The Return to Normal?

[dumbbell daddy]

This recovery, or not, will be driven by our Governments response. Full stop. Six months of this virus has given us enough knowledge to formulate a plan that DOESN"T continue locking down the healthy. The healthy and young are not at risk. Yes they can absolutely spread it, but if those they spread it to are also healthy, the life-risk is minimal, barely worse than the Flu or common cold for most. Tru-dumb needs to get his head out of his rear and stop hiding behind Tam, who changes her mind regularly.

There is enough statistical data to show who is most affected, and why. If the Government and the Media continue to spread fear to the healthy, things will continue as is. If the focus is shifted to isolating and securing the elderly (mostly in long term care facilities), the vulnerable (diabetics, lung disease patients or those with other underlying illnesses that could be exacerbated by Covid) and allow the rest of us to continue on with our lives, things will get back to a relatively normal state. We would develop a degree of herd immunity until a vaccine is available---if it ever is. There is no reason why a couple in their 20's 30's or 40's, with or without children, couldn't travel unrestricted, anywhere. They should fear nothing.

Humanity has survived just fine over the last 100,000 years. We have evolved as a species over an extremely protracted time to fight off infection and develop a complex system of fighting viruses. It took until 2019 to change course ---180 degrees--- and lock down the healthy. We don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving long term if we fight Mother Nature's plan for developing AND maintaining a strong "species wide" immune system. Head out with a mask and gloves, spewing Purell everywhere if it makes you feel better, but you had better know that you will be sicker than a dog for months when you stop. Don't screw with your immune system. It needs daily exercise, just like you do.

If you're religious, your God will ensure you get Covid or not as he pleases, you will have no say.

Great post!

[co-joe]

Hiring cycles were:

1973-1974
1978-1980
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2008
2010-2020

Avg break between cycles was 4-5 years and for the most part coincided with recession in the economic cycle.

The last decade been an anomaly. Hopefully the length of this recession will be an anomaly as well.

Just curious, how many of those cycles was the Air Canada family 1500 pilots short of a full roster prior to the end? I've really only been around for 2 almost 3 of those cycles and I can't ever remember the main driving force behind hiring in our industry (AC) being that short of pilots in my time. I still think that long forecasted "pilot shortage" was actually just beginning and when normal comes back we are going to need a boat load of people.

Or I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...

[Rockie]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1117509">1117509</a> time=<a href="tel:1590370107">1590370107</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=altiplano post_id=<a href="tel:1117495">1117495</a> time=<a href="tel:1590365190">1590365190</a> user_id=3052]
The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.
[/quote]

Suck it Rickie.
[/quote]

Haha. Come on, you have to admit you walked yourself right into it.

With the US, Russia and Brazil (the new epicentre...congrats) death tolls climbing and health care infrastructure collapsing don’t you think the evidence is already strongly against this herd immunity nonsense promoted by some people? Watch the next couple of months in these places to see why the plan floated by Ripplerock and others is not supported by professionals who actually know what they’re talking about. It is frightening how many people take pandemic advice from an internet troll who doesn’t even pretend to any relèvent qualifications.

But I do agree with you about hastily developed vaccines. I’d much rather wear a mask or stand a bit apart for the next year and a half than inject some rushed out cocktail from Trumpland. Little better than bleach as far as I’m concerned.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/beach-cro ... -1.5582697

[RippleRock]

Rockie, I've flown with you. I have had hours long conversations with you. I found you quite close minded and opinionated. From what I've read on here, you're no different.

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown" "social distancing" insanity if you wish, but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans. Few if any stand back and look at the big picture as it isn't their forte. The only exposure most have had to a Pandemic has been in second year "medical history 205". They are champions of the "zero deaths" concept which is totally unrealistic in a complex scenario that is presenting itself here.

History will be our biggest teacher. Hindsight will be 20/20, it always is. There are obviously huge errors being made that will be written about for decades. The most obvious of which will be the neglect in the early months in the long term care homes. They should have been the first isolated. The death toll would have been half if this was done. Someone needs to be held accountable.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance. Humanity is being extremely naïve in thinking that they are smarter than Mother Nature's "tried and true, herd immunity".

We are not advanced enough in the medical field to "redesign" and usurp natures way of taking care of its creatures genetic health and makeup. It's again naïve and arrogant to think otherwise. For that we will all pay. Rockie, go ahead and advocate JT's "spastic" inconsistent and directionless reactionary shutdown, and the spewing of massive amounts of tax dollars at the problem. Until he and his Provincial counterparts find a positive, definite exit strategy that doesn't include locking down healthy people with perfectly functioning immune systems and continues an undefined course hoping for a "Miracle vaccine", this "closed-for-business police state" will continue on it's mad course toward economic ruin. We aren't that far off at this rate.

[goldeneagle]

but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans.

Pretty sure most of those medical professionals would suggest an airline pilot is just a glorified bus driver....

[RippleRock]

but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans.

Pretty sure most of those medical professionals would suggest an airline pilot is just a glorified bus driver....

Yes, I'm sure. There are thousands of Doctors that are promoting herd immunity. Most are smarter than you and I combined.

Their voices are being actively subdued.

[mbav8r]

Rockie, I've flown with you. I have had hours long conversations with you. I found you quite close minded and opinionated. From what I've read on here, you're no different.

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown" "social distancing" insanity if you wish, but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans. Few if any stand back and look at the big picture as it isn't their forte. The only exposure most have had to a Pandemic has been in second year "medical history 205". They are champions of the "zero deaths" concept which is totally unrealistic in a complex scenario that is presenting itself here.

History will be our biggest teacher. Hindsight will be 20/20, it always is. There are obviously huge errors being made that will be written about for decades. The most obvious of which will be the neglect in the early months in the long term care homes. They should have been the first isolated. The death toll would have been half if this was done. Someone needs to be held accountable.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance. Humanity is being extremely naïve in thinking that they are smarter than Mother Nature's "tried and true, herd immunity".

We are not advanced enough in the medical field to "redesign" and usurp natures way of taking care of its creatures genetic health and makeup. It's again naïve and arrogant to think otherwise. For that we will all pay. Rockie, go ahead and advocate JT's "spastic" inconsistent and directionless reactionary shutdown, and the spewing of massive amounts of tax dollars at the problem. Until he and his Provincial counterparts find a positive, definite exit strategy that doesn't include locking down healthy people with perfectly functioning immune systems and continues an undefined course hoping for a "Miracle vaccine", this "closed-for-business police state" will continue on it's mad course toward economic ruin. We aren't that far off at this rate.

Just curious, because clearly you haven’t budged, how did herd immunity work for the Spanish flu? Estimate of 50 to 100 million dead, majority healthy people during the second wave, I’m mean of the tens of thousands of years the species has evolved, 100 years ago might as well be yesterday, is 50 million deaths ok for your freedom to go out without restriction or business to carry on unrestricted.
Have you yourself gone out to test your theory? Licked a few doorknobs, in the name of science?
We have learned from history, do some reading on past pandemics, the one constant I see is the lockdown, distancing or some version of it.
Anyhow, easing of restrictions are on going and we shall see how that pans out but my sensibilities tell me, it’s too soon but what do I know, I’m just listening to the experts.
Care to comment on Brazil’s method, seems they went the way you advocated, I see how well that’s turning out.

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

The best plan would be to isolate all the morons, but that’s not possible either.

I'm with you with this one!

[Rockie]

Rockie, I've flown with you

I doubt it.

I found you quite close minded and opinionated.

Really? How much has your opinion changed in the course of this conversation?

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown"

Never have, and neither have the health professionals. Try reading some stuff from normal news outlets without your shit-coloured glasses on.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance.

I can't believe this still needs to be said, but the goal here is to not kill millions of people while attaining a level of immunity.

Yes, I'm sure. There are thousands of Doctors that are promoting herd immunity. Most are smarter than you and I combined.

Their voices are being actively subdued.

QAnon strikes again....

['97 Tercel]

Rockie, I've flown with you

I doubt it.

I found you quite close minded and opinionated.

Really? How much has your opinion changed in the course of this conversation?

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown"

Never have, and neither have the health professionals. Try reading some stuff from normal news outlets without your shit-coloured glasses on.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance.

I can't believe this still needs to be said, but the goal here is to not kill millions of people while attaining a level of immunity.

Yes, I'm sure. There are thousands of Doctors that are promoting herd immunity. Most are smarter than you and I combined.

Their voices are being actively subdued.

QAnon strikes again....

we have no choice but to do what we're doing anyway

This thread is like watching NBC and Fox talk about each other.

[shimmydampner]

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown" "social distancing" insanity if you wish, but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans. Few if any stand back and look at the big picture as it isn't their forte. The only exposure most have had to a Pandemic has been in second year "medical history 205". They are champions of the "zero deaths" concept which is totally unrealistic in a complex scenario that is presenting itself here.

History will be our biggest teacher. Hindsight will be 20/20, it always is. There are obviously huge errors being made that will be written about for decades. The most obvious of which will be the neglect in the early months in the long term care homes. They should have been the first isolated. The death toll would have been half if this was done. Someone needs to be held accountable.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance. Humanity is being extremely naïve in thinking that they are smarter than Mother Nature's "tried and true, herd immunity".

We are not advanced enough in the medical field to "redesign" and usurp natures way of taking care of its creatures genetic health and makeup. It's again naïve and arrogant to think otherwise. For that we will all pay. Rockie, go ahead and advocate JT's "spastic" inconsistent and directionless reactionary shutdown, and the spewing of massive amounts of tax dollars at the problem. Until he and his Provincial counterparts find a positive, definite exit strategy that doesn't include locking down healthy people with perfectly functioning immune systems and continues an undefined course hoping for a "Miracle vaccine", this "closed-for-business police state" will continue on it's mad course toward economic ruin. We aren't that far off at this rate.

Please explain by what metric herd immunity "has done us extremely well as a species." If, as you say "history will be our biggest teacher" then maybe you could explain how the Black Death was a riotous success story for pre-vaccination herd immunity. Up to 200 million dead and up to 60% of Europe's population wiped out, yet the plague still exists today. (Interestingly, it is during this time that quarantine and isolation were invented and they are credited with the eventual end of the plague, along with improvements in sanitation and hygiene and perhaps the Great Fire of London.) I'm no expert on pandemics, but since you're presenting a lot of opinion as fact, maybe you could enlighten us with historical examples of a naturally developed herd immunity to a potentially fatal virus that did not involve isolation or inoculation and didn't result in huge numbers of deaths. I'm genuinely curious because it seems like your argument boils down to simply advocating for natural selection over modern medicine and science.

[JoeShithe]

Maybe consider this..

The planet is the patient, humans are the virus and coronavirus is the vaccine.

The federal deficit is estimated now at $186 Billion up from $28 Billion. Provincial and territorial deficits are estimated at $63 Billion combined. Municipalities are running serious deficits.

This is spending, who knows what the tax shortfall will be.

I’m sympathetic but realistic. It’s past the point of recovery for either the economy or coronavirus.

I’m going back to my treehouse!

[2R]

Hiring cycles were:

1973-1974
1978-1980
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2008
2010-2020

Avg break between cycles was 4-5 years and for the most part coincided with recession in the economic cycle.

The last decade been an anomaly. Hopefully the length of this recession will be an anomaly as well.

Or I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...

Does Quoting lines from the movie Airplane count as aviation content ?

The Planet survived the Dinosaurs , it will survive Mankind . I just hope the other species we abuse do not evolve and dominate us . Although if we evolved from apes , why are the Apes still here ?
I feel sorry for the Monkeys and Apes that are being used to test the vaccines on . Could we pay poor people , who need a job to do it ? Or maybe some of those billionaire's that want to microchip and enforce sterilization would volunteer , or be voluntold

[Jimmyh787]

A recent study from the CDC based on actual Covid-19 data.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

[mixturerich]

Maybe consider this..

The planet is the patient, humans are the virus and coronavirus is the vaccine.

The federal deficit is estimated now at $186 Billion up from $28 Billion. Provincial and territorial deficits are estimated at $63 Billion combined. Municipalities are running serious deficits.

This is spending, who knows what the tax shortfall will be.

I’m sympathetic but realistic. It’s past the point of recovery for either the economy or coronavirus.

I’m going back to my treehouse!

There is no sugar-coating it...the numbers paint a grim picture. We are inevitably doomed to be stuck in a tug-of-war of economic damage vs health restrictions until a vaccine is available.

Say what you will about media hysteria, but people saw COVID hit Italy, Spain, and NYC the way it did, and they got spooked. The average modern human has low mental toughness and when they hear about refrigerator trucks for corpses, or overwhelmed hospitals, or the first-hand accounts from the frontline workers, they get frightened. It’s too late to come back from that. The pandemic has clearly scared people and it’s the fear that’s the most damaging part. Fear of death and dying, in small numbers or great numbers...it’s that innate fear that had people eating up all the media hysteria in the first place! Hello! That’s how they sell stories. They may exploit it, but it’s still there. It’s too bad people can’t be more tough, eh?

I think it’s obvious now that the world is going to change significantly because of this virus. This is a big chapter in history now, and this is only the beginning.

That said, do your best to enjoy the life you have, even if that means being away from aviation. We are all going to die one day. Sometimes we get sh*t thrown our way, but we can’t let it make us miserable. I believe that the more adaptable we can become, the happier we will be.

[47north]

Porter delays service until July 29th:


https://worldairlinenews.com/2020/05/26 ... o-july-29/

[780Pilot]

Porter delays service until July 29th:


https://worldairlinenews.com/2020/05/26 ... o-july-29/

The issue with Porter is a large % of their routes are to the US. Until the 14 day restriction is lifted I don't see Porter coming back.

[RippleRock]

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown" "social distancing" insanity if you wish, but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans. Few if any stand back and look at the big picture as it isn't their forte. The only exposure most have had to a Pandemic has been in second year "medical history 205". They are champions of the "zero deaths" concept which is totally unrealistic in a complex scenario that is presenting itself here.

History will be our biggest teacher. Hindsight will be 20/20, it always is. There are obviously huge errors being made that will be written about for decades. The most obvious of which will be the neglect in the early months in the long term care homes. They should have been the first isolated. The death toll would have been half if this was done. Someone needs to be held accountable.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance. Humanity is being extremely naïve in thinking that they are smarter than Mother Nature's "tried and true, herd immunity".

We are not advanced enough in the medical field to "redesign" and usurp natures way of taking care of its creatures genetic health and makeup. It's again naïve and arrogant to think otherwise. For that we will all pay. Rockie, go ahead and advocate JT's "spastic" inconsistent and directionless reactionary shutdown, and the spewing of massive amounts of tax dollars at the problem. Until he and his Provincial counterparts find a positive, definite exit strategy that doesn't include locking down healthy people with perfectly functioning immune systems and continues an undefined course hoping for a "Miracle vaccine", this "closed-for-business police state" will continue on it's mad course toward economic ruin. We aren't that far off at this rate.

Please explain by what metric herd immunity "has done us extremely well as a species." If, as you say "history will be our biggest teacher" then maybe you could explain how the Black Death was a riotous success story for pre-vaccination herd immunity. Up to 200 million dead and up to 60% of Europe's population wiped out, yet the plague still exists today. (Interestingly, it is during this time that quarantine and isolation were invented and they are credited with the eventual end of the plague, along with improvements in sanitation and hygiene and perhaps the Great Fire of London.) I'm no expert on pandemics, but since you're presenting a lot of opinion as fact, maybe you could enlighten us with historical examples of a naturally developed herd immunity to a potentially fatal virus that did not involve isolation or inoculation and didn't result in huge numbers of deaths. I'm genuinely curious because it seems like your argument boils down to simply advocating for natural selection over modern medicine and science.

How do you explain our extremely effective and complex immune system? Unless “aliens” created it for us, it was developed by eons of exposure. Those that survived propagated the species. It’s grade 8 biology bud.

We have to accept that living on this planet may require on occasion, that Darwin’s Theory be exercised.

It’s not Rocket Surgery. Not surprised my logic is lost on some when I consider the demographic of this site.

Enjoy your lockdown.

[shimmydampner]

Not surprised my logic is lost on some

Neither am I, considering that your argument is simplistic to the point of being fatalist and ignores any science beyond basic evolution.
You should get together with some anti-vaxxers and go lick some American doorknobs. Hell, isolation notwithstanding there's still plenty of Ebola afoot in DRC (considering herd immunity hasn't kicked in yet) if you want to get really strong.

['97 Tercel]

Enjoy your lockdown.

Thanks bud

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

Not surprised my logic is lost on some

Neither am I, considering that your argument is simplistic to the point of being fatalist and ignores any science beyond basic evolution.
You should get together with some anti-vaxxers and go lick some American doorknobs. Hell, isolation notwithstanding there's still plenty of Ebola afoot in DRC (considering herd immunity hasn't kicked in yet) if you want to get really strong.

now you are comparing ebola to covoid-19. Two different types of diseases..Get your facts straight before calling people anti-vaxxers.

[shimmydampner]

I made no comparison at all.
Do you know what a comparison is?
Also, I didn't call anyone an anti-vaxxer.
I guess reading comprehension is hard. But by all means, tell us how to best fix this pesky pandemic issue.

[Aircygnet]

Many years long time reader, first time poster. I just wanted to add my perspective that I had gleamed from a family of health care workers.

Regarding herd immunity- that only is a valid strategy if you know the provided duration of immunity for an individual after infection. Some virus are longer vs shorter duration. No virologist or immunologist knows this value for covid since the data is still mostly missing. Also, if the virus mutates, any previous immunity is either decreased or lost.

The other emphasis is the death rate which can be argued is relatively low vs other quality short live viruses but potentially higher that regular flu. Problem with that emphasis is that A) the flu values are over a period of a year whereas covid has done most of that work since March until now. B) it kills mostly the same demographics as the flu BUT it can also affect longterm those other demographics which are relatively young and healthy. People have had heart issues, strokes, kidney failure (some requiring long term dialysis), severe deterioration of their lungs, muscle atrophying (due to being bedridden), etc which requires long term rehabilitation and can affect that person for a lifetime. Those effects are ignored by the statistics.

Also, the lockdown was done not necessarily to protect the population, but to prevent our health system from resembling those of other countries that was slow to do so (i.e. Italy, new york). It was mainly a means to provide time to the health system to catch up and prepare- cause they were caught with their pants by their ankles and everything hanging. Also, even though mostly forgotten since covid is a drama queen, people still go to clinics/hospitals for ALL those other reasons- missing limbs, gunshot wounds, tumors, paper cuts.

Sorry for the long winded post.

[Rockie]

How do you explain our extremely effective and complex immune system? Unless “aliens” created it for us, it was developed by eons of exposure. Those that survived propagated the species. It’s grade 8 biology bud.

We have to accept that living on this planet may require on occasion, that Darwin’s Theory be exercised.

It’s not Rocket Surgery. Not surprised my logic is lost on some when I consider the demographic of this site.

The human immune system was achieved at great cost. Science - when people are intelligent enough to listen to it - lowers that cost when something new comes along.

Speaking of natural selection and Darwin however, there’s an experiment/award contest going on right now in the US which should start producing results in just a few weeks. Unfortunately this experiment/award contest is completely uncontained and even people too smart to take part in it directly will end up infected and dying.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/crowds-pack-m ... d=70866157

Of course the science is already known and this is an excellent article explaining it.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirusr0/

[ALPApolicy]

This Breitbart article explains that 96% of Italy’s Coronavirus fatalities had at least one other chronic illness, and the average age of those fatalities was 81 (Canada’s average life expectancy for men BTW), and only 1.1% of the fatalities were people under 50.

Instead of property quarantining (and caring for!) the elderly, especially those in LTC’s, our best idea was a prolonged shutdown (and destruction) of our economy.

Brilliant!

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/0 ... illnesses/