Best guess when recalls could happen

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Malfunction
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Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Malfunction »

Hello everyone. What are your best guesses when jazz will start recalling inactive/layed off pilots. The only reason I am asking is because I have been offered summer employment but I don't want to accept it if jazz is going to recall me in July or Aug. I have been with the company 2.5 years and low 900's on the senority list.
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flyer 1492
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by flyer 1492 »

I'd take the job. I don't see any recalls until the fall.
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mbav8r
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by mbav8r »

Memo came out recently about the planned summer flying, put it this way, there may be more cuts before any call backs
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47north
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 47north »

Malfunction wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 5:25 pm
Hello everyone. What are your best guesses when jazz will start recalling inactive/layed off pilots. The only reason I am asking is because I have been offered summer employment but I don't want to accept it if jazz is going to recall me in July or Aug. I have been with the company 2.5 years and low 900's on the senority list.
I hate to say it, but it could be 12-18 months before any recalls. I feel for you as I had an extended layoff in the past. The good thing is you do have a number and it will be worth something when the industry gets back up to speed.
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Malfunction
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Malfunction »

Wow 12-18 months. Here I was thinking 3-4 months.
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prop2jet
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by prop2jet »

Take the job if you have an offer. Recall would be at least 18 to 24 months in my opinion. Close to 800 surplus at AC looking out towards the next 24 months. CR figures along with IATA at least 3 years to recover. Attrition at Jazz is now through retirements and those are not in huge numbers.
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KenoraPilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by KenoraPilot »

I would take the employment, there has been no increase in air travel and so until that happens we are currently over staffed even with the pilots we do have "active". I would expect more layoffs come July 1, 2020 if there is no minor increase in flying by July. Just be honest with your new employer about your recall status at Jazz is all you can do.
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dhc#
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

Another factor that could affect recalls is what the Express (Jazz) fleet will look like in the future, considering how many aircraft AC just retired.
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GoinVertical
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by GoinVertical »

The days of being able to be picky about the flying job you take (the last what, 3 or so years?) are now over.

All the advice I ever received from before that time was if you're offered a flying job (assuming reasonable pay and conditions), take it.

Folks that are on a recall list are the lucky ones. The ones who are just finished their CPL, have been instructing, working the ramp, etc. are going to probably be waiting a while to see a seat inside a 705 cockpit.

What were the hour requirements to go to Jazz or Porter 10 years ago? Anyone remember?
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prop2jet
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by prop2jet »

GoinVertical wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 9:07 am


What were the hour requirements to go to Jazz or Porter 10 years ago? Anyone remember?
15 Years ago you needed anywhere between 3500 and 5000 hours.
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Justjohn
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Justjohn »

prop2jet wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 9:45 am
GoinVertical wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 9:07 am


What were the hour requirements to go to Jazz or Porter 10 years ago? Anyone remember?
15 Years ago you needed anywhere between 3500 and 5000 hours.


And it was WAY more than that in the ‘90s. Hopefully we won’t regress That far but I think the days of 1000hrs and away to the airlines are gone for a while.
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by rudder »

Jazz at 50% capacity needs around 625-650 line pilots. At 70% (best guess for summer 2021) would be around 875-900. Add to that med leave, management, training pilots, LOA to figure out approximately the bottom required seniority number. With hiring non-existent at AC, attrition will be extremely limited and age 65 retirement rates are nominal.

As mentioned above, changes are inevitable in the Express fleet plan. That and utilization rates will be the biggest determinants of staffing and therefore downgrade/layoff/recall.

Summer 2020 is a virtual commercial write off. AC planning systemwide capacity at 25%. AC aiming for some recovery after a Labour Day. 50% capacity by December and 70% by June 2021 is aspirational. Express flying levels could be higher due to domestic route structure although US routes will be a huge question mark until it gets the virus spread under control.

Recalls? Most senior potentially first or second quarter of 2021. Most junior could be 2022.
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dhc#
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

Don't think every last Jazz pilot will be able to wait for a recall of 1,2,3(?) yrs... (not that there is any place to move onto right now), there will be a quite a number who quit the industry and move onto another career.
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Civic
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Civic »

How far back have they taken the layoffs? 1 year seniority - 2 years? 3 ?
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ted_stryker
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by ted_stryker »

Atleast 3 years
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ogc
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by ogc »

Civic wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:01 am
How far back have they taken the layoffs? 1 year seniority - 2 years? 3 ?
I heard fall of 2016... but I dont know for sure
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Civic
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Civic »

:shock: :shock:
ogc wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:07 am
Civic wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:01 am
How far back have they taken the layoffs? 1 year seniority - 2 years? 3 ?
I heard fall of 2016... but I dont know for sure
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Malfunction
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Malfunction »

I need a drink.
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yhz41
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by yhz41 »

Malfunction wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:32 am
I need a drink.
I'm with you on that one....
Take the job and run! Is it seasonal or full time?
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mbav8r
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by mbav8r »

ogc wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:07 am
Civic wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:01 am
How far back have they taken the layoffs? 1 year seniority - 2 years? 3 ?
I heard fall of 2016... but I dont know for sure
Yes late 2016 for sure but could go further back than that, we don’t have a new list. Someone could go through the bid packs and cross reference the bottom names but with three types at four bases, it would take a bit of work for the end result, considering fall of 2016 is bad enough!
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Ash Ketchum »

I am one of the many Jazz pilots laid off. To be quite honest, depending on how long this layoff lasts, it may be the end of my commercial aviation career. I am in the process of securing a well paying job in the tech industry using my previous experience and university degree. I love to fly, but I have small children and a mortgage and the bills need to be paid. If this is a long term layoff (2-3 years+) I am not sure if I will have enough of an incentive to return.
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Malfunction
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Malfunction »

I'm on beer 3 already...
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780Pilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 780Pilot »

This might be a stupid question, but how senior do you have to be at Jazz to avoid a layoff if that's even possible? 10, 15+ years?
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Babar350
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Babar350 »

Ash Ketchum wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 12:42 pm
I am one of the many Jazz pilots laid off. To be quite honest, depending on how long this layoff lasts, it may be the end of my commercial aviation career. I am in the process of securing a well paying job in the tech industry using my previous experience and university degree. I love to fly, but I have small children and a mortgage and the bills need to be paid. If this is a long term layoff (2-3 years+) I am not sure if I will have enough of an incentive to return.
Same questioning, but I didn't secure any IT job yet though.
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by rudder »

780Pilot wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 2:30 pm
This might be a stupid question, but how senior do you have to be at Jazz to avoid a layoff if that's even possible? 10, 15+ years?
Jazz sent lay-off notices to 675 pilots. That is 50% of the active pilot population. Senior DOH not laid off will be October 2016. Currently no pilots are technically on lay-off. They are on payroll but inactive being paid the CEWS benefit by Jazz. Once CEWS expires, layoffs will kick in. Same arrangement for many surplus pilots in Canada.
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