Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

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rudder
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:43 pm

teacher wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:54 pm

If I had to bet on fleet renewal I'd bet on this.

https://commercialaircraft.bombardier.c ... crj-series

Still the lowest cost per mile around. For the shorter routes it's perfect. Redesigned cabin, larger luggage bibs like the CSeries and updated flight deck.
You may be right but unless I am mistaken it is still equipped with the cold war era tubed CRT screens accompanied by noisiest flight deck fans of any commercial aircraft. No autothrust. Or auto brake. Or auto land.

The interior is a significant improvement. Jazz/AC should give serious consideration to an interior retrofit on existing CRJ900 fleet.

Given the slightly increased range on the CRJ1000, I would give thought to seeking a let from ACPA to operate CRJ900/1000 Express mixed fleet with operational seat limit remaining at 76 seats. Clearly, ACPA would get something in return. ACPA still has a shopping list. Alternatively, I would seek a Supplement on the CRJ900 increasing MGTOW to 85,500 lbs/ Max RAMP 86,000 lbs. This is not optimal solution vs increased cargo capacity/range on the CRJ1000 with the option to either increase the J class cabin or add more economy plus inventory owing to the increased cabin space but limiting configuration to 76 seats.

E2 jet is really nice. And really expensive. And a long waiting list. But would be a customer favourite. Auto thrust. Auto brake. Auto land. Would all be nice features for the pilots.

I don’t see an Express 76 seat jet fleet larger than 70. Perhaps even remaining at 60. Single type at some point in the future is an imperative. AC certainly appear to be price sensitive. Will need to source a mission capable aircraft that could remain in service to 2035 and beyond. And figure out whose corporate balance sheet will retain the debt. AC? CAC? Other?

First step - how many Express carriers. Next step - fleet after 2025.
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av8ts
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by av8ts » Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:56 am

rudder wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:17 am
av8ts wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:23 am
Won’t happen
And the disappearance of GGN as an a Express carrier was not going to happen. GGN was going to get CRJ900’s and expand. That WAS the AC plan. Wonder what changed?

I will go with 50/50 that there will be just 1 Express operating certificate within 24 months.

What just happened? In the jump ball between 3 carriers for incremental 76 jets in the Express portfolio, Jazz was just assigned 14 more aircraft. And along with that, one Express carrier was erased from the map.

In 2008 Jazz operated approximately 96% of the Express ASM’s. By 2018 that was down to 70%. With the recent announcement, Jazz will return to 80%+ by the end of 2019. And by the end of 2020 Jazz will be operating 35 CRJ900’s representing just under 60% of the 76 seat Express jet seat capacity. Add in the 15 CRJ200’s and that represents 65% of the Express jet seat capacity. Assuming that extending the service life of the CRJ200 to 2025 is a little far fetched, then those aircraft will eventually be replaced by 76 seat jets on some ratio basis using the substitution language in the CPA. These replacement jet aircraft will also operated by Jazz. And finally, Jazz has a MINIMUM fleet guarantee of 80 large regional aircraft for the period of 2026-2035.

So unless AC has a plan to grow the overall Express 76 seat jet fleet above 70 fins (possible), or to have Jazz operating 80 Q400’s from 2026-2035 (unlikely), the opportunities for either remaining Express operator to add incremental 76 seat jets from their respective current Express fleet plans are limited. And every Express pilot is waiting for the RRA/A220 shoe to drop in terms of routes over the next couple of years.

The older 175’s need to be replaced. Perhaps not in 2019/2020, but most certainly by 2025 and I predict sooner. Best outcome is 1:1 with either an E2 jet or whatever product is comparable. Worst outcome is that RRA/A220’s trigger a contraction in the Express 76 seat jet fleet. Can the Jazz 76 seat jet fleet be reduced prior to 2025? Nope. Wonder who that leaves?

Logic dictates that none of the reasons that provoked AC to go with the Express portfolio strategy still exist. CR got exactly what he wanted from both CHR and Jazz ALPA. He has a lock on those conditions at Jazz to 2035. And the Skyregional CPA has an early termination clause just like the one that was used on GGN. That represents flexibility for AC should the trend of declining Express inventory continue. So what further changes might that trigger in Express fleet and capacity for 2020-2025? I guess we can all wait to find out.

Better the remaining Express pilots put their heads together and create a win-win scenario. There is no reason that the Express pilots cannot demonstrate that further consolidation represents a superior outcome for AC, and for their constituents. The CHR/AC/ALPA agreement recently announced demonstrates that the AC perspective has changed, and that Express pilot job security is fleeting absent solid protections in both the CPA and the pilot collective agreement. Only one Express pilot group has such guarantees enshrined in their collective agreement. Do you believe those guarantees will be available at the other Express pilot bargaining table? I think it unlikely. Time will tell.
My “it won’t happen “ was in response to the title of this thread.
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rudder
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder » Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:29 pm

And here is what AC think about Express consolidation -

Air Canada Fourth Quarter and Year End 2018 Management Discussion and Analysis page 8:


• The consolidation of more of Air Canada’s overall regional capacity into Jazz’ footprint, thereby lowering Air Canada’s overall regional costs in the future.
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BE02 Driver
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by BE02 Driver » Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:49 pm

rudder wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:29 pm
And here is what AC think about Express consolidation -

Air Canada Fourth Quarter and Year End 2018 Management Discussion and Analysis page 8:


• The consolidation of more of Air Canada’s overall regional capacity into Jazz’ footprint, thereby lowering Air Canada’s overall regional costs in the future.
Quite the "I told you so".

Frankly, I agreed with you all along.
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DanWEC
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by DanWEC » Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:35 am

They had likely already bet that the group would accept that bananas wage contract, and they planned well beforehand to shift capacity to Jazz under the presumption it would be even cheaper for AC because of the contract. Great job.

Remember guys, Investors are number one, we are not. We'll never be voluntarily given any sort of improvement unless we fight for it. There's nothing sinister or conspiring about it, it's just business. I'm just amazed at the lack of pushback in negotiations by ALPA.
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Outlaw58
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by Outlaw58 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:16 pm

It's obvious that AC was looking to secure labor stability in the regional network until 2035.

Had Jazz turned it down, they would have kept shopping around until they got it, whether it be with Jazz, Sky, GGN?, or any other player existing or they could whip up (it's been done before.

Now that player has been secured and it's Jazz. The next logical step was to consolidate everything under that player, it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Nor that the fact that further consolidation down the road is forthcoming.

I'm glad it turned out that way. I'll take those single hits when they come.... beats trying to swing for the fence on every pitch and ending up striking out.

58
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