The Return to Normal?

[Inverted2]

You know Ronald Reagan had Alzheimers while he was president, don't you?

And we have a ski instructor.....your point is invalid.

I thought he was a drama teacher? He’s adept in dressing up in many costumes you know.

[Jimmyh787]

Unread post by ayseven » Wed May 13, 2020 3:55 pm

You know Ronald Reagan had Alzheimers while he was president, don't you?

From his inauguration speech in 1981, he was diagnosed in 1994. Regardless of that, it was intended to highlight the fact Canadians have developed a tendency of relying on the government to solve all of their problems with “free” printed money. At the same time deficits at all levels (individual/government)rise to insurmountable levels. This isn’t virus specific, it’s been going on for a long time, buying votes with “free” money, and kicking the debt problem down the road for future generations to deal with.

[Rockie]

Recently Dr. Anthony Fauci was questioned by a Republican majority US Senate committee (Trump barred him from appearing before the Democrat majority House of Representatives) and was asked about easing restrictions in the US. Dr. Fauci had very specific warnings against opening before appropriate guidelines had been met, particularly with regard to schools. Trump disagreed because you know, nobody knows more about infectious diseases than him.

So the US is going to ignore medically recommended guidelines and throw the doors open in defiance of science and grim, rising numbers of infections and death. 40% of the country will support this as suggested by the latest polls from multiple sources.

“The Washington Post”

“While 84 percent of Republicans said they trusted the information they received from President Trump about the virus in the CNN poll, just 72 percent said the same about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while just 61 percent said the same about Fauci.
The newer CBS poll is even starker. While Republicans trust Trump by an 85-15 margin for coronavirus information, they are now evenly split on Fauci — 51-49.”

Republicans increasingly place more trust in President Inject Bleach than they do in science.

This is why America will die of stupidity.

[ayseven]

We are very much in the age of darkness. No different than Europe prior to the Age of Enlightenment.

[mixturerich]

The second wave should be fun.

[ayseven]

yeah no kidding. Trying to avoid thinking about that.

[Old fella]

Not good, perhaps expected though


https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... 96?cmp=rss

[paddy]

How many pilots are being let go?

[pelmet]

Sorry, I was so livid with assholes that don’t wash their hands that I double posted. FFS!

I love when you see guys at the airport walk out of the washroom stalls straight for the exit ....after doing the number 2...even more exiting is when you see one of the airline guys in uniform Hope they use those wipes when they jump on board.

At the Officer’s Club washroom one night an Air Force pilot notices a Navy pilot heading straight for the exit after using the urinal.

Air Force guy: “In the Air Force we wash our hands after using the urinal.”
Navy guy: “In the Navy we don’t piss all over our hands.”

Really old joke. Be the Air Force guy and wash your hands.

Last I heard....

Navy guys break ground and fly into wind
Air Force guys break wind and fly into the ground

[timeflies]

Not good, perhaps expected though


https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... 96?cmp=rss

why would Air Canada opt out of CEWS when it's basically government money? Sounds like some kind of pressure on the feds to bailout... they don't want 20k people on unemployment.

[bob99]

It still costs money to keep them on their benefits and pay into their pensions.

[Babar350]

How many pilots are being let go?

I would say roughly 50%?

[FL320]

Not good, perhaps expected though


https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... 96?cmp=rss

why would Air Canada opt out of CEWS when it's basically government money? Sounds like some kind of pressure on the feds to bailout... they don't want 20k people on unemployment.

20k people on unemployment while thousands of others are gradually returning to work; I am not sure this will put much pressure on the feds. Sunwing is heading to Jamaica, Guatemala and St Vincent to bring temporary foreign workers so it might not be an issue to find a job here in Canada.

[Fanblade]

Not good, perhaps expected though


https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... 96?cmp=rss

why would Air Canada opt out of CEWS when it's basically government money? Sounds like some kind of pressure on the feds to bailout... they don't want 20k people on unemployment.

According to AC the CEWS program is designed to keep specifically those employees who will be returning when the economy re-opens connected to their companies and on the payroll. Not for anyone. They state this comes from the PMO.

Furlough are supposed to transition to CERB and EI after June 6. Not sure if this is an error in the way AC is interpreting the CEWS, or if the government is now looking to transition surplus away from CEWS, or if AC just wants to offload the associated benefits since they believe it will be years before many return, or if AC wants CUPE and a few other Unions to negotiate reduced hours. Something a few have refused.

Either way up to 22,800 layoffs

[privateer]

Sounds like AC wants the unions to bed over and heed to the needs of the company in this uncertain future. WJ has already played chicken with the WJ pilots and in the end got what they wanted, cheap labour going forward.

[altiplano]

I think there's several parts to this recent play by the C-suite.

The company does need to right size for what it believes it will need to be coming out of this and for that matter Air Canada already carries too many staff in roles that nobody ever heard of or knows what they do. Some of that is Crown Corp baggage... this is a perfect time to turn up the pressure and trim the fat.

Those photos we see of folks with their 40 years of service cake busy swapping recipes from their cubicle on yammer? Time to go. 50+ year FA? It's rapidairs and redeyes or retirement - you choose.

But the numbers thrown out are bigger than what it will ultimately be. No doubt it's dark right now, but how does it go? Darkest before the dawn? They are understating their recovery projection to create leverage with the unions and leverage with the feds. 20,000 layoffs is a big number meant to shock. And now is the time to do it. The bottom of the curve. No crisis wasted.

Unions not playing ball, will either take concessions or be forced into them by the feds to preserve the economic recovery or some such thing.

The company is also lobbying the feds on several fronts, maybe short term bailout, but bigger than that would be repealing the ACPPA, and truly stimulating the market would come from aligning taxes on travelers with the US. Both those would bring lasting gains and improvement for AC (and the broader industry) to come out stronger than before and faster.

The ACPPA repeal would cost the Liberals a little in Quebec, but would be forgotten soon enough, the taxation reform would, by their own federal report, actually bring in more money with the increased market it would create.

Of course the last thing on the lobby would be what to do with the Transat transaction, 20,000 layoffs, bleak outlook, and buying a shutdown airline... tough optics there... I'll leave that dead horse at the side of the road until we see what comes.

[flea]

Any idea what impact this latest announcement will have on pilot furlough numbers post September?

[whipline]

Out of curiosity altiplano how much money should the company lose before you feel it’s necessary to hit the panic button?

How long do you think AC has before it’s filing for CCAA at its current burn rate?

[rudder]

This announcement by AC is simply a response to the lack of industry specific support from YOW. Shock and awe.

AC is telling YOW that making fully repayable loans available (and thereby loading up the debt side of the balance sheet) is not good enough, particularly considering state aid being given to global competitors. CR is looking at long term liability and impact on AC viability.

This also means that the TRZ deal is all but dead.

CR just put the call back in JT’s court.

[rudder]

Out of curiosity altiplano how much money should the company lose before you feel it’s necessary to hit the panic button?

How long do you think AC has before it’s filing for CCAA at its current burn rate?

What AC announced is intended to avoid CCAA, if not now then in the future if revenue recovery is stagnant.

And if AC were to decide to file for CCAA in order to clean up the balance sheet, it will plan to go in with lots of cash. You don’t wait until the last minute.

I don’t see it happening in 2020. But 2021 is not out of the question. However, CCAA will be the last resort when all other options have been exhausted.

[TheStig]

Any idea what impact this latest announcement will have on pilot furlough numbers post September?

600 Pilots can be furloughed prior to the end of September, the remaining 195 surplus after that, if in fact they are still surplus at that time. Flight Operations likely has been evaluating the airlines' ability to operate without some or all of those pilots. Pilots have to be furloughed in order of reverse seniority. The junior 600 pilots are a qualified in a large variety of First Officer and Relief Pilot positions, with large numbers qualified on the EMJ, L319 and L767. With little flying forecast for the foreseeable future, yesterdays lay-offs are troubling news for the pilot group as well.

[Old fella]

This announcement by AC is simply a response to the lack of industry specific support from YOW. Shock and awe.

AC is telling YOW that making fully repayable loans available (and thereby loading up the debt side of the balance sheet) is not good enough, particularly considering state aid being given to global competitors. CR is looking at long term liability and impact on AC viability.

This also means that the TRZ deal is all but dead.

CR just put the call back in JT’s court.

Some would suggest JT played the ball in his court quite very in that he blew deficit projections through the roof and well into orbit by helping as best as possible in an extraordinary challenging situation. I kinda doubt at this point in time CR is gonna intimidate The JT administration in any way. There is more to this unfortunate situation than seeing it through the Airline industry lens. Many more lenses are involved.

[rudder]

Some would suggest JT played the ball in his court quite very in that he blew deficit projections through the roof and well into orbit by helping as best as possible in an extraordinary challenging situation. I kinda doubt at this point in time CR is gonna intimidate The JT administration in any way. There is more to this unfortunate situation than seeing it through the Airline industry lens. Many more lenses are involved.

Disagree. But remember that CR does not care about the federal deficit, he cares about AC and its shareholders. And CR knows his way around YOW. Recall that is how he got his start in the AC portfolio.

By announcing the (thus far) largest single employer layoff in Canada as a result of the government mandated shutdown, AC is placing a marker on the table. JT (and perhaps BM) thought they could hide behind CEWS and LEEFF as the solution to having effectively closed a highly capital intensive industry. CR said not good enough.

CR is also placing a bet that JT does not want to see his TRZ puppy drowned (JT doesn’t care about TRZ but he does care about votes in La Belle Province).

Perhaps JT won’t blink. So be it.

But this “sunny ways” crap does not work when times are tough. Now it is the big leagues and actions (or lack thereof) have consequences.

[timeflies]

CR pulling the trigger once again. what a guy. All the questions asked during the press conference today were about AC.

With Trudeau announcing that his govt will provide more help to airlines in order to go thru this pandemic , is it an early W for AC?

One thing’s for sure, JT won't have many choices, the pressure is on him.

--

Air Canada in 2020
February: Declares record $7.38 billion in cash reserves
March: Lays off 16,000 of 38,000 workers
April: Rehires 16,000 workers because of 75% wage subsidy
May: Lays off 20,000 workers. Blames $1 billion quarterly loss ..

[McKinley]

CR pulling the trigger once again. what a guy. All the questions asked during the press conference today were about AC.

With Trudeau announcing that his govt will provide more help to airlines in order to go thru this pandemic , is it an early W for AC?

One thing’s for sure, JT won't have many choices, the pressure is on him.

--

Air Canada in 2020
February: Declares record $7.38 billion in cash reserves
March: Lays off 16,000 of 38,000 workers
April: Rehires 16,000 workers because of 75% wage subsidy
May: Lays off 20,000 workers. Blames $1 billion quarterly loss ..

You point to a systemic problem of corporate greed. ( which I resonate with) I fear, this crisis, like many will be used to further consolidate wealth at the top on the societal rung.

It’s scary times...
I do think this is shock and awe on AC’s part.. 20,000 people now on the government’s payroll is a frightening prospect ... then there’s the loss of benefits and pension...

Bailouts for the arts, oil and other things.
However, Aviation, ( a major economic engine) gets left in the dust.

I think Trudeau could be doing a hell of a lot more for aviation and other sectors.

Oh, let’s also not forget YOW chartering foreign carriers for repat flights while the Canadian aviation sector is in a coma and bordering on flatlining.