Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

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Alcoholism
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#51 Post by Alcoholism » Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:15 pm

This isn't going to happen. This has been wet dream rumour from Jazz pilots since the day Sky was created. As long as CR is in charge all the regionals will be separate.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#52 Post by Lightchop » Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:46 pm

rudder wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:25 am
Lightchop wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:38 pm
What flights have 50 or less pax? I don't think I've seen a load on any of my planes lower than 60 in a looong time and typically they hover around the 70 mark.
Ok. Let’s make it a pax load of 60-70 on a 110-145 seat aircraft. Does that make money? Or how about going from twice daily 76 seat jet service to once daily 145 seat jet service. Will that make all the overseas connections at the hub?

The CS300 is not an E190 with 48 more seats - it is an A319 with ETOPS capability that burns 20% less fuel. Time for people to stop viewing the CS100/300 as being regional jet substitutes. AC certainly does not view them that way. The A220-300’s at AC will create their own new routes, in many cases bypassing the hub. It is to the NB jet class what the 787 was to the WB jet class.

The CRJ900 has a capability to offer long range flights (by regional standards) with a 12 seat J class product. That creates meaningful revenue opportunities and extends city pair possibilities from the hub to 1500nm+. Well subscribed routes can be up gauged to mainline size aircraft. Less well subscribed routes can still be serviced using the 76 seat jet.

Somebody on the top floor at YUL HQ knows what the long range fleet plan is for Express. There are 24 older and fuel inefficient 50 seat CRJ’s in service. There are 25 first generation 175’s in service. Perhaps, much like the C-series order, minds can be influenced by attractive pricing from manufacturers. The E2 jet is expensive and has a multi-year wait list. The future of the CRJ program at BBD now has a big question mark on it. Negotiations for C series aircraft (beyond the existing contract) would take place with Airbus as opposed to BBD. Airbus is not known for the deep price discounting practices employed by Boeing and BBD on the C series.

Fleet renewal takes years of pre-planning. Factors such as aircraft availability, new vs used, own vs lease, fuel pricing, interest rates, commercial strategy, are all considered. Another factor is the availability of pilot labour at the Express level. Can Express sustain a pilot population of 2000+ pilots as pilot attrition rates continue at a hundreds per year rate? How will this affect the Express fleet size?

Returning to the original thread topic, one cannot help but think that partial or total Express consolidation would be under consideration in light of pilot supply considerations, potential Express fleet changes, recent labour developments, economies of scale, quality control, and elimination of organizational redundancy.
I %100 agree with you. The C is a mainline aircraft and I don't think we'll ever see it at Express.
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Cavalier44
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#53 Post by Cavalier44 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:39 pm

Alcoholism wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:15 pm
This isn't going to happen. This has been wet dream rumour from Jazz pilots since the day Sky was created. As long as CR is in charge all the regionals will be separate.
If you made the same statement five years ago I would’ve been inclined to agree with you. However I believe that the addition of Sky Regional and Air Georgian as AC Express carriers has achieved the desired end goal within Air Canada’s long term strategy; which was to reduce labour costs in the regional network, specifically from 2013-2015 as Jazz was negotiating its next 10-year CPA. Now this has been done, both Sky and Georgian pilot groups have unionized, and labour costs will inevitably increase going forward.

As we enter the 2020s, we have a medium-term consideration, as Rudder said, which is the replacement of the CRJ900/E175 fleets. My belief is that whatever aircraft, or mix of aircraft, is ultimately chosen will determine whether or not a Sky-Jazz merger takes place.

In the shorter term, we have the 17 Georgian CRJ100/200s, which will need to be replaced soonest. Jazz has been replacing their CRJ200s with additional Q400s, if Georgian follows the same path it only stands to reason that a merger should take place with a single Q400 fleet. As we saw from the example of Sky operating five Q400s, it doesn’t make sense long-term to have multiple airlines operating small niche fleets of the same type of aircraft; the overhead costs for training and maintenance are simply too high to justify it. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the next five years I think we see a Jazz-Georgian merger, with the majority of the older-generation CRJs being replaced by Q400s

As for the A220/CSeries, as others have said, this is not a regional aircraft and I dont think we’ll ever see it at Express. I don’t see any market forces at present which could force the Air Canada pilot group into such a huge concession in scope. I think that the problem of public perception of the A220 as a regional aircraft comes from flawed Bombardier marketing - it should’ve been promoted from the outset as a 737-700/A319 competitor rather than a competitor to the CRJ900/E175, where it’s simply too much aircraft to replace RJs on most routes.
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fish4life
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#54 Post by fish4life » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:34 pm

I don’t think it will be a GGN/ jazz merger I think it would be a case of shutting down GGN and absorbing some more aircraft into Jazz. It does make sense from a reserve coverage / irrop recovery to just have one CPA carrier
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rudder
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#55 Post by rudder » Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:46 pm

Alcoholism wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:15 pm
This isn't going to happen. This has been wet dream rumour from Jazz pilots since the day Sky was created. As long as CR is in charge all the regionals will be separate.
I have no crystal ball that will reliably predict the future. But what I do know is that pilot wishful thinking has never been an effective strategy.

Regardless, a lot has changed since 2010. And I doubt the Express plan circa 2010 is any more valid than the AC plan circa 2010. In 2010 nobody at AC was talking about 737’s and C series aircraft. And look at AC now. Circumstances change. Plans change.

All of the Express pilots (EVAS excepted as the perpetuation of the EVAS commercial arrangement with AC is questionable) are now unionized. 2 Express pilot groups comprising approximately 500 pilots are looking to achieve their first collective agreements. Was that part of the Express 2010 plan? I doubt it. Circumstances change. Plans change.

My guess is that CR is no more wedded to the old Express plan than he is to any other outdated version of the AC plan. He wants a safe, reliable, cost effective Express network with zero risk of operational interruption. Whether that is comprised of one or two or three vendors is a detail.

So for now it is status quo. But 2019 portends to be an interesting year on the Express front. I would not be so quick to rule out the possibility that consolidation in some form will not become a feature of the updated Express plan.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#56 Post by av8ts » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:22 am

If there is a merger of the ALPA regionals I think shortly there after we will see the rise of another (possibility two) Express carriers to undercut them. Déjà vu all over again
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Last edited by av8ts on Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#57 Post by Radiocaster » Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am

Rudder you are the best out here. Informed guess, like laying chess in the dark, you would have defenetveley made a good CIA agent. Maybe you are... I also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets. I think now is the time to buy more Q400 and CRJ900 before someone else takes over the after sale service for those types.
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rudder
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#58 Post by rudder » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am

Radiocaster wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am
Is also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets.
That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#59 Post by livenet001001 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:19 am

rudder wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am
Radiocaster wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am
Is also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets.
That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Can someone explain why AC would merge Express partners? Right now you have GGN and Sky both negotiating contracts in a few years Jazz is in negotiations. The entire diversification play was to ensure no one player in Express could cripple the entire feed into mainline. Add on to this the bonus of playing Express partners off of each other to drive costs down it is a win win for AC. Never in feed jeopardy and a competitive structure to bid for new work. I do see some admin savings etc if there was a merge but AC would be giving up 100% of the control they have in pricing pressure and put themselves at jeopardy for a feed shutoff in the case of labour disruption. Not to mention the millions they have pumped into GGN and Sky to build this flexibility.

To me the bigger question is how big is Express after the A220 and Rouge take their kicks at the work. How do ULCC's change the Express platform? I think these are more real issues to address than any change in structure.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#60 Post by livenet001001 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:27 am

rudder wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am
Radiocaster wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am
Is also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets.
That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Actually, thinking about it - what if AC was to buy Sky, GGN or Jazz and have the other two, or one, or none stay in place to add competitive pressure? Isnt this what Delta has done with Envoy? They have Envoy but still sub out the majority of the regional lift under CPA's.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#61 Post by Alcoholism » Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:15 am

Rudder and Cavalier, I get what you guys are saying and makes sense, however, there is no requirement to have a common type at a specific company. Look south of the boarder plenty of regionals all operating the same equipment. Yes the regionals are united under ALPA banner, but it is still advantageous for CR to keep everyone separate incase one of those groups strikes (a la Jazz a dozen yrs ago). Pilots aren't that united to strike at company B when company A is striking during negots. Show of solidarity on days off, that's it. You can bet each negot will be a process by each company to keep costs down for CR, just look at GGN now, and soon SR, there's will drag out, it's inevitable.

My crystal booze bottle says no mergers, new aircraft yes, which'll be Q, RJ, and a good deal on E175E2's.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#62 Post by speedah » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:27 pm

I know that the Sky Regional Q400’s that jazz took possession of will be returned in the near future. They will be replaced by something, maybe 900’s ?
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#63 Post by Lightchop » Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:53 pm

livenet001001 wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:19 am
rudder wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am
Radiocaster wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am
Is also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets.
That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Can someone explain why AC would merge Express partners? Right now you have GGN and Sky both negotiating contracts in a few years Jazz is in negotiations. The entire diversification play was to ensure no one player in Express could cripple the entire feed into mainline. Add on to this the bonus of playing Express partners off of each other to drive costs down it is a win win for AC. Never in feed jeopardy and a competitive structure to bid for new work. I do see some admin savings etc if there was a merge but AC would be giving up 100% of the control they have in pricing pressure and put themselves at jeopardy for a feed shutoff in the case of labour disruption. Not to mention the millions they have pumped into GGN and Sky to build this flexibility.

To me the bigger question is how big is Express after the A220 and Rouge take their kicks at the work. How do ULCC's change the Express platform? I think these are more real issues to address than any change in structure.
Why? Well GGN can barely find DEC applicants to fill their seats so...
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#64 Post by livenet001001 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:58 pm

Lightchop wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:53 pm
livenet001001 wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:19 am
rudder wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am


That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Can someone explain why AC would merge Express partners? Right now you have GGN and Sky both negotiating contracts in a few years Jazz is in negotiations. The entire diversification play was to ensure no one player in Express could cripple the entire feed into mainline. Add on to this the bonus of playing Express partners off of each other to drive costs down it is a win win for AC. Never in feed jeopardy and a competitive structure to bid for new work. I do see some admin savings etc if there was a merge but AC would be giving up 100% of the control they have in pricing pressure and put themselves at jeopardy for a feed shutoff in the case of labour disruption. Not to mention the millions they have pumped into GGN and Sky to build this flexibility.

To me the bigger question is how big is Express after the A220 and Rouge take their kicks at the work. How do ULCC's change the Express platform? I think these are more real issues to address than any change in structure.
Why? Well GGN can barely find DEC applicants to fill their seats so...

Maybe but that is not AC’s problem. That is a Georgian problem. Give credit where it is due, as much as it pains me to say, Georgians completions is rock solid and that would be the best indicator if they were actually short pilots or just feeding the machine. If they can feed the machine why would AC care?

I also think Sky is the likely player for change, but I don’t even see that in the next few years.

All the CPA come due within 36 months of each other (I think) by that time the fate and impact of the ulcc will be known, the 220 will have found its place, Sky and Georgian will be used to ALPA and Jazz will have a new contract. To me that may be a time to put everything in a bag and shake it up.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#65 Post by rudder » Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:36 pm

AC needs an Express plan that will work from 2019-2028. It needs to know that there will be labour stability, operational reliability, cost certainty, and fleet modification flexibility within the Express network.

If AC has all of this already then status quo will prevail. If not - watch for change.

AC is firing on all cylinders during a time of unprecedented growth. CR will likely not tolerate any Express partner becoming a weak link in the expansion chain.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#66 Post by goingnowherefast » Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:40 am

You get what you pay for. Bargain labour costs will result in labour uncertainty.

I wouldn't be too worried about GGN striking and then losing the AC contract. Jazz or the next guy will just pick up the flying and everybody will still have a job.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#67 Post by livenet001001 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:04 am

rudder wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:36 pm
AC needs an Express plan that will work from 2019-2028. It needs to know that there will be labour stability, operational reliability, cost certainty, and fleet modification flexibility within the Express network.

If AC has all of this already then status quo will prevail. If not - watch for change.

AC is firing on all cylinders during a time of unprecedented growth. CR will likely not tolerate any Express partner becoming a weak link in the expansion chain.

Agree things will change but I don't see it being a shift in diversification. Fleet yes. Size of Express yes. Diversification was set up to protect feed into mainline any consolidation erodes that protection. Diversification also keeps costs in check as each Express player sharpens their pencils to get new/more work.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#68 Post by dhc# » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:51 pm

Chorus must be looking beyond the CPA's with their diversification/expansion into the regional aircraft leasing market and buying Voyageur over the past few yrs... not having all their "eggs in one basket", does it mean they see something ominous regarding the relationship with AC and the Express brand post 2025 ?
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#69 Post by goingnowherefast » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:28 pm

Most companies want to expand and diversify. They had a good thing going with AC, but getting squeezed more and more by Sky/GGN, so naturally looking elsewhere. More lucrative markets out there too.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

#70 Post by Rowdy » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:47 pm

dhc# wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:51 pm
Chorus must be looking beyond the CPA's with their diversification/expansion into the regional aircraft leasing market and buying Voyageur over the past few yrs... not having all their "eggs in one basket", does it mean they see something ominous regarding the relationship with AC and the Express brand post 2025 ?

Quite the contrary, diversification and other revenue streams allows Chorus via Jazz to remain competitive in the regional market. It enables them to provide a specific level of service and capacity stability for AC. Nothing ominous post 2025. I'm fairly certain the current negotiations are to establish an even longer program as an express carrier.
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