Are We Safe?

[HiFlyChick]

I think we can all agree that there 703/704 ops and 705 ops are all complex, but in different ways - you just have to look at the TSB reports and even the CADORS to see that. Sure, they're for different reasons and manifest themselves differently, but in the end, the question comes down to how the lack of experience affects the overall safety question. I'm hopeful that in the always-two-crew world of 705 there will be enough experience there to keep things safe, but it does get one wondering about small single-pilot IFR operators (of which I am one). I would venture to say that SPIFR in a Navajo in hard IMC is a really tough gig. The regs give minimums that are possibly adequate when the wx is 010 and 2 or 3sm, but when it's VV001 and 1/4 it's a whole different ball game. Add in some wind, and of course those Murphy's Law things like runway closures or finicky equipment and things can happen super fast.

I must admit, I had wondered at the fact that last year we had a few queries about the experience of our pilots, and now I see why. I guess it hadn't really occurred to me what results the flow-through would have on small 703 operators.

[atphat]

Although I’ve never done it I would imagine single pilot IFR to be a very very tough gig. Well said hiflychick.

[HiFlyChick]

There are a few oddities that nothing short of experience teaches you, too - like the fact that when you've got a big cross-wind from the left, at decision height you don't look directly over your nose where the lights usually are, you crane your neck to look over the starboard side, to allow for the fact that you're pointing left to hold the centreline. That one cost me an extra approach the first time I encountered it....

[shimmydampner]

Let’s face it, the vast majority of 705 ops are dead simple.

Spoken again like someone who has never done it. I've done both. Major 705 ops are infinitely more complex. They aren't even comparable really. All flying should be paint by numbers flying, save floats and skis. That's what makes it safe.

Your assumptions about my resume aside, I don’t totally disagree. Floats and skis, and I’ll add off-strip and a bunch of other bush types of flying are pretty tough to do “paint by numbers.” And painting by numbers does make flying safer. Which is my point exactly. Perhaps “dead simple” was a poor choice of words, but I’m in a rush to drink more adult egg nog so I didn’t wish to fully flesh out a wordy response. Maybe “cut and dry” would be more to your liking? “Black and white?” My point is, aviators have never had so many tools at their disposal to get from point A to point B safely. It’s a far easier thing to do now, relatively speaking, than it ever has been. From aircraft and automation advancements to training and SOPs, the deck is stacked in our favour like never before. Sure, learning and managing all that is a challenge, but the actual aviating is relatively simple. And that’s a good thing. I think that’s why it’s going to be ok with less experience sitting up front. It’s not because flight schools are churning out . Yeager clones. It’s because the ways in which aviation has changed will allow less experienced crews to operate safely.

[co-joe]

When all the king air captains had 4000 hours here, south of the border they had 1000 hour people doing the same job (single pilot in some cases). People always made excuses like Canada has shorter runways, and NDB approaches, and less ATC to coddle them, and blah blah. A pilot is as safe as their training, and the technology they have around them. With WAAS based LPV or LNAV+V approaches everywhere, full motion sim training, good fatigue risk management rules, and good 2 crew SOPs, there's no reason 1000 hour pilots can't fly safely.

[HansDietrich]

I'm going to go ahead and say that flying for a regional is a lot easier than flying in for the 703 company I worked for. Mind you, I was a captain there, I'm an FO now, but even as an F/O, it was way harder. Crappier schedule, way more exhausted, shit, short runways, zero support, pressure from management. Are you kidding me? Flying out of YYZ is a retirement job, by comparison; except YYZ ground. That shit is intense until you get used to it... then it's really easy...

[HansDietrich]

I'm going to go ahead and say that flying for a regional is a lot easier than flying in for the 703 company I worked for. Mind you, I was a captain there, I'm an FO now, but even as an F/O, it was way harder. Crappier schedule, way more exhausted, shit, short runways, zero support, pressure from management. Are you kidding me? Flying out of YYZ is a retirement job, by comparison; except YYZ ground. That is intense until you get used to it... then it's really easy...

[TG]

In meanwhile in Germany...
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... gh-444337/

Hard A321 landing led Germania to limit manual flights

20 DECEMBER, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON
Investigators have disclosed that Germania banned pilots' flying manual visual approaches under supervision, after an unstable descent by a relatively inexperienced first officer led an Airbus A321 to land hard at Fuerteventura.

The first officer had logged 96h on type before conducting the ILS approach to runway 01 using manual control of the thrust and attitude.

---------

Germania subsequently prohibited flying manually, with manual thrust, during supervised visual approaches on 22 July last year, six days after the Fuerteventura event. CIAIAC adds that the carrier has also been redefining conditions and restrictions for manual flight.

[mantogasrsrwy]

I know of a now defunct Canadian airline that did the same after a million dollar no autothrust tail strike.

[HansDietrich]

In meanwhile in Germany...
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... gh-444337/

Hard A321 landing led Germania to limit manual flights

20 DECEMBER, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON
Investigators have disclosed that Germania banned pilots' flying manual visual approaches under supervision, after an unstable descent by a relatively inexperienced first officer led an Airbus A321 to land hard at Fuerteventura.

The first officer had logged 96h on type before conducting the ILS approach to runway 01 using manual control of the thrust and attitude.

---------

Germania subsequently prohibited flying manually, with manual thrust, during supervised visual approaches on 22 July last year, six days after the Fuerteventura event. CIAIAC adds that the carrier has also been redefining conditions and restrictions for manual flight.

Yup. Putting "200 hr" wonders in the right seat of an A320 is nothing short of terrifying. You're not getting an argument from me there.

[av8ts]

I may get jumped on for this. With less than 10 years til retirement I’m probably one of those Sky gods. I find the 1000 wonders know the SOPs and can program the FMS like there is no tomorrow. You definitely have to keep a close eye on them during strong crosswinds and on a turbulent approach down to minimums. What I can’t handle is how many of them are whiney princesses. Constantly complaining about schedule, pay, duty day, and how it should be illegal to MEL an APU. I prefer to work with experienced fo’s so we can actually have a normal day without the bitching and complaining

[HansDietrich]

I may get jumped on for this. With less than 10 years til retirement I’m probably one of those Sky gods. I find the 1000 wonders know the SOPs and can program the FMS like there is no tomorrow. You definitely have to keep a close eye on them during strong crosswinds and on a turbulent approach down to minimums. What I can’t handle is how many of them are whiney princesses. Constantly complaining about schedule, pay, duty day, and how it should be illegal to MEL an APU. I prefer to work with experienced fo’s so we can actually have a normal day without the bitching and complaining

Yup. I agree. Nothing wrong with using common sense from time to time! You can't write a rule for every scenario. This stuff is not learned at Seneca by reading it in a book.

[Dry Guy]

Airport operators in Manitoba have some pretty scary stories with the DC-3 in the last six months as well.

What happened?

[Zaibatsu]

I may get jumped on for this. With less than 10 years til retirement I’m probably one of those Sky gods. I find the 1000 wonders know the SOPs and can program the FMS like there is no tomorrow. You definitely have to keep a close eye on them during strong crosswinds and on a turbulent approach down to minimums. What I can’t handle is how many of them are whiney princesses. Constantly complaining about schedule, pay, duty day, and how it should be illegal to MEL an APU. I prefer to work with experienced fo’s so we can actually have a normal day without the bitching and complaining

Yeah... I can really see a 1900 pilot who hand flies more legs a day than a widebody capt sleeps through a month with a cockpit that’s a sea of orange with MEL stickers having problems with those.

[Meatservo]

What's a "manual visual approach under supervision"? I can figure out the "manual visual" part, but what's the "under supervision" bit? Does it just mean the copilot is doing it? Surely they aren't forbidding captains to fly manually when the weather's OK?

[trey kule]

FWIW, many of the WPs are on their first job, or second. The concept of actually having to work for a living is a bit lost of them..

The accidents will come. Be patient,,

[FL007]

Question is a simple one. Are you SAFE in the back seat of that Navajo? The experience level of a short time ago is gone. Personally, I don’t think you are. Again, I’m using the poor Navajo as an example. I think our industry at this level is in dire trouble. Hope I’m wrong.

Illya

I would even go further to say that 705 machines are going to start to be staffed by inexperienced pilots. Look at the Jazz bids this year, captain bids approved at 5-6 months on type and 1700TT (ish).With 500hr FO's being hired, personally, I really don't think around 2000TT in a Dash flight deck is safe.

One good thing about somewhere like Jazz is there are strict guidelines to limitations, CRFI limits, etc. But I mean there are going to be captains flying around that have only flown 1 winter, in a plane that, for the most part they're unfamiliar with, beside a brand new FO who really doesn't know all too much.

This is me being devil's advocate here, I know not everyone is a low time captain upgrade, it's just always in the back of my mind when I think about Canadian aviation. 10 years ago Jazz was as hard to get to as AC mainline was, now i've seen 703 FOs leave for Jazz after a summer. What will happen when the duty day regs come into effect and 30% more pilots need to be hired? I sure hope the industry reacts with pay raises to attract experience, instead of lowering the bar to 250hrs across the board..

[HiFlyChick]

I may get jumped on for this. With less than 10 years til retirement I’m probably one of those Sky gods. I find the 1000 wonders know the SOPs and can program the FMS like there is no tomorrow. You definitely have to keep a close eye on them during strong crosswinds and on a turbulent approach down to minimums. What I can’t handle is how many of them are whiney princesses. Constantly complaining about schedule, pay, duty day, and how it should be illegal to MEL an APU. I prefer to work with experienced fo’s so we can actually have a normal day without the bitching and complaining

That's actually a good lesson for everyone at any stage (including life in general, not just in the cockpit). I had an F/O once that was pretty good given his experience level, but we did a 3 day trip and he complained about everything the whole time, even though I actually went out of my way to drive him to some motorcycle shops he wanted to visit. We were a very small 703 operator and at the time I was the senior captain, and by the time I got back I was ready to scream. He really shot himself in the foot because I told our scheduling guy when we got back that I didn't care whose turn it was to fly (yes, our people actually wanted to fly ), I was never going to do an overnight with him again.

When we hired, personality was a big factor - you can train a monkey to fly, but when you're spending all day with a guy, you want someone who is pleasant to be around. For the guys who complain about getting a starting job loading baggage - keep in mind that your employer is possibly watching you to see not only your work ethic but also what kind of a person you are...

[switchflicker]

That's actually a good lesson for everyone at any stage (including life in general, not just in the cockpit).

For the guys who complain about getting a starting job loading baggage - keep in mind that your employer is possibly watching you to see not only your work ethic but also what kind of a person you are...

So very true in all walks of life. This summer I spent a week with a team of 15 year old baseball players at an out of town tourney. Observing the boys and the way they conducted themselves in the hotel (4 players to a room) one of the dads said that the coaches and maybe scouts were watching them off the diamonds as much as on, determining if they would be acceptable material for the next year(s). One coach said if they can't behave on the street, it doesn't matter how good they are in the game.

[bobcaygeon]

The biggest thing I notice with less experienced crews is more missed approaches due wx, spacing, and being unstable. (Less trying to "save it") and slower turns ie skeds are often late because of it. That's an inconvenience. There also seems to be more skidded tires, cooked engines, and breakdowns in the field. It's not a surprise and it's the cost of doing business nowadays.

I also see avionics in King Airs that outclass AC's 320 fleet. ie VNAV that doesn't put you short of the runway and provides synthetic vision. Even if there isn't an RNAV or ILS approach I can provide low time crews with vertical guidance on visual approaches to every runway so they don't put in short at night or over frozen lake. I know of experienced pilots who did that in the 90's even though they flew those approaches every day. Some smaller airlines restrict the weather conditions above CAP limits or prohibit circling approaches. Other's use nothing but Level C/D Sim training when they used to do on-wing only. It's legal to do upgrade training but I know of a carrier that does the full initial training for all of their upgrades because of experience levels. They have been since 2008.

Sorry but I was far more likely to bend metal in the 90's flying a navajo hard IFR all day single pilot with a wing lever autopilot following 703 rules. Almost no one even flies single pilot IFR anymore.

I haven't heard names like "The giver" or "The Mad Russian" floating around in quite awhile.

There is definitely more risk of bent metal but the 1990's had lots of bent metal by experienced crews too.