Once I was hired, all of the training was paid for. This is not unlike any other job I've ever had.

What's unfortunate is that in order to maximize profits, many aviation jobs want people to walk in and pay a training bond or to be type rated already. I'd personally have a hard time paying for all of my own training, besides the basic licensing requirements, and not be guaranteed a job in the end. I guess I'm fortunate working in the public sector where all of our taxes pay for the required training as opposed to having to fight for something in the private sector :?
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Panama Jack »

Not really sure what the current situation is in Canada but, in most other places, a pilot does not "pay" a bond unless he breaks it. It is not unlike a contract penalty; you are promising a certain time length of service and if you break it, you pay.

Having said that, I believe that the relatively affordable cost of flight training in Canada and the industry's universal expectation that applicants show up with a Commercial Licence and often a Multi-engine Instrument and/or Seaplane Rating, which job applicants pay for themselves, constitutes a subsidy for the Part 703 companies. The fact that they are able to pay low-wages because or the easy availabilty of these applicants, combined with the use of "cheap" and "old" (full depreciated) equipment means that they are able to continue doing business in an incredibly competitive, oversaturated market.
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Gino Under
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Gino Under »

The short answer regarding any pilot shortage is YES. There is a pilot shortage and it's getting worse.
The longer answer is the shortage of pilots is spread out over a number of regions.
China, SE Asia, India, the Middle East and Africa are probably the ones facing the greatest shortages.
While, to a lesser degree, Russia, Europe, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the U.S. are each facing shortages of their own.

If you are a Canadian PPL or CPL, there are forces at work that will make things almost impossible for you to advance your career or aspirations. Talk about timing.

We have two carriers in Canada at present who have turned to foreign type rated pilots to satisfy their cyclic crewing needs rather than employ lower time, non-type rated, Canadian pilots. IMHO that in itself is a blatant recognition that a pilot shortage exists or is on the horizon in Canada. If these kinds of pilot vacancies aren't first legitimately offered to and filled by Canadian pilots our home industry is surely in trouble and the reality of foreign carriers operating and competing here can't be that far off.

Gino Under :partyman:
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Gilles Hudicourt »

Just a small correction Gino. I talked a few days ago to a Canadian 737 captain who flew last year with a foreign F/O. The guy in question was 737 type-rated, but he was everything but experienced. On one of his first flights on the 737 out of Toronto, the guy de-iced for the first time in his career.......
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by KAG »

There may actually be a shortage looming on the horizon. Retirements, a lack of new students and asian/ ME airlines hiring lots of Canadians might actually cause the "shortage".
So many things could go wrong though, but Im cautiously optimistic.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Gino Under »

Gilles

Experience levels are an entirely different conversation, but you're right. Experience levels are down. Way down.

I think it's disgusting any Canadian company would hire less experienced or AS experienced foreign pilots in preference to Canadian pilots simply because of their lack of a type rating, but it's obvious our government leaders and legislators could care less as long as they get their money (fees and taxes) out of the system. When our airline industry crashes and burns, or gets turned over to foreign carriers to operate, the monkeys running this country and those who oversee transportation, if they're still in power, will only continue with their mastery of denial, shoulder shrugging, and run for cover. Like they always do.

Don't get me started on the Lake Megantic disaster, Transport oversight of the railroads, and adequate insurance cover. The same government and regulators could have prevented that. Another fine example of SMS oversight by the way. AND, wasn't it a foreign rail company?

Sorry, back to pilot shortages.

Gino :drinkers:
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by CanadianEh »

Not to mention a huge influx of foreign students. It's something like 6 out of 10 people training to the commercial level who are from elsewhere.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by gonnabeapilot »

Gino Under wrote: We have two carriers in Canada at present who have turned to foreign type rated pilots to satisfy their cyclic crewing needs rather than employ lower time, non-type rated, Canadian pilots. IMHO that in itself is a blatant recognition that a pilot shortage exists or is on the horizon in Canada. If these kinds of pilot vacancies aren't first legitimately offered to and filled by Canadian pilots our home industry is surely in trouble and the reality of foreign carriers operating and competing here can't be that far off.
Gilles Hudicourt wrote: Just a small correction Gino. I talked a few days ago to a Canadian 737 captain who flew last year with a foreign F/O. The guy in question was 737 type-rated, but he was everything but experienced. On one of his first flights on the 737 out of Toronto, the guy de-iced for the first time in his career.......
I don't really want to hijack the topic of this thread but I must say I'm getting rather tired of the consistent bashing that happens on here regarding the experience and capabilities of our European colleagues. For a group that considers themselves "professionals" the superiority complex of some on here is something better suited to the school yard. The hiring of foreign type rated pilots to satisfy cyclic crewing needs has very little to do with the availability of Canadian pilots to do the job and everything to do with a business model that was built around taking advantage of opposite peak travel seasons across the Atlantic. It has been going on dating back well over a decade to the Canada 3000 days and very few people seemed to care much about it until a few pilots at Transat were laid off and couldn't find work... all of a sudden it was THE issue and seemingly THE cause of all the woes of unemployed or under-employed Canadian pilots everywhere. If anything I think the fact that the pilots from Transat who were laid off had trouble finding equivalent employment shows that at the top level, we are still a ways away from any sort of pilot shortage.

As to the statement that a European F/O de-iced for the first time in his career, I am shocked!! Imagine that... a professional airline pilot having to adapt to a new situation!! I'm sure the guy was frozen in terror!! Pilots who fly in Europe rarely have to deal with de-icing situations... that is a simple matter of geography. The odds of a European charter airline pilot having to deal with de-icing situations are even less as 1/2 of their departures are always done from warm holiday destinations. I flew with a Canadian F/O the other day who had very little time on heavy jets and had never, ever dealt with an onboard medical emergency situation before! Imagine that! A King Air guy who has never had someone keel over on him in the back!! He also had never before had to deal with doing a bleeds off, performance limited take-off in an aircraft before! If left to his own devises he probably would have left behind 20 people instead of looking to the books for alternative procedures. With that kind of experience, there's no way he should ever be sitting in the seat next to me!! Or at least I assume that would be the argument we would be hearing from various voices on this forum if the F/O was European instead of Canadian. But of course, due to the fact that he's Canadian, people realize that perhaps the experience and training he does bring to the table allows him to evaluate any new situation and made educated decisions based on that fact.

To the OP... if the attitude shown here by these two posters is held by various Canadian chief pilots, pilot shortage or not, you're never finding a job!! Apparently you need to have experienced every scenario possible before being deemed qualified to pilot the space shuttles of the skies! Good luck!
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Taco Joe »

As to the statement that a European F/O de-iced for the first time in his career, I am shocked!! Imagine that... a professional airline pilot having to adapt to a new situation!! I'm sure the guy was frozen in terror!! Pilots who fly in Europe rarely have to deal with de-icing situations... that is a simple matter of geography.
Well, the companies know they're going to be operating in North America, where we have these issues. If we hire pilots from here, they will most likely have experience de-icing and will be prepared to operate in those conditions, as opposed to a foreign pilot.
I flew with a Canadian F/O the other day who had very little time on heavy jets and had never, ever dealt with an onboard medical emergency situation before! Imagine that! A King Air guy who has never had someone keel over on him in the back!!
How many people are keeling over on flights these days? I'm sure there are people with tens of thousands of hours flying passengers (in Canada) that have never had anyone keel over, I guess they're not considered "experienced" though...
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Gino Under »

gonnabeapilot

Thanks for putting me in my place, so...in response to some of your remarks,

"I'm getting rather tired of the consistent bashing that happens on here regarding the experience and capabilities of our European colleagues"

Sorry, I don't think you're following the thread.
As for that remark, I'm not 'bashing' our European colleagues. I have only respect for them as capable and competent pilots and have absolutely NO issue with hiring them except for ONE rather significant detail. They are NOT needed at the present time. That's not bashing anyone. That's just stating the reality.
The day Canada has a shortage of pilots is the day we might NEED foreign pilots to supplement our ranks, but you might want to keep in mind by then, I suspect Europe will have its own problems.

The hiring of foreign type rated pilots to satisfy cyclic crewing needs has very little to do with the availability of Canadian pilots to do the job and everything to do with a business model that was built around taking advantage of opposite peak travel seasons across the Atlantic

Exactly! It`s a business model. NOT the reality of the present pilot supply in Canada. Unless you impose a "must be type rated" condition in the mix. Where are the NG type rated Canadian pilots? WestJet, Enerjet? Any of those pilots likely to leave their jobs for browner pastures???

"It has been going on dating back well over a decade to the Canada 3000 days and very few people seemed to care much about it until a few pilots at Transat were laid off and couldn't find work... all of a sudden it was THE issue and seemingly THE cause of all the woes of unemployed or under-employed Canadian pilots everywhere. If anything I think the fact that the pilots from Transat who were laid off had trouble finding equivalent employment shows that at the top level, we are still a ways away from any sort of pilot shortage."

As an ex-Canada 3000 pilot I can tell you quite simply that was NOT the same scheme as Sunwing's and I can assure you the Air 2000 pilots did not have the welcome mat out. This is NOT (as you are trying to imply) in the singular sense, exclusively some cleverly veiled Transat issue either. The fact that an Air Transat pilot chose to speak up AND try to do something about it is probably more coincidental than anything else. But, feel free to bury your head in the sand.


"As to the statement that a European F/O de-iced for the first time in his career, I am shocked!! Imagine that... a professional airline pilot having to adapt to a new situation!! I'm sure the guy was frozen in terror!! Pilots who fly in Europe rarely have to deal with de-icing situations... that is a simple matter of geography. The odds of a European charter airline pilot having to deal with de-icing situations are even less as 1/2 of their departures are always done from warm holiday destinations. I flew with a Canadian F/O the other day who had very little time on heavy jets and had never, ever dealt with an onboard medical emergency situation before! Imagine that! A King Air guy who has never had someone keel over on him in the back!! He also had never before had to deal with doing a bleeds off, performance limited take-off in an aircraft before! If left to his own devises he probably would have left behind 20 people instead of looking to the books for alternative procedures. With that kind of experience, there's no way he should ever be sitting in the seat next to me!! Or at least I assume that would be the argument we would be hearing from various voices on this forum if the F/O was European instead of Canadian. But of course, due to the fact that he's Canadian, people realize that perhaps the experience and training he does bring to the table allows him to evaluate any new situation and made educated decisions based on that fact."

Sorry. Your sarcasm is lost on MY "schoolyard" mentality. But since you want to compare appendages, I have five wide bodies on my licence PLUS three other lighter jet aircraft. One of which is the B737-200. Lots of glass, lots of FMS and I still can't imagine the fact I don't have an NG type rating would be a reasonable excuse for anyone similar in experience to be turned away from either of these two carriers. It's certainly no valid excuse to hire contract (if you don't like the reference to European or foreign pilots) non-Canadians.
At my age, I have no intention of, nor am I interested in, working there. So your insult is lost on an idiot like me. I'm much more interested in making sure our young Canadian pilots have a shot at replacing old guys like me in preference to non-Canadian pilots.

"To the OP... if the attitude shown here by these two posters is held by various Canadian chief pilots, pilot shortage or not, you're never finding a job!!"

No sweat, actually, I have a job and NO desire to provide either of these carriers with my 'superior skills and abilities', as you seem to call it. When they've been boxed into a corner after/should Transport Canada wake up and (if) the Government finally does something about their hiring practices by enforcing their own employment laws they created to protect Canadian workers, myself along with many other Canadian pilots won't likely be wasting our time applying. What then?

You might consider the issue here, pilot shortages. Think about the road YOU took to get to where you are today. Ponder the length of time it took you. The road you had to travel along with the obstacles you had to overcome and then consider how it might have turned out if the only potential employer you believed could give you the kind of work and experience to develop professionally was handing out those rare and limited job opportunities to non-Canadians at a time when you believed that a first time de-icing event was no biggie.
I'm sure if you were to ask Mr. Hudicourt if this were a big issue he'd likely say it isn't. But I believe his point has more to do with the experience aspect than whether or not it was a first time.

Gino
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by bmc »

Taco Joe wrote:.
Well, the companies know they're going to be operating in North America, where we have these issues. If we hire pilots from here, they will most likely have experience de-icing and will be prepared to operate in those conditions, as opposed to a foreign pilot.
We have lots of winter in Europe. I would be interested in knowing if there are more Cat 3 approaches due to fog on a daily basis. Lots of fog. Lots of deicing. Snow. Freezing rain. Hail.

We just don't have -25C, or wait, -85C with wind chill :lol:
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Taco Joe »

bmc wrote:
Taco Joe wrote:.
Well, the companies know they're going to be operating in North America, where we have these issues. If we hire pilots from here, they will most likely have experience de-icing and will be prepared to operate in those conditions, as opposed to a foreign pilot.
We have lots of winter in Europe. I would be interested in knowing if there are more Cat 3 approaches due to fog on a daily basis. Lots of fog. Lots of deicing. Snow. Freezing rain. Hail.

We just don't have -25C, or wait, -85C with wind chill :lol:
Hopefully gonnabeapilot reads that then. Because according to him, there's no such thing over there.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by bmc »

Taco Joe wrote:
bmc wrote:
Taco Joe wrote:.
Well, the companies know they're going to be operating in North America, where we have these issues. If we hire pilots from here, they will most likely have experience de-icing and will be prepared to operate in those conditions, as opposed to a foreign pilot.
We have lots of winter in Europe. I would be interested in knowing if there are more Cat 3 approaches due to fog on a daily basis. Lots of fog. Lots of deicing. Snow. Freezing rain. Hail.

We just don't have -25C, or wait, -85C with wind chill :lol:
Hopefully gonnabeapilot reads that then. Because according to him, there's no such thing over there.

Canadians are still the best. Just a proud Canuckistans living in Europe, enjoying the wine, cheese and chocolate.
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Re: The ever looming pilot "shortage"

Post by Panama Jack »

Yes, but have European pilots ever have to fly clapped out Navajos, flown floats, loaded full 200 fuel drums into their airplanes or flown moose meat out of some remote strip in the bush? If not, then how can they be experienced enough to fly in Canada? :roll:

Gotta love that Canadian pilot swagger.

Deicing an airliner isn't rocket science, even for first timer. At most 705 operations, it isn't like the FO has to turn-on the company-modified hot water heater when he checks in, then head out and spray-down the 737 with glycol by himself while the Captain waits inside with the pax, warming his hands with a cup of Tim Horton's.
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