Corona Virus

[Trematode]

Regarding the 3.4% figure I think you have to keep it mind the amount of testing actually being conducted (or lack thereof) will impact those numbers.

[complexintentions]

The problem with the numbers isn't so much their accuracy, it's their interpretation at what is still the early stages of an outbreak. Accurately determining the correct values for numerator and denominator is extremely difficult until after the outbreak passes, unfortunately. This has been well-documented from past outbreaks that have vastly overstated the mortality rates initially.

A good analysis of the issue, and a reasonable theory as to the actual CFR (Case Fatality Rate, ie "kill rate") based on the Diamond Princess quarantine - as close to a perfectly controlled environment as one could hope for:

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

Don’t hoard masks and food. Figure out how to help seniors and the immunosuppressed stay healthy.

This still largely comes down to hygiene and isolation. But in particular, we need to focus on the right people and the right places. Nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes. We need to up the hygienic and isolation ante primarily around the subset of people who can’t simply contract SARS-CoV-2 and ride it out the way healthy people should be able to.

[av8ts]

I hear the Wuhan area has some great discounts

I’ve been to China. No hurry to go back. However I could live in Europe

[mixturerich]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/


Compared to SARS...

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.


Hold on to your hats, boys.

Edit: Here’s the worst case model if you’re morbidly curious...

“In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.”

[rxl]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/


Compared to SARS...

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.


Hold on to your hats, boys.

Edit: Here’s the worst case model if you’re morbidly curious...

“In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.”

Meanwhile I feel so incredibly relieved after hearing the comments of the “Stable Genius” on the crisis at CDC yesterday -

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) Tweeted:
Here's Trump rambling at length about how smart he is and how well he understands public health https://t.co/1Co6MaRkzl
Aaron Rupar on Twitter

[Jean-Pierre]

No one care about your Trump bashing. Keep it to your other social media and let us talk about the topic.

[mixturerich]

No one care about your Trump bashing. Keep it to your other social media and let us talk about the topic.

I disagree, I think this is the perfect time for Trump bashing given the fact that he’s botched the entire American response to the virus, continues to point fingers, and talk out of his a$$. He’s the same guy that insisted that the hurricane would hit Alabama.

Edit: he also recently said this...

“The doctors gasp and ask me 'How do you know so much about this?' Maybe I have a natural ability, I don't know."

[C-GGGQ]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/


Compared to SARS...

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.


Hold on to your hats, boys.

Edit: Here’s the worst case model if you’re morbidly curious...

“In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.”

The Spanish flu was literally the Virus H1N1 or Swine flu as its now commonly called. Outbreaks are still happening every year. In 2015 in india alone 31000 contracted it at 2000 died. We never even had it reported over here

[av8ts]

No one care about your Trump bashing. Keep it to your other social media and let us talk about the topic.

I disagree, I think this is the perfect time for Trump bashing given the fact that he’s botched the entire American response to the virus, continues to point fingers, and talk out of his a$$. He’s the same guy that insisted that the hurricane would hit Alabama.

Edit: he also recently said this...

“The doctors gasp and ask me 'How do you know so much about this?' Maybe I have a natural ability, I don't know."

I think anytime is a good time for trump bashing

[rxl]

No one care about your Trump bashing. Keep it to your other social media and let us talk about the topic.

True, no one should really care about what I have to say about anything. What people should care about is the potentially dangerous rhetoric that Mr. Trump spews on a daily basis. These videos are a perfect example of this BS that is EXACTLY on thread topic.
Mr. Trump has, in the past, referred to himself as a “very stable genius” if that’s what you are referring to as Trump bashing. These are his words not mine.


Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
....to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!

125K
7:30 AM - Jan 6, 2018

[Heliian]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/

It is a research paper put together by what I would assume are 2 students. There has been no vetting.

It's an interesting look at what ifs on a Macroeconomic scale but should not be taken as a model of disease propagation or real world scenarios.

There is hope that vaccines will be ready by summer, that will surely put a damper on this panic party.

The real viral disease here is misinformation and fear mongering. The key is to remain calm during times of emergency.

[mixturerich]

It is a research paper put together by what I would assume are 2 students. There has been no vetting.

Actually it was done by a highly esteemed professor and and a PhD student using mathematical prediction models and historical references. Hopefully they’re wrong.

As far as the media thing goes, I actually don’t think it’s bad if it’s overblown, because at least people are finally washing their damn hands, which is the best way to stop the virus. Better to over-prepare than under-prepare.

[derateNO]

For the first time in maybe a decade I've noticed everyone finally washing their hands after using the public bathroom.

[Heliian]

It is a research paper put together by what I would assume are 2 students. There has been no vetting.

Actually it was done by a highly esteemed professor and and a PhD student using mathematical prediction models and historical references. Hopefully they’re wrong.

As far as the media thing goes, I actually don’t think it’s bad if it’s overblown, because at least people are finally washing their damn hands, which is the best way to stop the virus. Better to over-prepare than under-prepare.

I falsely assumed that his name would be preceded by prof. Thank you for your thoroughness.

[mixturerich]

For the first time in maybe a decade I've noticed everyone finally washing their hands after using the public bathroom.

If there’s one positive result of the media “scare” this is it. I feel like if I walk out of the bathroom without washing my hands I’ll get publicly shamed or beat down.

[daedalusx]

For the first time in maybe a decade I've noticed everyone finally washing their hands after using the public bathroom.

If there’s one positive result of the media “scare” this is it. I feel like if I walk out of the bathroom without washing my hands I’ll get publicly shamed or beat down.

One could argue that washing your hands in a public bathroom could increase the risk of catching something, especially if you dry them with the Dyson blowers.

In one study, microbiologists compared jet air dryers to warm air dryers and paper towels. What they found was disturbing:

The jet air dryer dispersed 20 times more virus than the warm air dryer and over 190 times more than paper towels, at six different heights.
The impact of the virus was greatest at 2 ½ feet to 4.1 feet — which is about face-level for a small child.
The jet air dryer sent out 20 times more virus than the warm air dryer and over 190 times more virus han paper towels, at nine different distances.

So much for being green

[mixturerich]

At least they dry your hands quickly rather than those Blast ones in Montreal that just make your f*cking ears ring more than anything else.

[yhz41]

At least they dry your hands quickly rather than those Blast ones in Montreal that just make your f*cking ears ring more than anything else.

Absolutely hate the washrooms in Montreal for this reason. How hard is it to replace those useless things.

[Eric Janson]

A large part of N Italy has just been placed on lockdown.

There are projections that hospitals in the US will be full by May.

The Medical system being overwhelmed will be the next stage in the Pandemic.

This means you will not be able to get treatment if anything happens to you. Not that you'd want to go to a location full of infectious people in the first place.

Increasing number of Airlines making huge cuts/staff reduction/salary reductions/flight reductions/delivery deferrals.

[derateNO]

So short Europe and long USA medical ETFs? Got it.