Flair struggling?

[Donald]

Pilots voting to strike.

Swoop starting next month.

Loads are down and flights being consolidated.

Now they are offering $2 base fares....where have I seen that strategy before?? (Jetsgo)

Is the writing on the wall for Flair?

[Donald]

86FAC6E8-824D-4CAF-ADEF-35274CC3F183.jpeg (152.84 KiB) Viewed 5888 times

[FL007]

Pilots voting to strike.

Swoop starting next month.

Loads are down and flights being consolidated.

Now they are offering $2 base fares....where have I seen that strategy before?? (Jetsgo)

Is the writing on the wall for Flair?

Swoop isn't exactly going to hit the ground running..

I always thought flair was struggling, back when they were a charter business I never thought we'd be talking about them in 2018

[Donald]

I’d be shocked if Swoop doesn’t start out with consistent full loads.

[FL007]

I’d be shocked if Swoop doesn’t start out with consistent full loads.

You think they have all the training done with no wj training captains or management pilots allowed to participate? 10 tails moved over in the next month?

[Donald]

The launch is only 3 tails in June, 6 by September, 10 by next spring.

Yes, I think they’ll be ready.

[FL007]

The launch is only 3 tails in June, 6 by September, 10 by next spring.

Yes, I think they’ll be ready.

We'll see I guess what the wj pilot strike will bring.

[Rowdy]

So let me get this straight.. New leaf starts up and uses flair and can north to operate for them. They bomb.. Flair picks up the slack, effectively 'buying' new leaf. Flairs loads are marginal and their route structure has minimal connections. They now face negotiations at the same time WJ does.

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada. Anyone who tells you otherwise is scheming something else..

[ditar]

I thought history had already demonstrated that the ULCC model doesn’t work in Canada. I never expected this NewLeaf/Flair venture to last as long as it has.

[cncpc]

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada.

That is correct. Over.

[telex]

So let me get this straight.. New leaf starts up and uses flair and can north to operate for them. They bomb.. Flair picks up the slack, effectively 'buying' new leaf. Flairs loads are marginal and their route structure has minimal connections. They now face negotiations at the same time WJ does.

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada. Anyone who tells you otherwise is scheming something else..

Can you spell it out with plain and simple words for a simple guy like me? What is the connection?

Don't ask the questions, present the answers.

But a question for you; have you ever heard of a guy named BLP?

[Rowdy]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

[telex]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

So a fleet of clapped out -400s with JR selling out his position is going to cripple Wj with a market cap of $2 billion?

Again, I need simple terms please.

You thinks? Or you knows?

How did JR, KF, and all of this mystery bring us to present day?

Please be as specific as you can.

[tbaylx]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

You think the BOD hatched Swoop, incurred millions in start up costs, time and paperwork, headhunted a CEO and signed long term agreements with vendors in order to keep worker costs down? Interesting theory.

Just because there hasn't been a successful ULCC carrier launched in Canada to date doesn't mean it won't work, it just means it hasn't been executed successfully yet. The legacy carriers that dismissed the model as foolish elsewhere are now having their butts handed to them by the likes of Ryanair etc. I'd argue that the time is ripe in Canada for the same.

[daedalusx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

[Donald]

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

Are you saying Flair is being kept alive to present a false threat to WJ, so that their management can justify a wage cut?

[BE02 Driver]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

I was going to write the exact same thing. Don't forget the surplus of cheap airports in the USA that have low fees near metro centers to attract ULCC traffic. Canada does not have a surplus of airports able to accommodate 737 traffic.

[tbaylx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

[indieadventurer]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

Honest question, who? Pardon my ignorance but I’ve been hearing this tune for years now and so far just crickets.

[tbaylx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

Honest question, who? Pardon my ignorance but I’ve been hearing this tune for years now and so far just crickets.

Who disagrees? or who is executing? Swoop at the moment on both counts. Guess we'll see if Jetlines actually gets airborne or Indigo comes in.

[oldncold]

IN 2 words fuel ,taxes.
CARBON TAX WILL ADD 11C LITER TO JET FUEL
PRICE OF OIL BACK OVER 70.0- US A BARREL =COST CUTTING FOR all operators ullc is a pipe dream will go upon smoke

[boeingboy]

100% for the reasons given already - the ULCC model never has and never will work in Canada......and if you look at Jetlines people are not putting money in it like it grows on trees. I have always said Jetlines will never go anywhere and if they do magically con someone out of money - it wont be for long. They even just switched aircraft types again........ugh.

As for Swoop - they will be around for a while. Just like Zip and Tango - remember them? They have a company with all the necessary items in place to make it go - but do you think it will make money - HA! not a chance...but that's exactly what it's supposed to do. It's actually going to save WestJet money. I suspect just like Zip and Tango it will be around for a few years and then get folded back into the mainline operation or be transformed into something like Rouge.

[Panama Jack]

I don't know what is going on at Flair, but I think it is too early to call their (or anybody else's) demise.

Here is my suspicion- $2 fares are not for every seat, on every flight, but in very limited quantity on those seats which are expected to go empty by their revenue management predictions. Why let those seats go empty or give them to jumpseaters/non-rev passengers when you can use them to create marketing sizzle and possibly sell, sell, sell ancillary products on them? This is the Ryanair business model and it works.

[confusedalot]

I agree with the Ryanair analogy. At least it proves to be possible. Hey, I'm baffled at Ryanair's success, but then again I am not a businessman.

Having said that, I recall decades ago when I was working for, at that time, a well known, fairly large, northern operator operating anything from light twins to large turboprops, and there was a buzz about getting 737's. Management was actually playing the field and actually did have 737 slots on the production line.

Turns out 737's were awfully popular and just having production line slots meant money....slots were bought and sold just like any other commodity And that's what they did, slots were sold and money was made. No 737's in the fleet.

So I guess there is in fact a way to make money in the aviation business apart from selling tickets. I suspect Ryanair was also, if not that particular scheme, or maybe they were, are perhaps in another less than obvious scheme to pull in capital. Stating the obvious, you can't make money by selling 2 dollar tickets in itself.

[Diadem]

$2 fares as a promotional idea mean nothing if they aren't advertising those fares; I haven't seen a single Flair ad since they took over New Leaf, and all of the buzz that New Leaf created has been forgotten over the last year. I have never seen any marketing of any kind with the Flair logo on it. One of my relatives is a travel agent, and when I mentioned Flair she had no idea what I was talking about. They need to get people to know who they are before they get pax in the seats, and they're failing miserably in that regard.