Pilot shortage, how long?

[Zaibatsu]

Give it about two years. Maybe less.

The US stock market and economy are growing at unsustainable rates and are going to be fuelled by debt with Trump’s new tax laws. All it’s going to take is one thing.. a war... an attack.. a blip in commodity prices... a financial scandal... or something like Bitcoin to crash and the house of cards will come tumbling down.

If you’re left seat at Jazz or Encore, stay there. If you’re 703, move now.

[Black_Tusk]

I have 3 friends who have started at Jazz within the last 6 months with hours ranging from 600-1000. Two are aviation college grads, one is not. Not the norm by any means but it's happening.

[SuperchargedRS]

Happy new year everyone!

How long do you think this pilot shortage thing will last? 2 years? 10 years? More? Less?

It will last till the pay and benifits go up to match the education, experience and responsibility of a multi thousand hour pilot in a type rating sized jet with hundreds on lives aboard.

I have 3 friends who have started at Jazz within the last 6 months with hours ranging from 600-1000. Two are aviation college grads, one is not. Not the norm by any means but it's happening.

....or they just keep lowering the bar and saftey to be able to hire cheaper labor.

Airlines should have to say when you buy your ticket that the copilot is very inexperienced so the company could save money. Given the choice I'd wager most people would not be happy to fly with someone who's last paying job was flying a 172.

[Black_Tusk]

All the low time pilots I know hired at Jazz had mostly PIC multi time. And enough to be more than capable in any aircraft Jazz flys.

[SuperchargedRS]

All the low time pilots I know hired at Jazz had mostly PIC multi time. And enough to be more than capable in any aircraft Jazz flys.

[Black_Tusk]

Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?

[FL007]

Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?

I know lots of people at jazz, and maybe 90% don't have pic time.. Actually they needed PICUS to even apply for their atpl.

I do know one or two guys who were previously multi captains but absolutely not the norm, and they have upwards of 3k hours... Where do you find 500-1000hr guys with "lots of multi pic"?

[RocksAndProps]

The way I see it, the industry is going to be hurting for at least a 3-4 more years. Regionals have scooped up all the flight instructors, and so nobody is around to train any new pilots. My school lost half its staff last year, most of which were MIFR and Multi instructors. There's now a waiting list to get either of those ratings, and I suspect my school is far from the exception.

Seems pretty short-sighted from an employer's point of view, pretty soon the supply will dry up, and if trends continue nobody will be able to get a MIFR.

[Black_Tusk]

There is no foresight in regional operations. It's all about putting the fire out now, and keeping planes in the air.

[goingnowherefast]

I'm waiting for the Jazz's and Encore's to open their own flight schools. FOs can be instructors on the side to get their PIC time and actually be eligible for captain. But that costs money...

[digits_]

I'm waiting for the Jazz's and Encore's to open their own flight schools. FOs can be instructors on the side to get their PIC time and actually be eligible for captain. But that costs money...

How about you'd get the captains be instructors? The most experienced pilots should instruct.

[goingnowherefast]

Cause the captains already have their ATPL and don't need pic time.

[gaamin]

There is no pilot shortage at the moment.
If there were, you would not hear so many pilots complain about the pay and benefits offered by entry jobs (flight instruction, 702, for instance) or by 705 operators.
Will there ever be a pilot shortage? I doubt it. Bill C-33 in 2012 made sure unions have minimal leverage in negotiations.
Employers claiming there is a shortage, and echo chambers such as this thread, on the other hand, make it more acceptable to the general public to possibly allow cheaper foreign labour. Why do you think our agricultural workers are mostly temporary foreign workers?
Claims of pilot shortage also make it easier for companies' ownership to lobby against ICAO-mandated science-based duty/rest time even when US and EU (among others) have implememted them a while ago.
In any field when there is a shortage employment conditons adjust to balance the supply/demand. In any field. If your recent contract is not significantly better than the previous one for that job, it means there is no shortage at your job.

[StudentPilot]

There is no pilot shortage at the moment.
...
In any field when there is a shortage employment conditons adjust to balance the supply/demand. In any field. If your recent contract is not significantly better than the previous one for that job, it means there is no shortage at your job.

I am not so sure about that. From what I see the airlines are not having a shortage yet, but the experience of their new hires has plummeted. Realistically they will not have a shortage until there are not enough 200 hour pilots coming out of FTUs as most CPLs are looking to fly for an airline. Much of the world works on that program. Ergo, no raise until all available CPLs are at the airlines and fewer CPLs are being produced than the number of pilots airlines want to hire. That will still take a while.

Meanwhile the airlines and larger regionals are sucking in a whole lot of pilots who previously would be instructing, float flying, and/or flying in (small) northern towns - those are the jobs that are starting to experience a shortage of pilots. Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.

Some operators are offering better terms and conditions than previously (ergo, a pilot shortage by your definition), but none that I have heard of are for an airline job.

My suspicion is that many operators realize they can get away with less experienced pilots (possibly with higher training and/or maintenance bills) for less than improving T&Cs and retaining more experienced pilots who otherwise are going to the airlines.

Some may also think that raising salaries (and customer rates) significantly will push away business - either away from aviation in general or to the competition that has not raised the wages or rates yet - and they will lose even more than being short staffed and/or it will lead to them going out of business. Look at this quote from the CBC:

"We haven't raised salaries in, I don't even know, years. It's frightening what these guys make," said Swaffer. "This is not a rich kid's hobby. These guys are struggling to make a living."

I suspect a $20+/hour raise would convince some instructors to move over from OAS, or farther afield, but an extra $20/hour of dual would probably see some of their students train elsewhere as well (unless/until the other local options also increase their pay and rates to match). I doubt a bit more money would keep most instructors beyond whatever it takes to be picked up by Jazz/WJE/AC, but it may be enough to get them to work at OFC until that time comes.

[RocksAndProps]

Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.

I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

[7507]

Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.

I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?

[RocksAndProps]

Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.

I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?

I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.

[7507]

I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?

I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.

Are you saying Porter is calling guys with 700 hours to interview or tell them they need more time?

GGN as an instructor? Explain please and thank you.
Thanks

[RocksAndProps]

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?

I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.

Are you saying Porter is calling guys with 700 hours to interview or tell them they need more time?

GGN as an instructor? Explain please and thank you.
Thanks

AFAIK Porter is calling 700-800 hour ME-IFR guys for an interview, and then waiting a month or two and calling them if they interviewed well. I know many who've gone to Porter at not much more than 1000, some of them instructors. They're trying to get to them before Jazz interviews them.

Where I used to work, instructors have left all year for GGN at 700hrs for the 1900, and if they had 1000hrs guys would go onto the RJ. GGN is hiring much lower than their job ads would give away, especially from SOAR affiliates. Some of the brand new class 4 instructors would leave for a GGN or Bearskin after 6mo.

[SuperchargedRS]

Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?

No and yes,

I don't work at Jazz, it's not the quality of life I require.

And yes, EXPERIENCE, like real life experience matters, being the first and last word in the cockpit, working your way up from small planes, to single pilot charter, to turbine, to type cert planes, building a solid foundation, that's what makes real experience.

I know lots of people at jazz, and maybe 90% don't have pic time.. Actually they needed PICUS to even apply for their atpl.

I do know one or two guys who were previously multi captains but absolutely not the norm, and they have upwards of 3k hours... Where do you find 500-1000hr guys with "lots of multi pic"?

Ahh make believe PIC time, gotta love it when the airlines can lobby their way to make the government let them skirt the rules so they can use cheap labor over experienced pilots.