Beginning of Transat wave?

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rudder
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by rudder »

With a market cap under $200MM TRZ is a potential target for an unsolicited takeover offer.

There is a certain other related company sitting on $1B+ in cash. Acquiring TRZ and selling off non-operational assets would certainly improve its own competitive position and increase yields.
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GATRKGA
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by GATRKGA »

rudder wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:03 am With a market cap under $200MM TRZ is a potential target for an unsolicited takeover offer.

There is a certain other related company sitting on $1B+ in cash. Acquiring TRZ and selling off non-operational assets would certainly improve its own competitive position and increase yields.
Air Canada taking over transat ... how would that look for the pilots ? Doh? Jobless?

Interesting times
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FL320
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by FL320 »

tsgas wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:49 am
DropTanks wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:12 am
GATRKGA wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:02 am

I didn’t think Air Transat relied on financial success to remain competitive given how it’s an uplift for transat group which is in fact financially successful ... if Air Transat, the airline is financially profitable it’s a bonus, but not a requirement.

Who knows... maybe it is the beginning of the end at transat ?
How do you define Transat Group as financially successful? The financial reports are there for all to see. Yet another money destroying quarter under the belt. You do realize that they are all reported together right? In fact the airline is simply a cost center for Group Transat so the money losing quarter belongs to the entire company not just the airline. Just about the last airline I’d hang my hat for my career.
Very well said.
Drop Tanks and Tsgas, where are you hanging your hat now? Everyone can be a drama queen-most of the time people with limited knowledge-just curious to know a little bit more about your background. So far you have zero credibility.
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DropTanks
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by DropTanks »

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Last edited by DropTanks on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
rudder
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by rudder »

GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:07 am
Air Canada taking over transat ... how would that look for the pilots ? Doh? Jobless?

Interesting times
Jobless? Why?

Most of the AT fleet would be required for service (Airbus only).

Take a look at the balance sheet. As long as not too much debt is being assumed, offer 2x today’s trading price. Not sure if TRZ has a poison pill provision or not.

If balance sheet is a problem, offer combination of cash and stock in exchange.

Sell all non-operational assets (hotels/land/etc). Maintain the tour company, store fronts, and operational staff.

Integrate with current operation in the red and white paint job. Unions have provisions to deal with seniority integration.

There will be kicking and screaming from some in La Belle Province but the reality is that one QC based company acquiring another is actually a best outcome scenario.
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tsgas
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by tsgas »

FL320 wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:25 am
tsgas wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:49 am
DropTanks wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:12 am

How do you define Transat Group as financially successful? The financial reports are there for all to see. Yet another money destroying quarter under the belt. You do realize that they are all reported together right? In fact the airline is simply a cost center for Group Transat so the money losing quarter belongs to the entire company not just the airline. Just about the last airline I’d hang my hat for my career.
Very well said.
Drop Tanks and Tsgas, where are you hanging your hat now? Everyone can be a drama queen-most of the time people with limited knowledge-just curious to know a little bit more about your background. So far you have zero credibility.
Reality doesn't need your so called "credibility". :shock:
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fish4life
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by fish4life »

Aimia has a bunch of cash and nothing to do with it...
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by TFTMB heavy »

GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:07 am
rudder wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:03 am With a market cap under $200MM TRZ is a potential target for an unsolicited takeover offer.

There is a certain other related company sitting on $1B+ in cash. Acquiring TRZ and selling off non-operational assets would certainly improve its own competitive position and increase yields.
Air Canada taking over Transat ... how would that look for the pilots? Doh? Jobless?

Interesting times
I've been predicting it for some time now, my bet is if ACPA rolls into ALPA it is a near done deal. I'm only guessing and have no insider info. But based on AC doing everything in its power to avoid labour disputes and the mess acquiring Canadian made...

Seniority would be a date of hire merge of the lists if they decide to blend them. No need to rebrand the airline as most of the value in acquiring Transat is in the distribution network they have in Europe with the client base. The most recognized brand in the Group is the airline, you can't paint the planed with AC colours and keep all the business associated with TS brand.

So all of you that ditched TS in the past few years for AC will end up behind the pilots that stayed at TS on the seniority list if they blend them.

BTW one of our pilots has a degree in finance and does a deep dive into each Q report, he tells me we're doing ok. I'll take his opinion over the keyboard analysts.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by TFTMB heavy »

DropTanks wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:36 am Limited knowledge. lol. Yeah man, I’m the one claiming Transat as “successful” when all they do is pop Champagne corks if they break even. Please. You do know the purpose of being in business is to turn a profit and not simply to employ a few people from Quebec? When I was there it was all scary times of needing pilot concessions because we were ripe for a hostile takeover with such a low stock price. And where is that stock price now? Even lower than before. Don’t get me wrong, I like Transat. Very nice people and great culture but you gotta face it, they destroy money. Simple math.
Those were not fun times and the whole reason for the concessions, from all employee groups btw not just the pilots, was to protect cash flow. When your debt ration gets too high you can't get credit and that is never good for any business.

We ended up taking a deal that froze our pay for some time and other concessions but if the company became profitable again we would get a share of it. We ended up with a few years in a row where we got a decent size profit sharing.
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GATRKGA
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by GATRKGA »

Wouldn’t the blending of the list go to a vote between the two unions? 4000+ votes would outdo 700 some people if AC pilots didn’t want the list merged...

Or is this incorrect?
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FL-280
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by FL-280 »

History has shown us that there is no way in hell the lists would be merged. That is why it's called ACPA and not ALPA....

It would continue to run as a seperate company IMHO
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by TFTMB heavy »

ALPA is date of hire blend.
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FL-280
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by FL-280 »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:52 pm ALPA is date of hire blend.

Thats fine , Air Canada is not ALPA and they would be the one buying
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by TFTMB heavy »

FL-280 wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:40 pm
TFTMB heavy wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:52 pm ALPA is date of hire blend.

Thats fine , Air Canada is not ALPA and they would be the one buying
I also said I only see it happening if ACPA joins ALPA...
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by goingnowherefast »

I suspect the top execs worry about more than what unions represent one employee group. They probably don't even care.
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by TFTMB heavy »

goingnowherefast wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:26 pm I suspect the top execs worry about more than what unions represent one employee group. They probably don't even care.
AC management has been proactive when it comes to avoiding labour disputes in the past 5-6 years. They got involved in the Jazz-GNN deal.
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GATRKGA
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by GATRKGA »

Very interesting ...

Anyone remember how the Canadian / AC merger went through? Were they represented by the same union? I don't recall the details.

And what ended up being the animosity between AC and CDN pilots back in the day when this merger happened?
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Ypilot
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by Ypilot »

Wow, amazing.

Seriously, it is really beautiful to see where this conversation is headed, there is a word for it, speculation.

Now. Let's say that I would really be an AC pilot like tsgas aka ex ts pilot, why would I be voicing out my opinion about the lifespan that is left at TS. Let me do some Freud analysis for you. Your life isn't what you thought it would be, and you regret it. But if TS would go under, what a good decision would it be anyway. Ok, sorry guys I am just leveling off.
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DanWEC
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by DanWEC »

One thing had always been a rock solid fact- if my financial advisor said he was also a pilot he'd be out faster than wow.
Always a narrow viewpoint.

Although rudder seems to have some sensible perspective.

I have no idea what TRZ's working capital looks like but I very much doubt it's critical. They bought a huge tract of land to develop, but also had to sell a previous chunk to generate cash.

Share price was likely overvalued in the last 12 months which, in my opinion, is a large reason why they been shedding and trending down. Anyhow, as mentioned they have far more assets than a traditional airline- It's not just investors providing backing for credit to lease airplanes to fly routes, hoping to generate a revenue stream from seats with no assets or cushion.
Tourism is never static. There will always be periods of loss and adjustment, just the way it is. As I said in a post earlier, look at tui's trajectory the last 5 years- identical to TRZ's.

From a pilots perspective- I think everyone's job is safe. Worst case if something happened in the future, as rudder said, they would get bought out, not fold.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Beginning of Transat wave?

Post by Sharklasers »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:38 am
So all of you that ditched TS in the past few years for AC will end up behind the pilots that stayed at TS on the seniority list if they blend them.

You can rest assured that if the worst case scenerio merger happened the AC pilots would go down kicking and screaming. Article one of the ACPA contract says in the event of a merger the ACPA can void the contract and start from scratch, we can renegotiate all aspects of our contract and strike if needed. It would not be the warm DOH welcome you have pictured in your head. Even if ACPA goes ALPA the merger will not nessescarily be DOH, that is a myth. see the Virgin/Alaskan Merger if you want a very recent example, both alpa careers final outcome very diffèrent from straight DOH.
DOH and career expectations are to be looked at among other things.
I am not saying you wont get DOH, but its a long road from here to there.
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