Informal data on licenses and flying

[Tom H]

Informal “Canadian” Licensed pilot information:
Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2008 ………………………………………………64,932/ n/a
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilot_licensing_in_Canada

Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2009…………………………………………..... n/a /72,819
Transportation in Canada 2009 (table A8)

Total number of licences/permits in Canada as of end 2010………………………………………………65,081/73,153
Transportation in Canada 2010 (table A7/A8)
http://www.tc.gc.ca/media/documents/pol ... um2010.pdf

Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2011……………………………………………….63,420/71,169
https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/anre-menu-3044.htm
Transportation in Canada 2011 (table A7/A8)

Private Pilot and Permits
Total to end of 2010…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..37,408
Transportation in Canada 2010

Total to end of 2011……………………………………………………………………………………………………………36,587
Transportation in Canada 2011

Based on AvCanada forum polling information (10/2014) of 151 respondents
16% of all respondents fly recreationally only
17% of all respondents fly recreationally and commercially
64% of all respondents fly commercially only
3% of all respondents currently are not flying at all (excluding commercial flights as passengers)

Based on AvCanada forum polling information (10/2014) of 245 respondents
2% are 20 yrs and under
16% are 21 to 25 yrs
51% are 26 to 45 yrs
23% are 46 to 60 yrs
7% are over 60 yrs

Important notes:
- 67% of the total flyers are 21 to 45 years old (32% 21 to 30yrs/35% 26 to 45yrs)
- 30% of the total flyers are 46 and older
(Pretty close to the 2006 Statistics Canada hard copy numbers found – only source so far)

My Conclusions:
- Available information is very limited and minimum 3 years out of date
- Total pilot numbers seem to be dropping based on limited information (2008 to 2011) 1,512
- Private pilot and permits seem to be dropping based on limited information (2010 to 2011) 821
- Only 33% of flying appears to be recreational
- 4 year trend (2008 through 2011) appears downward, largest drop in recreational flying

In my highly biased personal opinion

What are your thoughts?

[Tom H]

Thoughts with the updated information?

[cdnpilot77]

From your informal results, I would say that it's too bad, but not surprising. Risk vs. Reward at this point in time is simply difficult for many to justify. However, I suspect there is a very large segment of recreational flyers that don't read or post on avcanada for fear of ridicule.

[Taiser]

Seems like a believable trend. Private licenses are going down it seems and will continue to do so IMHO. I only know a few guys getting them now for fun, but when I got mine (mid 80's) about a dozen or so guys we're training with me at one small flying school. I'm assuming the majority of current potential pilots working on their private license are doing it for a career. It's too expensive and way too regulated to be "fun" for any many potential sport flyers...

Not sure how the "sport license" is working out, or what the numbers are for that... would be interesting to know. Personally I think the sport license is too limiting, but better than nothing I guess, and lets you break up the training somewhat... get the sport license first, then wait a few years for a private if you want. More expensive in the long run, but can be broken up over a few years!

[Panama Jack]

IMHO, activities that have, in the past, distinguished Canada from places like Europe due to the freedoms and wide open spaces, such as private recreational aircraft ownership and hunting, are in decline and will continue to decline. Regulation is one reason. But there is an overall downward economical trend from generation to generation. I am a Generation X-er, and I see Generation Y-er's having a more difficult time. None of us can expect to aford the lifestyle or retirement benefits that the Baby Boomers had.

This is one reason that I am so enthusiastic about ultralights. The Canadian ultralight category still allows people to own and maintain one or two seat aircraft and fly around on a budget using fuel from their local gas station. I know that many AvCanadaer's look down on this crowd the same way some airline pilots look down on the "Wichita tin" crowd. Suck in the arrogance, people. The freedoms and wide open spaces we have are what makes North America the envy of many around the World.

[Taiser]

Agreed... I'm also loving my amateur built and the "Owner Maintenance" category, for all it's short comings is another good direction to keep Canadians in the skies with less regulation. Some of us don't have the luxury of flying for a living and these other options are a cheaper way for us "common folk" to keep flying with less regulations.

Now I could have bought a Cessna or Piper for less than the cost of building my amateur built, but the regulations (read COSTS) to keep these "certified" planes flying has gotten truly insane.

[Tom H]

IMHO, activities that have, in the past, distinguished Canada from places like Europe due to the freedoms and wide open spaces, such as private recreational aircraft ownership and hunting, are in decline and will continue to decline. Regulation is one reason. But there is an overall downward economical trend from generation to generation. I am a Generation X-er, and I see Generation Y-er's having a more difficult time. None of us can expect to aford the lifestyle or retirement benefits that the Baby Boomers had.

This is one reason that I am so enthusiastic about ultralights. The Canadian ultralight category still allows people to own and maintain one or two seat aircraft and fly around on a budget using fuel from their local gas station. I know that many AvCanadaer's look down on this crowd the same way some airline pilots look down on the "Wichita tin" crowd. Suck in the arrogance, people. The freedoms and wide open spaces we have are what makes North America the envy of many around the World.

I tend to agree with yourself and Taiser.

The Commercial pilot pool (for better or worse and a different discussion) will be set by industry supply and demand.

Recreational Flying is subject to a different set of variables.

From everything posted lately expenses are part of it:
Cost of licence is one:
This is where I encourage those new to aviation with an interest to check out the Ultralight and Recreational permits.
- Gives them a good taste and lets them see if they want to continue
- Times built are not lost (forget the exact % that can be counted) and what is learned can be taken forward to the PPL.
- For most recreational flyers the RPP is quite practical

To the RPP
How many will really every fly:
- A complex aircraft (constant speed, retracts and higher horsepower) ?
- How many will really every fly out of Canada? Heck out of their Province!
- Fly at night?
- Carry more than one other person?

For the strictly recreational flyer it is a pretty good choice for the typical kind of flying that is done and is considerably less.

Cost of acquisition:
- New (newer) certified aircraft are expensive, but there are options that are comparable to a boat, motorcycle or other.

I don't see this as major an issue as it is played to be...there are lots of people spending more on toys that a ultralight, amateur built or classic 2 seater.

Cost of maintenance:
- This one makes sense, but owner maintenance, ultralight and amateur built cut costs dramatically
- Hangarage, is horrific
I get it though...price of land, cost of building, servicing ain't cheap and if someone is investing they deserve to make a buck as well. Fair is fair.

It is also a tough one to get around as you really don't want your aircraft outside.

But if demand was there I'm sure an unserviced weather tight option could be found.

So what else is pushing the recreational flyer out of the market?

Tom H

[1000 HP]

I bought my first airplane in 1987 for $9500. It was an Aeronca Champ. Fuel was cheap. Insurance was nothing (I did not have it). My second airplane was a Mooney.

My last year of Mooney M20F ownership was expensive. Even though the airplane itself was paid off, the combined costs of Maintenance, Insurance, Hanger space, and fuel came out to $332 per hour. I only flew 30 hours though and that price would have come down a lot if I had put 100 hours on. But it still would have been over $200 per hour. I sold it at a loss due to market conditions. The airplane was beautiful and mechanically sound. A new interior would have been nice however. At $13,000 USD it was not in the cards.

I might fly again commercially, but I think recreational flying is out, even if the cost were $150 hr or less for a rental. Plus, where can you rent a fast airplane for $150 hr? And my income is good thanks to working in the oil patch. But I'm trying to save money for retirement.

Instead I've taken up Scuba Diving which is WAAAAYYYYYYY cheaper. My Drysuit was only $3300 and the rest of the equipment $2000. I can dive 10 minutes from my Victoria home. Although I have a certification, I don't need a licence. Training is cheap. Tanks fills are about $10 per hour. There are no pesky government fees or insurance required. There are no annoying NAV CANADA fees arriving in the mail box. Any I don't worry about my camshaft rusting. If something goes badly wrong, no worries about dealing with the government afterwards...

Just my thoughts. There are a lot of fun and cheaper leisure activities out there that won't piss the wife off.

[FenderManDan]

I bought my first airplane in 1987 for $9500. It was an Aeronca Champ. Fuel was cheap. Insurance was nothing (I did not have it). My second airplane was a Mooney.

My last year of Mooney M20F ownership was expensive. Even though the airplane itself was paid off, the combined costs of Maintenance, Insurance, Hanger space, and fuel came out to $332 per hour. I only flew 30 hours though and that price would .....
Just my thoughts. There are a lot of fun and cheaper leisure activities out there that won't piss the wife off.

You are missing flying aren't you?

Colonel can't post here but as he mentioned, get into the tube and fabric and down lo "OM" style. Flying can be done on the budget if you want it to. I was just recently visiting a seminar/sales pitch on the new avionics and I could not believe seeing people purchasing equipment in ball park of $50K for their $30K airframes. I was lost for words.

EAA in their magazines and on-line is constantly promoting a different mind set to flying and promoting more of it hopefully it will take a hold and increase the numbers.

There is another trend that is causing trouble and that is:
cheap flying = flying lawn furniture and not caring for regs and safety. This I see, must change.

[Tom H]

I bought my first airplane in 1987 for $9500. It was an Aeronca Champ. Fuel was cheap. Insurance was nothing (I did not have it). My second airplane was a Mooney.

My last year of Mooney M20F ownership was expensive. Even though the airplane itself was paid off, the combined costs of Maintenance, Insurance, Hanger space, and fuel came out to $332 per hour. I only flew 30 hours though and that price would .....
Just my thoughts. There are a lot of fun and cheaper leisure activities out there that won't piss the wife off.

You are missing flying aren't you?

Colonel can't post here but as he mentioned, get into the tube and fabric and down lo "OM" style. Flying can be done on the budget if you want it to. I was just recently visiting a seminar/sales pitch on the new avionics and I could not believe seeing people purchasing equipment in ball park of $50K for their $30K airframes. I was lost for words.

EAA in their magazines and on-line is constantly promoting a different mind set to flying and promoting more of it hopefully it will take a hold and increase the numbers.

There is another trend that is causing trouble and that is:
cheap flying = flying lawn furniture and not caring for regs and safety. This I see, must change.

Thanks for the input guys...

Thanks for mentioning the Col's comments...maybe I'll post this on pprune and get some comments from there.

The way I see it, like everything else, it's a numbers game.

I believe, from the non aviation functions I go to, there is still the interest in recreational flying.

I constantly get the "I always wanted to learn how to fly" from all sorts of different people at non aviation events.

I also get the " I started to but..." fill in the blank from wife, kids, job to poor customer service.

So I believe the numbers are still there that want to be involved.

I also believe the more the numbers slide the more it's going to cost and other adverse effects to all of us.

small demand = more expensive, less available = more expensive, etc.

Would appreciate more thoughts and comments though.

Tom H

[Broken Slinky]

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviat ... 1-2011.xls
Some interesting stats from the US. The decrease in Canadian pilots may be linked to the huge increase in US pilots (specifically students). I wonder what the stat is for commercial pilots who fly recreationally and the ratio is between "worked" and "play" hours?
These stats tell a better story: http://www.gama.aero/files/2013_GAMA_Da ... 192014.pdf <--pages 25 to 29, 34 and 35 specifically
Page 38 shows the true trend of recreational pilots.

[I_Drive_Planes]

Instead I've taken up Scuba Diving which is WAAAAYYYYYYY cheaper. My Drysuit was only $3300 and the rest of the equipment $2000. I can dive 10 minutes from my Victoria home. Although I have a certification, I don't need a licence. Training is cheap. Tanks fills are about $10 per hour. There are no pesky government fees or insurance required. There are no annoying NAV CANADA fees arriving in the mail box. Any I don't worry about my camshaft rusting. If something goes badly wrong, no worries about dealing with the government afterwards...

I learned to scuba dive last year in Thailand, it was great! The feeling of weightlessness, the marine life, the challenge of learning a new skill; I enjoyed it very much. Scuba diving does have one fatal flaw though....It isn't flying. So I continue to sacrifice my credit cards at the altar of aviation.

Just my thoughts. There are a lot of fun and cheaper leisure activities out there that won't piss the wife off.

This is why my girlfriend (common law, might as well be my wife) and I have completely separate finances. I spend on what I want, she spends on what she wants, and no one can get pissed off about anything.

[Tom H]

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviat ... 1-2011.xls
Some interesting stats from the US. The decrease in Canadian pilots may be linked to the huge increase in US pilots (specifically students). I wonder what the stat is for commercial pilots who fly recreationally and the ratio is between "worked" and "play" hours?
These stats tell a better story: http://www.gama.aero/files/2013_GAMA_Da ... 192014.pdf <--pages 25 to 29, 34 and 35 specifically
Page 38 shows the true trend of recreational pilots.

Thanks for the links and the info!

Unfortunately in general it looks similar to what I've dug up.

That said the trend on LSA is very encouraging and kinda backs up what I think.

Tom H

[Panama Jack]

I learned to scuba dive last year in Thailand, it was great! The feeling of weightlessness, the marine life, the challenge of learning a new skill; I enjoyed it very much. Scuba diving does have one fatal flaw though....It isn't flying. So I continue to sacrifice my credit cards at the altar of aviation.

This is why my girlfriend (common law, might as well be my wife) and I have completely separate finances. I spend on what I want, she spends on what she wants, and no one can get pissed off about anything.

Including those trips to Thailand you wouldn't want her to know about.

[Shiny Side Up]

From everything posted lately expenses are part of it:
Cost of licence is one:
This is where I encourage those new to aviation with an interest to check out the Ultralight and Recreational permits.
- Gives them a good taste and lets them see if they want to continue
- Times built are not lost (forget the exact % that can be counted) and what is learned can be taken forward to the PPL.
- For most recreational flyers the RPP is quite practical

To the RPP
How many will really every fly:
- A complex aircraft (constant speed, retracts and higher horsepower) ?
- How many will really every fly out of Canada? Heck out of their Province!
- Fly at night?
- Carry more than one other person?

For the strictly recreational flyer it is a pretty good choice for the typical kind of flying that is done and is considerably less.

The problem with the RPP I find in selling it is people's expectations. Most recreational flyers want really to be able to take a buddy out and zoom around the local area, but they want to have that dream that they're going to pack up the family and go on a Vegas vacation in the plane they own. Most people really need a part ownership of a 150/152 or a 172. But with planes, like licenses, people dream big. Its something in general with our culture that needs to change in that regard.

Cost of acquisition:
- New (newer) certified aircraft are expensive, but there are options that are comparable to a boat, motorcycle or other.

I don't see this as major an issue as it is played to be...there are lots of people spending more on toys that a ultralight, amateur built or classic 2 seater.[/quote]

Again the main issue is with perception. People are about bigger and newer and frequently compare aviation unfavorably that way - which ignores the whole idea of what you can do with a plane is totally different than say a boat, or a bike, or a horse. Yeah, only the very rich can afford to bomb around in a new Cirrus or Corvalis, but that's like some of my buddies who insist that you aren't riding unless you have a Harley or a BMW (the two extremes) - which I might add is almost exactly the same price as owning a 150/152 (the BMW is anyways, if you maintain it the way they say you must so you don't void your warranty).

But then like bikes, there's a lot of ways to cut your costs if you're semi capable to take care of stuff yourself and learn enough about them so you don't get raped on maintenance - and I don't blame the mechanics on this, what would you expect the way some owners drop machines off and say "I think something is wrong, find it and fix it".

- Hangarage, is horrific
I get it though...price of land, cost of building, servicing ain't cheap and if someone is investing they deserve to make a buck as well. Fair is fair.

No one in their right mind should be hangaring a private aircraft if they have any mind as to costs. Unless someone gives you a smokin' deal or you can do it with your own building. Which ain't going to be at any airport of any size - why private owners persist on staying at big airports is beyond me - even if they want to be IFR capable. Working airplanes need hangars. But even there costs can be cut if people are cooperative and reasonable. Many are under the impression that your airplane needs to be hangared with a twenty foot "no walk zone" around it, then wonder why its pricey.

At the end of it though, for your hangar rent, at going rates around here, that equates to a new paint job about every five years. Hangarage around here is about $7200/ year. Tie down by contrast is an affordable average of about $720/ year.

It is also a tough one to get around as you really don't want your aircraft outside.

Why not? Cover it up, take care of it, visit it more than your mother's grave and you'll be fine. Sure its somewhat inconvenient messing around with covers and stuff, but if a bit of time is all that deters you from flying - well its not that important to you anyhow.

But if demand was there I'm sure an unserviced weather tight option could be found.

Again, it consistently surprises me that people who want to fly don't look around more for affordable - and sometimes a lot more convenient locations to fly out of. There's like 40 airstrips in the Calgary VTA, many severely underused, and many the use of can be bartered for. Sure you might have to mow grass once in a while.

But then sometimes I get the idea from people is that aviating doesn't offer affordable turn key service which is really what makes them unhappy. Its an activity to make affordable you might have to cooperate with others (again something the rest of aviation can learn from the glider guys).

[Tom H]

Shiny

The problem with the RPP I find in selling it is people's expectations. Most recreational flyers want really to be able to take a buddy out and zoom around the local area, but they want to have that dream that they're going to pack up the family and go on a Vegas vacation in the plane they own. Most people really need a part ownership of a 150/152 or a 172. But with planes, like licenses, people dream big. Its something in general with our culture that needs to change in that regard.

Guess each region and airport is different, I have found that 7/10 I talk to (in conjunction with how I present it) get excited about it due to the reduced cost and the chance to check it out without blowing the wad on a PPL.

Ether way I think it is all in how it's sold and managing expectations

Agree with you on the "Cost of Acquisition".
Part of the problem though is most folks are pretty unknowledgable on alternatives and get the "glossy magazine" syndrome as that's all they know.

Agree with you for the most part on hangarage, but personally I would not leave anything fabric outside. Rather go for no heat, no light shared hangarage to keep it out of the weather.

But as you said there are ways to do it.

Again, it consistently surprises me that people who want to fly don't look around more for affordable - and sometimes a lot more convenient locations to fly out of. There's like 40 airstrips in the Calgary VTA, many severely underused, and many the use of can be bartered for. Sure you might have to mow grass once in a while.

But then sometimes I get the idea from people is that aviating doesn't offer affordable turn key service which is really what makes them unhappy. Its an activity to make affordable you might have to cooperate with others (again something the rest of aviation can learn from the glider guys).

I think a big part is they don't know...they do the flight school routine, hear the numbers (licence, newer certified acquisition, hull coverage, hangarage and maintenance) and fall over.

Mention ultralight and they think lawnchair with wings! When in fact there are some great little airplanes.

People are not exposed to small airports, clubs (RAA, EAA style) can be a challenge to locate (and some are part of the problem)

But I'm surprised at how many I've sent out to the rural airports that have gotten their ultralight/RPP and had a great time doing it.

Tom H

[Shiny Side Up]

I think a big part is they don't know...they do the flight school routine, hear the numbers (licence, newer certified acquisition, hull coverage, hangarage and maintenance) and fall over.

Its that case again that for some reason, people don't shop when it comes to flight training and recreational flying. They spend more time researching their next phone. The equivalent would be like if you wanted a car, going to the BMW dealership, then being turned off owning one when you find out the price. Especially this day and age when one has access to so much information.

[Tom H]

I think a big part is they don't know...they do the flight school routine, hear the numbers (licence, newer certified acquisition, hull coverage, hangarage and maintenance) and fall over.

Its that case again that for some reason, people don't shop when it comes to flight training and recreational flying. They spend more time researching their next phone. The equivalent would be like if you wanted a car, going to the BMW dealership, then being turned off owning one when you find out the price. Especially this day and age when one has access to so much information.

I think the difference is access to information.

In my area, you go to the phone book you find 4 schools, nothing on ultralights.

Go on the web, you find the same 4 and no U/L

No info I ultralight centres I know exist, nothing from the operations 45-1hr away.

Many have the idea its a small number activity.

Some (the real keeners) wind up at our museum asking.

So in some ways our own worst enemy.

Tom H

[Shiny Side Up]

But most people would do more than check the phone book and the web if they were looking to buy something they were really interested in. They'd go for test drives, find other reviews, search websites like this one - which when they do is very revealing, they've often already made a very limited decision and are looking for confirmation. It also shows that for flying they primarily shop with convenience in mind.

But that's off the top of my head. I can think of all sorts of quests I've went through to really get what I want - hell, shopping for an airplane was a 4 year affair. But that model of being a choosy consumer doesn't fit with today's "get it and get it now" mentality, which is the other thing flying suffers from. It requires some effort and work, which for some reason many won't put in with flying - but will with half a hundred other activities.

For some reason there's a common perception that aviation (across the board - look at the race to the bottom with airlines) should be cheap and easily accessible which I'm not sure where it comes from.

[Tom H]

Shiny

But most people would do more than check the phone book and the web if they were looking to buy something they were really interested in.

We agree to an extent:
How do they know they are really interested if they are not exposed to it other than an idea and glossy magazines...

Much like the Classic Car/Muscle Car/Hot Rod audience they hit...the phone book and the web.
But there they find multiple shops, locally, clubs, websites and places they can compare etc.

Aviation they get the flight schools.

It also shows that for flying they primarily shop with convenience in mind.

Or lack of knowledge and information...again compare to Classic Car/Muscle Car/Hot Rod audience.

They know they want a Rod...they have seen them, seen TV shows about them, gone to car shows and talked to owner builders...they have a ton of information before getting addicted comapred to rec aviation.

It requires some effort and work, which for some reason many won't put in with flying - but will with half a hundred other activities.

Activities they are familiar with...aviation isn't one of them anymore and that needs rebuilt.

For some reason there's a common perception that aviation (across the board - look at the race to the bottom with airlines) should be cheap and easily accessible which I'm not sure where it comes from.

In my opinion...Part of the perception is the "race to the bottom with airlines", part of it is (often) poor customer service and a big piece is the complete lack of basic knowledge.

In my opinion anyway