Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

[Notapilot1]

Yes, apparently they searched Ross Peak and didn't see anything that would indicate an avalanche happened or any sign of a plane. Almost every logical place has been searched but we are wondering if he made it further towards Golden and maybe his phone died and didn't ping a tower out that far. It does seem strange that there is such a long period of time in between cell phone pings, surely he couldn't have been in the air for that long.

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Is there anywhere else along the route where they could have experienced trouble, and or made a wrong turn or miscalculation?

Thank you so much for the valuable insight and assistance.

[pdw]

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Landing runway 140 means the final approach to the "landing strip" is made from the North. The single runway is aligned 320/140, and since wind is still 3kts South at 4pm NOV25 after stronger South earlier that afternoon ... more-than-likely a southbound landing.

[cncpc]

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

I don't mean to open up some dispute in the midst of this sad and serious thread. However, my comment about a hotel in Revelstoke was neither malicious or uncalled for. It simply reflected cold and practical reality in a thread which is read by pilots, some of them 200 hour or less pilots from the flatlands who may one day come into our BC mountains, and attempt a flight like this on a day like it was. I have spent decades flying in those mountains, in that type of weather. I have been in many hotels that I had never heard of before or planned to be at the start of a flight. That includes hotels in Revelstoke, Golden, and Canmore. I am alive, everyone who ever got into an aircraft with me is alive and unharmed.

You asked us what would we have done. I would have gone to a hotel in Revelstoke. If that had happened here, this thread wouldn't exist. Families wouldn't be wondering where these two young people are, three children would not be missing their mother. My response was the best possible answer to your question. It was called for. To answer it in any other way, to speculate in a way that would lead other inexperienced pilots to think that trying to make it through was a wise choice, would be leading young and inexperienced pilots to the same mistake.

[CpnCrunch]

Yes, apparently they searched Ross Peak and didn't see anything that would indicate an avalanche happened or any sign of a plane. Almost every logical place has been searched but we are wondering if he made it further towards Golden and maybe his phone died and didn't ping a tower out that far. It does seem strange that there is such a long period of time in between cell phone pings, surely he couldn't have been in the air for that long.

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Is there anywhere else along the route where they could have experienced trouble, and or made a wrong turn or miscalculation?

Thank you so much for the valuable insight and assistance.

I think their only reasonable route was to follow the TC highway and if landing at Golden come from the North (even if landing in the other direction due to wind). I don't know if there was any evidence they were going to land there though. Even if not landing there, they would almost certainly have followed the highway to the Columbia Valley. There are a few shortcuts, but it wouldn't be reasonable to use any shortcuts below 7000ft, as I don't think any of the valleys are low enough and there's too much danger of going up the wrong one. However it's certainly possible that they did go up a wrong valley, either due to an error or by design.

There's no way they would still be in the air there after 10pm without refueling, so the ping is probably from the crash site (if indeed it was from that time). Sometimes if you are in an area with very poor service you can occasionally get one bar.

If it was my family, I would be contacting CASARA and/or chartering a helicoper to thoroughly scour that area (Ross Peak and where the cellphone ping was from) below 500ft AGL. Realistically, if they are alive, they're unlikely to last much longer than a few more days.

[beaverbob]

I wish NavCanada had not closed the weather offices and flight service stations to personal visits and briefings.
Many time when I was a young pilot the briefer would advise me what to expect in the passes and give me that extra information one cannot find in a Kiosk somewhere or off a computer weather service.
Perhaps a face to face or telephone briefing from a good specialist might have been enough to change their mind about flying.
It absolutely disgusts me that we can not open the door to FSS but can go to a computer Kiosk and make it all on your own.
Bob

[CpnCrunch]

I wish NavCanada had not closed the weather offices and flight service stations to personal visits and briefings.
Many time when I was a young pilot the briefer would advise me what to expect in the passes and give me that extra information one cannot find in a Kiosk somewhere or off a computer weather service.
Perhaps a face to face or telephone briefing from a good specialist might have been enough to change their mind about flying.
It absolutely disgusts me that we can not open the door to FSS but can go to a computer Kiosk and make it all on your own.
Bob

The VFR route forecast is very useful, but it just seems to be for the Fraser Canyon and Hope-Princeton routes, and even that is only available from Oct to Mar. Perhaps they need something similar for Rogers Pass. There doesn't appear to be any webcam or weather station in Rogers Pass from what I can tell (other than the highway cams, which aren't much good for pilots).

[beaverbob]

[/quote]

The VFR route forecast is very useful, but it just seems to be for the Fraser Canyon and Hope-Princeton routes, and even that is only available from Oct to Mar. Perhaps they need something similar for Rogers Pass. There doesn't appear to be any webcam or weather station in Rogers Pass from what I can tell (other than the highway cams, which aren't much good for pilots).
[/quote]

That brings me back to open FSS. A briefer could give that extra information that could influence a young pilot for a good decision.
Bob

[Notapilot1]

I have just read some incredibly helpful information, thank you! Regarding Wheeler Hut, a plane I was heard in that area. We believe Ross Peak area will be given a closer look given the trifecta of information (cell phone pings, avalanche beacon, and wheeler hut.)

We are also now wondering if he made it further towards Golden but the timeline on that seems a little iffy.

(Hotel comment - I get where you're coming from but you don't have all the information either and at this exact moment, in this situation, it's not helping anything.)

Thank you all so much!

[lookingforknowledge]

In regards to the hotel comment, yes it may seem insensitive, but that comment could also reflect that the pilot may have felt the same thing and could have chosen to turn back.

[cncpc]

I have just read some incredibly helpful information, thank you! Regarding Wheeler Hut, a plane I was heard in that area. We believe Ross Peak area will be given a closer look given the trifecta of information (cell phone pings, avalanche beacon, and wheeler hut.)

We are also now wondering if he made it further towards Golden but the timeline on that seems a little iffy.

(Hotel comment - I get where you're coming from but you don't have all the information either and at this exact moment, in this situation, it's not helping anything.)

Thank you all so much!

Good luck with your efforts.

[pdw]

You've done great CNPC, except only I blew it there so bad early on ... the correct metar timing should have been Nov 25 3-4pm (mixed-up 2 studies).

Diadem directly suggested "missing the first turn" was possible and low and behold wouldn't you now it the "Wheeler Hut" is right there just east/down of Ross's Peak. By googling it is clear there are in fact people regularly hiking/skiing up there at the Arthur Wheeler hut.

[cncpc]

You've done great CNPC, except only I blew it there so bad early on ... the correct metar timing should have been Nov 25 3-4pm (mixed-up 2 studies).

Diadem directly suggested "missing the first turn" was possible and low and behold wouldn't you now it the "Wheeler Hut" is right there just east/down of Ross's Peak. By googling it is clear there are in fact people regularly hiking/skiing up there at the Arthur Wheeler hut.

I certainly hope that this leads to progress in this search.

The METARS were OK for both Revelstoke and Golden, but the GFA showed winds gusting to 35kts at that time. I suppose the general theory is cloud blockages in the pass, but this could have been something like diverting for a quick look at illecillewaet Glacier and problems in the lee of Ross Peak. Certainly the GFA was not promising.

[CpnCrunch]

I certainly hope that this leads to progress in this search.

The METARS were OK for both Revelstoke and Golden, but the GFA showed winds gusting to 35kts at that time. I suppose the general theory is cloud blockages in the pass, but this could have been something like diverting for a quick look at illecillewaet Glacier and problems in the lee of Ross Peak. Certainly the GFA was not promising.

No, there was no 35kt wind in the GFA. You're looking at the one for the next day (see my post on page 2 of this thread). You should be looking at the 000Z GFA on the 26th, not the 27th.They took off on the afternoon of the 25th.

Overall the weather looked fine. It's certainly possible that they hit crappy weather in Rogers Pass, but (other than taking off too close to sunset) their decision to fly seems reasonable.

[cncpc]

I certainly hope that this leads to progress in this search.

The METARS were OK for both Revelstoke and Golden, but the GFA showed winds gusting to 35kts at that time. I suppose the general theory is cloud blockages in the pass, but this could have been something like diverting for a quick look at illecillewaet Glacier and problems in the lee of Ross Peak. Certainly the GFA was not promising.

No, there was no 35kt wind in the GFA. You're looking at the one for the next day (see my post on page 2 of this thread). You should be looking at the 000Z GFA on the 26th, not the 27th.They took off on the afternoon of the 25th.

Overall the weather looked fine. It's certainly possible that they hit crappy weather in Rogers Pass, but (other than taking off too close to sunset) their decision to fly seems reasonable.

Yeah, I see that. Twice wrong day for me. That is more hopeful, especially with wind taken out of the picture. Something was going on at Revelstoke, though, with that unusual manoeuvring. Assuming he may have seen some towering ahead at his initial altitude around 9,000 and was descending between clouds and layers there to get under. Based on this new view, I don't think the hotel at Revelstoke remark is called for. My apologies.

[waterdog]

I am sure this has already been done, but.....
That area has a large draw to the snowmobiling group and backcountry ski crowd / guides. It would be worth reaching out to those communities and letting them know to be on the lookout for anything unusual. The Rogers pass area experiences a lot of avalanche activity, it would be possible for a crash scene to be buried by an avalanche, only to be exposed by another one. Having everyone keeping their eyes out for anything unusual, broken tree limbs up high, crash debris, etc would be helpful.

The radar return on flightaware is odd, it looks like he was setting up for a right hand downwind on 12 at CYRV, then realized he was too high and moved to extend his final to allow a descent to the airport. From what I can tell when he turns back to line up with 12 he is around 2.2sm from the threshold......why the sudden left?

[Notapilot1]

JRCC (I believe is a zone of CASARA) was involved in the search up until recently. They are now relying on privately chartered helicopters and planes which are incredibly expensive. I have marked a triangle on my map that includes Roger's Pass, Ross Peak, and Wheeler Hut. The RCMP are reaching out to the people that heard the plane there to see if they can contribute more information. I do have maps of his flight path, and cell phone pings if anyone would like to see them. I also have a map of which areas have been searched by JRCC.

I have not seen an initial flight plan, and am going off the assumption that he would be following the TC. Please correct me if I am way off base on this. Is there another potential path if he ran into trouble following the TC? I looked on Winnipeg Aviation to try and create a flight plan to see where he would have actually been going had he not gone off radar but I am obviously not proficient enough to do that. By the sounds of it, a lot of you have flown that route before. Would anyone be able to show me a flight plan for the most logical way to go given the conditions that day? had heard that the pilot's girlfriend didn't like to land in Golden as it was pretty rough, if that is something relevant to keep in mind.

I have also heard that the pilot has an Ipad in which he does submit flight plans with but am not entirely sure what happened this go around. Based on the flight path, it looks like he did try to land in Revelstoke but was unable to for some reason (as mentioned above.)

I am going to plot out ALL the information we have so far this evening on a map but I feel as if the search area has been narrowed down, although most of it has been searched already.

Again, thank you all so much this has been a great help.

[Notapilot1]

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

I don't mean to open up some dispute in the midst of this sad and serious thread. However, my comment about a hotel in Revelstoke was neither malicious or uncalled for. It simply reflected cold and practical reality in a thread which is read by pilots, some of them 200 hour or less pilots from the flatlands who may one day come into our BC mountains, and attempt a flight like this on a day like it was. I have spent decades flying in those mountains, in that type of weather. I have been in many hotels that I had never heard of before or planned to be at the start of a flight. That includes hotels in Revelstoke, Golden, and Canmore. I am alive, everyone who ever got into an aircraft with me is alive and unharmed.

You asked us what would we have done. I would have gone to a hotel in Revelstoke. If that had happened here, this thread wouldn't exist. Families wouldn't be wondering where these two young people are, three children would not be missing their mother. My response was the best possible answer to your question. It was called for. To answer it in any other way, to speculate in a way that would lead other inexperienced pilots to think that trying to make it through was a wise choice, would be leading young and inexperienced pilots to the same mistake.

I was wondering why you'd be staying in a hotel if the weather was fine on SATURDAY when they left from Penticton. Given that the wrong day was used, and we now know what the conditions were actually like, I don't think this comment is relevant.

[CpnCrunch]

The trans canada highway is the recommended VFR route. I don't think you can see it on any websites, but if you get hold of a VNC chart you'll see it. It's on the Calgary and Vancouver charts. Or you can download the free "FltPlan Go" app, then go to downloads->maps->sectional->canada->SW. After downloading, go to maps, click layers->sectionals, then scroll over to Revelstoke and you should see the VFR route.

I don't know if they were landing at Revelstoke...they could just have been circling to go under the clouds. They were circling at 7000+ft, so there's no way they were "downwind" (1000ft above) any runway at that point. If they were circling to land, why didn't they land?

CASARA and JRCC are different...CASARA is civilian volunteer pilots, and JRCC is the government search and rescue. They do work together, but it may be possible to get CASARA to help you even though JRCC has ended the search. I'm not sure how CASARA works, but it's probably worth inquiring.

If he had an ipad it's probably unlikely he took the wrong route (unless the ipad ran out of power or he lost the GPS signal, which is possible). Still, it should have been possible to follow the highway.

[Notapilot1]

I believe CASARA has been involved already but as the case has been handed over to the RCMP and there have been no new leads, they are not searching further. Up until today when the potential "witnesses" at Wheeler Hut came into play which someone mentioned long ago. Parks Canada put in a call but it doesn't sound like they have gotten much out of it. 1 person has confirmed that they did hear a plane around the timeline that would make sense given all events and information but didn't physically see anything so I am unsure what they did with that information.

Below Is the link for my map where I have plotted some information (some is missing but given the location

https://drive.google.com/open?id=149khX ... sp=sharing

I do have the flight path as well if anyone wants to see it that wasn't able to access it.

[Notapilot1]

I believe CASARA has been involved already but as the case has been handed over to the RCMP and there have been no new leads, they are not searching further. Up until today when the potential "witnesses" at Wheeler Hut came into play which someone mentioned long ago. Parks Canada put in a call but it doesn't sound like they have gotten much out of it. 1 person has confirmed that they did hear a plane around the timeline that would make sense given all events and information but didn't physically see anything so I am unsure what they did with that information.

Below Is the link for my map where I have plotted some information (some is missing but given the location

https://drive.google.com/open?id=149khX ... sp=sharing

I do have the flight path as well if anyone wants to see it that wasn't able to access it.

I updated the map and it didn't save the changes, hopefully it is now working.