Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

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mbav8r
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by mbav8r »

Jean-Pierre wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
I wonder if the competition bureau report that was due today will be delayed. Sunwing being bankrupt or close to it must be a big consideration if they will allow AC to buy TS and essentially have a monopoly on that kind of vacation travel.
Curious, why do you say Sunwing is bankrupt or near? I have not read anything other than they stopped operation, likely to prevent this.
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

mbav8r wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:26 am
Jean-Pierre wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
I wonder if the competition bureau report that was due today will be delayed. Sunwing being bankrupt or close to it must be a big consideration if they will allow AC to buy TS and essentially have a monopoly on that kind of vacation travel.
Curious, why do you say Sunwing is bankrupt or near? I have not read anything other than they stopped operation, likely to prevent this.
Sunwing is extremely exposed. So is Transat, although the TRZ Executives seem to be behaving as if their company is somehow immune.

In the case of Sunwing, it is entirely possible they will have zero operations until the fall. Think of that - zero revenue for up to 6 months. At the same time, significant overhead costs (leases/vendors/etc) and massive customer claims for cash refunds for cancelled vacations. The math equals a huge number. No idea how much cash on hand but as a privately held company (Hunter family/TUI), cash demands beyond cash on hand will be required from these 2 sources. Can they afford it? Are they even willing to pour that money in?

I am sure that many difficult and unimaginable strategic decisions are being made by SWG as we speak. Remember, the ultimate goal is survival. Live to fight again. Use all of the tools in the tool box.

TRZ should be acting similarly. However, it appears that the Executive suite have decided that removing 70% of staff from payroll should suffice. Makes one wonder what the little birds in YUL, YOW, and YQB have told TRZ about the future.

Time will tell.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:02 am
mbav8r wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:26 am
Jean-Pierre wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
I wonder if the competition bureau report that was due today will be delayed. Sunwing being bankrupt or close to it must be a big consideration if they will allow AC to buy TS and essentially have a monopoly on that kind of vacation travel.
Curious, why do you say Sunwing is bankrupt or near? I have not read anything other than they stopped operation, likely to prevent this.


TRZ should be acting similarly. However, it appears that the Executive suite have decided that removing 70% of staff from payroll should suffice. Makes one wonder what the little birds in YUL, YOW, and YQB have told TRZ about the future.
⅔ of staff already laid off and the last flight will land on April 2, complete shutdown afterwards. What else do you want them to do beyond that?
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

TFTMB heavy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:12 am
⅔ of staff already laid off and the last flight will land on April 2, complete shutdown afterwards. What else do you want them to do beyond that?
Identify cash on hand. Estimate cash burn rate. Reduce cash burn rate (layoffs - done). Draw down available credit lines.

Call vendors. Negotiate payment deferrals. Cancel all non-critical expenditures.

Identify additional sources of liquidity (including but not limited to government assistance).

Contingency planning. Short term. Medium term. Long term.

I sense that the TRZ Executive (and shareholders) believe that they have a guaranteed way out of the current crisis. Perhaps that will be the case. I hope so for the TS staff. SWG employees don’t have that luxury.

But very little in life comes with a 100% guarantee.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:23 am
TFTMB heavy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:12 am
⅔ of staff already laid off and the last flight will land on April 2, complete shutdown afterwards. What else do you want them to do beyond that?
Identify cash on hand. Estimate cash burn rate. Reduce cash burn rate (layoffs - done). Draw down available credit lines.

Call vendors. Negotiate payment deferrals. Cancel all non-critical expenditures.

Identify additional sources of liquidity (including but not limited to government assistance).

Contingency planning. Short term. Medium term. Long term.

I sense that the TRZ Executive (and shareholders) believe that they have a guaranteed way out of the current crisis. Perhaps that will be the case. I hope so for the TS staff. SWG employees don’t have that luxury.

But very little in life comes with a 100% guarantee.
That is all being done. If you have a source of information that says otherwise, it's wrong. If it's your own deductions, you don't know what you're talking about.
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:23 am
TFTMB heavy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:12 am
⅔ of staff already laid off and the last flight will land on April 2, complete shutdown afterwards. What else do you want them to do beyond that?
Identify cash on hand. Estimate cash burn rate. Reduce cash burn rate (layoffs - done). Draw down available credit lines.

Call vendors. Negotiate payment deferrals. Cancel all non-critical expenditures.

Identify additional sources of liquidity (including but not limited to government assistance).

Contingency planning. Short term. Medium term. Long term.
....they did it weeks ago and I can tell you that payment deferrals have been approved for most of our fleet...the problem is that your comments are based on limited info.
But very little in life comes with a 100% guarantee.
this is also applicable to you...
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

I have read the corporate disclosures. So, I know what has been divulged externally. And yes, significant measures have been taken.

This thread was interrupted by a comment contrasting SWG to TS. That was the point of the reply.

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.
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airboy1
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by airboy1 »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am
I have read the corporate disclosures. So, I know what has been divulged externally. And yes, significant measures have been taken.

This thread was interrupted by a comment contrasting SWG to TS. That was the point of the reply.

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.
Agree, I believe the TRZ merge will occur to save it. AC will probably get a bailout package as a condition. Lucky TRZ shareholders!
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.

You mean where they were before TUI stepped in?
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

airboy1 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:42 am
rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am
I have read the corporate disclosures. So, I know what has been divulged externally. And yes, significant measures have been taken.

This thread was interrupted by a comment contrasting SWG to TS. That was the point of the reply.

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.
Agree, I believe the TRZ merge will occur to save it. AC will probably get a bailout package as a condition. Lucky TRZ shareholders!
It’s not too late to buy TRZ shares; they’re still at a discount price
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Sharklasers
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Sharklasers »

airboy1 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:42 am
rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am
I have read the corporate disclosures. So, I know what has been divulged externally. And yes, significant measures have been taken.

This thread was interrupted by a comment contrasting SWG to TS. That was the point of the reply.

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.
Agree, I believe the TRZ merge will occur to save it. AC will probably get a bailout package as a condition. Lucky TRZ shareholders!
Lucky TRZ pilots who get to enjoy the job security of working at AC without having to work there at all.
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

Sharklasers wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:50 am
airboy1 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:42 am
rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:36 am
I have read the corporate disclosures. So, I know what has been divulged externally. And yes, significant measures have been taken.

This thread was interrupted by a comment contrasting SWG to TS. That was the point of the reply.

SWG has no lifeboat. Where SWG ends up is exactly where TRZ would end up without the AC deal.
Agree, I believe the TRZ merge will occur to save it. AC will probably get a bailout package as a condition. Lucky TRZ shareholders!
Lucky TRZ pilots who get to enjoy the job security of working at AC without having to work there at all.
And some of them who will become richer thanks to the deal than having worked there for 15 years..
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airboy1
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by airboy1 »

FL320 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:46 am

It’s not too late to buy TRZ shares; they’re still at a discount price
I don't invest in airlines (for these very unpredictable reasons). But hopefully the seniority can get integrated quickly for these guys and gals and get them flying again! Best of luck.
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

FL320 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:29 am
this is also applicable to you...
100% agree.

Best of luck to all.
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Jumbo744
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Jumbo744 »

Lol....Sunwing bankrupt or close to it ? You have no idea what you are talking about.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by RRJetPilot »

Maybe not bankrupt... But who in Canada will have money to leisure travel. People are over leveraged and on the brink of bankruptcy. The Canadian economy was running on debt fueled by the "wealth effect". Caused by rising home prices. The chickens have come home to roost. Unfortunately. It is very sad and I wish we will come out of this whole. But I'm a realist and am prepared for the worst. Those with cash and savings will come out ahead. Those with LOC, HELOCS, high ratio mortgages, are done.
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Daniel Cooper
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Daniel Cooper »

Perhaps the competition bureau will announce a delay in the report due to their workers being at home due to virus.
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Gilles Hudicourt
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Gilles Hudicourt »

rudder wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:23 am

I sense that the TRZ Executive (and shareholders) believe that they have a guaranteed way out of the current crisis. Perhaps that will be the case. I hope so for the TS staff.
You don't seem to realize that the buyer will only buy the product if at the time of closure, the seller still has a product to sell. If you make me a conditional offer on my bungalow, conditional on you being able to obtain a permit to add a second floor, and before the permit comes through, my house burns down, you are not only released from your commitment to buy but you also get a refund on your deposit.

Transat Executives are not sitting on their hands because Air Canada has offered to buy. They are outside with hoses, backhoes and chainsaws trying to save the house from the bushfire threatening to burn it down and for which they have no insurance.....
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Last edited by Gilles Hudicourt on Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.

altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by altiplano »

Daniel Cooper wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:38 pm
Perhaps the competition bureau will announce a delay in the report due to their workers being at home due to virus.
With the changing landscapes I could see that they would need to significantly revamp the report
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Fanblade »

altiplano wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:01 pm
Daniel Cooper wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:38 pm
Perhaps the competition bureau will announce a delay in the report due to their workers being at home due to virus.
With the changing landscapes I could see that they would need to significantly revamp the report
It really doesn’t matter what the competition bureau has to say if failure of one party is at stake. They look at competition only. So yes it will be negative. What they don’t consider at all is if one party would fail, and the same uncompetitive result happens anyway.

That Conundrum is left to the Minister to decide. Mr Garneau.

If the competition will fail anyway, he will almost guaranteed over ride the competition Bureau and approve the deal.

I have seen this movie.

How do you think the Canadian AC merger was approved? Competition Bureau said bad for competition. The Liberal Minister said yeah but competition is failing anyway. So he approved it.

Imminent failure of one party actually gives the Minster more political cover to approve a transaction that the competition bureau does not recommend and might be bad for consumers.

IOW the current situation only increases the likelihood that the Government will give the deal a green light.
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hithere
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by hithere »

Yes but does AC want to pay $18 a share for it and does it want extra capacity when it’s shedding its own?
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Gilles Hudicourt
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Gilles Hudicourt »

hithere wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:45 pm
Yes but does AC want to pay $18 a share for it and does it want extra capacity when it’s shedding its own?
This is not a case where the Federal Government is imposing anything on Air Canada. It will proceed with the purchase if it so desires, or withdraw the offer if no longer in its interest.....
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98 Corolla
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by 98 Corolla »

Has a seniority list merger ever happened during a layoff period? What happens then?
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airboy1
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by airboy1 »

98 Corolla wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:35 pm
Has a seniority list merger ever happened during a layoff period? What happens then?
Does it matter? It's not like pilots have a say in the matter.

Probably more politics at play, TRZ needs this to survive. I still think it will be a conditional requirment for a bailout package at AC. Lots of jobs at play.
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