AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

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sanjet
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by sanjet »

This will be a devastating summer regardless of merger happening or not, not going to be our call. Travel will be slashed this summer even the the virus under control.

We need to stay united as pilots, there will be demand for cost cuts and of course we will be the first to be asked as "leaders" to take the hit.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by altiplano »

GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 am
altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 am
GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:04 am

What about AC stock? Didn’t it plummet even more percentage wise than TRZ?

For what it’s worth, the stock price doesn’t dictate the price of the transaction. Because unlike most pilots, businessmen don’t process acquisitions with the same mindset alike pilots who think short term, financially speaking. This AC trz acquisition is a long term game. The loss in slots alone and a brand that will fix your broken reputation is worth enough to still go through with it. Wether the pilots are deemed a surplus (which I think is what you’re hoping) is however a different story. And that, is to be determined.

WJ traded at 17 before it was announced to be purchased at 31. Trz was trading at dollar values way below today when it announced 13 per share from AC.

It’s not as simple as what you see in front of you.
Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.
Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence 8)
I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

WJ200 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:17 am I'd be extremely surprised if there wasn't a Force Majeure clause in the agreement between Air Canada and Air Transat. I think the market is thinking the same thing right now.
There is a section that describes Material Adverse Effect. Some analysts and lawyers are saying it is not a way out if AC is looking for one.
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TSAM
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TSAM »

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Last edited by TSAM on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
chaster
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by chaster »

Quick question altiplano? As of today Transat has cash on hand and Equivalents of $682 Million dollars.Why don't you enlighten us all on how much the Transaction is worth?HINT Its not much more!! Maybe you might wish to purchase some AT ;)
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derateNO
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by derateNO »

There will be a large cost though to the company to train everyone, pay them, negotiate new fleet numbers etc. Walking away might be the easiest option at this point.
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:29 am
FL320 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:18 pm It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?
You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?
I will keep my money to volonteer for unpaid leave if this is offered by Transat and leave my seat to a more junior colleague who has a family to feed (I am far from financial needs)

I wish you will do the same, you already spent a year and thousands of unuseful posts on avcanada while fully paid by AC thanks the Max issue. It’s time to pay back to your colleagues your unproductivity.
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Dry Guy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Dry Guy »

TSAM wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:46 pm And to derateno, yeah we TS pilots like what we have, there's a reason why the reputation of a happier place is here and not at AC. The more I hear of the selfish entitlement from and handful of AC pilots, the more I look forward to this deal as the salty tears will be delicious.
Wew, aren't you tempting karma a bit too much?
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GATRKGA
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by GATRKGA »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 am
altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 am

Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.
Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence 8)
I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?
I don't have to take a shot at your intelligence, you do it yourself with stupid rhetorical questions like the last one.

Do you really need an explanation of why a deal pending 18/share is trading lower today? The entire market is down. How was the market doing when the WJ stock remained at 30.98 leading up to the purchase? It was riding the last of what was one of the longest bull periods of history.

The TRZ stock is down for the exact same reason your beloved maple leaf stock is down more than 50%. Hows that ESOP working out for you? Hopefully, you're intelligent enough to be looking for as many buy opportunities as possible in the coming weeks.

Besides, the purchase of transat has little to do with its value on the public market. As someone that likes to post fancy yahoo finance graphs, you should know the first rule in trading stock. People are cynical, and for the same reason, market direction is the same. It's why a stock can crash even though it posts great news.

The purchase is one of political, longevity, branding, and the value of the company in liquid cash. AC is already getting the company for a slice. Do you really think AC would walk away from a company with nearly 600 million in cash just sitting in the bank? Do you know how much ONE slot at Gatwick costs alone? How about AMS? How about YYZ? Start adding TS slots up across their network and it becomes evident very quickly how much of a slice this is for AC to buy. Yes, even during a recession when you and I, maybe seeking EI.

With your logic, AC shouldn't have even approached TRZ for a purchase, their stock was what, 5 bucks when this happened?

This whole tone of "good luck" and "they can stay where they are" that you guys toss around makes us look like such a petty and unprofessional group. You realize that peasants grasp at straws, while kings celebrate each other's victories right? If as AC pilots, we're such noble superiors, why can't we act like it? No doubt the majority of TS guys puke at the thought of sharing a cockpit with the likes of you. Unlike you, TRZ guys actually have a right to be upset about leaving their workplace.

As the poster who said we should stand united, I would love to put our differences aside. Will the likes of FL280 and Alti extend the same olive branch?
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LittleNelly
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by LittleNelly »

GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:42 pm
altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:54 am
GATRKGA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 am

Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence 8)
I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?
I don't have to take a shot at your intelligence, you do it yourself with stupid rhetorical questions like the last one.

Do you really need an explanation of why a deal pending 18/share is trading lower today? The entire market is down. How was the market doing when the WJ stock remained at 30.98 leading up to the purchase? It was riding the last of what was one of the longest bull periods of history.

The TRZ stock is down for the exact same reason your beloved maple leaf stock is down more than 50%. Hows that ESOP working out for you? Hopefully, you're intelligent enough to be looking for as many buy opportunities as possible in the coming weeks.

Besides, the purchase of transat has little to do with its value on the public market. As someone that likes to post fancy yahoo finance graphs, you should know the first rule in trading stock. People are cynical, and for the same reason, market direction is the same. It's why a stock can crash even though it posts great news.

The purchase is one of political, longevity, branding, and the value of the company in liquid cash. AC is already getting the company for a slice. Do you really think AC would walk away from a company with nearly 600 million in cash just sitting in the bank? Do you know how much ONE slot at Gatwick costs alone? How about AMS? How about YYZ? Start adding TS slots up across their network and it becomes evident very quickly how much of a slice this is for AC to buy. Yes, even during a recession when you and I, maybe seeking EI.

With your logic, AC shouldn't have even approached TRZ for a purchase, their stock was what, 5 bucks when this happened?

This whole tone of "good luck" and "they can stay where they are" that you guys toss around makes us look like such a petty and unprofessional group. You realize that peasants grasp at straws, while kings celebrate each other's victories right? If as AC pilots, we're such noble superiors, why can't we act like it? No doubt the majority of TS guys puke at the thought of sharing a cockpit with the likes of you. Unlike you, TRZ guys actually have a right to be upset about leaving their workplace.

As the poster who said we should stand united, I would love to put our differences aside. Will the likes of FL280 and Alti extend the same olive branch?

The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by altiplano »

LittleNelly wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.
^ ^ ^ That ^ ^ ^

LittleNelly understands.

You guys take it all so personally - but it's simply an interpretation of what it all means.

Fact is that you are behaving unprofessional with your responses to my reasoned posts and your desire for the deal to go through is belied in your replies because it's a great deal for you despite what many of you write... if it goes through and you're happy - good for you, this isn't about me vs you so get some class.

If/When the day comes and the deal is done, absolute we are in it together and I will happily work along side and go to the line for whoever is here - it's not in my control who is here. I'm only writing and trying to have a professional discussion of what's happening in the market in our industry.
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iflyroads
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by iflyroads »

Transat deal EXPECTED to go through as negotiated.


.....but I like many of you aren't given the full story, as we know CR has countless aces up his sleeve.
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Victory
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Victory »

Expected to go through according to the CEO of Transat. Who knows if doesn't, in the current market, his company's stock will literally go to zero.
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derateNO
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by derateNO »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:37 pm
LittleNelly wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.
^ ^ ^ That ^ ^ ^

LittleNelly understands.

You guys take it all so personally - but it's simply an interpretation of what it all means.

Fact is that you are behaving unprofessional with your responses to my reasoned posts and your desire for the deal to go through is belied in your replies because it's a great deal for you despite what many of you write... if it goes through and you're happy - good for you, this isn't about me vs you so get some class.

If/When the day comes and the deal is done, absolute we are in it together and I will happily work along side and go to the line for whoever is here - it's not in my control who is here. I'm only writing and trying to have a professional discussion of what's happening in the market in our industry.
I'm with you.

If it doesn't go though I'll be pleased. But if it does, I'll welcome all the AT pilots in with open arms.

You can hope something doesn't happen but still not be a dick if it does. It's like people don't understand that.

The way I look at it right now, AT stock is inflated and without this deal they would be in a lot worse of a position.
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montado
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by montado »

How will Transat stock go to zero? You mean that if air Canada doesn’t buy Transat, Transat is instantly going bankrupt and liquidation? If that’s the case then Transat is not worth anything, so why would AC buy them.

Time to sell those Transat shares! Apparently they are worth nothing!/s
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derateNO
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by derateNO »

Didn't say zero mate.
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GATRKGA
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by GATRKGA »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:37 pm
LittleNelly wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.
If/When the day comes and the deal is done, absolute we are in it together and I will happily work along side and go to the line for whoever is here - it's not in my control who is here. I'm only writing and trying to have a professional discussion of what's happening in the market in our industry.
No, Nelly doesn't unfortunately get it either. Just because the consumer loses faith in the acquisition going through, doesn't mean that the deal between TS and AC is also going to follow suit.

You're placing way too high a bet on the feelings of the market. That's because it's exactly that, a feeling. CR isn't acquiring TS based on feelings. He's going after them strategically for plans that go way further than your retirement altiplano.

The agreement is clearly written, and COVID19 won't be the reason AC pulls out. If you do a bit of digging in your same yahoo finance app, you'll come across an article where this exact sentiment has already been confirmed by the TS CEO less than 12 hours ago.
Still, Eustache said the stock market collapse will not effect the Air Canada deal, which was overwhelmingly approved by Transat’s shareholders last summer.

“The condition of the market has nothing to do with (the deal.) Even the pandemic right now, it’s outside of the deal with Air Canada,” Eustache said.

“There’s nothing material happening right now that can change the deal or the price of the deal. The deal is there, we will be there in the end.”
If more of us stopped behaving with such reduced fortitude, perhaps we wouldn't be taken for a laughing stock at every contract opener. The same short-sighted perspective that you've applied towards your intelligent interpretation of this AC/TS acquisition is exactly what made you the right fit at AC; right up the alley with your 2 % raises until 2024 for a short-sighted 10k signing bonus. Perhaps market conditions infringed on your feelings to appreciate the TA in 2014, much like it's provoking your false sense of hope that CR backs out in this pandemic start to 2020.

Your replies and sensations of what is a professional discussion, market analysis, and common sense, clearly indicate to me that you have a strange position on what contemplates class. So I'll save taking coles notes from you.
If/When the day comes and the deal is done, absolute we are in it together and I will happily work alongside and go to the line for whoever is here - it's not in my control who is here. I'm only writing and trying to have a professional discussion of what's happening in the market in our industry.
I'll agree with you there.
derateNO wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:31 pm
altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:37 pm
LittleNelly wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.
^ ^ ^ That ^ ^ ^

LittleNelly understands.

You guys take it all so personally - but it's simply an interpretation of what it all means.

Fact is that you are behaving unprofessional with your responses to my reasoned posts and your desire for the deal to go through is belied in your replies because it's a great deal for you despite what many of you write... if it goes through and you're happy - good for you, this isn't about me vs you so get some class.

If/When the day comes and the deal is done, absolute we are in it together and I will happily work along side and go to the line for whoever is here - it's not in my control who is here. I'm only writing and trying to have a professional discussion of what's happening in the market in our industry.
I'm with you.

If it doesn't go though I'll be pleased. But if it does, I'll welcome all the AT pilots in with open arms.

You can hope something doesn't happen but still not be a dick if it does. It's like people don't understand that.

The way I look at it right now, AT stock is inflated and without this deal they would be in a lot worse of a position.
Why would you be pleased? I am curious.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by altiplano »

I was responding specifically regarding reasoning the low valuation of the stock.

Stop taking it personally. You may be right, but the MARKET isn't so sure.
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Victory
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Victory »

montado wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:34 pm How will Transat stock go to zero? You mean that if air Canada doesn’t buy Transat, Transat is instantly going bankrupt and liquidation? If that’s the case then Transat is not worth anything, so why would AC buy them.

Time to sell those Transat shares! Apparently they are worth nothing!/s
Not instantly but they will be bankrupt in a matter of months. Why would AC buy them? Good question.
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tsgas
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by tsgas »

Victory wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:54 am
montado wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:34 pm How will Transat stock go to zero? You mean that if air Canada doesn’t buy Transat, Transat is instantly going bankrupt and liquidation? If that’s the case then Transat is not worth anything, so why would AC buy them.

Time to sell those Transat shares! Apparently they are worth nothing!/s
Not instantly but they will be bankrupt in a matter of months. Why would AC buy them? Good question.
AC might be expecting a discount in light of the new financial realities.
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