Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

[mmm..bacon]

And while we're on the subject, is there some reason simple risk management principles for PPL's can't be taught during the syllabus? Yes the herd will tell me it is taught. I say most do a piss poor job on this principle, somewhere between the teaching and the learning.

Weather knowledge too.

Thing is, you have to have a fair bit of flying or life experience to effectively teach risk management. (painting with broad strokes here) Most young flight instructors have neither...

[pdw]

So the pilots decision to take off had nothing to do with it?

EDIT (Dec 3rd):
Used the wrong day ... my mistake ( wow .. how did I not see that )

Nov 25 .. not 27th

[Diadem]

From the Castanet article: "'We have not searched east of Rogers Pass as there was no ping information with the Rogers Pass cellphone tower from the phone on board the plane. It did communicate with the Fidelity Mountain cell tower near the west boundary of Glacier Park,' she read from an update provided to the family." For anyone not familiar with the pass, it makes an S-turn, with the head of the pass at the middle of the S, and then turns north, so the route goes east, north a bit, east a bit, and then north again. If the vis was poor and the pilot was unfamiliar with the route, he could easily have missed one of those turns and continued up the wrong valley, in particular I'm thinking that first turn north towards the head of the pass. I've made the same mistake in snow before in a different location when it was hard to tell which road to follow, but I was lucky enough to turn back while I still could.

[rookiepilot]

So the pilots decision to take off had nothing to do with it?

I'm inclined to think you may be right on with that line of questioning on this. Figures out ... hey why not take advantage of a higher groundspeed (figures out 2 and 2 ... will get through there faster and way before dark). A 35-40-kts sustained in the mooney on the NE course to Edmonton .. if that component was predicted WSW/SW up there .... and if it's true no real experience in the mountains to fully grasp what exactly the risks are with the stronger numbers?

One of the primary things to learn and anyone will tell you, in a light, low performance aircraft, 40 -50 knot upper winds are really bad in the mountains.

[pdw]

EDIT: My apologies to Cnpc .. RookiePilot .. and anyone else .. for the wrong date / wrong metar ... only 15kts

If the vis was poor and the pilot was unfamiliar with the route, he could easily have missed one of those turns and continued up the wrong valley, in particular I'm thinking that first turn north towards the head of the pass.

That would be right past where the Trans Canada loops back on itself before heading north into the pass ....

[Cliff Jumper]

It's a good call, when reaching altitude above 8000ft in " lowering vis " at the much higher groundspeed (200kts?) and arriving at turn location ("that first turn"), that would have been (have created) an enhanced circumstance for missing it right there.

English words - yes.

English sentence - no.

[rookiepilot]

It is extremely easy to choose the wrong valley. On my one trip crossing the rocks in perfect weather, I started down the wrong valley, very similar, and only a relatively minor heading difference, to correct valley, for a few miles before realizing the heading did not make sense with the map (I was practising without GPS assistance).

Must be double checking navigation , finger on the map.

[pdw]

and only a relatively minor heading difference, to correct valley

That makes sense then to retrace the map similar way to pinpoint 'most likely spot" for such nav error potential (as per previous page discussion .. ie "could easily have misssed one of those turns").

One or two track-points from which an error-deviation was more-likely and also passing within Fidelity Mt cellphonetower's service area wherein the ping of the PICs cellphone is being sourced (this being the cellphone service area centered 32km past Revelstoke and 29km past the last on-track radar hit about 2 miles NE of town) can be considered.

EDIT:
I used Nov27th data by mistake, ..on the 25th there was 15kts up there at Mt Des Poilus.

[Stallspin]

In that area, with winds comparable to what have been posted here, I've had a lightly loaded sr22 turbo firewalled and still descending at 1500 feet per minute. That experience would have been a lot less fun in a 200hp Mooney.

Does anyone have the ability to post the GFA from that day?

[GyvAir]

In that area, with winds comparable to what have been posted here, I've had a lightly loaded sr22 turbo firewalled and still descending at 1500 feet per minute. That experience would have been a lot less fun in a 200hp Mooney.

Does anyone have the ability to post the GFA from that day?

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaArchive.php?region=gfacn31

Is that what you're looking for?

[CpnCrunch]

Does anyone have the ability to post the GFA from that day?

I think it's this one:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

I think PDW and CNPC might have been looking at the wrong day. The plane departed Sat afternoon, but you both were looking at the Sun afternoon weather. The weather actually looks fine from what I can see. The only minor concern is that green hatched area, but it would have been easy enough to see if that had been a problem. Only other concern would be that Lee trough which could indicate strong mountain winds, so I'd want to check the upper winds. I'd also want to check weather at Golden and Revelstoke in case that scattered cloud at 6000ft had gotten any worse than forecast.

[Diadem]

Does anyone have the ability to post the GFA from that day?

I think it's this one:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

I think PDW and CNPC might have been looking at the wrong day. The plane departed Sat afternoon, but you both were looking at the Sun afternoon weather. The weather actually looks fine from what I can see. The only minor concern is that green hatched area, but it would have been easy enough to see if that had been a problem. Only other concern would be that Lee trough which could indicate strong mountain winds, so I'd want to check the upper winds. I'd also want to check weather at Golden and Revelstoke in case that scattered cloud at 6000ft had gotten any worse than forecast.

Scattered 6-8000 in those mountain passes can easily become a ceiling at a couple of thousand AGL locally in the valleys. Add in the conditions in the hatched area, and what you thought might be a nice VFR day can turn into a really bad trip. I've been through that area a lot, including on a day with nothing worse than SCT forecast when I almost got trapped; the clouds aren't enough to form a real ceiling over the whole area, but when you're in a narrow valley you can't really maneuver laterally to get by them like you could over flat terrain. If you don't leave enough room to turn around, you don't have any choice but to continue forward, and if the vis drops you're in real trouble. I personally won't go VFR through there with any forecast clouds lower than the tops of the mountains anymore, and that GFA looks pretty bad to me.

[rookiepilot]

I agree with Diadem. Plus add with that GFA, someone tell me how exactly one is supposed to land in Edmonton? Unless I've misread the map and where I think Edmonton is, looks sketchy.

Trying to fly between those hatched areas....dicey even if clouds remained scattered otherwise.

Checkout the icing and turbulence graph, too.

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

No thanks for this cowboy. Too much risk.

Let's remind too a chunk of this flight was to be attempted in the Dark. Risk upon risk.

[RatherBeFlying]

Mt des Poilus is on the other side of the Columbia Valley, pretty much North of Kicking Horse Pass. Any weather observation there can't really be extrapolated to Roger's Pass. Wind fields change a lot in the mountains.

I'd consider stopping by the Alpine Club Wheeler hut to see if anybody heard an aircraft The ACC national office knows who was booked there. There's also the avalanche control crew and CP. Wouldn't be surprised if SAR's already touched base with them. There are lots of people out and about in the West side of Roger's Pass. Somebody outside should have heard something if they went up that pass unless the wind was howling or a train was nearby.

There's other valleys north and south of Revelstoke where they could have gone up.

[CpnCrunch]

Scattered 6-8000 in those mountain passes can easily become a ceiling at a couple of thousand AGL locally in the valleys.

Actual weather was scattered at 7000ft ay YRV and YGE. Not sure if there's any weather stations in the passes.

when you're in a narrow valley you can't really maneuver laterally to get by them like you could over flat terrain.

I don't think any of those valleys are particularly narrow, if you stick to the VFR route. I certainly agree that it's a bad idea to go up any narrow valleys in bad weather. Even in good weather it's not a good idea unless you know the area.

[CpnCrunch]

I agree with Diadem. Plus add with that GFA, someone tell me how exactly one is supposed to land in Edmonton? Unless I've misread the map and where I think Edmonton is, looks sketchy.

Trying to fly between those hatched areas....dicey even if clouds remained scattered otherwise.

Checkout the icing and turbulence graph, too.

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

No thanks for this cowboy. Too much risk.

Let's remind too a chunk of this flight was to be attempted in the Dark. Risk upon risk.

I'm certainly not suggesting that anyone should go flying in marginal weather in the mountains, and as I said I'd have checked carefully to make sure the hatched area and lee trough weren't an issue before taking off.

Icing isn't a factor here if you're below the clouds, which they would have been in the Mooney (unless utterly insane *EDIT I see they were below the clouds from the track log). Edmonton is in the clear area (go to the regular GFA on Navcanada's site and it will show airport name if you hover over the airport).

I'm not saying that people should necessarily fly in that weather. All I'm saying is that it isn't obvious from the GFA that the weather was really shitty at the time.

I agree that leaving at 2:30pm was a strange decision. It would mean they would barely be out of the mountains by sunset, with no margin for any delay.

Here is the track log:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CFES ... Z/tracklog

Looks like their last radar track was a slow circling descent over Revelstoke. Presumably they were ducking under the clouds at 7000ft, and were below radar coverage after that. (I assume they could have easily made the field if it was an engine failure or other emergency).

[cncpc]

Nothing on the Flight Aware links.

[CpnCrunch]

Nothing on the Flight Aware links.

Link seems to work for me, but you can just search for CFESN on flightaware to get it.

[Pratt X 3]

Nothing on the Flight Aware links.

Link seems to work for me, but you can just search for CFESN on flightaware to get it.

You'll need an account with FlightAware to see it since it is a Position-Only Flight and you can only select that option with an account. It can be found under the My Account tab > 6 Position-Only Flights. VFR flights usually only show up if they have ADS-B Out or flight following has been used (i.e. transponder code assigned and entered in the ATC system).

When this option is activated, you can see additional flights for which FlightAware does not have a filed flight plan.
Tracking data for position-only flights is incomplete and potentially inaccurate.

[cncpc]

Nothing on the Flight Aware links.

Link seems to work for me, but you can just search for CFESN on flightaware to get it.

You'll need an account with FlightAware to see it since it is a Position-Only Flight and you can only select that option with an account. It can be found under the My Account tab > 6 Position-Only Flights. VFR flights usually only show up if they have ADS-B Out or flight following has been used (i.e. transponder code assigned and entered in the ATC system).

When this option is activated, you can see additional flights for which FlightAware does not have a filed flight plan.
Tracking data for position-only flights is incomplete and potentially inaccurate.

I have it now, thanks. Anybody got the 4 pm MST Metar for Revelstoke that day?

It seems that Revelstoke was an enroute waypoint as the route is sort of direct there, and always to the northwest of the direct track between Penticton and Edmonton.