Any AC pilot who think that there won't be mass layoffs, or that this will be over soon, are in complete denial about the scope of the crisis.
The infection numbers are just ramping up and a number of countries who decided not to take more drastic measures earlier are on the same - or even worse - statistical trajectories as Italy. And it is an utter horror show there. North America may be lagging but by how much. Days? Weeks at most?
Bickering about seniority is mind-blowing. Same mindset as hoarding toilet paper. Time to rearrange some priorities!
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I’m still waiting for my white male privilege membership card. Must have gotten lost in the mail.
We were still conducting interviews yesterday, don't forget the last equipment assignment showed almost 900 vacancies. I for one hope we follow the WJ model of going to significantly reduced blocks to keep everyone employed. Together with an early retirement package, LOA's, we have an excellent Flight Ops Management team and the best CEO in the business.
Hopefully take this ONE month at a time, we can spool up quickly once this passes. Which it will!
AC is probably in the best financial position of any major Airline.
complexintentions wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:14 am
Any AC pilot who think that there won't be mass layoffs, or that this will be over soon, are in complete denial about the scope of the crisis.
The infection numbers are just ramping up and a number of countries who decided not to take more drastic measures earlier are on the same - or even worse - statistical trajectories as Italy. And it is an utter horror show there. North America may be lagging but by how much. Days? Weeks at most?
Bickering about seniority is mind-blowing. Same mindset as hoarding toilet paper. Time to rearrange some priorities!
graph.png
Lets see what happens, layoffs or not. Life will go on.
Stu Pidasso wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:57 am
We were still conducting interviews yesterday, don't forget the last equipment assignment showed almost 900 vacancies. I for one hope we follow the WJ model of going to significantly reduced blocks to keep everyone employed. Together with an early retirement package, LOA's, we have an excellent Flight Ops Management team and the best CEO in the business.
Hopefully take this ONE month at a time, we can spool up quickly once this passes. Which it will!
AC is probably in the best financial position of any major Airline.
So, how low are you willing to go?
I am sure that CR is more than happy to take your $$
Stu Pidasso wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:57 am
We were still conducting interviews yesterday, don't forget the last equipment assignment showed almost 900 vacancies. I for one hope we follow the WJ model of going to significantly reduced blocks to keep everyone employed. Together with an early retirement package, LOA's, we have an excellent Flight Ops Management team and the best CEO in the business.
Hopefully take this ONE month at a time, we can spool up quickly once this passes. Which it will!
AC is probably in the best financial position of any major Airline.
oh boy... you must live in a fairytale filled with kool-aids.
avflyer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 am
Lets see what happens, layoffs or not. Life will go on.
Of course it will. And please don't take my comments as wishing ill on anyone whatsoever. I'm glad to hear that AC is better positioned to survive than in the past.
But given the scale of how this is unfolding I just don't get the sense that there is a full grasp of how massive the impact will be, perhaps because North America is lagging behind Asia and Europe in being hit by the tsunami. And appears even less well-prepared.
"Reduced blocks"? What flying will there be when Canada finally realizes like everyone else is has to shut EVERYTHING down for awhile to slow the spread? 500,000 new EI applications this week but AC pilots won't be laid off? Come on.
Really, not saying this for the sake of being a doomer. But time to get real and try to prepare, even if only mentally.
Stu Pidasso wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:57 am
We were still conducting interviews yesterday, don't forget the last equipment assignment showed almost 900 vacancies. I for one hope we follow the WJ model of going to significantly reduced blocks to keep everyone employed. Together with an early retirement package, LOA's, we have an excellent Flight Ops Management team and the best CEO in the business.
Hopefully take this ONE month at a time, we can spool up quickly once this passes. Which it will!
AC is probably in the best financial position of any major Airline.
oh boy... you must live in a fairytale filled with kool-aids.
What I am is, old enough to have seen major setbacks before, admittedly this is the worse. I just looked outside and the sun did rise in the east, time to simmer down and let ACPA & the corp sort this out. How low would I go? ACPA has a fantastic history of work sharing, CEO took 25%, how about we start there? End of the day it looks like AC will be the only game in town for limited air travel and has always been treated as a utility service by the feds. Who will be on the hook for a large chunk of cash.
If you are employed by AC, consider yourself very lucky to survive this sh*t storm.
Stu Pidasso wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:37 am
What I am is, old enough to have seen major setbacks before, admittedly this is the worse. I just looked outside and the sun did rise in the east, time to simmer down and let ACPA & the corp sort this out. How low would I go? ACPA has a fantastic history of work sharing, CEO took 25%, how about we start there? End of the day it looks like AC will be the only game in town for limited air travel and has always been treated as a utility service by the feds. Who will be on the hook for a large chunk of cash.
If you are employed by AC, consider yourself very lucky to survive this sh*t storm.
Given the published schedule and capacity reductions, AC could easily lay off the bottom 1000-1500 with 30 days notice and severance pay per the CBA with zero operational consequence. These would all be pilots with 0-4 years of service, vast majority still on flat pay. Payroll savings would be nominal.
A 25% (for example) across the board MMG reduction would represent a multiple of the aforementioned payroll saving.
This choice is more politics than practicality.
The TS pilots voted 97% for a 25% pay reduction and the company response was to lay them all off. Different company - different circumstance.
Hopefully AC will take a more enlightened approach.
rudder wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:12 am
Given the published schedule and capacity reductions, AC could easily lay off the bottom 1000-1500 with 30 days notice and severance pay per the CBA with zero operational consequence. These would all be pilots with 0-4 years of service, vast majority still on flat pay. Payroll savings would be nominal.
A 25% (for example) across the board MMG reduction would represent a multiple of the aforementioned payroll saving.
This choice is more politics than practicality.
You have just nailed the conundrum. Flat pay, the Bane of every new hires existence, makes significant cost savings difficult for the company through layoffs. They would be far better off getting a chunk of my pay check in Lou of layoffs.
The thing is we already have a very large blocking window. AC can get the 25% cost savings just from using the lowest blocking window possible and still lay-off without any negotiations required. Well not quite 25% as reserve minimum is 5 hours higher than a block. But still I think it will have to be more than an overall 25% pay cut to stop furlough. 55 hours seems to be emerging as the norm. That is a 30-35% reduction in payroll.
I take Calin as practical and bottom line driven. Always. I think it is why we may be taking so long to know anything.
I also wonder if this is why the Transat pay cut fell through. If, I stress if, the deal has a chance in the future you can’t have AC employees taking a greater hit than Transat employees through this crisis. I wonder if Transat pilots will have a chance to re enter mitigation negotiations. The problem there though is that it is a complete shutdown.
With that said I am also a realist. That solution would only be temporary until getting better eyes on the horizon.
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Likely there will not be major lay-offs for pilots at Air Canada as long as pilots agree to cuts. This will also save the company substantial time and money for massive retraining. After 911 cuts were in the form of pay-cuts which took some time to return to previous levels; in this case it is wiser to reduce monthly blocks for a period of time, which requires no further negotiations to return to previous levels, plus hopefully it is more short-lived and there will be good demand for air travel after recovery. Of course things could get worse, but they could also get better and there is no point to increase prediction of doom and gloom as some like to do!
complexintentions wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:14 am
Any AC pilot who think that there won't be mass layoffs, or that this will be over soon, are in complete denial about the scope of the crisis.
The infection numbers are just ramping up and a number of countries who decided not to take more drastic measures earlier are on the same - or even worse - statistical trajectories as Italy. And it is an utter horror show there. North America may be lagging but by how much. Days? Weeks at most?
Bickering about seniority is mind-blowing. Same mindset as hoarding toilet paper. Time to rearrange some priorities!
graph.png
So...... almost 1/10th the swine flu pandemic nobody remembers?
cloak wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 am
Likely there will not be major lay-offs for pilots at Air Canada as long as pilots agree to cuts. This will also save the company substantial time and money for massive retraining. After 911 cuts were in the form of pay-cuts which took some time to return to previous levels; in this case it is wiser to reduce monthly blocks for a period of time, which requires no further negotiations to return to previous levels, plus hopefully it is more short-lived and there will be good demand for air travel after recovery. Of course things could get worse, but they could also get better and there is no point to increase prediction of doom and gloom as some like to do!
Couldn't agree more. Cut the hours to reduce layoffs but maintain the pay rate, give flexibility where necessary but maintain the work rules, ensure sunset/snapback clauses and even gains are attached to the recovery and any management pay increases.
We are going to take our lumps one way or another, but make sure we get the upswing when the recovery comes.
iflyforpie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:56 am
So...... almost 1/10th the swine flu pandemic nobody remembers?
Good grief. The numbers presented in that graphic are to show trends, not absolute values. Those can't be known yet for Covid-19. Duh?
The swine flu was contained. Covid-19 has not remotely been contained. See the difference?
Besides, this thread is about economic impact (job losses), not stats on dead and infected.
If believing this is less serious than swine flu helps you feel better, that's fine. I wish the world markets agreed with you. The numbers are looking more like 1929 than 2009. That's not gloom and doom prediction, that's reality.
I guess it depends on how much cash AC wants to burn on retaining staff versus how long it believes it can do so and not weaken itself to the point of insolvency. Since no one has an end date on the pandemic, surely it's prudent to consider one possible outcome is to cut expenditures quickly and preserve a war chest for the future? Or is Air Canada so much better capitalized, managed, and just plain knows better than the rest of the world's airlines?
I have my doubts.
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Last edited by complexintentions on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
I’m still waiting for my white male privilege membership card. Must have gotten lost in the mail.
Senior, junior, mid-seniority; everyone should feel some of the pain of this COVID-19. Outside our fish bowl of the airline industry there are scores of people where worksharing is not an option - there ain't no work and hence 1/2 million of them applied for EI this week.
I have already communicated with my LEC that we should drop the hours as required to keep everyone on the property, everyone working and everyone current for when things turn around. And things will turn around eventually and soon.
AC pilots have done what they have had to do to keep people employed over the various crises of the past twenty years; let's hope they do the same this time around.
Millions are losing their jobs here. Even if this virus goes away by summer no one is going to travel vs. keeping food on the table. It’s going to be a much longer time before things return to normal. (If they ever do)
PS. 500,000 applied for EI last week. 27,000 same time last year.
You did present a distorted graph though which misrepresents the trend significantly.
Not saying the event isn't significant, just pointing out it's a poorly constructed graph for a layperson to get an impression of relative severity between countries.
I guess it depends on how much cash AC wants to burn on retaining staff versus how long it believes it can do so and not weaken itself to the point of insolvency. Since no one has an end date on the pandemic, surely it's prudent to consider one possible outcome is to cut expenditures quickly and preserve a war chest for the future? Or is Air Canada so much better capitalized, managed, and just plain knows better than the rest of the world's airlines?
I have my doubts.
With almost $8 billion cash, short and long term investments as well as access to lines of credit, equivalent to roughly 6 months of operation, that is pretty solid. If AC did nothing - flew empty airplanes, did not reduce staffing expenses and had zero revenue - it would be October before it ran out of cash. That's obviously not going to happen as the fuel and navigation costs go to zero as the flying drops and staffing costs will decline with either layoffs or work sharing programs.
I would submit that AC is in excellent financial shape to weather this storm.
Supposedly perspectives can be very different depending on one's position in the industry. Like the stock market; those already invested hope and say the effect is going to subside soon and those wanting to get in hope and say that it is bound to go down more! I suppose it's human nature. Whether perceived as more informed based on experience or just driven by fear of uncertainty, all are opinions to be taken with a grain of salt!
Most North American airlines have done well recently with good cash reserves. Regardless, it just makes more economical sense to negotiate for reduced blocks as opposed to major lay-offs which trigger massive retraining cost and time. It is quite transparent argument and win-win for both sides. For the pilots, it keeps everyone employed without having to apply for EI which most likely has to repaid. For the companies, it makes sense because of savings in cost and time. If there is to be more extreme measures, the pilot groups may have to allow companies even more latitude in order to survive and absolute seniority and "setting parking brakes" may just not be founded in the realities of our times!
Umm, you all know that most countries have or will close their borders to foreign travellers right? This is just getting started and you are talking about reduced blocks. AC will be lucky not to lay off half their pilots in a few months. All in my opinion of course and we all know about those....lol but the state of the world has changed. It will be much different moving forward. Stay well everyone and take care of your families. That is the only thing that matters now.
G
Daniel Cooper wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:06 am
There may be a silver lining in that layoff notice for Transat pilots. If their management truly believes the deal with AC is going through at the price negotiated there is no reason to continue operating the company while losing money hand over fist. Better to sit back and wait for your $750 million payday.
It's going to be a hard sell to the bean counters. Transat wasn't making a profit prior to this pandemic and doesn't own a single acft. If they were to go bankrupt , then AC could negotiate better terms from the leasing companies and hire pilots without the seniority problems.
Its' been a long time since I have read anything on this forum. Its unfortunate to see the mud slinging continues. Regardless of which airline you work for or which seat you sit in, or what your seniority number is, we are all in a real pickle. Realistically, there is a good chance that in the not so distant future, all of this layoff stuff just might be the least of our worries. I think it is important to try and keep some perspective.
I am currently interpreting this lack of official company statement regarding layoffs as a good thing. It confirms to me that the Company and ACPA are in dialogue and that is very important. If they weren't collectively trying to find the best resolution, we would likely have heard something by now.
The one ironic issue is that due to massive hiring, AC currently has a lot of pilots on flat salary. Those pilots would be at the bottom of the list and logically, the most vulnerable. The flat salary however is likely working in their favor because the airline could conceivably spend more in retraining than it would realize in payroll savings. Yes, they could invoke Force Majeure but I think they are more interested in working with ACPA at this point and I truly believe that ACPA has the same motivation.
I hear a lot about how the 737 guys should be laid off because they are grounded anyway. It saddens me to hear that. Through no fault of their own, the aircraft was grounded and they have already been benched at reduced pay for a year. Many have bid off, some have been trained onto other equipment. Many are stuck there because Boeing has consistently been dangling a 30 day start up and the company could simply not let the group evaporate. I hear that Boeing is paying their salaries but you can bet that negotiation is being reopened.
It is my hope that the Company and ACPA are looking at the pilot group as a whole rather than a series of aircraft type entities. The seniority is all over the map these days as people realize that family and lifestyle are sometimes more important than the airplane or the seat. We have RP's who could be 737 Captains and 777 FO's who could be A330 Captains. If you look at the bottom Captain on any aircraft, there is a massive disparity from the top. So if the annual payroll obligation of the entire group needs to be reduced by say 50% for instance, then it is my hope to see that burden carried by the entire group, as a whole. We could collectively save our employer a lot of money and time in wasted training costs. Not to mention maintain an ability to facilitate a faster restart. We could save our country another 2000 plus EI payouts. Maybe I am out to lunch. Admittedly, I don't have all the facts but we love to speak about solidarity, now is the perfect time to actually demonstrate that we mean it.
