Air Tindi Flight Missing

[Roadrunnersmother]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

No approach ban at Whati. No weather obs either.

[iflyforpie]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

I always look at these things and try to figure out some causes. As in, let's come up with ideas so the next guy won't do it. As in, why were they low enough to hit something over 25 miles out? Not a great idea to be anywhere near that low, that far back on a VMC day. The guys knew the neighbourhood. That's why I'm thinking altimeter setting. Was there a big pressure change since the last time the plane flew?
Illya

Well we have had some significant dry arctic highs over most of the country which has made altimeter settings approach 31.00” and stacks of isobars over the GFA. It’s quite possible that 30.76” was set read back “76 set and cross checked” on two or three altimeters only looking at the 100s hand or last digits.

[iflyforpie]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

No approach ban at Whati. No weather obs either.

Sorry.. I misread the YZF METAR thinking it was Whati.

[co-joe]

Co-Joe: but realistically the 100 nm safe is higher because of the 11 800 AMA for rocks 180 nm west of there,

That's why I will wait for the trained people with the actual information to give me the cause...maybe a review of a CAP GEN is in order.

You do see that I made a mistake in typing and went back and changed it, but hey good for you for taking a quote of a quote of a quote, instead of quoting the original post that I changed and using it against me. What I meant was that the 100 nm safe is high due to terrain quite a ways to the west, not along their route.

[Roadrunnersmother]

I had the pleasure of knowing both of the pilots. Both extrodinary men, amazing and SAFE pilots. I know Will would have never descended below a minimum altitude unless he was in VMC so I’m confident that it would not have been CFIT. Neither of the guys were cowboys. Its tough right now not knowing what exactly happened to the plane and a lot of people are scratching their heads as to how this happened but for now all we can do is wait for the TSB to do their thing. In the mean time if you guys feel like helping swing by gofundme and help support their families.
https://www.gofundme.com/memorial-for-zach-mckillop
https://ca.gofundme.com/in-memory-of-will-hayworth

I don't think you know these guys as well as you think.

[shimmydampner]

The “cause” is simple. Descended below a published altitude IMC.

Are you willing to stake your "reputation" on that.

[Illya Kuryakin]

The “cause” is simple. Descended below a published altitude IMC.

Are you willing to stake your "reputation" on that.

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

[goingnowherefast]

That's a pretty pointless statement.

[C.W.E.]

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

I am trying to come up with an explanation that would cause someone to hit the ground if you did not descend below a published altitude.....

...as soon as I find one I will get right back here and share it with you all. ...

But then you and I don't really know jack shit about flying do we Illya?

[Cliff Jumper]

But then you and I don't really know jack shit about flying do we Illya?

Well, as both you and Ilya know, being the experienced and extremely knowledgeable aviators that you are, the cause of any accident isn't WHAT happened, but WHY it happened.

[iflyforpie]

The “cause” is simple. Descended below a published altitude IMC.

Are you willing to stake your "reputation" on that.

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

No. They could have wound up below an IFR safe altitude in any number of ways.

Descended implies that it was deliberate and controlled. That they were in VMC or otherwise believed they were safe to descend because of a loss of situational awareness. In essence, CFIT.

But it is still far too early to rule out loss of control, structural failure, instrument failure causing loss of control, fuel starvation or contamination, fire, etc etc all which would have had the pilots acutely aware that ground contact was imminent, yet with nothing they could do about it.

If that was the case, saying “they descended below IFR safe altitudes” is a moot point. It’s like saying the Gimli Glider didn’t meet stabilized approach criteria or Air Ontario didn’t meet the IFR departure criteria.

[Illya Kuryakin]

Pie, don't know why you feel the need to stir it up. Descending is simply going down. You can descend the stairs, or fall down them. End result is a descent. My beer glass descended from the table to the floor.
Anyway. Get back to us in three years when the official findings state the airplane descended below the level of the terrain.
Cheers
Illya

[pelmet]

Pie, don't know why you feel the need to stir it up. Descending is simply going down. You can descend the stairs, or fall down them. End result is a descent. My beer glass descended from the table to the floor.
Anyway. Get back to us in three years when the official findings state the airplane descended below the level of the terrain.
Cheers
Illya

The question is....how do you know that they were IMC when they descended below their a published altitude?

The investigators will try to figure that out. Of course it can be VMC and pitch black outside or whitout conditions. Hopefully there was a CVR with a helpful transcript.

[shimmydampner]

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

So you're guaranteeing this was CFIT? You brain can't imagine any other possible scenario?

[shimmydampner]

Pie, don't know why you feel the need to stir it up. Descending is simply going down. You can descend the stairs, or fall down them. End result is a descent.

Give it a rest Doc. You deliberately stirred things up by implying that the crew were messing around below min altitudes in IMC. And now you're being disingenuous with this crock.

[goingnowherefast]

I think the mods should clean up this mess. Two pilots are dead and we're arguing about semantics. They descending below an IFR altitude, well duh, they hit the ground. Nobody on avcanada knows if it was even a controlled descent, nevermind intentional.

How about, out of respect for the dead, we wait until some more information comes out before the eventual speculation and the blame game from the old farts can begin.

[shimmydampner]

Nobody on avcanada knows if it was even a controlled descent, nevermind intentional..

Exactly. And that is precisely why I think it's worth arguing about the semantics in this case, to make sure someone isn't casting baseless aspersion on the crew.

[McGyver]

Have they released the registration number of the aircraft yet?

[Roadrunnersmother]

Have they released the registration number of the aircraft yet?

Yes

[LifeAt90Kts]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/fa ... -1.5015211

CVR located.