WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

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Stratopaused
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Stratopaused »

pianokeys wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 1:19 pm Second, if that was such a risk as you assume, then why is SkyWest, Air Wisconsin, Express Jet, and some other US regionals not owned by the airlines they have CPAs with?
Conversely, why does Alaska own Horizon? Why does American own Envoy, Piedmont, and PSA? Why does Delta own Endeavor? Why did AC buy a chunk of Chorus? The trend in North American regionals is the opposite of what you're claiming: the majors are buying their feeders to have more control over them and use them as suppliers of pilots.
North Shore wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 pm I can’t see how selling off Encore (even with a CPA) makes sense? Part of their recruitment draw is the One List - without that, then salaries are going to have to go up to attract and keep people. Keep the one list, and sell Encore leads to huge training bills at the subsidiary...where’s the upside?
Quite right. No one has actually presented a business case for selling Encore, other than "AC sold Jazz, so WestJet will do it too!" It's not a good comparison at all, as I pointed out previously; it was in the shadow of the merger and 9/11, and the primary reason Jazz existed in the first place is that it was a merger of all of AC's and CA's regionals, not a new entity created by the airline. When Jazz was spun off, AC was desperate for every bit of petty cash they could muster, and Robert Milton might not even have thought that AC was going to survive. Also, AC retained control of Jazz Air Income Fund for several years.
If Onex sells off Encore for, say $100 million, and then pays out $20 million per year in the CPA, they'll make a small lump sum initially and lose more over the long term; if they retain Encore, that $20 million/year stays within the group of companies. If they're willing to drop $3.5 billion in cash and take on $1.5 billion in debt, I doubt they much care about a one-time payment of $0.1 billion, and I don't even know if Encore would be worth that much; their assets are 47 used Q400s, which aren't exactly flying off the shelves, and they would be totally at the mercy of their single client when it came to revenue and business decisions. On top of all that, the current CPA doesn't include money for making any substantial profit, because it would just be returned to the parent company anyway, so a new contract with higher rates would have to be negotiated if any new owners wanted to actually get anything out of it. That is to say, WestJet would end up spending more per year by selling Encore.
There are very few investors who would be willing to put money into such a venture, especially under the current CPA terms. Encore's greatest value is in helping to fill WestJet aircraft with connecting passengers, and that value doesn't mean much to anyone but WestJet's management and owners. Putting Encore out for an IPO would probably turn out a lot like Porter's did a few years ago, and they wouldn't get much, if anything, for it.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by jpilot77 »

My bet isn’t that Onex sells off Encore it’s that they buy Transat and merge it into Westjet.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by pilotbzh »

so no more caring owners I guess, Just employee working for a living....
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goingnowherefast
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by goingnowherefast »

I bet the recently unionized employee groups are even happier that they're in a union now. Not just the pilots, but everyone. Some solid and legally binding work rules with a major change in management.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Heliian »

fish4life wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 5:55 pm
Heliian wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 10:44 am
Diadem wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 10:26 am
WestJet has only had one quarterly loss since 2005. If that's struggling, then boy would I sure like to struggle!
Yes, trouble started as they were rolling out encore, which they then had to scale back, then came swoop and new routes and new aircraft.

Just shows that your quarterly returns are tailored for the investor as they still have 1.5 billion in debt that they don't include in their reports. But ya, fuel prices.
Uh pretty sure they have always showed that debt on quarterly reports, an example I believe they owe 600 million for the Q400’s at encore still being paid down over 10 years. They also have roughly 1.5 billion in cash which I’m sure they are getting which will cover the debt.

It would be like if you had $500k in RRSP’s and a 500k mortgage, even though the dollar value is the same you still have 500k in debt. It would be ridiculous to pay off your debt and leave yourself with no cash because then you would have no liquidity which is even worse than having debt with liquidity.

With that in mind how would a company sell off encore when they owe 600 million on their airplanes, not a lot of cash there. This deal values WJ at about half of what AC is worth while still being less than half the operation in size so they aren’t going to just “ sell it off” because who in their right mind would buy the sold off pieces instead of just buying AC stock which is a better value?
Maybe they can liquidate their entire fleet and then wet lease planes with crews from failed european airlines.

Anyway you grind it down, westjet is still massively in debt and on the precipice of losing more. If this deal doesn't go through, the company will surely have to do something to right itself.

Westjet stopped being a caring airline years ago, it's not profitable to be caring.
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Biff
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Biff »

Onex bought the company to make a 2x profit over the medium term. The only way to do that is to grow. I see a pretty big 787 order coming down within the next year.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Victory »

North Shore wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 pm I can’t see how selling off Encore (even with a CPA) makes sense? Part of their recruitment draw is the One List - without that, then salaries are going to have to go up to attract and keep people. Keep the one list, and sell Encore leads to huge training bills at the subsidiary...where’s the upside?
You don't need a One List for recruitment, just a PML to mainline. See Jazz. Also, don't forget Encore already has an unoffical PML to Air Canada :D
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Daniel Cooper »

The creation of WestJet Link is an indication that Encore was planned to be sold off even before the takeover. It's creating competition among feeders to keep the prices low. Just like Georgian, Jazz, Sky Regional. It wouldn't surprise me if WestJet also has something in the works with Georgian too actually.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Picesprick »

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/westje ... -1.5134407

Someone should let the CBC know all they need to do is head on over to Avcanada for the some "expert advice" on the matter, :roll: :roll: :lol:

For real though it is entertaining.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by fish4life »

Heliian wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:35 am
fish4life wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 5:55 pm
Heliian wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 10:44 am

Yes, trouble started as they were rolling out encore, which they then had to scale back, then came swoop and new routes and new aircraft.

Just shows that your quarterly returns are tailored for the investor as they still have 1.5 billion in debt that they don't include in their reports. But ya, fuel prices.
Uh pretty sure they have always showed that debt on quarterly reports, an example I believe they owe 600 million for the Q400’s at encore still being paid down over 10 years. They also have roughly 1.5 billion in cash which I’m sure they are getting which will cover the debt.

It would be like if you had $500k in RRSP’s and a 500k mortgage, even though the dollar value is the same you still have 500k in debt. It would be ridiculous to pay off your debt and leave yourself with no cash because then you would have no liquidity which is even worse than having debt with liquidity.

With that in mind how would a company sell off encore when they owe 600 million on their airplanes, not a lot of cash there. This deal values WJ at about half of what AC is worth while still being less than half the operation in size so they aren’t going to just “ sell it off” because who in their right mind would buy the sold off pieces instead of just buying AC stock which is a better value?
Maybe they can liquidate their entire fleet and then wet lease planes with crews from failed european airlines.

Anyway you grind it down, westjet is still massively in debt and on the precipice of losing more. If this deal doesn't go through, the company will surely have to do something to right itself.

Westjet stopped being a caring airline years ago, it's not profitable to be caring.
They aren’t in debt they have airplanes they own financed, if anything they are in a better financial position than some other airlines that just lease everything because WestJet actually owns airplanes. In fact if I remember correctly they have around 80 aircraft that are completely paid off and owned which is a great financial position to be in.

I’m also not sure how with only one quarter of loss recently and a turn around starting (clearly or Onex wouldn’t have paid 5 billion) they are on the precipice of going deep into debt. If you could explain your reasoning that would be great.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by pianokeys »

Stratopaused wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 11:10 pm
Conversely, why does Alaska own Horizon? Why does American own Envoy, Piedmont, and PSA? Why does Delta own Endeavor? Why did AC buy a chunk of Chorus? The trend in North American regionals is the opposite of what you're claiming: the majors are buying their feeders to have more control over them and use them as suppliers of pilots.
Well exactly! You claim its better for airlines to own their feeders, but there is no uniformity across the board, thats what Im trying to tell you. If your theory was correct that there is better control then every single airline would own its feeder airlines. Which we know is simply not true, its a mix. And because its a mix its hard to say which one is better. Thats what im trying to tell you. Owning them is no guarantee of seats, sales, life span, profit, pilot flow, and control. A solid CPA contractual agreement can nail out all these issues, I dont know why you cant seem to grasp that, business 101, contracts! Duh!!!

The issue is not many are cynical enough to think about the worst case. And many seem to ignore how volatile this industry really is.
Daniel Cooper wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:56 am The creation of WestJet Link is an indication that Encore was planned to be sold off even before the takeover. It's creating competition among feeders to keep the prices low. Just like Georgian, Jazz, Sky Regional. It wouldn't surprise me if WestJet also has something in the works with Georgian too actually.
You sir are a brilliant, brilliant man. I bet Jerry Schwartz is going to merge TS and GGN in to WS somehow. Thats my new wildcard prediction.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Heliian »

fish4life wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 6:15 am
Heliian wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:35 am
fish4life wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 5:55 pm

Uh pretty sure they have always showed that debt on quarterly reports, an example I believe they owe 600 million for the Q400’s at encore still being paid down over 10 years. They also have roughly 1.5 billion in cash which I’m sure they are getting which will cover the debt.

It would be like if you had $500k in RRSP’s and a 500k mortgage, even though the dollar value is the same you still have 500k in debt. It would be ridiculous to pay off your debt and leave yourself with no cash because then you would have no liquidity which is even worse than having debt with liquidity.

With that in mind how would a company sell off encore when they owe 600 million on their airplanes, not a lot of cash there. This deal values WJ at about half of what AC is worth while still being less than half the operation in size so they aren’t going to just “ sell it off” because who in their right mind would buy the sold off pieces instead of just buying AC stock which is a better value?
Maybe they can liquidate their entire fleet and then wet lease planes with crews from failed european airlines.

Anyway you grind it down, westjet is still massively in debt and on the precipice of losing more. If this deal doesn't go through, the company will surely have to do something to right itself.

Westjet stopped being a caring airline years ago, it's not profitable to be caring.
They aren’t in debt they have airplanes they own financed, if anything they are in a better financial position than some other airlines that just lease everything because WestJet actually owns airplanes. In fact if I remember correctly they have around 80 aircraft that are completely paid off and owned which is a great financial position to be in.

I’m also not sure how with only one quarter of loss recently and a turn around starting (clearly or Onex wouldn’t have paid 5 billion) they are on the precipice of going deep into debt. If you could explain your reasoning that would be great.
Sure, as you said they have 80 planes. Those planes cost money just sitting there. That leaves some financed as you say, then someone else currently owns them until that financing is paid off. Including the 787's which are on a leaseback deal. You can bet that the ones they own are the older and cheaper ones that have little resale value but are still an asset. Good news is their lease rates went down though due to a slower market. They're asset to debt ratio went from 1.08 in 2017 to 0.78 in 2018. They currently show 3.2billion in long term debt and lease obligations.

They are really good at making things look happy and shiney, but they can't do it forever. Hence the sale now while they still can.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by altiplano »

Biff wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:47 am Onex bought the company to make a 2x profit over the medium term. The only way to do that is to grow. I see a pretty big 787 order coming down within the next year.
I agree on the medium term cash out plan for Onex, but I don't think a pile of widebodies and new routes into already served markets is the way it will happen.

It's going to be unlocking of value, streamlining operations, and employee concessions IMO to meet the timeframe
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Rezy »

Some people are getting confused with the idea that a PE firm still needs to create value. They don’t. As they are the only shareholder, creating shareholder value is moot. The only variable is how to turn 5 billion from their purchase of WJ into 10 billion. There are lots of ways to do that and one of the biggest concerns they will have is risk. And how to offload that risk.
If they sell off Encore they no longer assume the risk of a Q tail going down on their balance sheet.
We just don’t know what their plans are, they could be long term (good for employees) or short term (bad for employees). Time will tell.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Duke Point »

Biff wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:47 am Onex bought the company to make a 2x profit over the medium term. The only way to do that is to grow. I see a pretty big 787 order coming down within the next year.
Growing is not necessarily the only way to add value. Taking WestJet back to its core strategy, and selling of components would impress potential investors just as well.

Why would they make a "big order" for 787's? You order just 6 and that's a billion dollars. That expenditure "must" make money....lots in order to justify it. The overseas market is already saturated from Canada to a degree, and a "guaranteed return" on international expansion is a crapshoot at best. Onex is shrewd, not stupid. They will not throw hundreds of millions or billions at an operation unless they see an airtight business case for that particular model.

They are absolutely looking at the current operation, and will likely look for immediate efficiency improvements. They will likely sell assets and leaseback based on the PE model. Guessing there will be a "settling period", with nothing drastic happening for some time so as not to spook anyone. Once they are the owner, there's nothing that can be done about any business decision they make. Only one man knows for sure what the plan is......and he isn't likely talking.

DP.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by CAL »

I suspect that will hurt the famous westjet T4
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by moe »

In the mean time, i’ll be busy selling my 5 sets of options and ESP @$31. Thanks for worrying abot our t4’s though.
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by Dry Guy »

moe wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 11:55 am In the mean time, i’ll be busy selling my 5 sets of options and ESP @$31. Thanks for worrying abot our t4’s though.
You should save 100% of that for retirement.
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Re: WestJet to be Acquired by Onex

Post by Jack Klumpus »

Arnie Pye wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 12:45 pmQuick - name another airline that fully owns their regional feeder. Look at nearly every airline out there and you'll find a feeder owned by someone else with a CPA.
American Airlines:

- PSA
- Piedmont
- Envoy

Delta Airlines:

- Endeavor Air

Alaska Air Group

- Horizon Air

Air France

- HOP!

Lufthansa

- Lufthansa CityLine

- Air Dolomiti

- Eurowings Europe

KLM

- CityHopper

British Airways

- BA CityFlyer

Alitalia

- Alitalia CityLiner

Is that enough for now?
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Re: WestJet to be sold in friendly deal to Onex Corp. for $5 billion

Post by cloak »

Onex has been eyeing WestJet for some time and at recent (unwarranted) suppressed share prices, it must have felt compelled to make a move. WJA shares should really be trading over 40, so even at 31, there's room for Onex to invest more into the group and unlock its true potential and value. Only then will Onex be rewarded. And the deal may not even be fully complete yet with other player(s) emerging. This is not unusual for Onex which perceives true potential and value very well to buy undervalued companies, combine them to build synergy and create something special and even more valuable (2+2=5!), e.g. chapters and indigo.

And although there are lots of speculations, it is easy to discern which are plausible. While Encore may not grow by much in comparison to other segments of the business, it is unlikely to be sold so hastily simply because its true value will not be realized just yet. In comparison for instance Swoop will likely grow rather quickly to 30 tails and perhaps beyond, because it presents the lowest risk and cost. There will also be growth in long haul program unfolding the original plan. There is also great opportunity in vacation or loyalty arm which are largely underdeveloped. This process will likely take 5 to 7 years to mature culminating in creation of a global airline. Likely at some point Delta will buy a stake, and likely an ipo in the fullness of time, leaving Onex as a smaller stakeholder perhaps.

Westjetters woke up to a surprise yesterday morning and likely good news from the market and hopefully it will serve to rally them once again to help propel their company to new heights.
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