What's the oldest age one should consider AC

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Fanblade
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade »

RVR6000 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:32 pm The C-Series will also be opening up new routes. I doubt they’ll completely reduce the 320s, some are quite new and are planned to be on property beyond 2024. Company loves the 321 yields.

I’ve only seen hiring being accelerated, use to be a GS of 24-30 ppl. We’ve been seeing 40-50 ppl for past year, 3 GS already for 2019.
Again. Look at the fleet plan. Anything else is pure speculation.

i agree AC is waaay behind in hiring. We talking about beyond 2020.
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TheStig
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by TheStig »

Ben Smith was the champion of growth.

Rovinescu is now focused on the share price.

Rousseau is watching the purse strings.

This was from May, there are now 5 A330's arriving, not 4 as stated in the article.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... -8-options

Air Canada (AC, Montréal Trudeau) has, for the time being, no plans to exercise its options for thirteen B787-8s given the current economic forecasts for the world and Canada, CFO Michael Rousseau was quoted by Air Transport World as saying at the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference.

According to the ch-aviation fleets module, the Canadian flag carrier currently operates eight B787-8s and twenty-six B787-9s, and has a further four units of the latter type on order from Boeing.

Recently, Air Canada has announced it will add a further four A330-300s to its existing fleet of eight units of the type in order to replace the outgoing B767-300(ER)s. The carrier also plans to invest a total of CAD275 million dollars (USD213.5 million) into cabin refurbishments of the Airbus twinjets in order to bring them on par with the newer Dreamliners.


Not saying the party is over, but beyond 2020 the airline is hedging its bets against economic growth and growth will slow. We've all heard hiring numbers from the horses' mouth, but Flight Operations is downstream from the commercial side of the airline.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by jpilot77 »

The options on the 787 were not exercised for the time being. The options were not canceled.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by flashheart »

Fanblade wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:36 pm
flashheart wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am From Murray's mouth - they are planning on indefinite growth. Not saying that couldn't change.

But - just announced YVR - Auckland, with 2 other routes

That's 4 flights weekly with 4 pilots per leg...

Those long haul flights is where quality of life goes up. With rumours of more to come...

I'm "cautiously optimistic"
Yes the LAST of the 787's show up this year so there is growth in 2019. We were talking 2020 and beyond.

Auckland is seasonal. Dec to March. Low season for the WB fleet. It wont increase jobs. Just make the slow months a bit busier.

I have never heard anyone say AC is planning indefinite growth including Murray. That wouldn't be true or responsible. What I have heard him say is hiring for the forseable future. Forseable future means no more than planning for the following summer.
Seasonal, for now. And when most pilots have vacation. DBMs of 85 hrs year around?

It will mean more positions.

And any airline exec loves the idea of new routes. It’s sexy and huge bragging rights. Calin is not going to be taking any chances don’t get me wrong, but I am sure there will be more new routes, pending no major global political disasters
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Eric Janson
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Eric Janson »

KAG wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:03 am With so much turmoil at WJ these days, conversations abound in the flight deck on what age is one too old to consider AC, and yes I've considered it myself, although I think I'll be staying put (I truly hope I'm making the right decision). That said if things get much worse I will apply.
I figured doesnt hurt to ask to have some insight for when it comes up. The pension is a big deal, what's the full pension requirement, I've heard both 20 and 25 years. What's the penalty per year short? Hows the lifestyle as an RP and OT capability (I've heard RP has great lifestyle and lots of OT).
I hear rouge is going pretty senior and the 320 mainline jobs are max days worked? How junior will the a220 go left seat? I figure the max upgrade times are getting too long now.
My personal hangup is the flat pay. Its pretty harsh for 4 years, any new hires care to post what the net monthly pay is?
Thanks in advance.
My personal opinion:-

Once you have a Jet Command never give it up!

There are no guarantees in this Business.

Once you go back to First Officer there is no guarantee you will ever see the left seat. Once you've been First Officer for more than a year a lot of companies will not consider you for a DEC position.

The last company that arrogantly thought they could make me First Officer again (after hiring me as DEC) and that I would just accept it got my resignation letter instead!

I'm not interested in being First Officer - it has zero appeal for me.

There will always be jobs for experienced Type Rated Captains - even in a Global recession. That's not the case as First Officer - First Officer jobs may be hard to come by as most Airlines will train their own people. Just have a look at the jobs currently available - about 3:1 Captain to First Officer.

I've been through 2 bankruptcies and a bunch of other unpleasantness so far in my career. There's always been a job for me when I needed one.
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Fanblade
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade »

https://business.financialpost.com/news ... oplay=true

Not predicting anything. Just posting this as an illustration. In fact as is often the case, it’s hard to understand why no one saw this coming. The Canadian Energy sector piles Billions into the Canadian economy. It’s hard to understand why spillover into the greater economy wouldn’t be expected. Well hopefully this is just a pause. One quarter doesn’t show a trend.

But back to my point. No one saw it coming.

SARS
911
2007 Great Recession
US housing crash.
Savings and Loan fiasco in the 80’s
20% interest rates in the early 80’s.
DotCom bubble of 2001.

That’s just off the top of my head.

Any other old farts what to add to the list?
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KAG
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by KAG »

Thanks for the well thought out discussion points. I'm gonna ride it out at WJ, 5th year captain is tough to walk away from, especially with years of service and a pension on the horizon. I remember some tough times you folks went through, were now going through ours. It's a cycle, as someone said the tides out, it'll come back. The culture we once had is changed and that's fine, frankly we needed to grow up in some ways. Its still a great job.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Daniel Cooper »

Remember this is what WJ is like at the best of the best times economy wise.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by fruitloops »

Incredible that a WJ CA could be at that point of a career decision making process, I guess that climate over there is that bad. However...I think its a good decision KAG to stay where you are, as much as I like AC & how happy I'm here, i don't think you would find enough of a difference in co. culture or management's discretion/planning to make up for the serious loss of pay and seniority you would have. The bottom dregs of AC flat pay and being on reserve for part of it is not worth seeking out those 'potential' differences. Stick it out, be a clock puncher, focus on your life outside of flying more for now, things will inevitably stabilize or improve.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by yycflyguy »

jpilot77 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:25 pm The options on the 787 were not exercised for the time being. The options were not canceled.
This was my understanding too. I thought they were delaying options because ULR had to be negotiated with ACPA and the direction TC was going to take with Flight/duty limits and augmentation left too many unknowns to exercise the options.... of course I also heard AC wanted to negotiate rouge conditions onto the 787s to save a buck on their desire to start BKK, MAN, SIN - which is an easy no vote for me.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Zaibatsu »

Sometimes jumping ship is a good thing.

Sometimes it’s not.

Back in the early mid 2000s when Jazz was paying peanuts and it took most of a decade to upgrade a jump to Westjet seemed like the way to go with their huge expansion and fast upgrades. But the music stopped and FOs are waiting a long time to upgrade.

Those who stuck it out at Jazz probably went PML 1.0 and are narrow body captain or a WB FO blockholder with the world their oyster for the rest of their career.

It’s a lottery, this industry is.
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danield
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by danield »

My response would be age 50. 10-15 years gives you enough time to retire in the top half of a NB CA or WB FO list with somewhat of a pension at 65. 4 years to 200k on WB FO or 2-3 years to junior NB CA at 220k. Or you can remain senior NB FO and still make 120k+ after 4 years.
Take home on flat pay is pretty good compared to other airlines. Year 1 flat pay take home approximately $4200.00 and Year 4 approximately $5600.00 with ample overtime opportunity should you need it. I think if I remember correctly WestJet CA take home is approximately $6000.00 after ESOP and benefits. Entry level positions available allow you to work as much (NB FO) or as little (WB RP) as you wish.
After 4 years you have virtually every position at your disposal and the pay is good regardless of what you are on. You can chase the extra $ or enjoy a good lifestyle for still a very good wage.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by FL-280 »

50!???!!? Damn man. I am just under thirty and thinking of not going, not for my age but for the seniority I will have. AC has hired massive amounts in the last three years, times are good, real good. Bad times follow good times.

Everyone seems to forget this is a cyclical industry. I dont know maybe I am just really pessimist
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danield
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by danield »

FL-280 wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:13 pm 50!???!!? Damn man. I am just under thirty and thinking of not going, not for my age but for the seniority I will have. AC has hired massive amounts in the last three years, times are good, real good. Bad times follow good times.

Everyone seems to forget this is a cyclical industry. I dont know maybe I am just really pessimist
Yes as extreme as my answer may sound, your post is the precise reason why. The industry is cyclical. This wave will certainly not last forever, however why not improve your situation and solidify a seniority number while the getting is good. Even the lowest paying positions will yield more money down the road AND better job security than one would experience as a WestJet CA.
At my previous employer this was a frequent question asked in the crew room, many said 40-50. I say 50 if you intend on flying to 65. 15 years gives you a good career at AC, 20+ years gives you an excellent career. The question is who do you count on to be around in an economic downturn. No amount of seniority will protect you from bankruptcy. Whether you are at WestJet, Jazz, Transat, Sunwing, AC we are all at the mercy of the industry.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by altiplano »

FL-280 wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:13 pm 50!???!!? Damn man. I am just under thirty and thinking of not going, not for my age but for the seniority I will have.
All the power to you...

But I"d urge that you need to rethink this though...

In your 20's and thinking you won't get enough seniority because too many people are hired recently ahead of you?

There will always be someone ahead of you...someone younger than you... you just can't compare... you will never be the most senior... you can't control that.

in this biz you have to look at the merits of the position and the probabilities.

The probability is, if you were hired at 30, you will work a 30-35 year career and retire with a pension as a relatively senior wide body Captain, after making a pile of money flying around the world, and you'll have a pretty good time doing it all...

I was hired older than that and I watched lots of guys junior to, less experienced, and younger than me get hired into AC when I had been trying for years. Frustrating to see so many get on ahead of me, I wondered if I was at the back of the wave when my call came... but turning it down out of spite would have been an enormous mistake.

Good luck with your decision.
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Daniel Cooper
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Daniel Cooper »

Isn't how many are below you more important than how many are above you? There's a lot of very good positions at AC and only a few that are not so great. As long as there are people below you to fill those roles you are golden. If they are hiring 1000 over the next 3 years there is going to be a lot of people below you if you join now.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Observer »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:53 pm
FL-280 wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:13 pm 50!???!!? Damn man. I am just under thirty and thinking of not going, not for my age but for the seniority I will have.
All the power to you...

But I"d urge that you need to rethink this though...

In your 20's and thinking you won't get enough seniority because too many people are hired recently ahead of you?

There will always be someone ahead of you...someone younger than you... you just can't compare... you will never be the most senior... you can't control that.

in this biz you have to look at the merits of the position and the probabilities.

The probability is, if you were hired at 30, you will work a 30-35 year career and retire with a pension as a relatively senior wide body Captain, after making a pile of money flying around the world, and you'll have a pretty good time doing it all...

I was hired older than that and I watched lots of guys junior to, less experienced, and younger than me get hired into AC when I had been trying for years. Frustrating to see so many get on ahead of me, I wondered if I was at the back of the wave when my call came... but turning it down out of spite would have been an enormous mistake.

Good luck with your decision.
Very well said! The best time to plant a tree was yesterday. The next best time is today. :D
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by RVR6000 »

Daniel Cooper wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:49 pm Isn't how many are below you more important than how many are above you? There's a lot of very good positions at AC and only a few that are not so great. As long as there are people below you to fill those roles you are golden. If they are hiring 1000 over the next 3 years there is going to be a lot of people below you if you join now.

Agree, if you can live with year 1-2 pay a lot of good positions open up relatively quickly. Off-reserve 777/787 FO is a pretty good gig, Rouge 767 or 319 FO for it’s socialized aspect are great to ride out the few years of crappy pay. It doesn’t take that many guys below you for these positions to open up. Junior captain usually hovers around 80-85% system wide seniority.
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Last edited by RVR6000 on Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by RVR6000 »

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