Overconfidence, what's the cure?

[HS-748 2A]

You start this career with an empty bag of experience, and a full bag of luck. Your goal is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck. Overconfidence is a failure of your ability to judge how the bag filling/depeleting process is going...

That's a good one Airtids - and to complement:

Experience: the lesson you didn't get until just after you needed it.

[Hedley]

One thing that seems obvious to me, but is never mentioned:

Over-confidence is mentioned in the same tone as herpes. Bad, bad, bad. Therefore, the less confidence you have, the better the pilot you are, right? WRONG.

What you need is an appropriate amount of confidence, for your skill level, which is determined mostly by your knowledge and experience, and to a certain amount, by your genetic gifts.

One example is a student pilot that, to quote "Top Gun", has an ego that is writing cheques his body can't cash. We all know the type. He has too much confidence for his low skill level, and he'll make the evening news one of these days.

Another example is a neurotic pilot that's afraid to fly. He (or she) has too little confidence for their skill level. This under-confidence can be bloody annoying for the rest of us, and can end that pilot's flying career because they're simply too scared to ever commit aviation, even when the wx is perfect.

Obviously, what you need is the correct amount of confidence, for your abilities. And, as your abilities grow, so should your confidence. That doesn't make you (the dreaded) "over-confident" though, which in some bizarre egalitarian way implies that everyone should have the same confidence, because everyone has the same skills, which of course is complete nonsense.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

All of them are highly technique-intensive, and hugely reward a skilled practitioner, and mercilessly punish the clueless. I really like that. Here's a video re: #2:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNh0ba2-X_8

I detest activities that reward the incompetent.

I can't talk about the 4th activity here, but I try to be as good at it as I can, by practicing whenever I get the chance!

[Big Pistons Forever]

One thing that seems obvious to me, but is never mentioned:

Over-confidence is mentioned in the same tone as herpes. Bad, bad, bad. Therefore, the less confidence you have, the better the pilot you are, right? WRONG.

What you need is an appropriate amount of confidence, for your skill level, which is determined mostly by your knowledge and experience, and to a certain amount, by your genetic gifts.

One example is a student pilot that, to quote "Top Gun", has an ego that is writing cheques his body can't cash. We all know the type. He has too much confidence for his low skill level, and he'll make the evening news one of these days.

Another example is a neurotic pilot that's afraid to fly. He (or she) has too little confidence for their skill level. This under-confidence can be bloody annoying for the rest of us, and can end that pilot's flying career because they're simply too scared to ever commit aviation, even when the wx is perfect.

Obviously, what you need is the correct amount of confidence, for your abilities. And, as your abilities grow, so should your confidence. That doesn't make you (the dreaded) "over-confident" though, which in some bizarre egalitarian way implies that everyone should have the same confidence, because everyone has the same skills, which of course is complete nonsense.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

All of them are highly technique-intensive, and hugely reward a skilled practitioner, and mercilessly punish the clueless. I really like that. I detest activities that reward the incompetent.

I can't talk about the 4th activity here, but I try to be as good at it as I can, by practicing whenever I get the chance!

Best post yet !. ...And I assume your unmentioned 4 th activity is the study of CAR's, something you seem very knowledgable on

[Hedley]

I assume your unmentioned 4 th activity is the study of CAR's

My god, BPF, you're positively psychic! Yes, as a longtime sufferer of insomnia, I find that I require ever-increasing doses of CARs as bed-time reading, to put me to sleep at night. It used to be that one page of CARs would do it, but now I'm up to over 100 pages of CARs that I must read every night, before I can finally fall asleep

Back on topic ... let's take a look at a steady, 10 knot direct crosswind. A student pilot, with a total of 5 hours PIC under his belt, might quite correctly approach that crosswind in a C172 with some trepidation. I would hope.

In the same circumstances, a pipeline patrol pilot with 10,000 hours in a 172 might honestly reply, "What crosswind?"

That doesn't make the pipeline patrol pilot over-confident - he merely has an appropriate amount of confidence for his skill level.

As does the student pilot.

[Shiny Side Up]

In addition to the above posts, the cure is the flight instructor (LF of intensity). After that, the cure is transport canada. In other words, enforcement!

I'm afraid I don't really get your point.

As Auxbaton said, you can pretty much ignore what 767 said. I'm starting to wonder if 767 is the worst instructor ever or the best avcanada troll ever. Either way, TC cures no overconfidence or stupidity, there's a whole thread about that, they merely make reccomendations to others once you have either been punished or killed acting out your own bit of overconfidence.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

I was with you until 3), but you are right. I'd replace my personal 3) with fishing. They are blessed activities in that they are unrewarding to the impatient, they torment the slow and (sometimes) destroy the stupid. regardless, the comments about confidence are spot on and I'd put a big +1 beside them. Ideally everyone should have the equal amount of confidence which is directly proportional to their capabilities. As skill grows so should confidence in that skill. The real trick of gaining experience is knowing where you can apply new skill and what other similar activities it transfers to in an associative leap. The mistake many make in becoming overconfident is when they make an illogical leap in where they can transfer their skill to.

[trampbike]

In addition to the above posts, the cure is the flight instructor (LF of intensity). After that, the cure is transport canada. In other words, enforcement!

I'm afraid I don't really get your point.

As Auxbaton said, you can pretty much ignore what 767 said. I'm starting to wonder if 767 is the worst instructor ever or the best avcanada troll ever. Either way, TC cures no overconfidence or stupidity, there's a whole thread about that, they merely make reccomendations to others once you have either been punished or killed acting out your own bit of overconfidence.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

I was with you until 3), but you are right. I'd replace my personal 3) with fishing.

About 767... yeah I remember the stall recovery thread... scary!

My top 3 would be:
1)flying
2)riding a bicycle
3)playing poker

[glorifieddriver]

Take on a different kind of flying if you're looking to test your abilities. Aerobatics, sea-rating, multi or find a school in Mountain area. You will have lots of dual time, in which hopefully you will retain the safety factors and not push yourself further than needed, and if you do, well the cure might come out in many different outcomes.

[Gannet167]

The fact that you're asking this question is in itself a good sign. I think one of the very most important traits to have is self-evaluation. Studies have been done of very successful people in a variety of fields and of several common traits, self-evaluation is one of them. If you're consistently striving for the ideal and de-briefing yourself on how each flight went, always asking questions and thinking about what went right and wrong, and looking at yourself honestly - you'll continue to learn and develop. If you've got nothing left to learn, you need to retire. You're dangerous.

There are no old bold pilots because the bold ones either die or learn to be humble. Confidence is good - and you could say required. Passengers don't want to get on board and see a trembling wet noodle, unsure of everything and scared half to death. They want the person who is damn sure of what he or she is doing and has a firm grasp of what's going on. I think some pilots are cocky - sometimes annoyingly so. While that may piss people off at the bar, cockiness is often confused with a high level of confidence.

Certainly you can be over-confident, but to operate an airplane you need to have confidence in yourself. To me, that confidence is earned - by all the hundreds of things (we could write volumes on this) that go into making yourself (and maintaining yourself) as a professional pilot. I want to fly with a guy who's confident - because he's that good. I don't want to fly with a wimp who doesn't know what's going on. Too much confidence speaks to a problem of ego or personality traits that rub off poorly on the other crew members. Too much confidence could be because a guy is in love with himself and his super awesome identity as a wicket great pilot. That guy is dangerous because he probably isn't that good. He's in love with the image, not the job. He's compensating. I think those guys are thinking in their own mind "yeah, I'm a pilot baby, look at me" whereas, the guy with the right confidence is thinking "ok, I've checked everything, briefed the crew, I know all the special factors to consider here, what am I missing? I think I got everything, I know what happens next, I know what I will do if X happens," etc.

There's an old expression from Machiavelli's "The Prince" in which he says fortune only determines half of a man's fate. The other half is from his own will. Fortune is personified as "Fortuna" who is literally "Lady Luck." Lady Luck is a fleeting, disloyal B!tch - but she tends to favor those who are well prepared. That is to say, those that are called "lucky" are often those guys who knew their emergency procedures well, kept a cool head, were well trained, showed leadership in bad situations, knew their aircraft, etc. etc. etc. etc. you could pull hundreds of examples from thousands of accident reports. To be appropriately confident is to be that guy who is trying to keep lady luck on his good side, hopefully never to need her help. Guys say "I'd rather be lucky than good" but I'd argue to be lucky is to be good.

To say someone is over-confident or under confident is hard to say. The right amount, you could argue, is evaluated by watching him make decisions and show airmanship.

[trampbike]

Good post Gannet, thanks.

There's an old expression from Machiavelli's "The Prince" in which he says fortune only determines half of a man's fate. The other half is from his own will. Fortune is personified as "Fortuna" who is literally "Lady Luck." Lady Luck is a fleeting, disloyal B!tch - but she tends to favor those who are well prepared. That is to say, those that are called "lucky" are often those guys who knew their emergency procedures well, kept a cool head, were well trained, showed leadership in bad situations, knew their aircraft, etc. etc. etc. etc. you could pull hundreds of examples from thousands of accident reports. To be appropriately confident is to be that guy who is trying to keep lady luck on his good side, hopefully never to need her help. Guys say "I'd rather be lucky than good" but I'd argue to be lucky is to be good.
.

Hence my Jefferson's quote in my signature

[SAA340-600]

right out of the bible
Provide more work, make sure student is at perceived level of proficiency and do not overlook any aspect of flying. Criticize deviations.

[aero driver]

That's really easy get a job flying Northern Alberta late fall in a cessna 206 that will fix you right up no more over confident it fixed self big time

[sky's the limit]

Confidence is essential, and depending on the type of flying you participate in, it is what allows you to do your job effectively and efficiently. Ex. "Can you sling that 60ft tower onto that 7000ft peak today?" Yes, given the correct set of circumstances, the proper machinery for the job, my skill set, and the appropriate weather, I can. Push any one of those (or many other) factors and I court trouble, trouble that can very easily kill me or other people.

Over-confidence comes in many forms: It can be the result of the essential confidence combined with a certain type of experience, namely the successful kind. It can be a character trait. It can be ignorance manifesting itself as confidence. It can be a coping mechanism. It can be a combination of any of those.

There are some applications that require an immense base of knowledge, experience, and decision making skills - even once you have these, you are prone to over-confidence. Confidence is not a fixed thing, it ebbs and flows and is dependent on a great many factors. There is no "cure" to having too much of it on a given day, but there are a series of reminders or warnings one can give oneself that will save you from over-confidence, it's just a matter of learning to recognize them and paying attention to them before you push something too far and get into a bind. A big step in the right direction is checking one's ego at the door and realizing that NOTHING in aviation is worth dying for as we were reminded just short two weeks ago.

To pretend we get to a point where we are immune to over-confidence is a fallacy, it's something we all need to be aware of and subsequently work on - for as long as we choose to take to the air. You owe it to yourself, your family, your employer, your customers, and your fellow aviators.

stl

[bushhopper]

my 02 cents


3) Over confidence is particularly deadly when it comes to pushing weather. The best strategy for low time pilots is to have hard limits. For example I will continue this flight as long as I can maintain 1000 ft above ground. The instant I cannot do this I will turn around.

Thats my lower limit LOL. With weather I wont fly below 3000ft on a cross country. Doing diversions I wont go if the ceilings are lower then 2000 ft.

[Osiris]

A good solution to overconfidence is learning to fly tailwheel.

[trampbike]

Osiris, I'm getting checked out on an Aeronca Champion. Third flight tomorrow. I love it.

[Shiny Side Up]

A good solution to overconfidence is learning to fly tailwheel.

No, no its not. Though if you're overconfident and are flying a tailwheel you're more likely to give yourself a good scare which might make you a bit more humble. You'll also probably survive the expensive metal bending in a typical one of those good scares.

edit: Nothing worries me more than some guy who has a few hours on a taildragger and tells me he's "comfortable with it".

[Hedley]

Perhaps what he meant is that tailwheel might humble someone a little over-confident.

[iflyforpie]

A good solution to overconfidence is learning to fly tailwheel.

I used to work on a Maule MX-7 who's owner was pretty much an opposite example of what you say.

It was a nice aircraft, and the owner knew it, and also knew how challenging it was to fly, and demonstrated his skill whenever he could. This would be doing things like going down the taxiway with the tail in the air, or flying fire patrols at 200 AGL (not the best way to look for smoke).

He wound up ground-looping the plane in Tofino a few years back. Humbling experience? Perhaps, but a few years later he smacked into a mountain IMC in Nicaragua. He didn't survive.

The thing was, pretty much all of us knew that he was going to either wreck his plane, or kill himself; but none of us could say or do anything.

No plane will ever cure overconfidence.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Perhaps what he meant is that tailwheel might humble someone a little over-confident.

Worked for me

[Shiny Side Up]

Perhaps what he meant is that tailwheel might humble someone a little over-confident.

Probably what he meant, but its still not the cure. To the really badly overconfident there will always be an excuse, they will never attribute poor performance to themselves and learn from it.

No plane will ever cure overconfidence.

I tend to agree.

[. ._]

Is it possible to be overconfident when you constantly ask yourself, "How the hell do they let me fly an airplane?"

Uh, just wondering. Because, like, I have this friend...

-istp

[square]

Overconfidence has a real knack for working itself out

[hew44]

Definitely 'Intensity' cures this probem. I had a very over-confident, mouthy student a while ago (who is now happily liscensed). One day we were practising power on stalls and he was having trouble recovering from the wing drop, but was still acting very cocky. That is until he accidentally put himself into a spin and couldent get out, i let it go for about 800 feet or so (we had tons of altitude) then i took over to fix it. He spent the rest of the flight shaking, it was awesome.