Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops

[oldncold]

Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.

[cncpc]

Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.

If he was west of those passes, he had Kalso across the lake, Creston at the bottom, and Nelson down the West Arm. I doubt he would have turned around. Taking that Trout Lake route has risks of getting boxed in and once you are into it, you've a ways to go before a place to land, other than the road.

I'd say this will be a difficult search.

[CpnCrunch]

Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.

They filed direct, but I can't see how they could have flown direct given the weather. Comox are searching the direct route.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new ... ple-in-b-c

I hope someone is searching the valleys. If they did survive, they really need to be found soon.

[5x5]

I certainly agree with the hope that they're found soon. Mountains are extremely harsh areas to have to try and survive.

As for the weather, maybe I'm the biggest scaredy-cat around - but CBs at 6500' isn't what I would call good weather for a takeoff in the mountains. In my opinion (and no one else has to agree) flying a small, low power aircraft in the mountains should only be done in very good VFR weather. There's enough risk due to the terrain itself to complicate it with much less than perfect weather.

[Axial Flow]

METAR's indicate until 0200Z for that period in YCG never was less than 15 miles or 4200 AGL...YLW never less than 9SM and 5500 agl.

But north seemed a bit worse around Revelstoke:SPECI CYRV 082323Z AUTO 14003KT 5SM -RA BR FEW055 SCT071 OVC100 16/15 A2962 RMK LTNG DIST SW

With such unstable air and some good showers at the wrong time...going direct is quite a challenge out of YXC in those conditions.

yxc.JPG (444.2 KiB) Viewed 3878 times

TAF AMD CYXC 082132Z 0821/0907 19007KT P6SM -SHRA FEW030 SCT060 BKN090
TEMPO 0821/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA SCT030 OVC060CB RMK
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=

SPECI CYGE 082127Z 29003KT 250V320 20SM FEW015 SCT120 BKN160
BKN230 17/13 A2967 RMK SC1AC2AS2CI1 SLP049 DENSITY
ALT 3700FT=

TAF AMD CYCG 082315Z 0823/0904 18010G20KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080
TEMPO 0823/0904 VRB25G35KT P6SM -SHRA BKN050
PROB40 0823/0904 2SM TSRA BKN040 OVC070CB RMK NXT FCST
BY 090100Z=

TAF AMD CYLW 082218Z 0822/0907 18018G28KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 BKN070
TEMPO 0822/0903 BKN030
PROB40 0822/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN030 OVC060CB FM090300
19010KT P6SM FEW040 BKN080 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS.
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=

TAF AMD CYKA 082119Z 0821/0907 21010KT P6SM BKN100
TEMPO 0821/0824 VRB25G35KT 6SM TSRA BKN080CB FM090000
22020KT P6SM FEW080 SCT120 RMK NXT FCST BY 090100Z=

[CpnCrunch]

Here's the weather radar for 3pm, when they were refuelling:



Cranbrook is just north of that red return in the bottom-right corner, I think. That line of weather is moving directly north. From what I can see, the only thunderstorm in the entire region was the one at Cranbrook just after they were refuelling. Even if they didn't hit that thunderstorm, they probably would have had to fly through some nasty weather.

[freakonature]

Sounds like they are hunting an elt.

[cncpc]

Golf course guy at Crawford Bay says sunshine all afternoon, not much wind, no thunderstorms in daylight hours.

[Mick G]

This whole thing us starting to sound likr Steve Fosset

[anofly]

Folks,flying light aircraft. If the weather is not perfect in the mountains, you fly the "marked vfr routes" that mostly follow the valleys and have airports along them, and a big highway. If its bad ahead, you fly back to the last airport and wait, and you dont get yourself in to where there is no back door. If you think you might lose your back door, you dont move. IF you do move, treat the trip like a bunch of hops, airport to airport. you dont go gps direct in challenging weather and start weaving and ducking, or you may boldly end up doing what many before you have done.

[cpknight]

+1 anofly

[GyvAir]

Every time I read about cases like this, I wonder why use of such readily available technology such as the Spot Tracker is not the norm, if not required for flights over terrain such as this.
The pure economics of it would probably justify mandating wider spread use of them, never mind the potential lives saved and reduction in suffering of those involved and their families.

[CpnCrunch]

Golf course guy at Crawford Bay says sunshine all afternoon, not much wind, no thunderstorms in daylight hours.

Sure he's talking about Thursday? Radar seems to show rainshowers all afternoon there.

[cncpc]

Golf course guy at Crawford Bay says sunshine all afternoon, not much wind, no thunderstorms in daylight hours.

Sure he's talking about Thursday? Radar seems to show rainshowers all afternoon there.

Yes, but I thought that odd too. We discussed the missing aircraft.

[cncpc]

Every time I read about cases like this, I wonder why use of such readily available technology such as the Spot Tracker is not the norm, if not required for flights over terrain such as this.
The pure economics of it would probably justify mandating wider spread use of them, never mind the potential lives saved and reduction in suffering of those involved and their families.

I'm surprised every flight school doesn't use them, especially for renters.

[trey kule]

Folks,flying light aircraft. If the weather is not perfect in the mountains, you fly the "marked vfr routes" that mostly follow the valleys and have airports along them, and a big highway. If its bad ahead, you fly back to the last airport and wait, and you dont get yourself in to where there is no back door. If you think you might lose your back door, you dont move. IF you do move, treat the trip like a bunch of hops, airport to airport. you dont go gps direct in challenging weather and start weaving and ducking, or you may boldly end up doing what many before you have done.

Oh, thank you, thank you, for sharing such wisdom with us. It is not only totaly relevant, but I am quite certain you have saved countless pilots from certain death in the mountains.
Your advice is textbok perfect and not tainted in the least by experience. We can all learn better that way..

And to those that posted the weather or got updates from a golf course guy. All relevant. It has been a great learning experience.
No idle gossip here about the unfortunate incident two people mightt well have encountered. It is all about posting advice and speculating. But respectfully, of course, and only so we can learn from it. This type of situation has never happened before so it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to learn from it..

[cncpc]

From military a couple of days ago...

A CP-140 Aurora has also conducted a sensory sweep of the area to search for any signals, but that hasn’t turned up anything. A 406 beacon signal was reported, however, it is very weak and the military can’t direction-find it, Szkwarek said.

“It could be a red herring at this point, but we’re leaving no stone unturned on that and if we pick up on a harder ping, then we will absolutely prosecute it,” he added.

Anyone know what kind of signal would come with the antennae busted off?

[CpnCrunch]

More info on the ELT signal:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3522521/searc ... ing-plane/

[AirFrame]

From military a couple of days ago...

A CP-140 Aurora has also conducted a sensory sweep of the area to search for any signals, but that hasn’t turned up anything. A 406 beacon signal was reported, however, it is very weak and the military can’t direction-find it, Szkwarek said.

Yet again showing that the 406 is not a lot better than the 121.5 it replaced. I thought one of the benefits of the 406 was that a single ping would give location?

[bigsky]

I thought the Americans had AWAC's patrollng 24/7'along the border..one would think that they
would have tracked this aircraft on departure from Cranbrook..