Supply and Demand of Commercial Pilots in Canada

[20102m2]

Need to get an idea on the following and I appreciate any "guestimates"

How many students are currently involved in commercial pilot training in Canada ( we know how many get licensed per year and we guestimate that there are "about" 1500?

How many commercial pilots are needed by the Canadian aviation industry per year to replace retirees, upgrades other forms of attrition.

Thank you

[timel]

Transport Canada? Would they answer to it if they are asked? I don't see anyone else having that info or except statistics Canada maybe?

Since pilots renew medicals every year, update hours of flight ...

[midwingcrisis]

Not all Aviation Medicals issued are for aviation use. Trucking industry and Pro Sanctioned auto racing will often use an aviation medical to maintain employment/status. COPA could be a good source of data as to how many permits are issued and or upgraded.

[Panama Jack]

In my opinion, the number of students currently involved in Commercial Pilot training in Canada does not accurately reflect the number of new Commercial Pilots coming on-line for the industry. The last time I stopped by a Flight Training school, it seemed that a majority of the students were from India, China and a few other asian countries and they were planning to return home after finishing.

[AWOS]

I'd be willing to bet that there are a lot less Canadian students working on their CPL today than as little as three years ago. It seems like most students advancing beyond a PPL are foreign.

[Deadwood]

I'd be willing to bet that there are a lot less Canadian students working on their CPL today than as little as three years ago. It seems like most students advancing beyond a PPL are foreign.

Probably because being a pilot in canada, at least starting out, is an exercise in debt and frustration.

[AWOS]

I'd be willing to bet that there are a lot less Canadian students working on their CPL today than as little as three years ago. It seems like most students advancing beyond a PPL are foreign.

Probably because being a pilot in canada, at least starting out, is an exercise in debt and frustration.

I like to say that it builds character.

[Pop n Fresh]

I heard several times most pilots are about ten years away from retirement. There will be a huge shortage when that happens. Should be around 1998 or so. I highly recommend you get your commercial pilot license as soon as possible so you will be ready.

[Big Pistons Forever]

My experience in the flight training world is that for every 10 people that start PPL training saying they want to make their living flying airplanes only 5 will actually get a CPL, 2 will never get a flying job of any kind after the CPL, 1 will get a job but leave commercial flying within a year or 2, and only 2 of the original 10 will still be flying commercially 5 years later.

[oldtimer]

I got my PPL as an Air Cadet. I often wonder how many pilots trained under the Air Cadet program kept on flying and how many became career pilots.

[falcon50fo]

I heard several times most pilots are about ten years away from retirement. There will be a huge shortage when that happens. Should be around 1998 or so. I highly recommend you get your commercial pilot license as soon as possible so you will be ready.

The rumor I heard was that Boeing created the "pilot shortage craze" to sell more airplanes....should have been called an "airplane shortage". It would have been more realistic.

[timel]

I'd be willing to bet that there are a lot less Canadian students working on their CPL today than as little as three years ago. It seems like most students advancing beyond a PPL are foreign.

Probably because being a pilot in canada, at least starting out, is an exercise in debt and frustration.

I like to say that it builds character.

Haha good one, but except the M$ kiddos.

Heard once, one say he would do it for free if he had to.

[1000 HP]

I'd love to get back into flying commercially. My last full time year on floats was 2009. I've done about 60 hours a year since then. As soon as I pay off my debts I'll be "back in the saddle"

[Pop n Fresh]

I heard several times most pilots are about ten years away from retirement. There will be a huge shortage when that happens. Should be around 1998 or so. I highly recommend you get your commercial pilot license as soon as possible so you will be ready.

The rumor I heard was that Boeing created the "pilot shortage craze" to sell more airplanes....should have been called an "airplane shortage". It would have been more realistic.

It was a thing certain flight schools used to claim. I wish I kept it now, I once had a brochure that gave numbers and everything.

[currysonic]

http://my.brainshark.com/COPA-Update-fo ... -752939169

Your question starts getting discussed starting from slide 30. There used to be a presentation that goes more in depth about Number of CPL issued over 2006-2012, but I can't find it.

Cheers!

[DareDevil]

Try looking into the amount of specialized pilots that are out there now compared to even 10 years ago. i.e. Float pilots with 1000 PIC on floats, Ag pilots, even helicopter pilots.

ie:

A 737 , 747 , A320 , GV, Global X.....etc etc etc... You can cross-train and toss a jet driver fella into any of these aircraft and he'll be quite successful (operation is pretty much the same).

Now take a water bombing pilot and try and put a jet guy in his same seat....it just doesn't work! The jet fella requires a different set of skills and ALOT of new experience. The problem lies where there are a lot of jet drivers, and lack of tanker pilots or specialized pilots.

Point being is the suffering at the specialized levels will feel it much more!

[Liquid Charlie]

Looking at the job postings the best of aviation today is getting an ame ticket -- gloves are in so you can keep your fingernails clean and manicured -- lol but right now being a qualified wrench is certainly the best job in aviation today --

[AWOS]

I got my PPL as an Air Cadet. I often wonder how many pilots trained under the Air Cadet program kept on flying and how many became career pilots.

I'd say one, maybe two every two years from each training centre. Very few of them fly at all once they have to start paying for it.
I heard one kid straight up told the examiner that he didn't intend on flying after the program.

[Grey_Wolf]

I got my PPL as an Air Cadet. I often wonder how many pilots trained under the Air Cadet program kept on flying and how many became career pilots.

I was also a Cadet that obtained my GPL, and PPL. (15 years ago)

A few years later, I ended up instructing the Power Scholarship in Ontario (4 students).

Of the 12 that year (2006 KLFC), 7 have continued with commercial flying and are with 703/704 ops (mostly Manitoba / NWO as FO's on Navajo's, Caravans, Pilatus, Metros, Beech's (100, 350, 1900), Dash 8-100), and 1 is military (CT-156 Harvard II) out in Moose Jaw.

You'd be surprised on how many commercial / airline pilots are former cadets. At the smaller 705 base (30 pilots) that I'm currently flying out of, a third are former cadets. Many of them were on course during the same time I was. Aviation is a small world!

My experience in the flight training world is that for every 10 people that start PPL training saying they want to make their living flying airplanes only 5 will actually get a CPL, 2 will never get a flying job of any kind after the CPL, 1 will get a job but leave commercial flying within a year or 2, and only 2 of the original 10 will still be flying commercially 5 years later.

I can also attest to this. The year I started an aviation college program, the intake was 28 students. Of the 28, 6 graduated on time in the 2 years that it was scheduled to take (CPL & MIFR). The others never got past their PPL. Of the 6 remaining, there's a variety ... 1 is still working as a Class 1 instructor, 1 is a Citation Captain, 1 is a Pilatus Captain, 1 is a Dash 8 Q400 FO (Former 1900 and PC-12 Captain), 2 are Twin Otter Captain.

With all that said, The industry has gone into shift, were experience is hard to find. Looking at many 703/704 seniority lists, many don't have guys there that have 5 years + experience. 1 particular operator, of their 110 pilots, only 20 have been there longer than 3 years. With the expansion the 705's (Porter, Jazz, Encore, etc...) anyone with over 3500 TT "can get out of the north"; leaving those operators with a pretty green operation. This may mean that there are opportunities for those with less TT to get a "battlefield promotion" that they might not be ready for. Timing is crucial, as is supply and demand, for a new CPL.

[kevind]

I got my PPL as an Air Cadet. I often wonder how many pilots trained under the Air Cadet program kept on flying and how many became career pilots.

I can think of least 20 former cadets off the top of my head now flying with various airlines both national and international. At least that number again in the military and many more flying for smaller companies. I know many that have become AME's, ATC etc.

I also know many that have never touched an airplane since they got off course.

But the cadets are not a pilot producing group. It is about showing the cadets that they can do anything they want and give the young people skills to better at what ever they decide to do. Getting them their licences is a way of giving them those skills.