When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

[Inverted2]

I give it 2-3 years....... but the economic damage has yet to be seen. When Justin keeps printing $$$ and paying everyone a few grand a month to stay home: That isn’t sustainable and sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost.

[780Pilot]

I give it 2-3 years....... but the economic damage has yet to be seen. When Justin keeps printing $$$ and paying everyone a few grand a month to stay home: That isn’t sustainable and sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost.

100% agree with you. Don't wanna get political but eventually the majority will say enough and get people back to work. If we keep doing this get ready to see a sub 60 cent loonie.

[iflyforpie]

Same death rates as the flu, as of April 25.

“I mean people always say, 'Well, the flu does this, the flu does that,'” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said Wednesday during a hearing before the House Oversight and Reform Committee.
“The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that."

And then there are the rows of refrigerated morgue trucks...
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mi ... -19-deaths

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... yes-by-far

It's not like the flu bro.

Sure it is... if the flu was accurately tracked and differentially diagnosed and reported and published by the media daily or hourly.

The CDC can’t even tell you how many flu deaths there are in the US. Their annual flu burden estimates are pretty much in line with COVID-19. There’s also talk of COVID-19 numbers getting boosted to help open the floodgates of cash. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but I’ve seen similar shenanigans in other publicly funded institutions.

Rows of bodies do make for striking imagery. But this still doesn’t hold a candle to cancer or stroke or heart diseases... and is also roughly comparable to automobile accidents and suicides—things that aren’t quite cute enough for the media to get their ratings up unless they are associated with a single event. Where are rows of morgue trucks for the 600,000 Americans who will die from cancer this year? That’s the total US COVID deaths every month just from that. lol.. the centre aisles are still the most dangerous aspect of going to the grocery store.

[AuxBatOn]

Why aren’t there lines of refrigerated trucks for cancer and flu deaths but there are for COVID??

[Aux1]

Sure it is... if the flu was accurately tracked and differentially diagnosed and reported and published by the media daily or hourly.

...Flat-Earther?

[mixturerich]

Why aren’t there lines of refrigerated trucks for cancer and flu deaths but there are for COVID??

Why aren’t there lines of refrigerated trucks for cancer and flu deaths but there are for COVID??

Good point. Lots of bodies can pile up quickly, as we have seen. I feel like that makes it pretty obvious how real this pandemic is, but some people around here will still say “just bring in more refrigerator trucks, it’s worth it to save the economy.”

Anyways, lots of damage is already done. As individual states begin trial runs of lesser restrictions, we will see if hospitals can keep up. Hopefully sooner, rather than later, someone will find a good balance, and everyone else can follow suit. The economy is not like a light switch anyways, and they can’t just “turn it back on” like nothing happened.

It’s difficult for everyone to evenly understand. You have angry, stressed out, unemployed people on one side, and people like the top Manhattan ER doc commuting suicide from overwork on the other. It’s a moral dilemma and there is no right answer, so that’s why finding a balance will be critical. Somewhere between mass graves and mass suicides, right? Right. That moral dilemma is the spearhead of any pandemic, and regardless of all the bickering, finger-pointing, and speculating, we can already see the civil damage it does.

[shimmydampner]

[But this still doesn’t hold a candle to cancer or stroke or heart diseases... and is also roughly comparable to automobile accidents and suicides

Well, cancer, stroke, heart disease, car accidents and suicides are not contagious diseases. You won't have a stroke from being within 6 feet of someone who is having one. And let's not act is if those things have not caused permanent restrictions to the way we live our lives.
Speaking of car accidents, there was a time when wearing a seatbelt was optional. Now if you don't, you'll be subject to a heavy fine, even if you were conforming to every other aspect of the driving laws and not endangering anyone else.
It used to be that you could smoke virtually anywhere, unrestricted: bars, restaurants, airplanes, offices, hospitals, wherever. Cigarettes were cheap and plentiful; until we all clued in that they caused cancer, stroke and heart disease. Now if you buy cigarettes, you'll pay a massive tax. And once you've paid that tax, you are severely restricted as to where you can consume them. Nowadays, people are so concerned about the negative health effects of tobacco smoke on the general population that you won't even be able to enjoy your cigarettes within 10-30 feet of an entrance to a building. People didn't like it at the time when these sorts of restrictions came into force, but with the benefit of hindsight we can see that it was for the best. People who don't want to smoke shouldn't be subjected to inhaling it because you want to. For the good of the general population who do not want to suffer the negative health effects of smoking, your right to poison yourself comes with restrictions.
Coronavirus isn't quite like that, but it might be worse. NO ONE wants to suffer from it. But it's not like you can see where it's at and avoid it. A person carrying the virus isn't exhaling a cloud of smoke. We've taken steps in the past to protect people from things like cigarette smoke and we have to do the same now with covid. I'm not saying that what we're doing at the moment is right or wrong, I don't know enough about the spread and control of contagious diseases to be qualified to say that. (As I suspect most of us PILOTS are not, no matter how smart we are as armchair experts.) You say it's roughly comparable to car accidents and suicide. So what? We still take steps to try to prevent those. And we shouldn't accept a doubling of those numbers of fatalities simply because to do otherwise is inconvenient.

[phillyfan]

It will never return. Business travel alone will never return.
There are European countries working on Laws that will ensure people work from home after this is over.

If it returns it wont be in any of our lifetimes.

The real question is how long can the Government continue to pay Airline Staff the $847 a week beefed up welfare? Tourism and air travel will be absolutely devastated. The tourism shoe has not even dropped yet. Just think of the Global tourism industry that will be destroyed in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. The pain of this has not even begun.

[FL320]

It will never return. Business travel alone will never return.
There are European countries working on Laws that will ensure people work from home after this is over.

If it returns it wont be in any of our lifetimes.

The real question is how long can the Government continue to pay Airline Staff the $847 a week beefed up welfare? Tourism and air travel will be absolutely devastated. The tourism shoe has not even dropped yet. Just think of the Global tourism industry that will be destroyed in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. The pain of this has not even begun.

Lol! Stop reading MSN news; it’s gonna be better for your mental health.
For the last 3 years I gave about 120 000$ per year income taxes to the government, no kids and I go to private healthcare...I don’t cost too much to the system....847$ GROSS per week in return is a pure joke!

[goldeneagle]

100% agree with you. Don't wanna get political but eventually the majority will say enough and get people back to work. If we keep doing this get ready to see a sub 60 cent loonie.

Loonie pricing is driven by oil price more than anything else. As far as the printing of new money happening right now, US is printing at a far higher rate than Canada, so if anything it will point to a stronger loonie over time if you are just measuring against the greenaback. Considering the direction of oil the last couple of weeks, loonie has been holding it's own pretty well. It rode down with oil thru March, then when the US started printing in trillion dollar increments, loonie actually started getting stronger again.

[780Pilot]

100% agree with you. Don't wanna get political but eventually the majority will say enough and get people back to work. If we keep doing this get ready to see a sub 60 cent loonie.

Loonie pricing is driven by oil price more than anything else. As far as the printing of new money happening right now, US is printing at a far higher rate than Canada, so if anything it will point to a stronger loonie over time if you are just measuring against the greenaback. Considering the direction of oil the last couple of weeks, loonie has been holding it's own pretty well. It rode down with oil thru March, then when the US started printing in trillion dollar increments, loonie actually started getting stronger again.

I think currently Canada has spent more on a per capita basis. If the US keeps passing massive spending bills for COVID it will surpass us eventually. The population helps them for sure.

[goldeneagle]

I think currently Canada has spent more on a per capita basis

Go tally the numbers, you'll find you are wrong. Yes, Canada has put more directly into the pockets of workers, but we haven't put trillions of dollars into propping up bond markets which indirectly juices the stock markets. The level of QE suddenly unleashed in the US is astounding, it's more than they did for Y2K and look at history, how that ran up the Nasdaq numbers.

But, it aint over till it's over, and this rodeo is far from over. Me thinks donny will find a few more trillions to dump into juicing the markets as the election approaches, but time will tell.

[780Pilot]

I think currently Canada has spent more on a per capita basis

Go tally the numbers, you'll find you are wrong. Yes, Canada has put more directly into the pockets of workers, but we haven't put trillions of dollars into propping up bond markets which indirectly juices the stock markets. The level of QE suddenly unleashed in the US is astounding, it's more than they did for Y2K and look at history, how that ran up the Nasdaq numbers.

But, it aint over till it's over, and this rodeo is far from over. Me thinks donny will find a few more trillions to dump into juicing the markets as the election approaches, but time will tell.

Thx for the info!

[gtappl]

It will never return. Business travel alone will never return.
There are European countries working on Laws that will ensure people work from home after this is over.

If it returns it wont be in any of our lifetimes.

The real question is how long can the Government continue to pay Airline Staff the $847 a week beefed up welfare? Tourism and air travel will be absolutely devastated. The tourism shoe has not even dropped yet. Just think of the Global tourism industry that will be destroyed in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. The pain of this has not even begun.

What do you say all the flying students should do now?

[goldeneagle]

The people saying how virtual meetings are the future and working from home is the new normal forget one thing.. Productivity goes way down.

I guess that depends a lot on your people. My company has been full telecommute since the late 90's. We have never had a physical office, and employees all work from home. If your idea of 'work from home' means using a laptop on the couch for a couple hours a day, then I would agree, folks wont be productive that way. OTOH, folks that set up a proper environment at home will normally be more productive than in an office setup. There are less distractions and they dont have the aggravation of commuting, battling for parking, yadda yadda.

Then again, it does depend on what your business is as well. We have software developers, hardware design, sales and accounting, all of which can be done in a virtual office environment. Wont work so well for folks that have jobs which require some form of 'hands on'.

[mbav8r]

It will never return. Business travel alone will never return.
There are European countries working on Laws that will ensure people work from home after this is over.

If it returns it wont be in any of our lifetimes.

The real question is how long can the Government continue to pay Airline Staff the $847 a week beefed up welfare? Tourism and air travel will be absolutely devastated. The tourism shoe has not even dropped yet. Just think of the Global tourism industry that will be destroyed in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. The pain of this has not even begun.

What do you say all the flying students should do now?

gtappl,
When I started my training it was during a downturn, I was warned by several long time pilots against going through with it, many said do anything else. I knew these pilots from being a rampy and loadmaster, so worked quite closely, sat in the jumpseat 100s of hours, developed friendships and I trusted what they were saying.
However, I had the bug, my plans of law school changed, I went ahead despite the warnings. I wouldn’t change it, I have endured three downturns and will eventually get through this one but be warned, if you are not doing this for a passion, you will likely just be throwing away 100g.
I will also say this, my kids were told I wouldn’t help with tuition if it was for flying, this had to be on their own. Again, if for the wrong reasons, odds are good the money is being flushed down the toilet.
Good luck

[Big Pistons Forever]

IAG , the holding company for British Airways has stated that it is planning the future of their operation with the assumption that air travel will not return to 2019 levels for several years and will see a reduced fleet size and head count in the short and medium term.

[Zaibatsu]

I give it 2-3 years....... but the economic damage has yet to be seen. When Justin keeps printing $$$ and paying everyone a few grand a month to stay home: That isn’t sustainable and sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost.

They’ll come home to roost in the US long before they do in Canada. Canada’s debt to GDP was 40% before COVID, the US was well over 100%.

[piperdriver]

Phillyfan,

Don’t drink the kool aid the media is selling. Do yourself a favour and turn off the television and computer.

[780Pilot]

Phillyfan,

Don’t drink the kool aid the media is selling. Do yourself a favour and turn off the television and computer.

lol +1

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

40yo pilot in training here. I made a choice, and I will see it through. I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and one or two pandemics. We will see the other side of this.

When do I think flying will be back to February 2020 levels? In February 2022. But it will be back. It's gonna be rough, but not 9/11 rough.

I need to believe this, because I've made my choice. But I do not think I'm wrong.

[geodoc]

Phillyfan,

Don’t drink the kool aid the media is selling. Do yourself a favour and turn off the television and computer.

So it's "Nothing is true and Everything is Possible?"




.

[Inverted2]

40yo pilot in training here. I made a choice, and I will see it through. I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and one or two pandemics. We will see the other side of this.

When do I think flying will be back to February 2020 levels? In February 2022. But it will be back. It's gonna be rough, but not 9/11 rough.

I need to believe this, because I've made my choice. But I do not think I'm wrong.

I wish you the best but this we are dealing with now is like 10 times worse than 9/11.

[oldncold]

the covid 19 deaths in the usa have passed the amount of deaths listed on the Vietnam War Memorial. it (flying) will come back but the. jury is still out on how long. it took 4 yrs after the Spanish flu pandemic a hundred years ago then the roaring 20's.got into full swing. followed buy the. bust.. so my take is 2023. spring. hiring. will resume. at a good clip.

[Justjohn]

I wish you the best but this we are dealing with now is like 10 times worse than 9/11.

I agree. I’ve been flying since the mid ‘80’s. I thought the couple of years following 9/11 were pretty bleak. There were a lot more factors involved in the down turn than just the terrorist attack but the catalyst for what followed was a one day event.

This is something altogether bigger. Government money (taxpayer money) is helping bridge things short term but going forward a LOT people are going to be just grateful to have food and shelter figured out. Social distancing is already the new normal. That’s not going to change just because lockdown ends and restrictions eased.

Concerts, sporting events, and any Large gatherings are things, rightly or wrongly, people are going to be uneasy about even if they are permitted.

When I talk with, properly socially distant of course, most people outside the industry the thought of getting on an airplane with the confined spaces and the recycled air for leisure travel is viewed as VERY unappealing.

I wish it were different as I’ve spent most of my working life pursuing with a passion this career. But a realistic assessment of the the shape of things to come says, to me at least, is that this is Much Much more than a bump or a temporary slowdown. I don’t want to be right about this, but I think that we are going to feel the echo of COVID 19 for a decade.