The Return to Normal?

[Sharklasers]

Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come. I get called in on occasion to do critical flights in the Beaver, for beer money. An amazing young man, chief pilot, 23 years old, hired me to do some flying for the company last summer, and left last winter to get the coveted multi/IFR will now have his career stunted for years to come. He is young enough, and just plain bloody well smart enough, and... a really nice guy... will do fine in the end.

However, all I have to do is cruise my five log books to see where all the recessions since the 70’s put a hole in my pockets. None of this past history can ever come close to what is about to happen. So, although retired, (sort of) I really do feel for you all. Another young man, brand new to the game, is back on the farm. ( God only knows how the farming industry will do)

Stay positive, stay focussed, just keep looking into the sky, and you will succeed. As for those who say “woe is me”, well perhaps it is time to consider something else.

As well, all the bells and whistles and little blinking lights in your go fast air conditioned turbo twin will never come close to a pre-GPS cruise along the coast, or across the barrens, with only your thumb on the map to tell you where you are. THAT’S flying.

Ok boomer....

['97 Tercel]

thats so 7 months ago

#keepitalive###

##hashtagsarecooltoo###

[skytramp2800]

So what’s your point , millie??

[dhc#]

Grounded travellers call on government to force airlines to issue refunds for cancelled flights.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadi ... _734_29889

[flying4dollars]

Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

[GoHomeLeg]

Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

I agree. I think the Canadian economy will bounce back quicker than the United States. We have better safety nets in Canada. Like you said, if their isn't another crippling out break people will start traveling again. The vagaboner lifestyle is strong and people are just itching to go somewhere. Once they lift restrictions, patio season and travel will be in full effect.

[2R]

Anyone planning a trip to Wuhan for some bat soup ?
Must be as good as that Blowfish sushi.

[Fanblade]

Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

I agree with you on public sentiment and the desire to get out and travel.

The likely hole in your argument is the 14 day quarantine after returning to Canada. Tam has stated this is to remain in effect as part of Canada’s best practice strategy. A second wave will extent this strategy. Other countries are also doing the same. That means quarantine at both ends.

So long as quarantine is in effect no one is leaving our boarders.

Even interprovincial non essential travel is still not supposed to be happening until phase 3 of most reopening plans.

Assuming a second wave the travel industry as a whole has just started into this current reality. A return to normal can’t be envisioned until quarantine practice ends. That may still be a year out.

I hope not. But like I said there is no chance of normalcy until quarantine practices end not just here but around the globe.

[shimmydampner]

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

With all due respect, and considering I know nothing about you and your personal situation, this sounds like an opinion from the perspective of a person with a good income, strong personal finances and a job to still go to. I agree with you that people don't WANT their way of life changed, but very few people are fortunate enough to have a choice. Most North Americans were in a precarious financial position before this all happened. For years now in Canada experts and analysts have been sounding the warning about our personal debt levels, which on average are about 50% more than our annual income before tax. I read an article recently suggesting that in the US, the poverty rate could increase by 50%. How many people were living paycheck to paycheck before unemployment suddenly skyrocketed? A huge number of the middle class are likely to find themselves in real financial trouble. And if you think that for some reason Canada is immune or will recover more quickly, RSM issued a report last month that forecasted that Canada's economic recovery will be more slow than that of the US due to a number of factors.
As a person with no non-mortgage debt and still gainfully employed, making multiple times more than the average Canadian, it would be very easy for me to sit here, viewing this topic through only that lens and find myself unable to imagine why people wouldn't travel in the absence of covid. Unfortunately though, I think covid is going to have long term, devastating effects on huge numbers of the lower middle class. Selfishly, I want air travel to return to pre covid levels immediately as it benefits all pilots, even those not employed by airlines. But I'm not so sure that it will, and I'm not so sure that it would even be a good thing if it did. I mean, I hope people will take this as a wakeup call to not live beyond their means. But hey, they obviously didn't bother before, so maybe they will not have learned. You may end up correct after all.

[Big Pistons Forever]

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.

[2R]

Jazz may go big on cargo soon , easy money .
They have the advantage of lots of crew and they already fly to most places that need lots of cargo

[truedude]

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.

You also have to take into account that this was fairly close to the merger of five regional airlines, which created significant overlap and redundancies. So it isn't quite the same.

Someone further up mentioned the 14 day quarantine and something Tam said. She has a history of saying on thing, and then doing something else. The mistake here is to believe there is actually some grand strategy that is being followed, and they will execute it step by step. The government, like the airlines, are literally making this up day by day. We are a global community, and our economies are intertwined. Finding a way to allow cross boarder travel is essential to returning to economic health, and I highly doubt we will wait until maybe a vaccine is available at some future date. This may be in the form of air bridges, testing when you arrive, or who knows what else.

Insurance may become a more problematic area, but how much money are they losing by people not purchasing travel insurance. I am sure they have a couple PhD's in mathematics crunching the numbers to determine the risk in insuring most individuals. Again, this is not a deadly to the vast majority of individuals.

Will it be a 100% the same. No, but it will move quicker than most people think.

[Big Pistons Forever]

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.

You also have to take into account that this was fairly close to the merger of five regional airlines, which created significant overlap and redundancies. So it isn't quite the same.

Will it be a 100% the same. No, but it will move quicker than most people think.

You are right it is not same but both the 1983 and 1992 downturns resulted in about 5 years of lost hiring.

The current situation is unprecedented so your guess is as good as mine but it is IMO never wise to ignore history.

In any case, as always hope for the best but plan for the worst.

[flying4dollars]

I agree with you on public sentiment and the desire to get out and travel.

The likely hole in your argument is the 14 day quarantine after returning to Canada. Tam has stated this is to remain in effect as part of Canada’s best practice strategy. A second wave will extent this strategy. Other countries are also doing the same. That means quarantine at both ends.

So long as quarantine is in effect no one is leaving our boarders.

Even interprovincial non essential travel is still not supposed to be happening until phase 3 of most reopening plans.

Assuming a second wave the travel industry as a whole has just started into this current reality. A return to normal can’t be envisioned until quarantine practice ends. That may still be a year out.

I hope not. But like I said there is no chance of normalcy until quarantine practices end not just here but around the globe.

Yes you are absolutely correct, I did not factor that in as that will play a role. I suppose it will also largely depend on other country's restrictions as well. But I do still believe it will not deter the willingness for people to want to travel again by air. It may delay it, but not deter, and those restrictions will slowly be lifted. When, will be dependant on the severity, or lack of, a second wave etc. But yes you brought up a great point about the isolation period.

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

With all due respect, and considering I know nothing about you and your personal situation, this sounds like an opinion from the perspective of a person with a good income, strong personal finances and a job to still go to. I agree with you that people don't WANT their way of life changed, but very few people are fortunate enough to have a choice. Most North Americans were in a precarious financial position before this all happened. For years now in Canada experts and analysts have been sounding the warning about our personal debt levels, which on average are about 50% more than our annual income before tax. I read an article recently suggesting that in the US, the poverty rate could increase by 50%. How many people were living paycheck to paycheck before unemployment suddenly skyrocketed? A huge number of the middle class are likely to find themselves in real financial trouble. And if you think that for some reason Canada is immune or will recover more quickly, RSM issued a report last month that forecasted that Canada's economic recovery will be more slow than that of the US due to a number of factors.
As a person with no non-mortgage debt and still gainfully employed, making multiple times more than the average Canadian, it would be very easy for me to sit here, viewing this topic through only that lens and find myself unable to imagine why people wouldn't travel in the absence of covid. Unfortunately though, I think covid is going to have long term, devastating effects on huge numbers of the lower middle class. Selfishly, I want air travel to return to pre covid levels immediately as it benefits all pilots, even those not employed by airlines. But I'm not so sure that it will, and I'm not so sure that it would even be a good thing if it did. I mean, I hope people will take this as a wakeup call to not live beyond their means. But hey, they obviously didn't bother before, so maybe they will not have learned. You may end up correct after all.

Yes shimmy thats a good point, however a big reason for people to go into debt has to do with simply being able to justify spending money and paying it back later. I think there will be a lot of people who will justify going into their credit to travel once again for want of getting away from where they have had to be isolated to. But still a very good point and you're correct, while I'm in an ok position financially, I do know a fair amount who aren't, including many in my condo building who are jobless. What has resonated with me about our elevator chats etc is how they all make comments that when everything opens, they are getting out of dodge and flying off to here or there. I was a bit surprised. I also think there are still a more than enough people who can afford to travel regardless and will certainly do so.

[rudder]

You are right it is not same but both the 1983 and 1992 downturns resulted in about 5 years of lost hiring.

The current situation is unprecedented so your guess is as good as mine but it is IMO never wise to ignore history.

In any case, as always hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Hiring cycles were:

1973-1974
1978-1980
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2008
2010-2020

Avg break between cycles was 4-5 years and for the most part coincided with recession in the economic cycle.

The last decade been an anomaly. Hopefully the length of this recession will be an anomaly as well.

[mixturerich]

I think people saying it’s going to be a quick recovery are ignoring all the CEO’s, economists, and scientists saying it’s going to be a U-shaped recovery. Which means slow.

Has anyone reputable expressed any optimism for a V-shaped economic recovery? If anyone has please let us know.

Given the transmission rate of the virus, I don’t really believe a fast recovery is even possible, no matter what you do.

[RippleRock]

This recovery, or not, will be driven by our Governments response. Full stop. Six months of this virus has given us enough knowledge to formulate a plan that DOESN"T continue locking down the healthy. The healthy and young are not at risk. Yes they can absolutely spread it, but if those they spread it to are also healthy, the life-risk is minimal, barely worse than the Flu or common cold for most. Tru-dumb needs to get his head out of his rear and stop hiding behind Tam, who changes her mind regularly.

There is enough statistical data to show who is most affected, and why. If the Government and the Media continue to spread fear to the healthy, things will continue as is. If the focus is shifted to isolating and securing the elderly (mostly in long term care facilities), the vulnerable (diabetics, lung disease patients or those with other underlying illnesses that could be exacerbated by Covid) and allow the rest of us to continue on with our lives, things will get back to a relatively normal state. We would develop a degree of herd immunity until a vaccine is available---if it ever is. There is no reason why a couple in their 20's 30's or 40's, with or without children, couldn't travel unrestricted, anywhere. They should fear nothing.

Humanity has survived just fine over the last 100,000 years. We have evolved as a species over an extremely protracted time to fight off infection and develop a complex system of fighting viruses. It took until 2019 to change course ---180 degrees--- and lock down the healthy. We don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving long term if we fight Mother Nature's plan for developing AND maintaining a strong "species wide" immune system. Head out with a mask and gloves, spewing Purell everywhere if it makes you feel better, but you had better know that you will be sicker than a dog for months when you stop. Don't screw with your immune system. It needs daily exercise, just like you do.

If you're religious, your God will ensure you get Covid or not as he pleases, you will have no say.

[truedude]

I think people saying it’s going to be a quick recovery are ignoring all the CEO’s, economists, and scientists saying it’s going to be a U-shaped recovery. Which means slow.

Has anyone reputable expressed any optimism for a V-shaped economic recovery? If anyone has please let us know.

Given the transmission rate of the virus, I don’t really believe a fast recovery is even possible, no matter what you do.

When I say quick recovery, I don't mean full recovery. I mean, a hell of a lot better than 25% of normal capacity. Yes, we caused enormous self inflicted economic damage. To me, this is insane. I don't think we will be back to crazy hiring anytime soon; but I would love to see all those laid off back in a flight deck sooner than later, and I think traffic will recover quicker than the worst case scenarios that have been presented. Maybe I am wrong. Some days it feels that way. But others, it is obvious people are sick and tired of all this.

[red 5]

Well said ripple rock

[RippleRock]

My biggest worry affecting recovery is that "herd immunity" is our only guaranteed saviour. We NEED this virus to run through the population to attain it. Social distancing prevents natural transmission slowing naturally attained herd immunity and is absolutely crushing our economic engine.

So what is the gameplan??? Social distance until a vaccine arrives? It may never come, so the current economic plan has an unlimited social "bill", and is unending??

That isn't remotely realistic. That isn't a plan.

[daedalusx]

My biggest worry affecting recovery is that "herd immunity" is our only guaranteed saviour. We NEED this virus to run through the population to attain it. Social distancing prevents natural transmission slowing naturally attained herd immunity and is absolutely crushing our economic engine.

So what is the gameplan??? Social distance until a vaccine arrives? It may never come, so the current economic plan has an unlimited social "bill", and is unending??

That isn't remotely realistic. That isn't a plan.

You're right.
It's been 17 years and still no SARS vaccine on sight.
Not only the vaccine may never come - it also may never be truly effective, ie: the yearly flu vaccine.
Also rushing and pushing experimental drugs on a very diverse population ... has a risk of side effects and diminished immune response (Tamiflu fiasco, Polio vaccine causing paralysis in Africa, etc)

[Rockie]

The best plan would be to isolate all the morons, but that’s not possible either.

[altiplano]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

[Rockie]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.

[altiplano]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.

Suck it Rickie.