PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

[C.W.E.]

Unless the pitch control power wasn't enough to overcome the inherently downwards pitching moment at rotation speed, which could be caused by a a front-loaded aircraft, incorrect trim setting or something restricting the elevator.

Yes these could be reasons they rejected but they also are issues that should be very easy to identify.

There was also a Gulfstream a few years back that tried to take off with the gust locks engaged. It reached flying speed, but could not get airborne.

If there were gust locks on the airplane that also should have been quite evident and be in the CADOR wouldn't it?

If the C of G was so nose heavy they could not rotate it to fly why wouldn't they have known that before flight and corrected it?

Or am I being to critical and this accident was not of any real importance safety wise because it was a training event?

[cncpc]

Tried to takeoff with full flaps. Left down after walkaround.

Not saying that happened, but it would produce a similar result.

[Pratt X 3]

Tried to takeoff with full flaps. Left down after walkaround.

Not saying that happened, but it would produce a similar result.

The Seneca II has the Johnson bar flap handle just like the Cherokee that makes it difficult to get into the left seat with it raised in the full flap position. Not impossible but highly unlikely that the flaps were left fully down.

[pdw]

I would recommend you do a little reading up on how LLWS detection actually works.

It's the vertical one I'd be taking a closer look at, if spending more time on it.

[Cliff Jumper]

I would recommend you do a little reading up on how LLWS detection actually works.

It's the vertical one I'd be taking a closer look at, if spending more time on it.

I concur. Takeoff lane 26L has 0.000452 percentage point slope-down. If the NON-expected pilot not-forethinking the increased height due supplemented bernoulis, although NOT AIRBORNE increased on oleos. The added dimension, between aerofoil and asphalt (read super-height) could translate into VERTICAL SHEAR, although no evident CADORS coverage, certainly the first aspects for TSB would inspect.

[pelmet]

Tried to takeoff with full flaps. Left down after walkaround.

Not saying that happened, but it would produce a similar result.

I don't necessarily agree. I have not flown the Seneca yet but....I did takeoff accidentally with full flaps in a twin Cessna once. The takeoff itself felt perfectly normal. The only difference was that there was no acceleration during the initial climb. A full flap takeoff on the one light twin that I did it on had no effect on the ability to rotate the aircraft.

[Cliff Jumper]

It could be a million things... no?

Control locks, mis-rigged elevator, full down trim, airspeed indicator anomaly, reduced power for whatever reason and didn't recognise until too late, mis-perception (airspeed never really reach Vr), mis-reported (for whatever reason), broken elevator control cable/pushrod/rodend, incorrect VR, overweight, well out of CofG, and so on, and so on.

Or bees.

Have you ever tried to rotate with a cockpit full of bees? No? well trust me, it's difficult.

(full disclosure, I was once involved in an accident that was a direct result of bees. Ever since this time, it has become my personal mission to alert other pilots to the greatest un-talked-about risk in aviation... and that, as we all know, is bees.)

[GyvAir]

I would recommend you do a little reading up on how LLWS detection actually works.

It's the vertical one I'd be taking a closer look at, if spending more time on it.

Should I even ask... the vertical what?
My gut tells me that you're going to say something like "The vertical component.", which will leave me none the wiser, yet oddly amused.

[pdw]

"LLWS detection" .. this would be vertical, as opposed to horizontal llws. Still reading ...

[Diadem]

There was vertical low-level wind shear concentrated exactly at the centre of the runway, that had no effect on the wind detection equipment at the airport, but somehow affected a weather station at a factory miles away. Oh, and it was detectable at the stations in Hope, while is even further away and up a valley, and in Lytton, which is on the other side of a mountain range! Next pdw will be looking at stations in Antarctica to see if there was a westerly flow which could draw a vortex south across the Pacific, thereby causing a layer of air to blow a molecule of dust into the pilot's nose, causing a sneeze at precisely the moment when rotation should have occurred.

[Diadem]

There was vertical low-level wind shear concentrated exactly at the centre of the runway, that had no effect on the wind detection equipment at the airport, but somehow affected a weather station at a factory miles away. Oh, and it was detectable at the stations in Hope, which is even further away and up a valley, and in Lytton, which is on the other side of a mountain range! Next pdw will be looking at stations in Antarctica to see if there was a westerly flow which could draw a vortex south across the Pacific, thereby causing a layer of air to blow a molecule of dust into the pilot's nose, causing a sneeze at precisely the moment when rotation should have occurred.

[GyvAir]

"LLWS detection" .. this would be vertical, as opposed to horizontal llws. Still reading ...

When you're adequately read up on it, could you maybe draw up an explanatory sketch for the rest of us?

[Stallspin]

There was vertical low-level wind shear concentrated exactly at the centre of the runway, that had no effect on the wind detection equipment at the airport, but somehow affected a weather station at a factory miles away. Oh, and it was detectable at the stations in Hope, while is even further away and up a valley, and in Lytton, which is on the other side of a mountain range! Next pdw will be looking at stations in Antarctica to see if there was a westerly flow which could draw a vortex south across the Pacific, thereby causing a layer of air to blow a molecule of dust into the pilot's nose, causing a sneeze at precisely the moment when rotation should have occurred.

PDW, I would be curious to know your take on this? Could Antarctic weather shed any light on accidents here in Canada?

Also curious on PDW's actual resume. Must take some serious education to understand wind so well.

[pdw]

There was vertical low-level wind shear concentrated exactly at the centre of the runway, that had no effect on the wind detection equipment at the airport ...

Just saying that if concentrated "at the center" (unobstructed infield) no detection necessarily at 10 Meters elev down in the retreating cooler air ... esp slower moving among buildings/trees outside the airport perimeter where the station is. A reading at CWMM (among the factory buildings) might not properly produce an extra "V"eering reading even if existed (45deg clockwise shift in less than 15min ). The "V" value (example 110V180) is indicative of potential Vertical llws on/above a runway, but not available where the station is not able to read exactly or not set up to do so.

Warm air advection at CYXX (18nm SE/ upwind) ... the TCUs before / after, on both 2-pm & 3pm Metar Nov 23/2017 (a source of Vertical LLWS). Private surface wx station records southwest of the runway also briefly show drier/warmer(14-15C) Southerly 10kts ahead-of "2:45PM" (IBCSURRE6 at 98Meters elev, IBRITISH438 96Meters, IBCSURRE21 82Meters, IDelta3 91Meters, IBRITISH292 79Meters).

EDIT (Monday Jan 15):
CYVR has Towering Cumulus 1pm/2pm and CYXX 2pm/3pm ... where CWMM is between (and that indicates the line seems to move East right past the incident area). The stations show daytime heating just before. Would a disruption be expected beneath/around this warming air that is advecting into more-isolated Towering Cumulus if passing by YPK's wide open area ? .. if the drier air there produces less cloud ? I hope this suffices as " a sketch" GyvAir.

A burst of tailquartering warmer air mid takeoff would increase DA while decaying airpseed, which might also destabilize at high GS and highspeed rollout when choosing to abort.

When in an accident it's wiser not to speak out about it too quick, alone for the reason you yourself are unaware of ALL the factors involved. PDW

( edited out as much "jiberrish" as I could)

[Diadem]

Writing gibberish doesn't help your argument.

[pelmet]

Maybe someone in the local area could try and find out for us. There must be someone from the flight school on this board. PM me if you prefer not to post it under my own handle. It is actually important to this debate and the endless wind theories we have been getting as causes for endless accidents.

[Cliff Jumper]

I have the experience that it requires to understand most anything to to with LLWS and smaller fixed wing aircraft, and also how to describe it fairly well.

Minimum detection possible at CWMM (10 Meters elev) if cooler air pooling temporarily in the lowlands there (low anemometer reading CWMM). Being off airport premises might account for a poor "V"eering reading esp among factory buildings right there. The "V" value (example 110V180), indicative of vertical llws potential on/above a runway, is also abscent where a station is not set up to read it.

CYXX (18nm SE/ upwind) had TCUs before / after .. 2-pm & 3pm Nov 23/2017. Lots of warm air going up in the area. Private surface wx stations southwest of 8R threshold/YPK .. show briefly drier/warmer(14-15C) Southerly and 10kts ahead-of the 2:45PM incident (IBCSURRE6 at 98Meters elev, IBRITISH438 96Meters, IBCSURRE21 82Meters, IDelta3 91Meters, IBRITISH292 79Meters).

Awesome. I write really goodish. See, watch this "Slabba dabba blutredy sploogoush"

If I wasn't 99.9% convinced he is a troll, I'd feel terrible for making fun of someone struggling with mental health.

But, in reality, in this situation, it's me (and us) who are the fools for continuing to respond.

[rookiepilot]

Yeah, No Sh-- Cliff....

No longer amusing. Especially on fatal accidents.

Pelmet, agree.

Speak up flight school. Be accountable.

Tell us what happened. Don't play the PR game.

[C.W.E.]

How can pilots learn from others mistakes / mechanical problems if flight schools keep these events a secret?

[HiFlyChick]

How can pilots learn from others mistakes / mechanical problems if flight schools keep these events a secret?

You're not serious...?
Not keeping it a secret means full disclosure to TC, TSB, and their lawyers, not posting on a public forum

Yeah, it'd be interesting and educational to know what happened, but I wouldn't expect anyone involved in the accident to post here. To some extent even the discussion/speculation is educational because it gets us all thinking about factors that we should always be aware of... well, other than the very odd comments by some of the trolls (I don't get those guys - is your life so sad that you have to sit around making stuff up to tell to strangers who, BTW, recognize that you are spouting absolute crap)