AC cuts 2000 jobs, What does this do to Jazz?

[Mclovin]

Well I'm sure you have seen that AC is cutting 2000 jobs, how is this going to effect Jazz employees? Will we see layoffs as well?

[Stinky]

Hiring and overtime has been frozen.

[Inverted2]

I'm willing to bet some of the older CRJs will be getting parked too this fall.

[Moustache]

There is no way that ACPA will accept layoffs without some Jazz pilots joining them.

[bcflyer]

Guys guys guys... Lets not get all worked up just yet. First off their have been no talks of layoffs for pilots anywhere. Yes there is a reduction in flying coming but that just means guys will fly less. I'm blocked to 82-85hrs every month. They could cut the flying by almost %10 and we would still be above the 75 hr min.

[Obbie]

Moustache you are a funny guy.

ACPA doesn't run the company.
A handful of, now multi-millionares, do.

If they want to turf 200 AC guys
with no reductions in Jazz seats purchased,
Guess what......They will !!!!

Jazz is it's own company now dude. ACPA has no say over here.

Something that will become much more obvious in 2009.

[ourkid2000]

I love how this discussion is revolving around pilots..........there's more to Jazz than pilots.

Airlines are notorious for following suit of each other. It gives them the opportunity & excuse they need to jump on the bandwagon. You can be sure that if AC is laying people off, Jazz will follow suit. That includes pilots.

[Moustache]

A buddy of mine told me today that he just received an email from ACPA stating that they have an oversupply of 120 pilots. Now I know that doesn't mean that there will be 120 furloughs with attrition and less flying per pilot and what not. The attrition issue is not the same at Jazz. Everyone knows that the bulk of pilots at Jazz are ten years younger that the AC pilots. In the press release AC did say that there will be more layoffs to come. Convenient timing with 2009 around the corner. After all labour is the second biggest cost to airlines. The biggest cost, fuel prices, is out of their control. If they raise seat prices as oil appreciates, Canadians will fly less. It would be too big of a shock to the consumer.

As for my previous comment about ACPA

There is no way that ACPA will accept layoffs without some Jazz pilots joining them.

I believe, and I may be wrong, but somehow ACPA will offer some concessions in order to keep routes on the Embraer and not the RJ or influence a cut to the RJ destinations. Hopefully I am totally wrong. Just my two cents.

PS: Does anybody know where I can a Mandarin aviation phrase book?

[prop2jet]

How convenient, just as negotiations are to begin at all barganing units that have anything to do with AC, we are now facing the prospect of layoffs. Can anyone truly believe that this was not coming - I think not unless you had your head burried in the sand.

Be that as it may, it is clear that Air Canada dictates where Jazz flies and if there are to be reductions it stands that Jazz will be affected as well. Transborder reductions will affect Jazz as much as Mainline. Will there be layoffs with respect to the pilot group? Well that remains to be seen. No doubt there will be disscussions with the various bargaining units to see how reductions can be made without having to resort to layoffs.

Where Jazz is concerned I am of the opinion that management should be spending more time sorting out how to divesify it's client and revenue base. To not do this is detrimental to it's future.

[piggy]

Oil will get to $150 in 2009, then correct to $100, followed by a run up to $200 by then end of the decade.
This is just the beginning. The CRJ100/200 is way too expensive to operate at current oil prices. This can been seen with the aircraft they are parking in the USA. Funny thing is if Jazz/Aircanada was proactive and ordered Q400 when they could get them they would be ok. Now its the most popular a/c. These oil prices are here to stay and going forward we are probably going to see a complete restructuring of the airline industry (much more so in the USA).
AC will cut marginal routes and redeploy the jungle jet on routes that jazz flys with the CRJ. Jazz will obviously cut those routes. Many of those routes will be US, because of a combo of A/c type, high fuel, low passenger #s.
Canada's economy is strong-for now-and therefore domestic routes will mainly stay intact -for now. As fuel goes up , these routes will be restructured as well-otherwise AC will bleed to death-AC is not there yet-the airlines in the US are however, down there its is not an exercise in just reducing exposure to money losing routes-its absolute survival.....something that may soon be coming to a theatre near you....

[Brick Head]

Piggy,

Although I wonder about your oil price estimates you are very correct in your comments.

Analyst and industry players are pretty much split on where oil is going. Airlines burn huge amounts of fuel. You start parking aircraft at the rate at which have been announced, around the world, there will be less demand. And before someone says in the big scheme of things it will only be dent, I defer to the oil reserve numbers that spiked up after AA parked its MD80 fleet for 2 weeks. The spike up in reserves was ignored by the market because they claimed it was due to a temporary demand decrease in the airline sector. To put it simply I don't think the average Joe sitting on wall street comprehends just how much fuel jets burn. How much impact parking the amount of aircraft that have been announced, worldwide, will have on demand.

Many analysts are also starting to say the fundamentals do not support oil's price. Oil companies in Alberta are actually very cautious right now not to over extend themselves based on prices they feel may not be sustainable. They remember the last time this happened. 1980.

We have seen many sectors that appear to defy the fundamentals to eventually fall in line.

The Tech wreck comes to mind.

[Brick Head]

Of course I am not saying oils heading back to 40 bucks. Expensive fuel is here to stay.

That will put airline fundamentals on its ear. AC's fuel costs now represent over 30% of CASM. Since WJ's other costs are lower fuel represents an even higher percentage of CASM. He who burns less fuel per passenger mile will win in the environment. If fuel gets high enough, never know might be there already, A WJ 737 will have a higher cost per trip basis than an AC 777 from say YVR YYZ. Who would have ever thought that?

On the flip side trying to run frequency with a smaller aircraft against a competitor with a larger aircraft and less frequency will bleed you dry. All Legacy carriers, including AC, run hub and spoke, high frequency, small aircraft schedules. With the present fuel prices that is not sustainable.

[piggy]

Interesting point with jets being parked and the resulting possible lower oil price due to less consumption-very good point. The market will for sure react with less demand as the oil price goes up and when it reacts big time, the price will correct big time. I have heard many say that emerging market governments have been subsidizing fuel prices in their own countries for some time now and this has resulted in the same or more demand for fuel in those countries. As a result oil inflation has occurred. Refining margins are very tight and as a result the price of fuel vs oil price has incr. due to the lack of refining ability. You would think that as the usa is in recession the demand for oil would decr. causing the oil price to decr.-not the case anymore as the us is a much less of a factor globally-but still is a big factor. Also, many investors basically say that "everyone" is bullish on commodities in general and when that happens-watch out. When commodities correct the correct brutally, and there is much pain. If you want to go with the crowd i would be buying potash corp of sk. at over $200--not. Some say this run up in commodities is another bubble. It has been one bubble after another, tech, housing, now commodities---all a result of worldwide monetary liquidity excesss caused by profits from high oil prices and very low interests rates. i think everything will be slammed when int rates go double digits and everyone is boiled alive. oil will correct then big time when the us dollar swings the other way and strengthens. If anything the canadian banking sector and n. american consumer discretionary stocks are starting to look interesting if you like a little risk-as they have been destroyed quite nicely. I think the aviation sector is in for a struggle for the next few yrs for sure-not to be negative-just realistic. The only 2 airlines any economists like are southwest and westjet-and that is if they can stomach the airline sector at all.

[freakonature]

Jazz just cut 30 flight's for the month of July in and out of yka.
Has anyone seen this at other location's yet?

[loadshed]

Hamilton flights are the next to be chopped at the end of July

http://money.canoe.ca/News/Other/2008/0 ... 96-cp.html

[WetJet]

There is no way Jazz will have to lay off any pilots. Attrition to Westjet alone could reduce the group by 75 to 100 in 12 months. Let alone what Air Transat, and the Sandbox have poached... All they have to do is stop hiring and the pilot group would shrink by 10% in a year.

[SQ]

hamilton base is gonna be shut down in a matter of days

[Cool Rythms!]

Lol...I love to get on this forum to see all the different views and opinions that everyone has. Not only on this particular topic, but many others in the past. Sometimes, it can even turn into a heated arguement that could run on for days and days. A one page thread could turn into a 5 page, or even an 8 page thread! Yes, this is definately a sign of the times. But lets not be too quick to jump to conclulsions nor jump down each others throats over this. These are very trying economic times for airlines everywhere and no one knows what the future holds. If I may, I'll offer some words to think about...Don't assume and don't speculate. Live each day and cherish it for what it has to offer. Don't focus too much on tommorows troubles, otherwise you end up growing old way before your time. Take it one step at a time, be patient and wait to see what transpires. That's about all we can do.

On that note, how about that game between Spain and Italy huh!!

Peace and Respect to everyone

[Obbie]

That was truely lovely and inspiring !!!!

Now back to the panic......

The Comox base has just been added to the chopping block,
along with all the station agents.

As well Vancouver Sacremento will be stopped this fall.

But I am cherishing the day.....honest

[Cool Rythms!]

They're cutting Vancouver Sacramento huh? That was one of the new runs we had just started with the RJ, wasn't it? I remember putting that into my Jepp manual not too long ago. In any case, I just hope Saudi Arabia will start producing more barrells cause this whole thing is getting way out of control!

Say, maybe we can all set up shop in our backyards and produce our own oil !