Best guess when recalls could happen

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truedude
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by truedude »

flying4dollars wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:42 am
truedude wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 7:39 am
Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
I agree. I was having this discussion with an AC friend of mine yesterday about this very topic. I strongly disagree it will take 3 years to return to pre-pandemic levels. Most people will follow the herd or the popular idea. In the beginning, everyone got on the stay home train, whether they truly believed in it or not. Then people got antsy sitting inside all the time, isolated from friends, family and everyday life. The moment the first nice day hit, everyone was outside. I was even stuck in traffic on HWY 1. It felt like pre-pandemic times. I think now that provinces are starting to open up, people will have generally gotten over the fear mongering and will NOT hesitate to return to normalcy. No, not the new normal that everyone thinks will happen, but normal normal. We were sitting at Joey's yesterday (only 2 days after opening back up) and by the end of the discussion, and a few hours later, we looked up to see a fairly full restaurant, bustling with servers and patrons. The patio was full and the mood was positive. Sure there was spacing between tables and all the servers were wearing masks etc, but otherwise it all felt normal again. It was refreshing.

Do I think aviation will recover as quickly? Mmm maybe not quite, but it'll happen a lot quicker than experts were, or are, anticipating. Tell me, do you personally know anyone who will be refusing or hesitant to travel when the borders open? Because I sure don't. And that includes elderly folk that I know. Nobody seems phased anymore because the anticipation of everything opening is a huge relief to a lot of people who are craving social interaction.

Now, what will be interesting to watch, will be the impact of any second wave. I think if it remains manageable with phased opening plans, the general consensus will be that we're good to go. If the impact of the second wave starts to shut things down again, then I could see that crippling things. I'm not saying everything will be normal by fall, but it sure won't be fall 3 years from now. My guess is no more than a year or 2, if that.
A lot of it will come down to messaging and how data is being presented. Somehow "flatten the curve" turned into "stay home until there are no cases." It may not have been directly communicated that way, but it sure felt for a while that was the goal. I would like to see more data being presented in a way the is easily understood and communicated, for large portions of the population, this is simply not that dangerous. The issue is, if it gets into an at risk population, it spreads like wild fire and it is very deadly. So it absolutely needs to be taken seriously, but a more targeted approach can be taken. The other issue I see, is that the more we look for something, the more of it we will find, which will make it appear things are getting worse, when in fact they are not. It would be more helpful to change the numbers being reported into the impact on hospital capacity: is it trending up, or trending down. That gives a much better metric to measure how society is dealing with it, but those numbers require some digging to find, and obviously not as flashy as what the media likes to focus on.

Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.

In the end, I think with some tweaks in how things are messaged, to manage expectations, we can see much of normal return; until either there is a vaccine, or we just accept that COVID19 will be something that sticks with us. Like the Joker says "Nobody panics when things go according to plan; even if the plan is horrifying."
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rxl
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by rxl »

truedude wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:45 am

Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.
You can’t possibly be serious. How do you think this thing got from China to, oh I don’t know, EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD??? Roller skates???
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yhz41
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by yhz41 »

rxl wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:42 pm
truedude wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:45 am

Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.
You can’t possibly be serious. How do you think this thing got from China to, oh I don’t know, EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD??? Roller skates???
Yes. It was definitely roller skates.
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FL-200
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by FL-200 »

rxl wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:42 pm
truedude wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:45 am

Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.
You can’t possibly be serious. How do you think this thing got from China to, oh I don’t know, EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD??? Roller skates???

And how do you think all the “community spread” happened? Some of it was from our flight attendants who got sick, didn’t know it, kept showing up to work, infecting more travellers, then going home and infecting all thier family and friends before finally booking off sick.

In the old days disease was spread by ship, or caravans coming along the Silk Road. Today it’s spread by 300+ people packing into a metal tube for 12 hours and flying half way around the globe.
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florch
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by florch »

rxl wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:42 pm
truedude wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:45 am

Another major point that I think needs to be highlighted by the airlines, is that (as far as I have been able to find) is that there were no "super spreader" events that came from air travel. So even before the masks, it simply was not a major point of spread.
You can’t possibly be serious. How do you think this thing got from China to, oh I don’t know, EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD??? Roller skates???
Here, try some nuance! Airplanes are definitely a big part of the mechanism of spreading it around the world. Spread between people on the airplanes themselves has been relatively low.
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truedude
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by truedude »

A super spreader event is when one infected person, infects a large number of people in a very short period of time. Like a single individual going to different night clubs, infects 50 people. There have been, as far as I have found, no single super spreader events the originated from air travel. That is, no single one person infected large quantities of other people, either in airplanes, or as a direct result of moving though airports.

This is the main problem with things like this, is that nuance is missed.

Yes, air travel helped spread it around the world, but it was through normal means of transmission, ie, one person infects one or two people, and then those one or two people infect one or two more people per person several days later, and it quietly travels the globe until we have this cluster of a situation.

But there are no reports of a sick person with COVID infecting half an airplane. So therefore, getting COVID19 by traveling through an airport, then sitting on an airplane, etc, has no inherit increased risk, as per say, going to Costco on Saturday morning. In fact, I would be more scared of Costco.

Here is the definition of a super-spreader:

noun
noun: super-spreader

a person infected with a bacterium, virus, or other microorganism who transmits it to an unusually large number of other people.
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dhc#
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

If people start travelling again with some predicting domestic flying will ramp up first, will this mean good news for Jazz, in that they will start flying more routes than AC domestically (at least to start) ?
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21cdnflyer
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 21cdnflyer »

dhc# wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
If people start travelling again with some predicting domestic flying will ramp up first, will this mean good news for Jazz, in that they will start flying more routes than AC domestically (at least to start) ?
Considering it's Air Canada pilots' flying, outsourcing to a third party, it would be interesting to see all Jazz guys recalled and operating when mainline still has guys on the streets. I'm sure that would not go over well..
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hithere
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by hithere »

Listen man, all we do here at Jazz is fly what Air Canada management tells Jazz management to do. If ACPA has a problem with that then ACPA should bring that up with AC management.
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Last edited by hithere on Sun May 24, 2020 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Goodman5
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Goodman5 »

21cdnflyer wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
dhc# wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
If people start travelling again with some predicting domestic flying will ramp up first, will this mean good news for Jazz, in that they will start flying more routes than AC domestically (at least to start) ?
Considering it's Air Canada pilots' flying, outsourcing to a third party, it would be interesting to see all Jazz guys recalled and operating when mainline still has guys on the streets. I'm sure that would not go over well..
“Air Canada pilots flying”. You’re funny.

It’s Air Canada’s flying. They do what makes sense $$$. You think they’ll put the 10 minute island flights on an AC bird just to appease some pilots egos? That’s not how they make money my friend and that’s all that matters.
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hithere
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by hithere »

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FL-200
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by FL-200 »

21cdnflyer wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
dhc# wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
If people start travelling again with some predicting domestic flying will ramp up first, will this mean good news for Jazz, in that they will start flying more routes than AC domestically (at least to start) ?
Considering it's Air Canada pilots' flying, outsourcing to a third party, it would be interesting to see all Jazz guys recalled and operating when mainline still has guys on the streets. I'm sure that would not go over well..

The analysts I've been reading have been saying exactly that. Keep the regionals at max capacity and tag in a mainline machine on a route only when demand warrants It and redeploy the regional on different routes.

To any company, the employees are nothing more than tools of profitability. It’s hard to make money with a 777 right now, but it’s easy to make money with a RJ900/Q400. If mainline pilots wanted to fly RJ’s they shouldn’t have demanded such high wages. I’m sure AC management would prefer it if the whole operation was under one roof, but the unions made sure that wouldn’t happen decades ago.

Unions throw temper tantrums over higher wages, management farms the work out to a lower bidder. This has been the procedure in the Western world for years and years, not just in aviation. AC hasn’t been able to offshore flight crew jobs yet, we have that to be thankful for. They off-shored some heavy maintenance, to the detriment to everyone who was at Avios however.
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780Pilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 780Pilot »

dhc# wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
If people start travelling again with some predicting domestic flying will ramp up first, will this mean good news for Jazz, in that they will start flying more routes than AC domestically (at least to start) ?
To me this actually makes sense. I think domestic travel will pick up before international / trans border. If what that AC exec said 2 weeks ago about travel ramping up come December is true that just furthers the point. Will people fly from say Kelowna to see family in Toronto for the holidays this year? I think the answer will be yes. As for how it helps Jazz over AC I think it all balances out. Jazz has a network of which 90% is domestic so its obviously good for them however AC has a hefty domestic route network too. It would be interesting for AC and Jazz if domestic travel explodes while international is on stand by. Thats a possibility. Just blowing smoke but something to ponder..
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yycinformer
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by yycinformer »

As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.
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FL-200
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by FL-200 »

yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am
As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.

AC hasn’t released the winter schedule yet, usually comes out early August, so what ever you saw, we can be pretty sure it’s inaccurate.

AC is expecting system wide of %25 seats available from last year, so, who knows.
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ayseven
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by ayseven »

I plan to go to BC this summer. I am hoping the risk will be quite low by then. Hospitals don't seem stretched so they are hopeful things can continue. It appears the isolating we are presently doing is working. And bonus, no need to upgrade seats because I am pretty sure we will be spread out once on board. Just keep the Purell handy (in the 100ml container of course).
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flybyyou
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by flybyyou »

yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am
As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.
any link to that august schedule ?
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yycinformer
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by yycinformer »

FL-200 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:31 am
yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am
As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.

AC hasn’t released the winter schedule yet, usually comes out early August, so what ever you saw, we can be pretty sure it’s inaccurate.

AC is expecting system wide of %25 seats available from last year, so, who knows.

Not referring to the winter schedule, just the summer sched people are getting all excited about. And it saw it directly on Air Canada's website. Give it run thru as if you were going to book a flight to the miriad of destinations that Sky does, and you'll see the 3x for DFW, for 5x for BOS etc. all as they have been doing pre-corona.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Ash Ketchum »

My prediction is that domestic loads will pick up in the next few months followed by cases going up as provinces reopen which will result in demand going down once again. Until a vaccine comes out or the virus mutates to become less harmful I don't see recalls happening in the near future. I hope I'm wrong though.
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timeflies
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by timeflies »

yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:29 pm
FL-200 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:31 am
yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am
As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.

AC hasn’t released the winter schedule yet, usually comes out early August, so what ever you saw, we can be pretty sure it’s inaccurate.

AC is expecting system wide of %25 seats available from last year, so, who knows.

Not referring to the winter schedule, just the summer sched people are getting all excited about. And it saw it directly on Air Canada's website. Give it run thru as if you were going to book a flight to the miriad of destinations that Sky does, and you'll see the 3x for DFW, for 5x for BOS etc. all as they have been doing pre-corona.
thats just because AC havent touched the august sked yet. I wouldnt get too excited about it.
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Splash
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Splash »

yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:29 pm
FL-200 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:31 am
yycinformer wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am
As it shows right now for the August loaded schedule, it's "back to normal", at least for Sky. If that holds true across the board, recalls should be happening shortly.

AC hasn’t released the winter schedule yet, usually comes out early August, so what ever you saw, we can be pretty sure it’s inaccurate.

AC is expecting system wide of %25 seats available from last year, so, who knows.

Not referring to the winter schedule, just the summer sched people are getting all excited about. And it saw it directly on Air Canada's website. Give it run thru as if you were going to book a flight to the miriad of destinations that Sky does, and you'll see the 3x for DFW, for 5x for BOS etc. all as they have been doing pre-corona.
The current loaded schedule for August is part of the original summer schedule from late February. AC is doing a rolling monthly load, expect to see the August schedule in June.
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Malfunction
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Malfunction »

Took the job. I have no doubt that recalls won't happen until next year. My logic... 50% work force is left on property and Sept will 20%-25% flying from last year. So MAYBE we will get past 50% flying and need more pilots by jan maybe not.
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FL-200
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by FL-200 »

Malfunction wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:01 pm
Took the job. I have no doubt that recalls won't happen until next year. My logic... 50% work force is left on property and Sept will 20%-25% flying from last year. So MAYBE we will get past 50% flying and need more pilots by jan maybe not.
Sounds rational.

If you get a solid job offer, take it!
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