DOH merge.

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fruitloops
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by fruitloops »

Some good ideas for merging being posted, that's refreshing to see. Need some quants to create some merging models with multiple variables and weightings, make some assumptions and run them. Then take each of variables/weightings to their extremes and find the optimal outcomes for each of the groups Then see where their lines/points intersect or near each other and have least number of pilots negatively affected..but easier said than done lol Could even create the model based on the input of each pilot and their preferences in the form of a questionnaire or importance ranking so everyone has a say. Then take the overall ratings from all pilots and then build the model from it.

% seniority helps take into consideration the distribution of pilots as there has been a few hiring bubbles that have created uneven distributions of pilots where as DOH alone wouldn't do that as well, but a combination could optimal :

Combining YOS & % Seniority Gotta be some formula that would smooth the bumps out.
For example: this is an issue someone posted > AT 25% pilot was hired in 2006 vs AC at 1997' where % doesn't work but throw in yos
for the AT pilot - You could take (1 minus 25%) seniority times YOS 13.21 years to create a factor of 9.9075
for the AC pilot (1-25%) of YOS 22.13 years = factor of 16.5975
Junior pilot .........(1-80%) of 2.53 years = 0.50600
etc.......Once u get formula tweaked u could use the resulting factors to rank the list of pilots or add yet another variable like position,pay or type to further modify the factor.

Yes, unfortunately someone in both groups will have to give and take a little in order to meet in the grey middle area somewhere. Hopefully the flat pay can be revisited and changed for the benefit of the newer hires

I personally think the number of tails won't be reduced overall and that will help keep things even for both groups for the most part if they put up some fences between each others equipment for a few years. I think AC will take advantage of the orders AT has in the pipe so that they can jump the queue after bailing on more 737max's . New order queues for Airbus and BA are like 5 to 7 years. Anyone know how AT pilot manning levels per tail compare to AC , or will that be even steven with new regs coming?
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Just another canuck
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck »

altiplano wrote: Mon May 27, 2019 8:52 pm First of all you don't own any of your airplanes.

Secondly- some of those 330s are old.

Thirdly - the 330-200s are most of your 330s and AC has never wanted 200s - even on the used/leased market in their recent shopping trips. 200s don't fit... They will be short lived if they come at all...

Fourthly - the 321s, sure, but again AC have recently been on their own 321 shopping trips... incl. New CEOs, WOW CEOs, and more.... we would have gotten them anyway and without you attached, or at least the 45 options they hold on MAXs after that washes out or the 30 options on the CS300s - and so far you've only gotten 1 of the NEOs... and a couple CEOs kicking around...

Fifthly - the 310s and 737s are gone obviously immediately, earlier than Transat's current timeline... So what are you going to fly? AC metal.

Sixthly - as history has indicated (Canadi>n), AC mostly disposed of the fleet... used some of the 767s, a few of the old 737s as Zip for a while until somehow we had to take 320 pay concessions to roll the 737 flying back into mainline... So I just don't think your fleet will outlast you here... a few 321s... that's it... and 600+ pilots.

Seventhly - you don't augment any of your flying, yet you bring a slightly higher ratio of pilots:plane than we have, even if every fin comes and flies...

Again nothing personal, you asked, and that's just how I see it unfolding. Similar growth happens either way if it can be sustained...
I have a lot of respect for you and appreciate your opinion based on logic rather than emotion. I think anyone with any common sense will agree with almost everything you are saying. I even understand your desire to not see this deal go through and you still may get your wish. I’d probably feel the same way if I were in your shoes.

I still don’t agree with the fact you believe this is going to significantly stagnate your career or anyone else’s at AC. AC didn’t knock on our door because they wanted our planes. You said so yourself. They’re quite capable of acquiring them on their own. They’re likely not particularly interested in our hotel plans or land. What they wanted is our market share, our slot times, our network and what they wanted more was for Onex or some other entity NOT to get them. So sure, let’s say the 737’s are gone... we only have 5 left come the Fall anyway. 310’s are gone obviously and maybe some of the 330’s won’t make the cut. 321’s are on the way though and they’ll be part of the plan. But whether AC uses some or all of our aircraft or acquire others elsewhere, I’m certain they don’t plan on pissing away 20% of the market share for the South and over that for Europe. I’d like to remind you we fly Europeans whereas AC and WJ mostly fly Canadians. My point is AC will grow, along with it’s fleet and I like to think they could use 600 experienced International pilots to help with the process. The pilot/market/aircraft total is all relative. 200 fins and 4000 pilots and 250 fins and 5000 pilots is the same thing.

Anyway, I wish everyone all the best. Hopefully a few years down the road we’ll all be wondering why we ever got so excited in the first place.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

Thanks, and good discussion... but...
Just another canuck wrote: I’d like to remind you we fly Europeans whereas AC and WJ mostly fly Canadians.
Not sure where you get that? Maybe Westjet does... Not many outside Canada have heard of them

And maybe we fly mostly Canadians on the Thunder Bay or Winnipeg runs... I'll give you that...

I'd like to remind you that AC operates to every continent except Antarctica. We carry around half or more of our international cabin crews as language flight attendants not to talk to Canadians. We are part of the largest airline alliance in the world, a founding member. One of our biggest growth strategies has been on leveraging sixth freedom rights through our extensive network, AC has invested much in allowing people to go straight to international gates off other international flights, or go straight to US preclearance off international flights without having to pickup luggage, etc, make a seamless fast connection and has worked. We fly Europeans to South America, South Americans to Asia, Asians to the Caribbean, Americans to Australia, in fact Americans to around the world, and we bring the world to America. On most any given flight into our hubs we will have connections going most everywhere in the world... Not to mention we carry more people to Canada than any other airline and our market share has grown and is growing on its own through these strategies.

I'd like to remind you that Transat is a charter airline without a network. The Europeans you fly are primarily French going to Montreal and maybe the Caribbean. France is the only market Transat holds a strong position in. Particularly direct from secondary airports we don't or didn't serve. But in the last 5 years AC has established in LYS, NCE, MRS, now BOD coming... we're chipping into your market share anyway. Slots? Where? With a handful of exceptions you are flying to airports we already have slots at or airports that are largely underserved and would die to get another international flight...

Anyway, sorry for the pissing match, but you're a ways off on that statement... you are right on that this is defensive against Onex, let Westjet take some more bumps figuring out the whole overseas thing, and it piles in a bunch of pilots on and delays some of management's shortage problems... particularly the forecast shortage from F&D regs, Pax bill of rights, retirements, etc... Current AC pilots lose with that though and of course it's irrelevant to the C-suite... they'll all make a ton and be gone while we are left with the seniority fallout... Hope I'm wrong.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL-280 »

It’s getting nasty already lol. I called it.

My guess, it the TS guys will be limited to rouge. AC pilots will be able to do mainline or rouge on a LOA.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

FL-280 wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 6:33 am It’s getting nasty already lol. I called it.

My guess, it the TS guys will be limited to rouge. AC pilots will be able to do mainline or rouge on a LOA.
You call this "nasty"?

Seems people are just advocating a position, explaining where everyone's coming from... I haven't seen nasty yet... I mean the deal hasn't even gone through.

When or if it does, TS pilots will be AC pilots, perhaps there will be some relatively short term restrictions on equipment bidding to ease the number of training events that will trigger... but eventually we'll all be AC pilots... at least until ACV/Transat/Rouge gets spun off or IPO'd a la aveos/chorus/aeroplan... and whoever is left without a chair at mainline will be adios to the new company or layed off...
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck »

Fine. I'll retract my statement regarding Europeans. Done. What of the 20+ % market share AC would inherit with the acquisition of Transat? That's a lot of passengers and will require a lot of aircraft to move them. Aircraft require pilots to operate them. It's all relative. And serving the same destination means you can serve it to a greater extent.

You're acting like AC would be acquiring the Transat brand yet receiving nothing for it. Which is way off. Maybe because you're mad, you're trying to convince yourself of this. Idk. But TS has been flying people around for 30 years and AC would potentially inherit their loyal customers. 20% market share is what they account for.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

Just another canuck wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 7:05 am You're acting like AC would be acquiring the Transat brand yet receiving nothing for it. Which is way off. Maybe because you're mad, you're trying to convince yourself of this. Idk. But TS has been flying people around for 30 years and AC would potentially inherit their loyal customers. 20% market share is what they account for.
20%? No, more like 5% of market share and that data is 2 years old, new data would show even less I think.

They are getting something, but I don't think they are getting much anyway... a few assets they can sell, maybe block Onex, maybe spin off ACV in the future, some benefit removing a competitor, get some pilots to address the previous two flight ops VP's inaction on hiring, they can get leases on their own, didn't need Transat for more planes.

Plus they further divide a divided group again just as we come into negotiations and drag NA in pay levels and it's starting to boil over on the line... they probably project with more division, they will save the buying price right there come contract time.

Whatever they are getting it's a negative for AC pilots.

I'm not mad, just the way I see it.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by BTD »

altiplano wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 9:22 am
Just another canuck wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 7:05 am You're acting like AC would be acquiring the Transat brand yet receiving nothing for it. Which is way off. Maybe because you're mad, you're trying to convince yourself of this. Idk. But TS has been flying people around for 30 years and AC would potentially inherit their loyal customers. 20% market share is what they account for.
20%? No, more like 5% of market share and that data is 2 years old, new data would show even less I think.

They are getting something, but I don't think they are getting much anyway... a few assets they can sell, maybe block Onex, maybe spin off ACV in the future, some benefit removing a competitor, get some pilots to address the previous two flight ops VP's inaction on hiring, they can get leases on their own, didn't need Transat for more planes.

Plus they further divide a divided group again just as we come into negotiations and drag NA in pay levels and it's starting to boil over on the line... they probably project with more division, they will save the buying price right there come contract time.

Whatever they are getting it's a negative for AC pilots.

I'm not mad, just the way I see it.
I think most of your points are valid. Although I may not be quite as cynical about it. I still believe this will probably be a negative for us AC pilots.

I think the 20% market share is based on the North Atlantic only. I believe that number is mostly accurate, but obviously doesn't account for the entire scope of AC's vs Transat's operation.

I am still not sure about dumping so much of Transat's fleet in the short term. Based on their quarterly results it looks like load factors are steady and perhaps up over the last number of reports. I don't see AC giving that market up so those passengers can go seek out other carriers, European etc.

We simply don't have the capacity right now to absorb all those passengers into our operation.
According to company filings, Air Transat takes up about 20 per cent of the market for flights between Canada and Europe, and about 22 per cent of travel between Canada and sun destinations such as Mexico, Jamaica, the Caribbean and Central America.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... -1.5138180
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Victory »

All the Transat pilots in the thread that stated they do not want to join AC I urge you to write to your MP's and urge them that this deal would be bad for Canadian consumers. I know I will be. Some ideas for talking points:

-In his 2016 report on transportation in Canada, David Emerson, a former federal cabinet minister, said Canadians were paying "relatively high airfares, in part due to the lack of competition on many routes."

-Ross Aimer, a pilot and chief executive officer of Aero Consulting Experts, predicted Air Canada's ticket prices to some destinations could increase by 10 to 15 per cent if the merger proceeds.

-Someone needs to defend the interests of Canadian consumers. That someone is the Competition Bureau and it must be ready to conduct a comprehensive and rigorous review of whatever proposal Air Canada and Air Transat eventually make.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by laserstrike »

Victory wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 1:01 pm All the Transat pilots in the thread that stated they do not want to join AC I urge you to write to your MP's and urge them that this deal would be bad for Canadian consumers. I know I will be. Some ideas for talking points:

-In his 2016 report on transportation in Canada, David Emerson, a former federal cabinet minister, said Canadians were paying "relatively high airfares, in part due to the lack of competition on many routes."

-Ross Aimer, a pilot and chief executive officer of Aero Consulting Experts, predicted Air Canada's ticket prices to some destinations could increase by 10 to 15 per cent if the merger proceeds.

-Someone needs to defend the interests of Canadian consumers. That someone is the Competition Bureau and it must be ready to conduct a comprehensive and rigorous review of whatever proposal Air Canada and Air Transat eventually make.
If that happens what's stopping AC and AT having some sweetheart backroom deal where AT shuts the company down and sells off assets to AC? Planes and slots?

That's really all they want anyways.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by photofly »

laserstrike wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 1:14 pm If that happens what's stopping AC and AT having some sweetheart backroom deal where AT shuts the company down and sells off assets to AC? Planes and slots?
The AT shareholders.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

photofly wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 5:39 pm
laserstrike wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 1:14 pm If that happens what's stopping AC and AT having some sweetheart backroom deal where AT shuts the company down and sells off assets to AC? Planes and slots?
The AT shareholders.
Labor laws.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by '97 Tercel »

FL-280 wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 6:33 am It’s getting nasty already lol. I called it.

My guess, it the TS guys will be limited to rouge. AC pilots will be able to do mainline or rouge on a LOA.
Actually, all things considered, this thread has been quite civil and intelligent.

There are much nastier threads on this site over more ridiculously asinine topics than this//
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by tintin42 »

I just have a question for AC pilots. Just for fun let’s pretend that twe had a open market with the US like the EU have and American airlines bought AC. They have more than 4 times the amount of pilots that AC have, more planes and better pay. My question is what do you think would be a fair way to merge the two list? AC pilots going

BOTL
Since they are being bought and will get a pay raise, AC pilot should go BOTL otherwise it’s going to screw up the progression of AA pilots.

DOH
I know that AC doesn’t have a seniority based on date of hire, but maybe they could find a equivalent ( those who postponed their hiring for 1 or 2 years could get the equivalent of the earlier date and the ex Canadian could get a fictional date to match their seniority). But the merger should be by DOH because that is the best way to have a seniority relative to your experience.

Ratio
AC should keep their % of seniority because you don’t want your pilot at 5% of the seniority list drop to 15-20% of the list. That would be the way to do it so no one is more junior or more senior than the where before.

or something else?

I know that because of the rules it wouldn’t be possible and since it’s another country it would cause some differences, but I would like you to pretend like another airline munch bigger than yours would buy AC. What would you consider fair?
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by laserstrike »

tintin42 wrote: Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 am I just have a question for AC pilots. Just for fun let’s pretend that twe had a open market with the US like the EU have and American airlines bought AC. They have more than 4 times the amount of pilots that AC have, more planes and better pay. My question is what do you think would be a fair way to merge the two list? AC pilots going

BOTL
Since they are being bought and will get a pay raise, AC pilot should go BOTL otherwise it’s going to screw up the progression of AA pilots.

DOH
I know that AC doesn’t have a seniority based on date of hire, but maybe they could find a equivalent ( those who postponed their hiring for 1 or 2 years could get the equivalent of the earlier date and the ex Canadian could get a fictional date to match their seniority). But the merger should be by DOH because that is the best way to have a seniority relative to your experience.

Ratio
AC should keep their % of seniority because you don’t want your pilot at 5% of the seniority list drop to 15-20% of the list. That would be the way to do it so no one is more junior or more senior than the where before.

or something else?

I know that because of the rules it wouldn’t be possible and since it’s another country it would cause some differences, but I would like you to pretend like another airline munch bigger than yours would buy AC. What would you consider fair?
Well, American Airlines is a national scheduled carrier.

Air Transat is not.

Should I spell it out?
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck »

laserstrike wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 1:14 pm
Victory wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 1:01 pm All the Transat pilots in the thread that stated they do not want to join AC I urge you to write to your MP's and urge them that this deal would be bad for Canadian consumers. I know I will be. Some ideas for talking points:

-In his 2016 report on transportation in Canada, David Emerson, a former federal cabinet minister, said Canadians were paying "relatively high airfares, in part due to the lack of competition on many routes."

-Ross Aimer, a pilot and chief executive officer of Aero Consulting Experts, predicted Air Canada's ticket prices to some destinations could increase by 10 to 15 per cent if the merger proceeds.

-Someone needs to defend the interests of Canadian consumers. That someone is the Competition Bureau and it must be ready to conduct a comprehensive and rigorous review of whatever proposal Air Canada and Air Transat eventually make.
If that happens what's stopping AC and AT having some sweetheart backroom deal where AT shuts the company down and sells off assets to AC? Planes and slots?

That's really all they want anyways.
You're right. AC only wants to oust the competition through this purchase and take our few assets as an added benefit. They don't need 600 low class, inexperienced TS drivers. They have super pilots like laserstrike and Victory. The already existing problem of hiring highly qualified candidates to fill positions will be widened by adding TS planes but will easily be filled by stripping 600 guys and gals from Jazz and SR. After all, AC did tell them that was the route to golden goose that is AC. They should be rewarded. If they can't hire fast enough, AC should just park planes and/or give up market share before ever considering putting those talentless TS pilots in the seat of anything painted red. They're clearly not worthy.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

laserstrike wrote: Wed May 29, 2019 8:57 am
tintin42 wrote: Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 am I just have a question for AC pilots. Just for fun let’s pretend that twe had a open market with the US like the EU have and American airlines bought AC. They have more than 4 times the amount of pilots that AC have, more planes and better pay. My question is what do you think would be a fair way to merge the two list? AC pilots going

BOTL
Since they are being bought and will get a pay raise, AC pilot should go BOTL otherwise it’s going to screw up the progression of AA pilots.

DOH
I know that AC doesn’t have a seniority based on date of hire, but maybe they could find a equivalent ( those who postponed their hiring for 1 or 2 years could get the equivalent of the earlier date and the ex Canadian could get a fictional date to match their seniority). But the merger should be by DOH because that is the best way to have a seniority relative to your experience.

Ratio
AC should keep their % of seniority because you don’t want your pilot at 5% of the seniority list drop to 15-20% of the list. That would be the way to do it so no one is more junior or more senior than the where before.

or something else?

I know that because of the rules it wouldn’t be possible and since it’s another country it would cause some differences, but I would like you to pretend like another airline munch bigger than yours would buy AC. What would you consider fair?
Well, American Airlines is a national scheduled carrier.

Air Transat is not.

Should I spell it out?
Laserstrike,

You blew off his question with a remark that Transat pilots are not our equals, or not our peers. That is not true nor will it fly with an arbitrator. Not even a chance. All the arbitrator will know is we both take funny looking winged things from A to B. Trying to assert superiority over another person who flys funny looking winged things is likely to actually backfire.

I think the question is a good one. Maybe use United since we are so tied together already.

How do we merge?

What would you consider fair?
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

tintin42 wrote: Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 am
DOH
I know that AC doesn’t have a seniority based on date of hire, but maybe they could find a equivalent ( those who postponed their hiring for 1 or 2 years could get the equivalent of the earlier date and the ex Canadian could get a fictional date to match their seniority). But the merger should be by DOH because that is the best way to have a seniority relative to your experience.
As an mid-seniority AC pilot, I like this option best. As you pointed out, even though we don’t have a DOH list, we could easily make an artificial one. This option allows a fair and equal distribution of AT pilots without massive windfall gains (like the #1 AT pilot going to top spot on the 777.)

A straight ratio would be extremely detrimental to the majority of AC pilots and provide massive windfall gains to many AT pilots. Personally I would drop almost 150 numbers between a DOH and a ratio merge.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

tintin42 wrote: Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 am
DOH
I know that AC doesn’t have a seniority based on date of hire, but maybe they could find a equivalent ( those who postponed their hiring for 1 or 2 years could get the equivalent of the earlier date and the ex Canadian could get a fictional date to match their seniority). But the merger should be by DOH because that is the best way to have a seniority relative to your experience.
As a mid-seniority AC pilot, I like this option best. As you pointed out, even though we don’t have a DOH list, we could easily make an artificial one. This option allows a fair and equal distribution of AT pilots without massive windfall gains (like the #1 AT pilot going to top spot on the 777.)

A straight ratio would be extremely detrimental to the majority of AC pilots and provide massive windfall gains to many AT pilots. Personally I would drop almost 150 numbers between a DOH and a ratio merge.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by BenniFlyer »

I would personally be happy with DOH at 50% (10 turns to 5 years, 4 to 2 years). Yes, you could argue that AC and United or AA are national carriers and we should this come over straight DOH or ratio, but their salary, benefits and opportunities are far superior. This would be enough to make me happy, especially if AC was at a point of being bought out and not surviving on its own.

You could also argue that in this scenario of a “free market” AC would have had to raise their pay to compete with these companies...so maybe it wouldn’t be going to better conditions as is he case with AT to AC.

I don’t believe in BOTL, but an integration with even weighting for your DOH or seniority would really disappoint me...I’m prepared to be disappointed at this point. I hope I’m wrong in that regard.

And I don’t mean to disrespect an AT pilots and their professionalism/experience.
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