Grab a seat. The music is stopping

[altiplano]

When I was doing my PPL, back in the early 90s, a couple of my instructors were on layoff from Air Canada; also, IIRC, Air Canada was laying off people in YWG with 10 years of seniority...never underestimate the power of the dark side.

Maybe guys with 10 years were taking LOAs? Someone can maybe name the exact number, but the largest layoff in AC history was barely a couple hundred or so... I don't think that would get to 10 year guys.

I don't think there will be layoffs in all this. They are short. They are getting shorter. Maybe a slow down of hiring.

If people stop flying that's one thing. But stock prices are speculative and reactive right now, they don't drive the operations.

[North Shore]

What the hell does Jason Kenney have to do with this?


Alti: I'll trust your history rather than mine - it may well be that they took LOAs...

[mixturerich]

There’s a lot of conflicting information out there, but what I’ve read is that it is far more contagious than the flu, and some people are saying it’s more fatal. I’ve also read that air travel is already in quite a downward trend. I mean, that’s pretty obvious anyways when all the airlines are suspending their flights to China.

It’s just a matter of how intensely it spreads and if it peters out or not. Maybe Trump is right and the warmer weather will slow it significantly (f*ck that guy regardless).

[47north]

Slowdown affecting United Pilots

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/coronav ... -cuts.html

[Inverted2]

It seems like everybody forgot what SARS looked like and how it affected the industry.

This has the potential to be larger.

I don’t think half the pilots on the forum are old enough to remember SARS. My FO asked me where I was on 9/11 and I asked him and he said he was in junior kindergarten.

[rudder]

Bookings - bookings - bookings.

This isn’t about the stock market or even government edicts. That is the Trump measure of impact.

This is about how the public responds and if they choose to modify their behaviour by delaying or avoiding air travel.

The question on the next analyst call is - what do forward bookings look like?

[digits_]

Bookings - bookings - bookings.

This isn’t about the stock market or even government edicts. That is the Trump measure of impact.

This is about how the public responds and if they choose to modify their behaviour by delaying or avoiding air travel.

The question on the next analyst call is - what do forward bookings look like?

It is partially controlled by the governments. If a government decides to quarantain a couple of hotels, the public might be more reluctant to visit those countries. I know I would. Not because I am afraid of the virus, but because I don't want to be inconvenienced by the government's reactions to said virus.

[derateNO]

Honestly I feel like this virus is overblown.

It's mortality rate is extremely low compared to SARS or H1N1. Mind you there are a lot of people being infected, but many are fine after a few weeks. It's just like a really bad flu. People with compromised immune systems are the ones hit the hardest but how is that any different than the normal flu?

So far for the 2019/2020 flu season over 16,000 people have died in the USA and over 250,000 infected. But no one really talks about that.

[ogc]

Saw this article on Twitter provides some context of how bad one of these could get. A quick synopsis of the 1918 "spanish" flu

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ ... 180965222/

[alkaseltzer]

The '03 SARs outbreak was contained by June, I expect we'll see similar timelines here.

The coronavirus is completely different virus. It's structure is different. The replication is different. Incubation period is not fully established. WHO can't tell their head from their a$$ and half of them are undecided if its going to be a pandemic?!

Betting 2022.

[derateNO]

And in the mean time as the government keeps scratching their heads, we allow many Chinese airlines to continue to fly to Canada.

[Old fella]

Bookings - bookings - bookings.

This isn’t about the stock market or even government edicts. That is the Trump measure of impact.

This is about how the public responds and if they choose to modify their behaviour by delaying or avoiding air travel.

The question on the next analyst call is - what do forward bookings look like?

I am sure there is an element of truth in your statement(bookings). However things will settle out in due course(always did) aka SARS, West Nile and the like and travel will rebound( that is, if there will be a mass exodus from travelling to begin with). Sure, there will be temporary adjustments in the very short term but will mellow out sooner than later I am willing to surmise.

Cheers

[altiplano]

The '03 SARs outbreak was contained by June, I expect we'll see similar timelines here.

The coronavirus is completely different virus. It's structure is different. The replication is different. Incubation period is not fully established. WHO can't tell their head from their a$$ and half of them are undecided if its going to be a pandemic?!

Betting 2022.

SARs was a Corina type virus also. But we'll see... I'm not an epidemiological expert.

[C-GGGQ]

Saw this article on Twitter provides some context of how bad one of these could get. A quick synopsis of the 1918 "spanish" flu

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ ... 180965222/

except the Spanish flu was literally H1n1 or Swine flu before we started calling it that. In India in 2017 (maybe 2015) almost 40,000 died of H1n1. It's a recurring seasonal flu. This is much less potent.

[rxl]

When I was doing my PPL, back in the early 90s, a couple of my instructors were on layoff from Air Canada; also, IIRC, Air Canada was laying off people in YWG with 10 years of seniority...never underestimate the power of the dark side.

Maybe guys with 10 years were taking LOAs? Someone can maybe name the exact number, but the largest layoff in AC history was barely a couple hundred or so... I don't think that would get to 10 year guys.

I don't think there will be layoffs in all this. They are short. They are getting shorter. Maybe a slow down of hiring.

If people stop flying that's one thing. But stock prices are speculative and reactive right now, they don't drive the operations.

Air Canada laid off 243 pilots 1990 into 1993. The last pilot to NOT be laid off at the time had a date of hire in 1989.
I'm guessing that 243 would be close to 10 to 15% of the seniority list at the time??
The early 90's layoff had nothing to do with a potential global pandemic or some other crisis like 911 and was related to economic issues and structural changes like the removal of 3 seat airplanes (last 727 was retired in 1992) from the fleet and the transfer of short haul flying to the regional carriers.
If there are any lay offs due to COVID-19, I suspect they will be relatively short.

[Sharklasers]

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,

[derateNO]

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,

Now there is a creative solution to a problem.

Ironically the ESP at Jazz was to try to get all the expensive Sr pilots to retire yet mainline AC seems to have a hard on to keep them here.

[duro195]

I wouldn't be overly worried with layoffs. Obviously it might change if this thing drags on but nobody can predict that (much like market trends....there'll good buying opportunities when this shitstorm landslide is over, but I digress).

For the time being, the Max situation might end up being a good thing as Big Red doesn't have extra capacity they need to support. They're even deploying WB on NA routes because the 320s can't keep up. As the year passes, some of the extended leases for NBs will be over so they'll have the option to reduce capacity without penalties. If anything it'll give NB guys a bit of time to breathe without being blocked as high as the last year. On the pilot's side they have so many open positions and so many retirements coming up (good thing the age was pushed back to 65) that they'll likely be able to weather the storm without resorting to layoffs.

Keep Calm and Carry On......and tell everyone you know to keep traveling!

[Squid]

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,

Problem is if you don’t have people in the planes it’s not all about the pilots. It’s also about parking some very very expensive metal. There will be casualties in the industry if this takes off in North America. Think of all the the hot spots now and look at the metal we fly there. It ain’t over and this might be the correction Canada will see. I’ll bet the first q results are gonna be ugly.

[vermont]

This all sounds like a great time to give up on training for anyone who hasn't sunk a load of money in

[Mr. North]

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,

Thread hijack alert! This "early retirement penalty" is misleading. There is nothing stopping people from retiring early and collecting a pension that reflects what they contributed. Why should someone retiring early (and skipping out on years of pension contributions) be entitled to a full pension?

[altiplano]

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,

Thread hijack alert! This "early retirement penalty" is misleading. There is nothing stopping people from retiring early and collecting a pension that reflects what they contributed. Why should someone retiring early (and skipping out on years of pension contributions) be entitled to a full pension?

I don't think you understand how the pension works or what a "full pension" is. I don't think you understand the scenarios the earlier poster is referring to. This isn't about 50 year olds retiring early...

Nobody gets more pension than they pay into in YOS, and based on their best 5, but penalties for leaving before your *NEW* "normal age of retirement" apply and are unreasonably harsh in sone scenarios.

Some people can go at 60, those that can't have their normal retirement age set at 65.

2 examples. Both have the same earnings in their "best 5."

Pilot 1 worked most of his career as an FO and upgraded for his last 5.
Pilot 2 spent most of his career as a Captain and paid more money into the pension earlier and in total than Pilot 1.
Both joined the airline on the premise of retiring at age 60.

Pilot 1 turns 60 and retires with 25 years of pensionable service. He is entitled to an unreduced pension.

Pilot 2 turns 60 and retires with 24 years 11 months of pensionable service. He takes an actuarial reduction from his "normal retirement age" of 65. The reduction is 6% per year, or 30%.

So both retiring at the same age, the age they joined the airline and were told "this is when you'll retire", with one month difference in service, and the guy (Pilot 2) that put more money into his pension his whole career will leave with not only the 1 month less service credit into his pension formula (fair), but also a 30% reduction on that number because he's before the "normal retirement age".

Lots of guys that won't have 25 years at age 60 and want to go at the age they were promised, with the pension they have paid for and earned and not have to hold on until 65.

[Squid]

And now United
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nypost.com/ ... risis/amp/

[Eric Janson]

I'm writing this from Dubai.

Numerous events cancelled/postponed and the shopping Malls are a lot emptier.

Emirates has just asked staff to take paid/unpaid leave on a voluntary basis. Most flights to/from Iran cancelled.

Global travel is slowing. N America will be next.

This a multi-year Black Swan event imho.

I do wish people would do some research - this virus is nothing like the Flu.

[GhostRider6]

As in this virus is not as bad as the flu?

There has been far more deaths from the flu this year than the coronavirus since it surfaced.

How is this a multi year black swan event? This virus has been recently discovered...Are you inferring it’s been around longer than portrayed?

There is a market correction occurring .. but things are already on the upswing ..( for now at least)

China is asking its citizens to go back to work...