New CPA and flowthrough to Air Canada?

[Fanblade]

Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

No problem at all so long as they don't operate jets larger than 90 seats with 76 seats in them or Q's with more than 80 seats.

Everything below that line is fair game for anybody.

[rxl]

Either way, good news to the ones affected positively.

For those that may be positively affected, absolutely ... great for them ...
BUT, how is the loss of 500 or 600 good, high quality pilot jobs at Jazz to the lowest bidder good news for the industry as a whole?

[rxl]

Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

No problem at all so long as they don't operate jets larger than 90 seats with 76 seats in them or Q's with more than 80 seats.

Everything below that line is fair game for anybody.

So it's to hell with anyone on the "regional" side of that scope line.
Great.

[loopa]

We don't know who will pick up the slack from Jazz, but my bet is with the three other AC regionals, and maybe even a new one. There will likely be a lot more progression for pilots there.

Safe flying!

Very good post. Don't mean to go off topic, but it kind of starts a new debate where Jetlines and Jetnaked will take place with this increase in RPK with a shrinking Jazz...

The way I see it, if Jetlines and Jetnaked can do it for cheap like Sky Regional/Georgian/EVAS... AC will have no problem setting up a CPA deal with either or both of those two operators.

Anything to compete with Encore's regional expansion.

Interesting times, Encore expanding, Jazz shrinking, increase in regional air travel demand by 2033... Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

loopa...Do you understand the CPA at AC?
...you need to read carefully. Jazz will be carrying at least the same number of passengers in 11 years, just in larger aircraft, so NOT shrinking. The Dash 8-1 are old today, and the CRJ200 are soon to be!
...anyone cheering on a cheap airline to do AC CPA has to give their head a shake!
...jazz has paved the way for quality regional pilot carreer in North America. Its up to you to continue the growth in regionals instead of helping the race to the bottom! I won't be here to see it! You will!

Thanks for your insight. I hope you're not assuming that I'm cheering on cheap airlines doing CPA's, just calling my bets on how that is presently a viable option for any airline wishing to fill that demand.

What I understand is that by 2025, Jazz will have 86 planes, and pilot's that will no longer be making the high salaries that they are today at Jazz.

This has met AC's need for cheaper operations. Absolutely it will allow Jazz to still operate, but it won't be the Jazz that we all know it to be any more. About the only incentive involved with going to Jazz is going to be the flow through to AC. Which I think everyone has already talked about, the devil is in the agreement. Personally I believe devils like having to pass a psych/cog/ac medical like everyone else in order to qualify for a job at AC. Carry YOS? One seniority List? How will things like that work for a 20 year Jazz Pilot now all of a sudden sliding across all the year 15+ AC pilot's who will have the luxuries of their seniority taken away, etc.

I still stick to the belief that Jazz is ultimately a sinking ship, and come 2021-2030 you will see either a) a completely new Jazz that has joined the race to the bottom or b) a completely new airline like Jetlines or the likes doing CPA flying like the Colgan's, Skywests, etc are in the states when they realize that they don't have a ULC market to fight for in Canada unless it is supported by big dogs like CPA flying for AC.

Either way, good news to the ones affected positively.

For those that may be positively affected, absolutely ... great for them ...
BUT, how is the loss of 500 or 600 good, high quality pilot jobs at Jazz to the lowest bidder good news for the industry as a whole?

Well by the sounds of it there will be more than enough vacancies for all Jazz pilot's to flow through, as I was stood corrected in my analogy further up in this thread.

1600 vacancies in 10 years, retirements at Jazz, everyone at Jazz get's a spot at AC. Wonder what this means for any outside hires going to AC ... Jazz just took away any viable spot for the 703/704 guy looking to move on.

Basically Encore is the route to WJ. Jazz is the route to AC. Choose wisely!

[rxl]

Yeah yeah, "Flow through blah, blah, blah".
The fact is 500 or 600, maybe more, really good jobs are going to be removed from the industry to be replaced with what?

[CanadianEh]

@loopa

You are completely naive if you think every single jazz pilot will flow through to Air Canada

[TrailerParkBoy]

@loopa

Jazz is only sinking if the water level drops due to like-minded pilots like you keep taking jobs at cheap companies like Sky Regional, Georgian and like you say, eventually Jetlines.

Jazz has a pension, a strong union, and probably 1200 or more pilots who dont want to flow to AC and just want to stay at jazz!

[countryhick]

Folks, the numbers in the press release are MINIMUM # of frames that are guaranteed to be at Jazz in 2020 & 2025. There may be more, but there will not be less. If the plan is to migrate Jazz high price pilots, the deal better be good, or it will simply not work.

A good analogy is AC has a 10 step plan, this is step 2.....lots of shoes to drop yet!!

[rudder]

If the pilot TA is ratified and the AC/CHR CPA extension is consummated, watch for an RFP from AC for approximately 24 75 seat jets.

If CHR is not the successful bidder on that RFP, then the ones forecasting the slow decline of Jazz will have it mostly correct.

[av8ts]

I may have been wrong about who flows to AC. Latest rumor is minimum 15 years with Jazz to take advantage of the Mobility Agreement. BOL with some pay protection

[Brize]

If that were true, there'd be no chance of ratification by over 1400 pilots. Mostly because there's be no future for the remaining 900 pilots unaffected by the Migration Agreement. Furthermore, current pay scales would just remain the same and the same problem to AC & Jazz would exist in 4-5 years.

[loopa]

@loopa

Jazz is only sinking if the water level drops due to like-minded pilots like you keep taking jobs at cheap companies like Sky Regional, Georgian and like you say, eventually Jetlines.

Jazz has a pension, a strong union, and probably 1200 or more pilots who dont want to flow to AC and just want to stay at jazz!

I don't usually like getting involved in debates with people that I don't know anything about. But I think you deserve a reply to clarify some things.

Where did you get the wind that I am ok with accepting jobs at places like that and that I'm anything close to like-minded individuals that drive this industry down? If you read my original post you see that I didn't support this entire thing as good news unless I've missed something and it actually is positive for anyone?

Not that this link is accurate, but gives us a base figure. http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airl ... anada_jazz

1434 pilot's at Jazz. 122 frames. Roughly 12 pilots / airframe.

By 2025 there will be 86, meaning 36 frames lost. At 12 pilots / airframe = 432 pilot's that will flow over in the next 10 years.

I heard 700 new hires and 500 retirements in the next 10 years at AC. These are rough figures, so if I'm wrong please do correct me.

That's 1200 new hires in the next 10 years. 432 coming from Jazz = 36% flow through.

So what happens to the other 1002 pilot's when 2025 comes? They will be on a b-scale salary and having to wait until flowing over to AC on an extension that doesn't go past 2025 - meaning will they even have jobs?

So is it really good news you guys? Sounds to me like the ship is still sinking but 432 souls will get out alive. Unless the 1002 people are going to be hitting retirement in the next 10 years. The math doesn't add up, roughly 1200 pilot's required at mainline, over 1434 pilot's required to flow over (not taking into account retirements). So then even if you wanted to go to AC, you wouldn't get there as a new hire at Jazz today. Maybe I'm missing something in which case I apologize for my poor analogy of this news.

@loopa

You are completely naive if you think every single jazz pilot will flow through to Air Canada

Read the post above, I didn't believe everyone would flow from Jazz. But then people jumped on me for saying that and corrected me with figures supporting that they would flow. What do I know? I'm as clueless as everyone in this thread about what the future of Jazz actually is. But some analogies sure do seem to make sense when you think about it. I wrote my analogy and somehow my opinion on what will happen to Jazz turned into identifying me as the type of person that would go to Jazz on a b-scale salary, or jetlines, or nut cracker airways Love the good'ol avcanada etiquette and poor assumptions. Read my caveat, "Good news to the ones affected positively by this." Meaning the rest that aren't affected positively by this are seriously screwed. Am I the only one that reads it that way?

This is terrible news. You are removing current Jazz pilot's (possibly forcing them to go to AC), or offering them to stay at Jazz with a pay cut. You will have a jazz that is either joining the race to the bottom, or a completely new company like Jetlines doing CPA flying for cheap starting 2021 onwards. I don't see Jazz sticking around. Unless of course it is due to like-minded individuals unlike me that keep applying and taking jobs there... like any Jazz applicant still applying for a job with this new piece of information.

Yeah yeah, "Flow through blah, blah, blah".
The fact is 500 or 600, maybe more, really good jobs are going to be removed from the industry to be replaced with what?

Read my original post above, I'm in full agreement with you.

You're hanging the wrong guy here gentlemen!

[Krimson]

I may have been wrong about who flows to AC. Latest rumor is minimum 15 years with Jazz to take advantage of the Mobility Agreement. BOL with some pay protection

Would make sense as the best way to cut costs is to cut off the top half of the seniority list.

[rxl]

Read my caveat, "Good news to the ones affected positively by this." Meaning the rest that aren't affected positively by this are seriously screwed. Am I the only one that reads it that way

Thank you for the clarification. That's certainly not what you said in your original post and as written it left me wondering exactly what your "read" on the situation really was. I did read your caveat and as a matter of fact I used it myself.

If pilots are going to hang the future on flow through agreements like WJ/Encore and the AC/Jazz tentative deal, then we really haven't learned much from a labour relations point of view in the last 40 or so years. It's still the same old story ... boss says "Gee guys, we can only afford to pay you peanuts for your services right now, but don't worry, the shiny new jets are coming."
Pretty sad.

[Calin Robandfistyou]

A flow with a minimum of 15 years of service will be a tough sell. Perhaps the target demographic is those pilots, but I feel it would have to made available to everybody to pass.

[BingBong]

Threats are not tolerated here. One strike.
Bandaid

[rxl]

I guess the best that we can hope for is that the TA/CPA combined with the fact that Jazz has a solid reputation for operational excellence will put us in a position to be VERY competitive in future CPA RFP's.
In the mean time - at the very least until we have more information - let's take'er cool.

rxl

[rudder]

The fact that the ALPA TA presentation must be first vetted by company legal (due to securities regulations on information disclosure for publicly traded companies) would appear to be indicative that information on fleet beyond that which was disclosed by AC and CHR in their joint press release may be forthcoming to the Jazz pilots if not specifically then at least generally (similar to the hypothetical growth scenarios contained in the ACPA/AC webinar presentation which formed part of the TA roadshow).

There is a domino effect here. No ratified ALPA TA - then no modified and extended CPA. I doubt that AC and CHR want the revised CPA deal to crater so given that and the unanimous recommendation of the ALPA NC and MEC to accept the agreement, one can only presume that there is more fleet information to be disclosed than is already contained in the press release and that information should for the most part be favourable to the Jazz pilots.

[North Shore]

I may have been wrong about who flows to AC. Latest rumor is minimum 15 years with Jazz to take advantage of the Mobility Agreement. BOL with some pay protection

Not an airline guy, so no dog in the hunt..

Why would a guy with 15 years at Jazz go? You probably have a pretty decent schedule, left seat, and choice of base - and you're going to give all of that up? For what? BOTL at AC, and a shiny,jet?

Why not ride it out where you are, making plans for the layoff 5/10 years down the road, and in the meantime enjoy lifestyle?

[dream chaser]

15 years at a company sounds like you should be living the high life. But I assure you that is not the case at Jazz. The 15 year guys might be in jeopardy of losing left seats in this next CA if there isn't more than meets the eye. 15 year plus captains are junior guys on reserve working all holidays and getting all the left over vacation time. This is after spending 8-10 years in the right seat with quite possibly multiple upgrades and downgrades. Jazz has become a very senior company and in these times (Walmartitization of Aviation) have become an expensive liability. 80% of Jazz captains make top end pay (17 year pay). Why is this you might ask? Because the Jazz pilots have fought over the last bunch of decades to make regional flying in this country a viable profession and not just a stepping stone. Jazz might not have the best payscale but bar none has the best working conditions of any airline in this country. For those who don't want to chase pay and big iron, Jazz can't be beat. Unfortunately, the regional airline business in this country is going the way of the US regionals where the fee for departure airlines are just stepping stones to get to that all mighty major airline job. Their regionals are our "bush" jobs where you have to "pay your dues" before you can make it in this business. But heres the thing folks. We are doing this to ourselves. At the end of the day, we have no one else to blame for letting this happen. How are we doing this? By taking jobs at companies that have sub-standard pay and working conditions. In my 16 years in this business, there have never been as many opportunities for the younger generation as there are right now. But a quick message to the pilots who are considering working for companies who's motto is "we'll do it for less". By taking these sub-standard pay and working condition jobs, you are helping to unravel all the work that has been done to raise the industry standards for regional pilots in this country. You might think that flying an Embraer 175 with 1500 hours is great no matter how poor the WAWCON is. "This is just a stepping stone for my career". Well times are good now with lots of movement and opportunities but consider a situation (another 9/11 type situation for instance) that halts the progression of our industry for another decade. With stagnant progression in the industry, would you rather be working for a company that has decent pay and great working conditions or a "we'll do it for less stepping stone" type company for the next decade after. By signing up to work for "ultra low-cost carriers" we are helping to degrade our profession. It is my hope that ALPA has come up with a TA that helps to maintain the integrity of the piloting profession at the regional level and not make Jazz a company that aids in the race to the bottom.