Airlines need to shut down to survive

[Gilles Hudicourt]

The blanket quarantine and travel restrictions that the Federal government of Canada and certain Provincial governments are imposing on travel in Canada are bleeding the airlines, the major airports and most of the Aviation and Travel Industry to death. This is not sustainable. Airlines that maintained or restarted flight schedules did not expect these travel restrictions to be extended so long and not knowing how long they would be imposed for. The end is not in sight.

Airlines, Airports and Nav-Canada cannot possibly be operated at 10% of capacity for any length of time and be expected to survive without any financial help whatsoever.

The Government of Canada seems to be waiting for the Airlines, the Airports and even Nav-Canada to seek protection under CCAA before taking any action.

The sensible thing would be for ALL Canadian Airlines to shut down and go into deep hibernation in order to conserve liquidity until such time as all the travel restrictions are lifted. Like Porter Airlines did.

That will probably get their attention.


#TimeToTravel
#NACC
#ATAC
#CAC
#IATA
#ICAO
#ALPA
#ACPA
#UNIFOR
#CUPE
#NATA
#HAC
#CBAA
#IAMAW
#TEAMSTERS
#PSCA
#AIAC

[98 Corolla]

Uh no we're fine.

[Fanblade]

The blanket quarantine and travel restrictions that the Federal government of Canada and certain Provincial governments are imposing on travel in Canada are bleeding the airlines, the major airports and most of the Aviation and Travel Industry to death. This is not sustainable. Airlines that maintained or restarted flight schedules did not expect these travel restrictions to be extended so long and not knowing how long they would be imposed for. The end is not in sight.

Airlines, Airports and Nav-Canada cannot possibly be operated at 10% of capacity for any length of time and be expected to survive without any financial help whatsoever.

The Government of Canada seems to be waiting for the Airlines, the Airports and even Nav-Canada to seek protection under CCAA before taking any action.

The sensible thing would be for ALL Canadian Airlines to shut down and go into deep hibernation in order to conserve liquidity until such time as all the travel restrictions are lifted. Like Porter Airlines did.

That will probably get their attention.

Gilles,

News outlets are reporting the CDC in the US dropped recommending quarantine after travel quietly on Friday.

https://www.afar.com/magazine/should-yo ... nt-have-to

Here in Canuckistan.

Aug 14,

https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-cana ... ravel.html

Looks like things are starting to move slowly.

I think.....fingers crossed.

[termerair]

From the link above...

To date, the Government of Canada is not aware of any cases attributed to passenger-to-passenger transmission on a flight to or from Canada.

Yet they decided to shut down an entire industry... Why don't they simply test everybody who enters the country/province? Some countries have decided to go in that direction without any major spread of the cases... I am thinking about Greece where they randomly test the incoming passengers. Canada could do the same and even quarantine the people until the results are out (it doesn't take more than 24h to get a result...). This would help the airline and hotel industries!

T.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

https://airlinecouncil.ca/wp-content/up ... 020-EN.pdf

State of the Industry and Global Action
Several months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact on Canada’s major airlines, our employees, and
the communities we serve has been devastating. Tens of thousands of employees have been laid off,
service has been reduced or eliminated, and billions of dollars in aircraft are parked as carriers continuously
try to rationalize service and fleet size.
Despite these challenges, our members are doing all they can to maintain operations and remain viable in
the face of a 90% to 95% drop in revenue, with no clear time frame for recovery. NACC member carriers
are continuing to invest millions of dollars in ongoing cleaning, sterilization and operational procedures to
protect passenger and employee health, and we continue to work with Transport Canada to implement
regulatory measures in response to the pandemic.

https://airlinecouncil.ca/wp-content/up ... 3Jun20.pdf

The impact of the pandemic has been devastating on member carriers. Very briefly, after many years of growth
Air Canada is currently operating at approximately 5% of operations year over year and has laid off over 20,000
employees or more than 50% of its workforce, while reducing its global network from 220 to 46 destinations.
Air Transat suspended all operations completely as of April 1, grounding their entire fleet and laying off 85% of
their 5,000 employees. They are now cautiously initiating a gradual resumption of a small percentage of their
flight and tour operating activities in late July.
Prior to the pandemic, WestJet employed 14,000 people, operating 700-plus flights daily. They have now parked
two-thirds of their fleet and their workforce has been reduced by 9,000 as they now operate about 100 flights a
day, carrying less than 10% the number of guests they would normally carry.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

Ok, Let's talk about Air Canada. They now have a fleet of 191 aircraft according to Planespotters. In addition, the aircraft of two other airlines, Jazz and Sky Regional have 140 aircraft between them, aircraft that fly only for Air Canada. That is a grand total of 331 aircaft that are flown by and for Air Canada.

Right now, 43 of those 331 aircraft are in the air. That is 13% of the fleet.

A few of those aircraft are flying cargo profitably, and some of the domestic routes are doing reasonably good, but the vast majority of the International flights have dismal load factors. A buddy of mine was a passenger recently on a AC 777 flight from Japan to Canada, and he told me there were about a dozen passengers on board. Anybody who thinks that Westjet, Air Transat, Sunwing and Porter are going to fail while Air Canada is going to weather this crisis with flying colours is a fool. We are all in the same boat.

The only carriers that may be unaffected by this crisis are the all cargo airlines and the operators that exclusively service the isolated communities....

[Gino Under]

100% in agreement Gilles.

I've been saying this for months. Hybernation is the only option for Canadian airlines. International travel will be slow to recover and probably the 2nd last sector to show any signs of improvement. No airline in Canada, NOT EVEN AIR CANADA, can survive this pandemic at 15-25% ops and minimal load factors.

Some might want to wake up to reality soon. Covid restrictions applied by the Canadian Government apply to everyone in Canada. The airlines are doing their best to comply but see only a relaxation of those restrictions as being financially beneficial TO THEM. Well, what about the citizens of this country?
I heard somewhere that WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER. What? Except the airlines???

Whatever side of the argument you're on, ALL OF THIS SUCKS.

Gino Under

[trey kule]

From a strategic standpoint, if one considers that the market is going to shrink drastically for a few years, it might be that one company, or maybe two, want their competitors to fail. A bigger percentage of a smaller market for them.

That actually may be the way it will naturally go, as there may simply not be enough business to support many companies at reduced size.

If I was operating a cargo only company, I would be concerned that big red is eyeing my business.

I am not sure everyone shutting down would not hurt the industry even more, but I say that without a shred of evidence.

[GoHomeLeg]

At the moment, Canadians are spending thousands of dollars right here at home at restaurants and local tourism sights instead of spending that money in other countries boosting the local economies. Money staying here in Canada will rush to the airline's when things open up.

[alkaseltzer]

Ban the foreign A380s coming into our country.

[tbaylx]

Ban the foreign A380s coming into our country.

yeah, that'll fix it. IF only aircanada could operate the middle east runs with no competition that would solve everyone's issues.

[Dh8Classic]

Other airlines will come in and pick up the pieces. Might give some opportunities to those shut out of the hiring by the big three(or given a seniority number way behind others).

Maybe Flair will become the new place to be. I suggest picking up cheap 777's and a variety of Airbus types. I suppose a cargo section with MD-11's would be nice to protect against pandemics.

[Gino Under]

Assuming Canadian airline survivals will be plural, not singular, not one survivor will have the dollars to “pick up the pieces” as some like to suggest. I seriously doubt whoever comes through this pandemic at any measure of their former self would expand at a great rate by gorging on industry remains.

Following this pandemic:
Airfares will rise.
Not what the consumer wants.
Airports have decided repairs and improvements will be paid for by airline passengers.
Not what the consumer wants.
A number of Canadian airports are not in compliance with ICAO runway standards and some runways will need to be extended. (Could be good news for Porter)
Taxpayers will not be happy and passengers will be greeted by another Airport Tax.
Again, not what the consumer wants.

No. Any Canadian airline surviving this pandemic will struggle to survive. Load factors will recover at a snail’s pace.

Gino Under
P.S.
It will be 3 to 5 years before we see anything close to the old normal.

[fish4life]

This headline should say “Airport operators should have AIF’s capped with no increases for airlines to survive”

[Gilles Hudicourt]

This headline should say “Airport operators should have AIF’s capped with no increases for airlines to survive”

The airports are going bankrupt too!

https://westernaviationnews.com/2020/08 ... ee-months/

https://beta-ctvnews-ca.cdn.ampproject. ... 42206.html

https://edmontonjournal.com/business/lo ... -19-levels

https://www-cbc-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/c ... /1.5653821

https://www.torontopearson.com/en/corpo ... 2020-07-14

[trey kule]

That is rather troubling, but I think there was a lot of fat there to trim.particularity Pearson which has been gouging every place it can for years. The party is over, and raising departure fees, parking fees, tenant rents will be counterproductive in getting going again

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

That is rather troubling, but I think there was a lot of fat there to trim.particularity Pearson which has been gouging every place it can for years. The party is over, and raising departure fees, parking fees, tenant rents will be counterproductive in getting going again

I wish that was true!! Aren't they all just passing the cost to the consumers...??? How many fees and taxes will be added under the covid banner. Not what the consumer wants...

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

That is rather troubling, but I think there was a lot of fat there to trim.particularity Pearson which has been gouging every place it can for years. The party is over, and raising departure fees, parking fees, tenant rents will be counterproductive in getting going again

I wish that was true!! Aren't they all just passing the cost to the consumers...??? How many fees and taxes will be added under the covid banner. Not what the consumer wants...

Not only in aviation. My cheeky dentist has managed to start charging a 15$ fee not reimbursable by insurance for "air purity measures" LOL

[Cappo1]

https://airlinecouncil.ca/wp-content/up ... 020-EN.pdf

Air Transat suspended all operations completely as of April 1, grounding their entire fleet and laying off 85% of
their 5,000 employees.

Air Transat suspended all operations as of April 1, because if they kept going they would have been in chapter 11 and they knew they did not have enough capital to sustain. If you doubt this then check the continually plummeting stock . Today you are at $5.28. Transat resumed flying in July only to have dismal loads which are bleeding the company dry. I think you must be very upset that your FCO , ATH and several other routes you are on will be transferred to Air Canada next week . Ironically, it now suits you to instigate all flying to cease . If you don't like that AC is flying now then you are not going to like receiving the news about our plans for TS in the future because the future does not include you . So about that coffee and the seniority list . I'm glad we are ACPA you are ALPA .

[Gilles Hudicourt]

I am astonished by the number of people who do not feel concerned about this situation.

It reminds of this movie where Jews are rounded up during WW-II by the Nazis to be shipped off to the death camps. When younger deportees want to organize some form of resistance, some others convince them that they are being shipped to work camps, to help in the nazi war effort, and that when the war is over that they will all go home.......

The longer this lasts, the more Airlines are going to downsize. They are going to lay off massively. What is left of aviation when Trudeau and Garneau are done with it will be but a shadow of its former self. All actors will raise prices to cover losses and costs and aviation will become prohibitively expensive, reducing the number of customers, even when Covid is over, if that ever happens.

The sale of Transat to Air Canada is is an issue that seems puny in my mind now. It’s a tooth ache when I have a gaping chest wound from a 12 gauge shotgun.

We are all in a sinking ship, and there are people, in the same sinking ship that are laughing at the colour of my lifevest.

Yes Samuel, or whatever your real name is, we are all going to a work camp where we will be housed and fed and you have nothing to fear......