A lot of it will come down to messaging and how data is being presented. Somehow "flatten the curve" turned into "stay home until there are no cases." It may not have been directly communicated that way, but it sure felt for a while that was the goal. I would like to see more data being presented in a way the is easily understood and communicated, for large portions of the population, this is simply not that dangerous. The issue is, if it gets into an at risk population, it spreads like wild fire and it is very deadly. So it absolutely needs to be taken seriously, but a more targeted approach can be taken. The other issue I see, is that the more we look for something, the more of it we will find, which will make it appear things are getting worse, when in fact they are not. It would be more helpful to change the numbers being reported into the impact on hospital capacity: is it trending up, or trending down. That gives a much better metric to measure how society is dealing with it, but those numbers require some digging to find, and obviously not as flashy as what the media likes to focus on.flying4dollars wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 10:42 amI agree. I was having this discussion with an AC friend of mine yesterday about this very topic. I strongly disagree it will take 3 years to return to pre-pandemic levels. Most people will follow the herd or the popular idea. In the beginning, everyone got on the stay home train, whether they truly believed in it or not. Then people got antsy sitting inside all the time, isolated from friends, family and everyday life. The moment the first nice day hit, everyone was outside. I was even stuck in traffic on HWY 1. It felt like pre-pandemic times. I think now that provinces are starting to open up, people will have generally gotten over the fear mongering and will NOT hesitate to return to normalcy. No, not the new normal that everyone thinks will happen, but normal normal. We were sitting at Joey's yesterday (only 2 days after opening back up) and by the end of the discussion, and a few hours later, we looked up to see a fairly full restaurant, bustling with servers and patrons. The patio was full and the mood was positive. Sure there was spacing between tables and all the servers were wearing masks etc, but otherwise it all felt normal again. It was refreshing.truedude wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 7:39 amLike many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
Do I think aviation will recover as quickly? Mmm maybe not quite, but it'll happen a lot quicker than experts were, or are, anticipating. Tell me, do you personally know anyone who will be refusing or hesitant to travel when the borders open? Because I sure don't. And that includes elderly folk that I know. Nobody seems phased anymore because the anticipation of everything opening is a huge relief to a lot of people who are craving social interaction.
Now, what will be interesting to watch, will be the impact of any second wave. I think if it remains manageable with phased opening plans, the general consensus will be that we're good to go. If the impact of the second wave starts to shut things down again, then I could see that crippling things. I'm not saying everything will be normal by fall, but it sure won't be fall 3 years from now. My guess is no more than a year or 2, if that.
Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.
In the end, I think with some tweaks in how things are messaged, to manage expectations, we can see much of normal return; until either there is a vaccine, or we just accept that COVID19 will be something that sticks with us. Like the Joker says "Nobody panics when things go according to plan; even if the plan is horrifying."