Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

[DanWEC]

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/air- ... s-awi.html

[DanWEC]

..Double post..

[av8ts]

You’d have to pay me a lot more than double to get me to move to the land of the orange baby

[FL007]

You’d have to pay me a lot more than double to get me to move to the land of the orange baby

To each their own, whoever their leader is, making double is an insane change of lifestyle, not including the lower cost of living in the US. I'd say a quarter of AC pilots would be gone if they had the opportunity to move over.

[av8ts]

You’d have to pay me a lot more than double to get me to move to the land of the orange baby

To each their own, whoever their leader is, making double is an insane change of lifestyle, not including the lower cost of living in the US. I'd say a quarter of AC pilots would be gone if they had the opportunity to move over.

It’s not just him. I have no desire to live where that many people support a racist sexual predator. Then there’s also the murder rate.

[FL007]

You’d have to pay me a lot more than double to get me to move to the land of the orange baby

To each their own, whoever their leader is, making double is an insane change of lifestyle, not including the lower cost of living in the US. I'd say a quarter of AC pilots would be gone if they had the opportunity to move over.

It’s not just him. I have no desire to live where that many people support a racist sexual predator. Then there’s also the murder rate.

Yes I get what you're saying, do you refuse to operate to the US on flights?

I fly to the US enough that I could probably commute there from, say, YYZ, and make double and my time away from home would probably be very similar.

[Alcoholism]

To each their own, whoever their leader is, making double is an insane change of lifestyle, not including the lower cost of living in the US. I'd say a quarter of AC pilots would be gone if they had the opportunity to move over.

It’s not just him. I have no desire to live where that many people support a racist sexual predator. Then there’s also the murder rate.

Yes I get what you're saying, do you refuse to operate to the US on flights?

Yes and he/she should probably refuse to fly any US citizen. Unintelligent and could use some Trump love.

[Lightchop]

I'd happily go work for a company like Southwest and move to San Diego or Denver. Sign me up.

[FL007]

And as flawed as it may be, I'd almost rather America's healthcare system. I've almost died in the waiting room of an ER needing emergency surgery while waiting 9 hours to be seen.

Loved ones of mine would still be alive due to the organ donor list joke here.

Sure I'd have to pay, but I'd gladly go into debt to have family members live 10-20 more years.

Some European countries have it the best though, a system merging the two.

[Oxi]

is there a CRJ900 order with Bombardier that is undisclosed? If so would Jazz or GGN fly these?

[speedah]

Currently 6 orders with 6 options undisclosed AFAIK. Its from end of 2017, but i dont think the customer has been made public yet

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/customer ... 31889.html

[rudder]

BBD Q400 line sold. BBD CRJ900/1000 line (unofficially) for sale. This creates uncertainty and scares customers away.

Principal competitor for CRJ900/1000 is the E175 (3rd generation). EMB is effectively backstopped by Brazilian government. Little or no risk to manufacturer viability or long term product support.

Tough for BBD to sell its product in that environment without deep discounts. And BBD does not typically offer much in the way of discounts on the CRJ900.

Only play that might get some traction and be worthy of a volume discount is to see AC commit to a significant CRJ900 order (via CHR Capital Leasing Division?) that would be part Express 76 seat fleet growth and mostly medium term (2020-2023) fleet replacement for the 25 first generation E175’s currently in service at Express. A potential order therefore could be 25-40 CRJ900 aircraft to be delivered from 2019-2023.

AC acquired the CS300/A220-300 for a per unit cost less than the list price for a CRJ900. Whether the math works for further CRJ900 aircraft at Express likely has to do with the willingness of BBD to offer a discount to AC/CHR.

[FL-280]

BBD Q400 line sold. BBD CRJ900/1000 line (unofficially) for sale. This creates uncertainty and scares customers away.

Principal competitor for CRJ900/1000 is the E175 (3rd generation). EMB is effectively backstopped by Brazilian government. Little or no risk to manufacturer viability or long term product support.

Tough for BBD to sell its product in that environment without deep discounts. And BBD does not typically offer much in the way of discounts on the CRJ900.

Only play that might get some traction and be worthy of a volume discount is to see AC commit to a significant CRJ900 order (via CHR Capital Leasing Division?) that would be part Express 76 seat fleet growth and mostly medium term (2020-2023) fleet replacement for the 25 first generation E175’s currently in service at Express. A potential order therefore could be 25-40 CRJ900 aircraft to be delivered from 2019-2023.

AC acquired the CS300/A220-300 for a per unit cost less than the list price for a CRJ900. Whether the math works for further CRJ900 aircraft at Express likely has to do with the willingness of BBD to offer a discount to AC/CHR.

Very well put. We are on same page with this, I strongly believe this is what will happen. Jazz \ CHR will have to merge the pilot list to crew such a big CRJ order.
The RJ900, is a much better aircraft and its time to pick it up really cheap.

[goingnowherefast]

How competitive on operating costs is the CRJ900 compared to the reworked E-jet family? Might need to re-engine the CRJ to make it more competitive.

As much as I'd like to see Canadian companies succeed, it's sad to see them offer old outdated products when the foreign competition is pushing forward.

[FL-280]

The new E jet is not a possibility right now for the express carriers, the scope clause would have to be re negociated.... too heavy I believe

[rudder]

There are numerous fleet ratio limits that apply in the ACPA scope language, however, for the purpose of gauge for Express MJA (medium Jet Aircraft) the limit is seat based. Max certified hull size 90 seats but operated with not greater than 76 seats.

The US legacy operators have weight and seat scope limits (86,000 lbs).

[TheStig]

AC acquired the CS300/A220-300 for a per unit cost less than the list price for a CRJ900. Whether the math works for further CRJ900 aircraft at Express likely has to do with the willingness of BBD to offer a discount to AC/CHR.

Rudder, Air Canada has 30 A220 options with substation rights between the -300 and -100, at, as you've mentioned heavily discounted rates. How do you think this might impact Air Canada's intentions towards its regional fleet renewal plans? Does the price of the A220 have an impact on the airlines regional renewal strategy, do you think its possible to exercise those options (and have them flown at mainline) as opposed to buying more CRJ900's or E2's operated by express?

[Irony]

+1

[Rowdy]

The a220-300 won't be at express. I'm not sure what the configurations are like on the -100, but I'd assume it too would be outside of the scope language, unless AC decides to bully ACPA into allowing it and adding some more wide bodies. IIRC it was based on a fleet ratio with them was it not?

I could see the 175's at Jazz, as AC manipulates the now unionizing group at SKR and GGN.

[rudder]

AC acquired the CS300/A220-300 for a per unit cost less than the list price for a CRJ900. Whether the math works for further CRJ900 aircraft at Express likely has to do with the willingness of BBD to offer a discount to AC/CHR.

Rudder, Air Canada has 30 A220 options with substation rights between the -300 and -100, at, as you've mentioned heavily discounted rates. How do you think this might impact Air Canada's intentions towards its regional fleet renewal plans? Does the price of the A220 have an impact on the airlines regional renewal strategy, do you think its possible to exercise those options (and have them flown at mainline) as opposed to buying more CRJ900's or E2's operated by express?

I have no information as to whether AC has deeply discounted prices on its C series options. BBD needed a significant order for the C series from a credible North American carrier. AC was in the right place at the right time. If AC does have convertible options at the same rate as the firm orders (news reports infer a 67% discount) then AC certainly seems to be sitting in an enviable position. I cannot imagine that Airbus would be impressed with potential convertible options outstanding at below manufacturing cost pricing. But Airbus knew what they were buying (including assumed liabilities). Only time will tell.

There are more than a few 76 seat Express jets operating on flights with just 25-50 pax on board. Not sure how putting that same passenger load on a mainline 110-145 seat C series would be viewed as beneficial. There will always be a role for 76 seat/2 class jets at Express. In particular, the CRJ900 with its 4 hour range. The question is whether it will be a fleet of 46 (status quo), more, or less. Once again, only time will tell.

[Lightchop]

What flights have 50 or less pax? I don't think I've seen a load on any of my planes lower than 60 in a looong time and typically they hover around the 70 mark.

[rudder]

What flights have 50 or less pax? I don't think I've seen a load on any of my planes lower than 60 in a looong time and typically they hover around the 70 mark.

Ok. Let’s make it a pax load of 60-70 on a 110-145 seat aircraft. Does that make money? Or how about going from twice daily 76 seat jet service to once daily 145 seat jet service. Will that make all the overseas connections at the hub?

The CS300 is not an E190 with 48 more seats - it is an A319 with ETOPS capability that burns 20% less fuel. Time for people to stop viewing the CS100/300 as being regional jet substitutes. AC certainly does not view them that way. The A220-300’s at AC will create their own new routes, in many cases bypassing the hub. It is to the NB jet class what the 787 was to the WB jet class.

The CRJ900 has a capability to offer long range flights (by regional standards) with a 12 seat J class product. That creates meaningful revenue opportunities and extends city pair possibilities from the hub to 1500nm+. Well subscribed routes can be up gauged to mainline size aircraft. Less well subscribed routes can still be serviced using the 76 seat jet.

Somebody on the top floor at YUL HQ knows what the long range fleet plan is for Express. There are 24 older and fuel inefficient 50 seat CRJ’s in service. There are 25 first generation 175’s in service. Perhaps, much like the C-series order, minds can be influenced by attractive pricing from manufacturers. The E2 jet is expensive and has a multi-year wait list. The future of the CRJ program at BBD now has a big question mark on it. Negotiations for C series aircraft (beyond the existing contract) would take place with Airbus as opposed to BBD. Airbus is not known for the deep price discounting practices employed by Boeing and BBD on the C series.

Fleet renewal takes years of pre-planning. Factors such as aircraft availability, new vs used, own vs lease, fuel pricing, interest rates, commercial strategy, are all considered. Another factor is the availability of pilot labour at the Express level. Can Express sustain a pilot population of 2000+ pilots as pilot attrition rates continue at a hundreds per year rate? How will this affect the Express fleet size?

Returning to the original thread topic, one cannot help but think that partial or total Express consolidation would be under consideration in light of pilot supply considerations, potential Express fleet changes, recent labour developments, economies of scale, quality control, and elimination of organizational redundancy.

[FL-280]

What flights have 50 or less pax? I don't think I've seen a load on any of my planes lower than 60 in a looong time and typically they hover around the 70 mark.

Ok. Let’s make it a pax load of 60-70 on a 110-145 seat aircraft. Does that make money? Or how about going from twice daily 76 seat jet service to once daily 145 seat jet service. Will that make all the overseas connections at the hub?

The CS300 is not an E190 with 48 more seats - it is an A319 with ETOPS capability that burns 20% less fuel. Time for people to stop viewing the CS100/300 as being regional jet substitutes. AC certainly does not view them that way. The A220-300’s at AC will create their own new routes, in many cases bypassing the hub. It is to the NB jet class what the 787 was to the WB jet class.

The CRJ900 has a capability to offer long range flights (by regional standards) with a 12 seat J class product. That creates meaningful revenue opportunities and extends city pair possibilities from the hub to 1500nm+. Well subscribed routes can be up gauged to mainline size aircraft. Less well subscribed routes can still be serviced using the 76 seat jet.

Somebody on the top floor at YUL HQ knows what the long range fleet plan is for Express. There are 24 older and fuel inefficient 50 seat CRJ’s in service. There are 25 first generation 175’s in service. Perhaps, much like the C-series order, minds can be influenced by attractive pricing from manufacturers. The E2 jet is expensive and has a multi-year wait list. The future of the CRJ program at BBD now has a big question mark on it. Negotiations for C series aircraft (beyond the existing contract) would take place with Airbus as opposed to BBD. Airbus is not known for the deep price discounting practices employed by Boeing and BBD on the C series.

Fleet renewal takes years of pre-planning. Factors such as aircraft availability, new vs used, own vs lease, fuel pricing, interest rates, commercial strategy, are all considered. Another factor is the availability of pilot labour at the Express level. Can Express sustain a pilot population of 2000+ pilots as pilot attrition rates continue at a hundreds per year rate? How will this affect the Express fleet size?

Returning to the original thread topic, one cannot help but think that partial or total Express consolidation would be under consideration in light of pilot supply considerations, potential Express fleet changes, recent labour developments, economies of scale, quality control, and elimination of organizational redundancy.

+1, Kudos for a great post.

I do believe something in this since will happen. Once the seniority fight is over, it will be a great thing for all express pilots across the nation.

[Cavalier44]

What flights have 50 or less pax? I don't think I've seen a load on any of my planes lower than 60 in a looong time and typically they hover around the 70 mark.

Ok. Let’s make it a pax load of 60-70 on a 110-145 seat aircraft. Does that make money? Or how about going from twice daily 76 seat jet service to once daily 145 seat jet service. Will that make all the overseas connections at the hub?

The CS300 is not an E190 with 48 more seats - it is an A319 with ETOPS capability that burns 20% less fuel. Time for people to stop viewing the CS100/300 as being regional jet substitutes. AC certainly does not view them that way. The A220-300’s at AC will create their own new routes, in many cases bypassing the hub. It is to the NB jet class what the 787 was to the WB jet class.

The CRJ900 has a capability to offer long range flights (by regional standards) with a 12 seat J class product. That creates meaningful revenue opportunities and extends city pair possibilities from the hub to 1500nm+. Well subscribed routes can be up gauged to mainline size aircraft. Less well subscribed routes can still be serviced using the 76 seat jet.

Somebody on the top floor at YUL HQ knows what the long range fleet plan is for Express. There are 24 older and fuel inefficient 50 seat CRJ’s in service. There are 25 first generation 175’s in service. Perhaps, much like the C-series order, minds can be influenced by attractive pricing from manufacturers. The E2 jet is expensive and has a multi-year wait list. The future of the CRJ program at BBD now has a big question mark on it. Negotiations for C series aircraft (beyond the existing contract) would take place with Airbus as opposed to BBD. Airbus is not known for the deep price discounting practices employed by Boeing and BBD on the C series.

Fleet renewal takes years of pre-planning. Factors such as aircraft availability, new vs used, own vs lease, fuel pricing, interest rates, commercial strategy, are all considered. Another factor is the availability of pilot labour at the Express level. Can Express sustain a pilot population of 2000+ pilots as pilot attrition rates continue at a hundreds per year rate? How will this affect the Express fleet size?

Returning to the original thread topic, one cannot help but think that partial or total Express consolidation would be under consideration in light of pilot supply considerations, potential Express fleet changes, recent labour developments, economies of scale, quality control, and elimination of organizational redundancy.

I’m inclined to agree with you. I do believe that a consolidation in the Express carriers is inevitable, although my estimate would be not for at least another five years provided that the supply of pilots to the Express carriers doesn’t decrease much more than it is at present. Both Jazz and Sky Regional are locked in to 10-year, fixed-cost CPAs with Air Canada, expiring in 2025 and 2027 respectively. As long as this continues to be a profitable arrangement for Air Canada, there’s little incentive to change this in the short term. With that being said, there are a number of ways that Air Canada could cut costs by pushing for consolidation and fleet rationalization in the five to 10-year timeframe.

With regard to the Jazz CRJ900s and Sky Regional E175s, these are two very similar aircraft which fill almost identical niches in the Express market. The oldest Jazz CRJ900s date back to 2011, meaning there’s no imperative to replace these aircraft in the short term. The oldest Sky Regional E175s are the ex-Air Canada fins which were delivered in 2005. While they’re more than a decade old at this point, they remain relatively low-time and low-cycle aircraft. The fact that additional upgrades are being introduced for the E175 fleet such as FMS software updates (Epic Load 27.2) indicates these aircraft will be staying with us for a while yet. While the CRJ900 does beat the E175 in fuel burn, the advantage is not so great that it would make sense to replace an entire fleet of 25 relatively young aircraft at this stage.

In the longer term, it does make good financial sense to replace these aircraft with a common type. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages which I won’t discuss at length, but there are many factors to consider here. The first is the future of the CRJ programme - if Bombardier does indeed sell it off, will whatever company that takes over the programme have the resources and expertise to support the fleet over the 20+ years they can expect to remain in service at Express? As another poster has mentioned, Air Canada is not subjected to the weight limitations for regional aircraft that are in place south of the border, which means that the E175-E2 is a viable contender. However, the only Express carrier that is operating newly manufactured aircraft at this time is Jazz. Sky Regional has never operated new aircraft and has always sourced them from the used market. If we do see a new common type introduced to replace the CRJ900 and E175 in the post-2025 timeline, it would make sense for a merger to occur at this time with the new airline operating a single type of large regional aircraft. Prior to that happening, I don’t see any advantage to a potential Jazz/Sky Regional merger.

[rudder]

Couple of factual points:

- 15 of the 21 Jazz CRJ900’s are circa 2005/2006 factory deliveries
- CPA expiries for JAZZ/SKY/GGN are 2025/2027/2028 respectively (although there is a rumour out there that both the GGN and SKY CPA’s have 12 month notice cancelation provisions available to AC)
- in terms of mission and direct operating costs, the CRJ900NG outperforms the first generation E175’s. E2 is likely comparable or superior for mission. List price for CRJ900NG and second generation E175 are comparable (US46-48MM). List price for E2 is estimated 15% higher than second generation E175.

I agree that current 175 fleet will remain in service for foreseeable future. AC is likely benefiting from favourable lease rates for older first generation 175’s (10) and the balance of the SKY fleet (15) are owned outright by AC. Therefore cost of ownership quite reasonable. Operating costs however are high.

So in terms of Express fleet the questions are:

- will the Express 76 seat jet fleet remain static or grow?
- if the plan from AC is to grow the Express 76 seat jet fleet, will AC prefer older leased 175’s or new CRJ900NG’s?
- as the older CRJ900’s and first generation 175’s approach 20 years in service (circa 2025), what will be the preferred replacement?

So, some near term considerations. And some medium term considerations. Little doubt that price (whether purchase or lease) will be a significant determining factor in these Express fleet decisions made by AC. Best long term bet is is the most fuel efficient product that is reasonably priced.

AC is still focused on getting out costs (continued Cost Transformation Program). Part of potential cost reductions at Express could include fleet renewal. More cost savings could also be achieved through elimination of overhead resulting from duplication. And not to be minimized is the inevitability of increased labour costs and potential labour conflict at Express carriers that have recently unionized.

Remains to be seen whether consolidation becomes a strategy to manage all of the developing issues within the Express system.